Potemkin_Photo
Senior Member
Read this fascinating post at EOSHD:
http://www.eoshd.com/content/11409/consumer-dslrs-dead-5-years
What do you think?
http://www.eoshd.com/content/11409/consumer-dslrs-dead-5-years
What do you think?
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Is end times for DSLRs?
- Thread starter Potemkin_Photo
- Start date
I would be striking up conversations with Google, Apple, or Adobe on ways to re-invent remote shooting, tablet PP work, and image processing, etc.
Of course I don't expect Canon to turn it around...they did make the PowerShot N as a testiment to how clueless they are. Nikon is going off on 'pure photography' lately which is a white flag as well saying...yes we're giving up on converting the masses...lets just target the few rich gearheads we have left.
The traditional Japanese thinking of photography gear would be...hey we give you the tools and *you* come up with ways to use it effectively...i.e., you have a scene with too much dynamic range? Ok then we'll give you bracketing features, you take the RAW files, run them through non-Japanese-made software, and layer mask the sky from the shorter exposure with the landscape of the longer exposure, blah blah blah.
The Apple/Google engineer looks at this as a software engineering problem...ok limited DR sensor, ability of hardware to take bracketed shots...ok simple just automatically take rapid fire bracketed shots and automatically do layer mask exposure blending, etc...*done*. Lets make a machine learning program that sifts through thousands or millions of RAWS and their 'end' results and produce an AI capable of choosing optimal exposure blending parameters, etc. Well there you go HDR in a smartphone.
Or how about a night time shot...again Japanese companies give you the hardware and a limited set of features...its up to certain American photographers again to come up with novel ideas.
http://www.sansmirror.com/articles/technique/reducing-noise-the-mean-way.html
That one is already being implemented in smart phones.
If you really think about it...the whole process of going into LR in order to produce a shot without burnt highlights compared to an OOC jpeg 100% exemplifies what is wrong with Japanese companies. They have the ability to give you the *hardware* you need but not the ability to confidently give you the entire toolset and workflow. The fact that time and time again its the *owners* of photographic gear that innovate to bring ideas together with software tools and not the hardware makers themselves.
Magic Lantern shows how much unbridled innovation there is out there. They can take clever ideas with existing hardware, throw together some image PP algorithms, and squ eeze 14 stops of dynamic range out of a single exposure. Now imagine what would happen if Magic Lanterns brain trust did not exist at the tail-end of a product through hacked firmware but existed *throughout* the entire product development of a given camera? That raw talent in software engineering exists with smartphone imaging but *not* traditional DSLRs, and its a formidable opponent.
Two things that by physics will still give DSLRs a positive edge would be action telephoto work and AF tracking, etc. Things that Canon is thankfully good at. I imagine smartphone cameras will eventually continue to advance with wide-angle lenses and photography making advances in DR and low-light, and stitching with the assistance of intelligent image algorithms. Having such a maturely hacked firmware also gives it some future-proofing (in the same way Magic lantern has enabled incredible video output out of camera's that had no such features, they can continue to 'lift up' existing Canon cameras with future image processing techniques).
So out of DSLR companies Canon with its excellent liveview implementation, early wi-fi/touchscreen adoption, good telephoto/AF system, and extremely mature and active firmware hacking community gives it an extremely good shelf-life regardless of the inability of traditional DSLR companies themselves.
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Keith Z Leonard
Veteran Member
I think it's become popular to throw out ideas as soon as possible for something to fail. It seems to have become a thing to guess at what will fail next and try to make a name for oneself in the process. Maybe consumer DSLRs are going to go away, maybe not. They are certainly an inconvenient package for people when compared to something always already in their pocket, but cell phones are still a long was from matching image quality.
Anecdotal evidence, but I was at a Halloween party this week and everyone was in awesome costumes, etc...in terrible lighting with lasers going off and people were snapping pics with cell phones and universally complaining about the results. I had my 5D with me and took a few and even in my intoxicated state they were light-years ahead, so everyone asks for them.
Maybe it's saturated such that everyone has a friend good with a camera? Maybe not, hard to say, but the rebel line is probably still dominated by soccer moms trying to get better pics than their P&S or cell phones and not wanting to spend a ton of money on pro photography. Market saturation is a real risk unless we start to see some significant improvements in the rebel line though. From t2i to t5i I don't see much of a difference, honestly. When the 70D af hits rebels and it's a reasonable camcorder and photo machine that should help a bit, but I would have thought that would be good to hit by Christmas.
I've been hearing for about 5 years how mirrorless is going to kill DSLRs and thus far it hasn't happened. I've also heard about all the other things that are going to die, PCs, 3D games, consoles, movie theaters, DVDs, Blurays, laptops, etc....things are evolving, but none of these things are "dead" at the moment, though some predictions are a decade old.
