Aftermarket FFs — an obstacle for Pentax?

Some recent info from Amazon popular sales results (posted in a different thread) show that even the current best sellers from Pentax (K5II and K30) cannot catch up with 5-10 FFs that sell better.

Although data from Amazon is not truly dependable to draw any precise conclusion, it still is some kind of insight (better than nothing) available to us to put things in some perspective.
(Data also shows a surprising demand for 35+ years old K1000 film camera).

As a brand that caters for enthusiast photographers, as it is often described, it seems Pentax caters well for only one part of that group (one that scales down). The other group, one willing to venture into more experimentation and trying of something more than a cropped sensor, spends time assembling a system based on an

• Aftermarket FF offer (buying used 5D, 5DII, D700, D800, etc.)
• Buying current entry level FFs from Nikon and Canon.

In both cases, such enthusiasts switch the original system sooner or later, purchase more lenses and accessories for the FF body, and become married to a new brand.

Data from Amazon at least show lots of activity there, in buying and selling of the aftermarket / entry level FF, to a degree that surpasses sales of all Pentax DSLRs currently available. So that is the market that Pentax has not yet tapped into.

Can we consider that such rising and flourishing market is a threat for the possible future FF offer from Pentax?


Namely, by the time Pentax FF camera model (or models) is out in the public, there will be even more aftermarket FFs available, at even better prices than now. I believe that under no circumstance the price of the new camera can or should match the price of an aftermarket one to win someone's attention (despite being new).

Say, a new FF from Pentax sells close to $2K — slightly above the D600 and below the D800, at the level of a used 5DII: Would anyone risk buying into the new Pentax FF, despite the lower prices of the D600, and availability and more versatility of the 5DII?

Would anyone be prepared to get a FF from Pentax and wait for Pentax to bring in all the lenses and accessories that current manufacturers of FF cameras already have?

When I look at it, I see no clear answer. But undoubtedly, it poses a considerable risk for Pentax in the FF development, especially now when they are (too) late to the FF game, when prices and expectations are already set.

With what magic Pentax can eventually lead or change that game (or any other game)? And be the part of the holy trinity of the imaging industry?

I don't know. You?

I think that Pentax should try and become a part of that market at least, because new enthusiasts are coming there each new day.

--
Zvonimir Tosic
“A portrait is not made in the camera, but on either side of it.”
— Edward Steichen

Pentax, or Ricoh, or Hoya or whatever it is now, doesn't seem to have the resources to do anything but try to run in place. Forget full-frame--they haven't been able to catch up to autofocus or processing speed, or even shutter speed sync. Their supposedly "pro" fast zoom lenses are slow to focus and prone to mechanical problems. There are fewer compatible aftermarket products and lenses available. They will not be part of a trinity unless they unseat the distant 3rd place, Sony.

It will always be an uphill battle. The second they come out with a FF camera, then people will complain about the lack of lenses. People will say "why buy into the expense of Pentax over Canikon when the quantity of lenses can't compete?" Then it will be the flash system, then the video shortcomings, then no store presence. All the crop sensor arguments just get transferred to FF.

And the thing nobody ever talks about is what if they come with a FF and it's not as good as the other offerings? Can you imagine the meltdown on this board if it isn't the Holy Grail of all cameras? Remember when the k-01 came out. I thought we would need to call a medic for folks. What happens after all this time FF comes out and DPR pans it, there's still no tethering, no wifi, marginal video, etc., etc., etc. that the others offer? Pentax seems to think they are pretty generous with giving us WR bodies and calling it a day. I know this bunch on here would pretty much take an all manual camera with all manual lenses for bird shooting only and be happy as a clam. But that's not enough people to turn a profit.

Then you have price. Unless a Pentax FF blows away the competition and is cheaper, who's going to buy it? Yes, guys that have FF Pentax glass sitting around. And who is that, some old timers that continually talk about saving their FF glass from their film days hoping that Pentax releases a camera for it. Well, you guys from the film days are few and far between in the context of the world camera buying market, and like it or not, you aren't their target market. You aren't a growing segment, you are a shrinking segment. You can't build a system around manual focus glass you have to buy on Ebay.

colesf said:

colesf wrote:

Pentax, or Ricoh, or Hoya or whatever it is now, doesn't seem to have the resources to do anything but try to run in place. Forget full-frame--they haven't been able to catch up to autofocus or processing speed, or even shutter speed sync. Their supposedly "pro" fast zoom lenses are slow to focus and prone to mechanical problems. There are fewer compatible aftermarket products and lenses available. They will not be part of a trinity unless they unseat the distant 3rd place, Sony.

Click to expand...

Agree. One of the most coherent and good short answer I have read lately. I now deeply believe that there won't be a FF from Pentax. That's why I keep telling people; if they need or want a FF, there are very good alternatives out there and the prices are not too bad, either for used or brand new equipment.

People should change camera systems for lenses more than they should for camera features but they still do. As it is Canon and Nikon still sell about 100 APS-C for every FF camera they make. Might be down to 70:1 these days but not much less. Most of the money is made in lenses, accessories, and APS-C bodies, not in FF ones. As long as that ratio is maintained none of the major players is going to drop the price of FF bodies into the realm of the high end APS-C. Pentax bringing out a FF will not bother them at all. Plus it is not a win-win deal for Pentax as long as the used lens market is strong they won't be able to offset the R&D by selling FF lenses people have to buy. So unless there is a big turnaround in the Lens Map a FF Pentax will likely cost close to $3500 because they can't make up the cost in selling new lenses.

Kent Gittings

You see things like I do.

