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The future of the digital camera market

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pacnwhobbyist

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I think we all remember the article published last year saying that a huge shakeout is coming and that the only companies left standing in the camera market will be Canon, Nikon, and Sony. But what about Pentax/Ricoh, Olympus, Panasonic, and Fujifilm? Do you think that they will still be around in a few years time (or at least in the business of selling cameras)? And if so, what underlying strengths do these smaller players in the camera market have that will allow them continue on despite the fierce headwinds in the industry right now? Or do you maybe think that one of the companies whose survival seems almost certain will have a catastrophic fall a la Kodak? Interested to hear everybody's thoughts.
 
Pentax is well known entity which is supposed to perish - for ten years at least, but they´re still alive. What does it mean? Anyway I will just wait. What else can we do...
 
pacnwhobbyist said:
I think we all remember the article published last year saying that a huge shakeout is coming and that the only companies left standing in the camera market will be Canon, Nikon, and Sony.
Click to expand...
controversy = page hits
Writers get far too much undeserved mind-attention. Buy what serves your needs and budget.
 
Olympus and Panasonic have the advantage of offering a fairly complete system for those of us wanting something smaller but still versatile. That advantage could disappear of Canon or Nikon decide to get serious about mirrorless cameras. Sony is already an alternative to m43.

For a lot of these companies making cameras seems to be a matter of corporate pride, kind of like a car company known for sedate sedans also making a sports car. There is a limit to how much money they will spend on pride but the limit seems to be higher for Japanese companies than ones here in the US where there is immense pressure to kill off any product line that is not making money this quarter.

Most of the second tier camera makers could take a middle route. Advances in sensor technology have slowed down considerably as have other areas of camera design. So they do not have to introduce new models as often to stay competitive. They could also not have as many models. Does Olympus really need 3 different SLR style cameras and 3 different m43 cameras without viewfinders? I expect to see some consolidation in their lineup and less frequent updates.

I would also expect many companies get out of the P&S market or quit making cameras entirely if that is all they make.

Things are changing too fast to make purchasing decisions based on long range predictions. Buy what you think will work best for you over the next few years, not what you think you will be using 10 or even 20 years from now. I bought into m43 since it seems like the best choice for me right now. But I am not even going to guess what I will be using 10 years from now. That would also be true if I used a FF SLR.
 
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I don't think any camera company knows "The future of the digital camera market". They have had to cope with large declines in sales and the threat that some product categories won't have a market in the future.

They need to find some product categories that will sell. How well they do at figuring out a viable strategy and executing it will have a big effect on who survives.

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I feel that most of the 2nd tier camera companies will survive by shrinking themselves to profitability. They will focus only on profitable models. I think one problem is that technology enhancements have slowed (while market hype has increased). To be successful, future replacement models will have to have substantial upgrades not ones that are marginal. In the interim, camera companies will focus on selling lenses to those who already own their cameras. I see these camera companies continuing to reduce the number of models and extending0 the time between upgrades. If they now upgrade once every year, it will become 2-3 years. Unless we see some huge innovation, camera sales will continue at a slower and slower pace.

As Smart Phone camera technology improves, lower end cameras may disappear. Everywhere I go, there are 3-4 more people with camera phones then with real cameras. This trend will continue to grow. If Apple and Samsung are not already the largest camera sales companies, they will be.

In addition to less camera manufacturers, there will be less and less camera retailers. Unless you are in a large city, you will be unable to see and feel camera models that you are considering for purchase. Consequently, more and more photo purchases will be done on the internet rather than retail brick and mortar stores.

The camera world is changing and it will continue to change further at an accelerating rate.
 
justmeMN said:
justmeMN said:
Olympus
Click to expand...
Olympus "forecast a fifth annual loss for the camera business" (Source: Bloomberg), but they continue to cling to that money-losing division. As long as stockholders allow them to do it, they will continue.
Click to expand...
I think a key factor is that for Olympus the camera market is something of pride. Olympus could likely stay very profitable just with its medical business but the camera division is really what defines the company in many peoples eyes and closing it would be a big loss of face to the execs.

I suspect that the same isn't true for companies like Sony and Panasonic, cameras have never been what defines those brands to the public and as a result I think the execs would be more willing to drop those divisions.
 
I'd say Nikon is most at risk since imaging is the largest share of their company. Maybe Photokina will help indicate Nikon's near-term plans: if another full-frame camera is introduced, but no high-end DX body, we might well conclude Nikon has no plans ever for a D300 replacement. We might also speculate Nikon may be trying to move existing users up to full-frame, which, in my opinion is risky. My prediction is Canon will remain "mainstream" while Nikon becomes more of an upscale niche company (like Leica) with a smaller market share in the future. That's assuming Nikon survives the downturn.