Potemkin_Photo wrote:
Anecdotal evidence, but I was at a Halloween party this week and everyone was in awesome costumes, etc...in terrible lighting with lasers going off and people were snapping pics with cell phones and universally complaining about the results. I had my 5D with me and took a few and even in my intoxicated state they were light-years ahead, so everyone asks for them.
Maybe it's saturated such that everyone has a friend good with a camera? Maybe not, hard to say, but the rebel line is probably still dominated by soccer moms trying to get better pics than their P&S or cell phones and not wanting to spend a ton of money on pro photography. Market saturation is a real risk unless we start to see some significant improvements in the rebel line though. From t2i to t5i I don't see much of a difference, honestly. When the 70D af hits rebels and it's a reasonable camcorder and photo machine that should help a bit, but I would have thought that would be good to hit by Christmas.
I've been hearing for about 5 years how mirrorless is going to kill DSLRs and thus far it hasn't happened. I've also heard about all the other things that are going to die, PCs, 3D games, consoles, movie theaters, DVDs, Blurays, laptops, etc....things are evolving, but none of these things are "dead" at the moment, though some predictions are a decade old.
Potemkin_Photo wrote:
If I was Canon I would get into the cell phone business. Canon is great at writing software, probably the best at the camera business in the world. According to the great EOSHD article, the future (and present) is about software.
Samsung is shyly getting into hybrid cell phone/camera. In my opinion this is not going to work. They need to do it Apple style (with pomp) and with the decision to corner the market. It is the only way to do it these days.
If it would be possible to build a cell-phone as good as an iPhone, twice as slim and able to to have a 1" sensor or so and a short tele, I would jump immediately. Possibly I'm talking about the holy grail (for camera and/or cell-phone makers) but I'm sure this could be possible very soon.
My reason is everybody's reason. My cellphone is always with me. On the other end, specialized cameras will be the future for survival of the real cameras. Landscape cameras, street cameras, night cameras, action cameras, etc. Gopro Hero is doing just fine with one very specialized camera. Black Magic may well do it too.True enthusiasts and pros will always need fine instruments of precision to help them seek excellence.
Have a cellphone/camera division to stay alive and have the latest technology and then lend the technology to the more expensive specialized cameras.
Eduardo
Samsung is shyly getting into hybrid cell phone/camera. In my opinion this is not going to work. They need to do it Apple style (with pomp) and with the decision to corner the market. It is the only way to do it these days.
If it would be possible to build a cell-phone as good as an iPhone, twice as slim and able to to have a 1" sensor or so and a short tele, I would jump immediately. Possibly I'm talking about the holy grail (for camera and/or cell-phone makers) but I'm sure this could be possible very soon.
My reason is everybody's reason. My cellphone is always with me. On the other end, specialized cameras will be the future for survival of the real cameras. Landscape cameras, street cameras, night cameras, action cameras, etc. Gopro Hero is doing just fine with one very specialized camera. Black Magic may well do it too.True enthusiasts and pros will always need fine instruments of precision to help them seek excellence.
Have a cellphone/camera division to stay alive and have the latest technology and then lend the technology to the more expensive specialized cameras.
Eduardo
M
meland
Guest
I admire the arrogance of this statement but I would also like to know what qualifies you to make it. Other than a PhD in hindsight perhaps?
Anyone who accuses another of being clueless better be very sure of their ground and also be able to back it up. Being able to spell testiment (sic) would also help.
Now some might gather that you don't like the EOS N. Fair enough but personally I think it was a brave attempt to do something different. And if the various people in sub 25 age group that I have spoken to about it are any indication they seem to find it quite fascinating. It's unlikely to be a major sales success but I can also tell you that Canon never expected it to be. In a similar way to car manufacturers producing concept car to gauge customer reaction, the N was designed to do the same. Will it help? Who knows - but I don't think that makes Canon clueless.
This from the poster who invents the EOS N in the next sentence. Res ipsa loquitur.
M
meland
Guest
Rick Knepper
Forum Pro
the cameras covered in this forum. This needs to be posted in the Rebel forum.
M
meland
Guest
Don't think so. DSLRs even entry-level still have these advantages over mirrorless counterpart,
Better AF in PDAF or CDAF in tracking moving subjects.
Many prefer OVF (even pentamirror) over EVF.
Better gripping and handing.
Better balance with zoom and tele lenses.
More powerful battery life.
Usually cheaper than their mirrorless counterpart.
Advanced DSLRs will not go away as there are simply no competitions from mirrorless sides in sports, wildlife and PJs fields. Mirrorless cameras' only advantage is small in size and light in weight with pancake or kit zoom lenses but not all of photographers prefer small/light. Their body less size/weight advantage disappears with fast zoom and tele lenses, not only irrelevant in total size/weight but becomes a disadvantage in handling & gripping and balance as well much less powerful battery if you need to take more than one thousand photos in a given task.
Better AF in PDAF or CDAF in tracking moving subjects.
Many prefer OVF (even pentamirror) over EVF.
Better gripping and handing.
