Will Nikon break the mold with a 24 MP D4s?

I recall that we had a similar discussion over D600 sales.
Ok, does not ring any bells here, but that could be correct.
Again, the bcn data show the D600 barely outselling the D800, and the EOS 6D outselling the D600 by 160%!
Yup, it seem the oil spot issues has cost Nikon dearly. Initially (in the first months, before the issue surfaced) the D600 and 6D seemed to sell about equally well - and no, I have no numbers at all to back this up, just a comment from a product manager for Canon here in Sweden :)

I also had a conversation with one of the product managers here in Sweden in July 2013 about the D600, and he remarked the oil spot issue indeed had been painful for them.

Now, other factors are of course also at play (like Canon overall having higher global market share in DSLR), but my guess that issue does account for some of the difference between D600 and 6D.
Now, I'm aware that both Nikon and Canon are using more market specific marketing strategies. But I say these numbers are reason for concern about the relative success of Nikon's FX strategy. Perhaps those of us who want a D700 successor (or even - God forbid! - a D400 successor) are on to something.
And, to repeat something which has been said many, many times before - the D800 and the D600 are in their different ways the successors of the D700. Get over it and accept it. It's not like Nikon just left that market segment to die. They looked at how much better the Eos 5D Mk2 sold then the D700 (an it sold a lot better), and adjusted accordingly (upping the MP, adding a decent video function) before introducing the D800. And it is not like the D800 has been a failure. Again no numbers, just quoting from a local Nikon product manager (the very same mentioned earlier in this post) but according to him the D800 has outsold the D700 quite comfortably. And it still sell quite well considering it has been on the market for two years by now, and at least in our local market (Sweden) the price has just dropped something like 10% in those two years which is usually a good indication it sells well (the 5D Mk3 has dropped about 20% in the same time).

The D600 on the other has very probably been a big disappointment so far, but that to me seem more to be about poor QC then about choosing the wrong specifications and pricepoint.

But I really doubt your initial proposition of a D4 body with a 24 MP sensor would have any real impact. To me that seem like a rather expensive camera with no clear audience. As mentioned before I could understand a D800 like body with the 24 MP sensor and a reasonably fast framerate like 8 fps. But I doubt that would have made any significant difference to the overall market share either.

As far as a D400 (or a D9000 if Nikon will be consistent about four digits for DX models) I am a bit puzzled as well. The D100, the D200 and the D300/D300s were big sellers for Nikon, and not introducing a clear successor seem a bit odd. To some small degree the D7000 and more evidently the D7100 could be seen as filling that gap ... But it is a bit odd to not have a more high margin DX model when the previous ones sold so well.

But that is just not a Nikon question: Many Eos 7D owners seem upset Canon has not introduced a 7D Mark II yet. My guess is both Canon and Nikon put a higher priority on introducing a FF model in that price bracket - the D700 and 6D respectively.

Also remember that up until 2012, one big problem for both Canon and Nikon has been keeping up with demand. It is not like they have had much spare manufacturing capacity, which mean they probably have had to make some tough prioritizations among models. To me the introduction of the Df seem like a message they now have production capacity to spare for more then just the top sellers in each segment. That could be good news for a potential D400/D9000.
 
...and Expeed 4 is capable of 12 fps at 24 MP.
Huh? It is capable of considerably more then that ;)

But it is a bit moot anyway, since it is the mirror (and the AF) which sets the limit for framerate.
Certainly it is arguable that 16 MP is enough for many pro applications,
It sure is plenty for a vast variety of applications. Less plenty the 36 MP obviously, but considering all the anxiety that resolution has caused among some posters, that might be a selling point :)
but the I suspect the D4 has done poorly with enthusiasts due to the relatively low resolution.
I suspect the main reason it has done poorly with enthusiasts is because it is not designed, nor priced for enthusiasts. And yes, I am aware the D3 did well with enthusiasts, but that was in a completely different market situation. There was nothing like a D600/D610, D800 or Df around back then.

Once the D700 arrived, the D3 and later the D3s did not particularly well with enthusiasts any more.
Speaking for myself, it would be almost irresistible for wildlife action.
I would rather think a 24 MP D800H or whatever they choose to name it - basically a D800 body, 24 MP, and something like 8 fps would be a more logical "fast enthusiast camera". That would shut up a large part of the where-is-the-real-successor-to-the-D700 crowd too (which would be a relief in this forum).
 
Wifi standards evolve relatively fast and does sometimes have different licensing requirements in various regions. Keeping it as an add on may solve more problems than meets the eye. I believe GPS may also have regional licensing issues for software but am willing to be corrected about this.

Besides, for the photojournalist cameras, how often will Wifi be used relative to someone who's going to be in combatively fixed locations.Wifi may be better suited to lower tier products because they'd get used more. This isn't a fact, just an opinion.
 
I don't know the figures but I know many 5D MK2 shooters who now think they have pretty much the perfect camera in the MK3. I'm a wedding photographer, btw.