Pentax is such a small segment of Ricoh that I believe Pentax will be around for as long as they are part of Ricoh. Sony will probably surpass Nikon in market share (if Sony can finally settle on a lens mount and offer a broader range of lenses). Olympus, Panasonic? Who knows.
 
MoreorLess said:
justmeMN said:
MoreorLess said:
Olympus
Click to expand...
Olympus "forecast a fifth annual loss for the camera business" (Source: Bloomberg), but they continue to cling to that money-losing division. As long as stockholders allow them to do it, they will continue.
Click to expand...
I think a key factor is that for Olympus the camera market is something of pride. Olympus could likely stay very profitable just with its medical business but the camera division is really what defines the company in many peoples eyes and closing it would be a big loss of face to the execs.

I suspect that the same isn't true for companies like Sony and Panasonic, cameras have never been what defines those brands to the public and as a result I think the execs would be more willing to drop those divisions.
Click to expand...
Olympus has said that the research done by the camera division is critical for their medical division and that they have no plans to abandon it. However, that may just be smoke to pacify investors.
 
pacnwhobbyist said:
I think we all remember the article published last year saying that a huge shakeout is coming and that the only companies left standing in the camera market will be Canon, Nikon, and Sony. But what about Pentax/Ricoh, Olympus, Panasonic, and Fujifilm? Do you think that they will still be around in a few years time (or at least in the business of selling cameras)?
Click to expand...
Just this morning, I read a news item in Amateur Photographer magazine that said:

"Global shipments of mirrorless interchangeable-lens models reached 1.49 million units, with value rising to 60.7 billion yen - 40% up on a year earlier, according to Japan's Camera and Imaging Products Association."

This was referring to the first half of 2014. The value of all digital still camera shipments fell 16.4% in the same period.

The digital camera market is rapidly changing, but it certainly isn't shrinking at the rate that the film camera market was when companies such as Kodak disappeared. In fact, the MILC market is growing sufficiently fast that I can't see why any of the companies operating in that field should collapse in the immediate future.
 
People like cameras to be small yet to have good IQ.

People also seem to find M43 and aps-c good enough for casual (vacation,trips a.o.) shooting.

You need to be quite fanatic about your hobby lugging a big and heavy dslr around (not to mention lenses) when having a good time (when photography is secondary).

In my opinion M43 was an eyeopener for many people as companies as well.

There will be big dominant brands like Canon and Nikon, but also several small ones. I assume there also will be more cooperation between brands, fusions even.

What Olympus and Fuji have accomplished in just a few years is quite impressive. The landscape changed quite quickly.

Photography will imho be more appraoched from the experience (old school controls and lightweight bodies with primes and small zooms) of the user.

If good enough IQ goes with 1/3 of the weight and size you're on to something.

Travel is an important factor (at least for me). Travelling with 7D and lenses is not my idea of fun. Strolling throught the streets and musea of Paris with my Fuji X100 is great!

People travel more and further, so this may be an important factor.

What companies will do is for the major part up to what their core business is.

--
Cheers Mike
 
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digitallollygag said:
I'd say Nikon is most at risk since imaging is the largest share of their company. Maybe Photokina will help indicate Nikon's near-term plans: if another full-frame camera is introduced, but no high-end DX body, we might well conclude Nikon has no plans ever for a D300 replacement. We might also speculate Nikon may be trying to move existing users up to full-frame, which, in my opinion is risky. My prediction is Canon will remain "mainstream" while Nikon becomes more of an upscale niche company (like Leica) with a smaller market share in the future. That's assuming Nikon survives the downturn.

Pentax is such a small segment of Ricoh that I believe Pentax will be around for as long as they are part of Ricoh. Sony will probably surpass Nikon in market share (if Sony can finally settle on a lens mount and offer a broader range of lenses). Olympus, Panasonic? Who knows.
Click to expand...
I think all camera makers are at risk. The new smartphone sensors are excellent and the number of DSLR and mirrorless cameras sold are going to decline in volume further imho. Sony is innovating themselves practically out of business at the current rate with back lit and curved sensors which will change the bodies and lenses we work with for photography. The Lytro type multi focus objective cameras will probably become more popular. Who knows what this will look like in ten years but I think large cameras and even big lenses are done for in the long term except for very high end photography.