Better balance with zoom and tele lenses.
More powerful battery life.
Usually cheaper than their mirrorless counterpart.
Advanced DSLRs will not go away as there are simply no competitions from mirrorless sides in sports, wildlife and PJs fields. Mirrorless cameras' only advantage is small in size and light in weight with pancake or kit zoom lenses but not all of photographers prefer small/light. Their body less size/weight advantage disappears with fast zoom and tele lenses, not only irrelevant in total size/weight but becomes a disadvantage in handling & gripping and balance as well much less powerful battery if you need to take more than one thousand photos in a given task.
DenisBBergeron
Member
I RTFA and the comments on both sites. I think I can't call something dead until it's dead.
I have 31 years with SLR and photography in general. Actually, we live a market shift where none of the actual DSLR offer what people want.
I love my FF 5d & 5dII and I just get a 70d because of WiFi, but the WiFi in this camera is a pain in the a** and the connected services are very limited.
I have like 100k$ of EOS lenses. I could sale them to go for another mount, but then, none of them will give me what something more that what I have today.
The 5dIII don't have a lot of innovation from 5dII and where the Eye controlled Auto-focus that Canon had in 1998? Wait, Sony have it in the a7r ! why Canon don't bring it back.
Where the real connected camera, with my Samsung s3 I can take picture and modifying with photoshop and printing it without even opening a computer. The camera is the computer. When I shoot with my phone, the pics are already on my cloud account, the one I choose not the one Canon choose.
The Samsung Android Camera with NX lenses, is something in the right direction for the next dslr. But then, maybe the will have a nice sensor (the camera is not available now) but I really love the bokeh of 35mm and bigger sensor
I have 31 years with SLR and photography in general. Actually, we live a market shift where none of the actual DSLR offer what people want.
I love my FF 5d & 5dII and I just get a 70d because of WiFi, but the WiFi in this camera is a pain in the a** and the connected services are very limited.
I have like 100k$ of EOS lenses. I could sale them to go for another mount, but then, none of them will give me what something more that what I have today.
The 5dIII don't have a lot of innovation from 5dII and where the Eye controlled Auto-focus that Canon had in 1998? Wait, Sony have it in the a7r ! why Canon don't bring it back.
Where the real connected camera, with my Samsung s3 I can take picture and modifying with photoshop and printing it without even opening a computer. The camera is the computer. When I shoot with my phone, the pics are already on my cloud account, the one I choose not the one Canon choose.
The Samsung Android Camera with NX lenses, is something in the right direction for the next dslr. But then, maybe the will have a nice sensor (the camera is not available now) but I really love the bokeh of 35mm and bigger sensor
Rexgig0
Veteran Member
Take out the entry level DSLR market from underneath Canon or Nikon's feet and they'll have difficulties turning some profits from their camera divisions.
Not really sure this is going to happen but just in case, I'll hang on to my NX1000...
Not really sure this is going to happen but just in case, I'll hang on to my NX1000...
Matt Mikulla Photography
Leading Member
I wouldn't say Canon is great or even good at writing software. If you have the IOS app for the 6D you would know exactly what I'm talking about. It's a turd. And so is trying to connect your camera wirelessly to remote capture.
They need real software developers, UX and UI people to make this happen.
True, but if the breadmaker suffers (i.e. entry level DSLRs), you can bet that the premium class will either no longer exist or get pushed into boutique class products.
Nikon already seems prepared to go boutique...this is really an unfortunate reality to come it seems.
Potemkin_Photo
Senior Member
I guess the future of DSLRs will no longer be better sensors and other tech, but rather whether you wanted ivory or mahogany inlaid into the grip.
Canon sure has skated for quite a few year with the same old tech. Looks like the ice is thinning ahead.
Canon sure has skated for quite a few year with the same old tech. Looks like the ice is thinning ahead.
The bullet points are weak. Smart phones provide, at times, the same IQ as P&S cameras. Unfortunately phones don't provide the same IQ or options that SLRs do. And for those that like to take pictures, "innovation" isn't needed. dSLRs made 10 years ago took great photos and they can still take great photos. Innovation really isn't essential to whether or not the SLR will be "dead" in 5 years.
NancyP
Veteran Member
I think that DSLRs have always been for hobbyists, not for snapshot takers. I think that the decrease in sales has to do with the current poor state of the world economy. The mid-level amateur is holding on to old DSLR rather than upgrading. The high end camera segment is booming, as are other luxury goods.
NancyP
Veteran Member
$100K of EF-mount lenses? You must have the Canon "chess set", one each of the Big Whites.
I think we are witnessing the beginning of the end for Mirror cameras. Sooner or later will all be replaced by mirrorless. Also sooner or later we will see the shutter and all other moving parts of the cameras going away. Like with so many other pieces of technology; non moving parts are easy to design and produce and last far longer.
But high end cameras are not going to be replaced or eclipse as long as a good glass is needed to get some decent results.
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