Kent Gittings

KentG said:

KentG wrote:

Plus it is not a win-win deal for Pentax as long as the used lens market is strong they won't be able to offset the R&D by selling FF lenses people have to buy. So unless there is a big turnaround in the Lens Map a FF Pentax will likely cost close to $3500 because they can't make up the cost in selling new lenses.

Click to expand...

This is a good point I was thinking about as well. Assuming they did come out with FF, and further assuming that I somehow afforded it - what lenses would I shoot? My legacy stuff, that's what. Pentax-A's, Takumar's, all that sort of thing. I could see buying *maybe* one latest/greatest expensive lens but that's probably going to be my limit. Mainly it'll all be old glass, whatever I've acquired from eBay or lucky antique finds.

Zvonimir Tosic said:

Zvonimir Tosic wrote:

Some recent info from Amazon popular sales results (posted in a different thread) show that even the current best sellers from Pentax (K5II and K30) cannot catch up with 5-10 FFs that sell better.

Although data from Amazon is not truly dependable to draw any precise conclusion, it still is some kind of insight (better than nothing) available to us to put things in some perspective.
(Data also shows a surprising demand for 35+ years old K1000 film camera).

As a brand that caters for enthusiast photographers, as it is often described, it seems Pentax caters well for only one part of that group (one that scales down). The other group, one willing to venture into more experimentation and trying of something more than a cropped sensor, spends time assembling a system based on an

• Aftermarket FF offer (buying used 5D, 5DII, D700, D800, etc.)
• Buying current entry level FFs from Nikon and Canon.

In both cases, such enthusiasts switch the original system sooner or later, purchase more lenses and accessories for the FF body, and become married to a new brand.

Data from Amazon at least show lots of activity there, in buying and selling of the aftermarket / entry level FF, to a degree that surpasses sales of all Pentax DSLRs currently available. So that is the market that Pentax has not yet tapped into.

Can we consider that such rising and flourishing market is a threat for the possible future FF offer from Pentax?

Namely, by the time Pentax FF camera model (or models) is out in the public, there will be even more aftermarket FFs available, at even better prices than now. I believe that under no circumstance the price of the new camera can or should match the price of an aftermarket one to win someone's attention (despite being new).

Say, a new FF from Pentax sells close to $2K — slightly above the D600 and below the D800, at the level of a used 5DII: Would anyone risk buying into the new Pentax FF, despite the lower prices of the D600, and availability and more versatility of the 5DII?

Would anyone be prepared to get a FF from Pentax and wait for Pentax to bring in all the lenses and accessories that current manufacturers of FF cameras already have?

When I look at it, I see no clear answer. But undoubtedly, it poses a considerable risk for Pentax in the FF development, especially now when they are (too) late to the FF game, when prices and expectations are already set.

With what magic Pentax can eventually lead or change that game (or any other game)? And be the part of the holy trinity of the imaging industry?

I don't know. You?

I think that Pentax should try and become a part of that market at least, because new enthusiasts are coming there each new day.

Click to expand...

Pentax has one good option - they can do something (a) that Nikon and Canon are not doing and (b) that recognizes that Pentax's heyday was prior to the autofocus era, and that therefore more of their potential market for a FF dSLR is for its (formerly much bigger) manual focus-centric user base - they can make a FF dSLR with a 100% coverage viewfinder with high magnification (e.g., 90-95%), and with (available, at least) focusing screens that are more useful for manual focus.

This would:

1. Give Pentax a FF dSLR with the best viewfinder in the industry (since their competitors have only 70%-76% magnification).

2. Provide a work-around for autofocus functionality that may be less than stellar for the high resolution available with the higher density FF sensors now commonplace, and an alternative for Pentax's historically uncompetitive autofocus (assuming they don't find solutions for that).

3. Appeal to the biggest potential market for their FF dSLR - those who have manual focus K-mount lenses, i.e., the largest Pentax user base, since Pentax has been in a steady decline since the days of manual focus cameras and lenses ended and their user base has been shrinking ever since (and still is).

The biggest potential "growth" for Pentax in terms of market share is to stop the bleeding of Pentax shooters who are moving to Nikon or Canon (mostly) for the FF dSLR that Pentax STILL hasn't made. They can worry about who else they can/might attract after they get their collective butts in gear, because they way things are going at this point it won't make any difference if they drag their feet for much longer. If Pentax can stop some from switching brands, they have a chance at selling them upgrades to lenses later; if they don't put a stop to it, then they have a chance to sell those people absolutely nothing. No profit in selling nothing.

dboeren said:

dboeren wrote:

dboeren said:

KentG wrote:

Plus it is not a win-win deal for Pentax as long as the used lens market is strong they won't be able to offset the R&D by selling FF lenses people have to buy. So unless there is a big turnaround in the Lens Map a FF Pentax will likely cost close to $3500 because they can't make up the cost in selling new lenses.

Click to expand...

This is a good point I was thinking about as well. Assuming they did come out with FF, and further assuming that I somehow afforded it - what lenses would I shoot? My legacy stuff, that's what. Pentax-A's, Takumar's, all that sort of thing. I could see buying *maybe* one latest/greatest expensive lens but that's probably going to be my limit. Mainly it'll all be old glass, whatever I've acquired from eBay or lucky antique finds.

Click to expand...

Lens sales problem? Huh...Why do you people do this so difficult??

The camera itself is making a profit. Pentax lens production is anemic anyway, without even FF. Poorly designed SDM lenses, lack of telezooms etc. Currently only limited primes and (100WR macro) are a happy thing. And Pentax can produces them for FF body also. Re-designed 24-90/3.5-4.5 for FF would sell like hot cakes. Also new HQ 70-300 WR (for FF) would make the trade.

That would be a good start with FF body. No need for any miracles.