Excellent post! You put camera sales nicely in perspective.Olympus and Panasonic need to take this seriously. And so does Sony and Fuji.
Taking the short term view, Sony FE, M4/3 and Fuji X still have a huge advantage in the MILC Wars, but do not underestimate Canon and Nikon's potential.
They haven't been competitive in the MILC market so far, but that was by choice. The day the two sleeping giants come out of their self induced coma, they will be a mighty force to reckon with.
Can anyone dispute any of these points?
Building a great MILC System isn't rocket science, especially when you jump in last, after everyone else has done all the hard work for you. You just see what works best, and copy it. Do it better if you can, but even if you can only do it "just as well" you will still be rewarded due to those four points above.
- They both have huge marketing muscle
- They both have plenty of engineering and design talent
- They both have the ability to execute well
- They both have HUGE installed bases of very brand loyal customers
Being the innovator isn't worth much today. The market always goes to who executes BEST, not to who did it first.
For the record, Canon didn't invent the camera. Toyota didn't invent the car. And Apple didn't invent the smartphone. In every case they were late arrivals, sometimes by decades. But all three became market leaders because they executed best.
I am very aware that M4/3 has the most complete lens catalog, Fuji has some outstanding lenses, and Sony has the unique advantage of having the only affordable full frame MILC system. Yes, they are affordable, because the only other full frame MILC camera is the Leica SL.
But if you take the long view (and you must do this if you believe MILC is here to stay, and not a passing fad) then you have to admit that Canon really CAN make great lenses, and should have no problem creating a few dozen good ones in the next several years. Their loyal fans will wait for them.
If Canon is smart, and I think they are, they will realize that their goal is to "sell cameras and lenses" and not just to "sell a lot of DSLRs only." They will build whatever customers want, not what they prefer to sell.
The truth is DSLR sales are in decline, and MILC sales are pretty much flat. Making it a bad business strategy to only produce the former and ignore the later. They need to be aggressively marketing BOTH.
A few short years ago DSLRs outsold MILC cameras five to one. Today DSLRs outsell MILC cameras two to one, but if current trends continue someday they might sell in equal numbers, and at some further time MILC could outsell DSLRs. They need to prepare for that possibility by having a strong presence in BOTH markets.
And before someone says "cannibalism" let me remind you that Apple KNEW that their iPhone would kill off their hugely successful iPod, but they released it anyway. They knew if they didn't kill the iPod, then someone else would. They knew they were better off if their iPods were replaced by their iPhones, rather than a competitor's smartphone.
This is called "forward thinking" and a sure sign of good management. And this is something most camera makers struggle with, even though most tech companies accept.
I think the time has come for Canon to get serious and shake their "Rebel" world with the M line. And as you said, given the huge marketing power of Canon, all other mirrorless camera makers could worry.
About Nikon, I'm not so confident they have a smart management right now. They made a lot of mistakes that probably made them loose a share of their user base.
Anyway, the two giants are going to put a big pressure for other mirrorless makers in the following years. Interesting times ahead!

