Andrew Fish
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Smartphones may cannibalise the bottom of the camera market - the holiday snappers and candid club photographers - but they won't have any significant impact on the hobbyists and professionals. It's not a question of how much R&D Apple or Samsung put in, it's a question of the amount of light you can get into a small lens and sensor setup, the reach and speed of the camera and its ergonomics. Since phones have to be designed to be as portable as possible, there's never going to be an iPhone that feels comfortable with a 100-400mm lens bolted on the front. And it's never going to have a physics-defying sensor setup which can deliver the same depth of field as an APS-C or full-frame camera.
What's happened over the last decade is that digital photography has led to a boom in hobbyists. The smaller cameras like the Ixus or the A series might have been many people's introduction to digital, but those who have found a passion for photography have migrated either to prosumer models or DSLRs. They haven't done it simply because the image quality is better, they've done it because it's more flexible or more powerful than the smaller model. As with all booms, however, the market has gradually saturated: the vast mass of people who had never owned an SLR but were interested in their digital offspring have bought their cameras. Some will upgrade periodically, perhaps even every cycle, but most will be perfectly happy to keep using their 20D until it falls apart. Sales have therefore slowed, an effect exaggerated by the world's financial problems. Mobile phones meanwhile are something almost entirely driven by fashion - many otherwise sensible people feel the need to upgrade time and time again, simply to be seen to have the latest model. Apple and Samsung are hyping the photographic capabilities of their phones, and no doubt happy snappers are throwing their limited resources that way, but it doesn't follow that phones will replace cameras beyond the bottom of the market. This kind of hype happens with every type of technology: a few years back tablets were going to replace all other computers; then the sales curve folded down, Apple's shares dropped by a third and the hype died back to normal levels. When Blu-ray was launched, people assumed everyone would replace their DVD players and cause another boom, but they were wrong. It's just the way tech-fashionistas think - it's not real life. The digital camera boom lasted longer than most, but it was always fated to end.
What is true is that less money coming in, companies like Canon are trying to eke out as much money as possible from their R&D. We saw this in the widespread use of the same 18MP sensor across the APS-C range. Canon will do everything it can to maintain its margins, but in the end it will have to either cut costs or sacrifice profits if it wants to drop prices and sell volume, or simply accept smaller margins and live as a premium brand. There will always be hobbyists and pros who want to buy their first DSLR, to replace a broken on, or simply who feel the urge to splurge on a new model - Canon's role is to make sure they're there with the right product at the time.
What's happened over the last decade is that digital photography has led to a boom in hobbyists. The smaller cameras like the Ixus or the A series might have been many people's introduction to digital, but those who have found a passion for photography have migrated either to prosumer models or DSLRs. They haven't done it simply because the image quality is better, they've done it because it's more flexible or more powerful than the smaller model. As with all booms, however, the market has gradually saturated: the vast mass of people who had never owned an SLR but were interested in their digital offspring have bought their cameras. Some will upgrade periodically, perhaps even every cycle, but most will be perfectly happy to keep using their 20D until it falls apart. Sales have therefore slowed, an effect exaggerated by the world's financial problems. Mobile phones meanwhile are something almost entirely driven by fashion - many otherwise sensible people feel the need to upgrade time and time again, simply to be seen to have the latest model. Apple and Samsung are hyping the photographic capabilities of their phones, and no doubt happy snappers are throwing their limited resources that way, but it doesn't follow that phones will replace cameras beyond the bottom of the market. This kind of hype happens with every type of technology: a few years back tablets were going to replace all other computers; then the sales curve folded down, Apple's shares dropped by a third and the hype died back to normal levels. When Blu-ray was launched, people assumed everyone would replace their DVD players and cause another boom, but they were wrong. It's just the way tech-fashionistas think - it's not real life. The digital camera boom lasted longer than most, but it was always fated to end.
What is true is that less money coming in, companies like Canon are trying to eke out as much money as possible from their R&D. We saw this in the widespread use of the same 18MP sensor across the APS-C range. Canon will do everything it can to maintain its margins, but in the end it will have to either cut costs or sacrifice profits if it wants to drop prices and sell volume, or simply accept smaller margins and live as a premium brand. There will always be hobbyists and pros who want to buy their first DSLR, to replace a broken on, or simply who feel the urge to splurge on a new model - Canon's role is to make sure they're there with the right product at the time.