But my point really is about cannabilising sales re the 5D MK3 and the 1Dx. Is Canon losing 1Dx sales to the MK3? Anyway, this is taking the thread down a different route, so I'll stop there :)
I've heard this argument so many times, but can someone explain to me how the 5D MKIII sits alongside the 1Dx?
It sits there as its lighter and smaller sibling, much like the D700 was the smaller and lighter sibling of the D3 ;)

It is quite successful among full time pro PJ shooters, but that is a rather small market.
The 5D MKIII has pretty much the spec that D700 replacement fans want, including myself and yet exists along with their flagship D4 equivalent.
Which is the odd and rather fun part: It is like Canon built the D700 replacement many D700 owners wanted (except for the lens mount) while Nikon pretty much built the Eos 5D Mk2 replacement many 5D Mk2 owners wanted (except for the lens mount).

And considering the Eos 5D Mark II outsold the D700 by a wide margin, and the D800 so far has outsold the Eos 5D Mk3 by a wide margin, it seem Canon got it right in the first round, and Nikon in the second.

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I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every moment of it!
By the way, film is not dead.
It just smells funny
Still a valid question Rik, how about 14fps 1Dx vs. 6fps 5Diii. That is some real differentiation there. If the D710 were only 6fps @24mp, even with grip, would the D700 holdouts be happy? (hint: I don't think so ;-) )

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'A camera is an instrument that teaches people how to see without a camera.' -- Dorothea Lange
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Lets face it. There's nothing in the 24mg line up at any pro type level. D600/D610 really just a glorified D7000 on some extra protein powder. The D700 never did get replaced. That camera was Camera of The Year and for a good reason. And to the comment that someone posted about Steve Jobs isn't it better to sell cameras of same brand even if they compete agains each other? Nikon would still be getting the sales. Yet is was very odd and sad that Nikon stopped making the D700 when the D800 was announced while Canon still made the 5D MKll even while you could buy a 5D MKlll. Smart on Canons part. I think Nikon was on to something when making the DF a non video camera, but does Nikon take a pole of who actually uses the video in the DSLR camera. To bad though that the non video camera couldn't have been a D710. 24mg no video, Expeed 4 high iso performer, fast AF in low light dual cf slots and 8 fps.All in the awesome D700 body. That would fill the camera gap.
 
Lets face it. There's nothing in the 24mg line up at any pro type level. D600/D610 really just a glorified D7000 on some extra protein powder. The D700 never did get replaced.
Ever heard of a camera called D800? Or a Df?;)
That camera was Camera of The Year and for a good reason.
Yes it was, it got raving reviews and it was loved in this forum, and still is.

But the sad truth many forum diehards seem unable to accept or understand - it never sold that well. It was the same thing with the original Eos 5D - lots of attention, lots of review gold stars and whatnot, lots of forum love, but poor sales.

After the initial sales in the first few months the D700 did not get much commercial traction. It never made the sales numbers Nikon expected or hoped. While the Eos 5D Mark II sold very well right from the start, and actually kept selling pretty well even until after it was replaced - there the initially high price of the 5D Mark III helped a bit, but still.

So Nikon made a D700 replacement which had those properties the D700 lacked in comparison to the Eos 5D Mark II - high resolution and a decent video implementation. Or as we often call it, D800.

And guess what, the D800 has sold well, much better then the D700 did. And it still sell well after two years.

This is the main reason Nikon has not shown much enthusiasm for making the "real D700 replacement" which is so often asked for in this forum. Why repeat a unsuccessful model?
And to the comment that someone posted about Steve Jobs isn't it better to sell cameras of same brand even if they compete agains each other? Nikon would still be getting the sales. Yet is was very odd and sad that Nikon stopped making the D700 when the D800 was announced while Canon still made the 5D MKll even while you could buy a 5D MKlll. Smart on Canons part.
Well, the big difference was there was actual commercial reason to keep making the 5D Mark II, since it kept selling well. While the D700 sales had all but stopped more then a year before the D800 appeared.

Nikon cannot make models based on what a small but loud group of forum enthusiasts want. Then they would end up like a niche player, much like Fujifilm: loved in forums, but actually selling very little.
I think Nikon was on to something when making the DF a non video camera, but does Nikon take a pole of who actually uses the video in the DSLR camera. To bad though that the non video camera couldn't have been a D710. 24mg no video, Expeed 4 high iso performer, fast AF in low light dual cf slots and 8 fps.All in the awesome D700 body. That would fill the camera gap.
Well, there you go: The Df is in many ways the D700 replacement you have been asking for, but with a retro flirt added for good measure. My guess it will end up pretty much like the D700 - loved and revered by a small group of people, but not selling that well.

Like it or not, Nikon will always try to make the cameras which sell well. When they have unused production capacity, they might try more oddball models like the Df. But other from that, they will stick to what seem to get the most commercial traction. They will not always succeed - look at the D600. But making models who actually sell in decent numbers is always going to be a the first priority.
 
Bad quality control caused the problem and bad customer response management made it worse. Just keeping quiet and hoping it will go away does not work.

They could have asked Canon about this who made similar mistakes with their Eos 1D Mark III and went from 95% market share among pro sports/PJ shooters something like 60% in a very short time.
And what will the consequences be for future product development?
Hopefully better QC and also hopefully a quicker integration of features like gps and wifi (the last part at least seem to be happening).

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I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every moment of it!
By the way, film is not dead.
It just smells funny
 

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