As volume decreases for stand alone cameras, shareholders of these companies are going to demand that loss divisions be closed or prices are going to have to increase for them to be profitable. Canon, Nikon and Fuji are preparing themselves now trying to evolve into other lines of business.
 
The North American and European markets are mature. Many people there already own a camera that is good enough for their needs. Future growth in camera sales may depend on whether customers in Asia, South America and Africa decide that they need something beyond smartphones.

There is some irony in having this discussion on an English language forum.
 
drj3 said:
MoreorLess said:
justmeMN said:
drj3 said:
Olympus
Click to expand...
Olympus "forecast a fifth annual loss for the camera business" (Source: Bloomberg), but they continue to cling to that money-losing division. As long as stockholders allow them to do it, they will continue.
Click to expand...
I think a key factor is that for Olympus the camera market is something of pride. Olympus could likely stay very profitable just with its medical business but the camera division is really what defines the company in many peoples eyes and closing it would be a big loss of face to the execs.

I suspect that the same isn't true for companies like Sony and Panasonic, cameras have never been what defines those brands to the public and as a result I think the execs would be more willing to drop those divisions.
Click to expand...
Olympus has said that the research done by the camera division is critical for their medical division and that they have no plans to abandon it. However, that may just be smoke to pacify investors.
Click to expand...
 
Mahmoud Mousef said:
pacnwhobbyist said:
I think we all remember the article published last year saying that a huge shakeout is coming and that the only companies left standing in the camera market will be Canon, Nikon, and Sony.
Click to expand...
controversy = page hits
Writers get far too much undeserved mind-attention. Buy what serves your needs and budget.
Click to expand...
I can assure I am not a K-n R-ckw-ll-esque individual. I am just merely interested in what people have to say. Is that okay with you?
 
pacnwhobbyist said:
I think we all remember the article published last year saying that a huge shakeout is coming and that the only companies left standing in the camera market will be Canon, Nikon, and Sony. But what about Pentax/Ricoh, Olympus, Panasonic, and Fujifilm? Do you think that they will still be around in a few years time (or at least in the business of selling cameras)? And if so, what underlying strengths do these smaller players in the camera market have that will allow them continue on despite the fierce headwinds in the industry right now? Or do you maybe think that one of the companies whose survival seems almost certain will have a catastrophic fall a la Kodak? Interested to hear everybody's thoughts.
Click to expand...
It is typical of shakeouts due to new disruptive technology that some of the big players that nobody expects to die will die, and that some companies that most people hadn't heard of become big players.
 
pacnwhobbyist said:
Mahmoud Mousef said:
pacnwhobbyist said:
I think we all remember the article published last year saying that a huge shakeout is coming and that the only companies left standing in the camera market will be Canon, Nikon, and Sony.
Click to expand...
controversy = page hits
Writers get far too much undeserved mind-attention. Buy what serves your needs and budget.
Click to expand...
I can assure I am not a K-n R-ckw-ll-esque individual. I am just merely interested in what people have to say. Is that okay with you?
Click to expand...
I have nothing against Ken Rockwell or you. I was referring to last year's (?) article and I assume you were referring to the same one. On Yahoo it was, I think.
 
Mahmoud Mousef said:
pacnwhobbyist said:
Mahmoud Mousef said:
pacnwhobbyist said:
I think we all remember the article published last year saying that a huge shakeout is coming and that the only companies left standing in the camera market will be Canon, Nikon, and Sony.
Click to expand...
controversy = page hits
Writers get far too much undeserved mind-attention. Buy what serves your needs and budget.
Click to expand...
I can assure I am not a K-n R-ckw-ll-esque individual. I am just merely interested in what people have to say. Is that okay with you?
Click to expand...
I have nothing against Ken Rockwell or you. I was referring to last year's (?) article and I assume you were referring to the same one. On Yahoo it was, I think.
Click to expand...
Oh okay...I guess I misunderstood what you were trying to say initially.
 
Gloomy predictions have been way off. I look back on Apple computer gloom days and look what happened. What kind of information, communication or digital entertainment have they not ventured into? As much as they have, they still offer a Mac Book Pro I can continue to work with. I can't see the end of conventional digital cameras either but I do see system diversity and integration as an advantage I'd want. It's one thing that drew me into MFT, when companies can synch with each other which appears to accelerate development.

It would be fascinating to see what's nesting in R&D of the principal camera makers right now. Then you have all the strategy elements that would probably leave us with mouths wide open if we did know what they have in mind. I bet it would be astonishingly far ahead of what consumers are even ready for.

I hope they all win and keep motivating each other, it's been a great industry to work with.
 
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