As the price goes down, it will the prosumer P&S who will get the
squeeze. Sony's no. 1 market leadership, even without having a DSLR
shows where the revenue is squewed (It makes for a nice Pareto
chart). I find it odd (being a graduate of TM) all the hype and
noise by the users of DSLR as if it is the driver of the long term
strategic goals of the players. DSLRs may drive the technology, but
so far, it is the consumer level that help offset and finance the
R&D for the 8-up mpix, which will trickle down in 2-3 years down
the road.
The is the same reason why Kodak did not update their DC-4800
series. The competition in the P&S where Gx's, 7xx's, 602s, 5050s
now dominate is simply too fierce and yet the margins are thin. And
yet, Kodak has their other foot on the R&D for DSLR. A very fine
balancing act for most companies.
But the technical issues of higher mpix and larger CCDs are really
there. I read different fori where people bash the camera companies
for not coming out with 5 mpix or why no FF sensors. It is not
difficult solving the problems of high end cameras and yet lower
donw the cost rapidly. The noise issues of the 14n, the foveon
delay of the x3, etc shows the technical prowess and difficulties
required to deliver products on time and a low cost, which are
difficult to do. It's not that these companies don't read the
posts, but many have opted to service the "lower" requirements of
the masses for the simple reason that it is a battle of market
share where it matters most and which will readily reflect in the
year-end books.
But they also know they have to do R&D in the high end, where at
times there is little if no profit at all. But this high end is the
hope of the futre. They know the trickle down learning they gain
which can be used inthe consumer level at a later date.
These companies will not stop or re-do their long term strategy
just because somebody cried 1.5 x FOV. They know the market is
small and the technical issues are still high. It's not that they
are not doing anything about it, but they are not rushing to bring
out products till they get it right. They know that the worst that
they can do is not not being able to ship, but to ship with a
faulty product. That is as close as you can get to a kiss of death
in terms of products.
Right now, 6mp is the level where a good balance of quality meet.
It is safe to say that a sub-$1000 dslr is possible within the
year. And the one that delivers it first will achieve a great
psychological blow even if the lenses are not from Nikon or Canon.
It will be proven, as some have stated here, that the market for a
low end DSLR, with a single zoom lens (28-80mm equiv) will sell
well, and it will be the G3's, 5050, 5000/5700 etc which will get
the squeeze. They will have to go down in price or else exit this
segment.
Meanwhile, the Samsung's and their like will be attacking the entry
level. Reducing price, adding features further.
In 2-3 years what will be left will be a variety of entry level
P&S, a limited prosumer P&S (others will exit this segment
altogether) while dslr will avg at U$700-800 in a 6mp-8mp range,
built-in pop flash, bundled with a simple 28-50 or 35-70mm af zoom
if one wants one, using usb 2.0., or blue tooth, 1gb of CF will be
standard. 2-3 fps in 8-12 continuous frames will be the norm.
The prof segment will get their 12-24mp dslr at between
U$1,500-2,500. What I would be curious is whether the 35mm format
or FF will survive this future. Another curious thing would be how
Foveon will evolve in this changing market. I bet they would have
more success in the consumer, if not P&S segment/cum video. Lenses
will still be expensive, and hopefully somebody will sell AA
lithium-ion batteries with their own chargers. Heck, maybe we will
need to call DSLRs something else as one company finally removes
the folding mirror and used LCD screens altogether in an
interchangeble lens format.
What I would even venture to speculate is that Sony may even bring
out their own dslr. They may be forced into this position simply
because their P&S prosumer is already squeezed from the top and
they need to make the jump. They do have the CCD and other
complementary technologies to do this. For Sony, they might
maintain the 7xx series as their P&S midlevel, while the P series
while target multiple niches in the consumer/entry level market.
You will have a P&S for the yuppie, the teenager, the 7-10 year
old, or whatever they can think of.
In the end, in whatever shape or form the market will settle, if
this rate of change is maintained, it will only benefit all users,
whether professionals or not. The era of the sub-1,000 dollars DSLR
has arrived.
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