15D anybody?

Personally having professionally used and owned both Nikon and Canon I prefer the canon user interface and ergonomics much more than that of the Nikons. IF We see a FF at 1499. It would take but a year until canon reworks their entire product line to compete. I think I’d wait to see Canons entry as Im sure it be better.
That's true only if Canon already has a product like that in their pipeline. I suspect their time from conception to production is a whole lot longer than a year. So, unless they were already working on such a product and simply needed to do a little tweaking to get it ready for market, their ability to react that quickly would be difficult at best.

I'm still dubious of Nikon's ability to get such a product to market at that price point, and if they do, I also will be most interested to see what tradeoffs they had to make to offset the much higher costs of the sensor. And yes, even with the re-use of older fabs, the cost of manufacturing a FF sensor will still be very high in relation to APS-C sensors. Hitting that price means they'll have to take costs out somewhere else or eat a lot of margin. I don't see that happening.
$1500 is a very high price for a APS-C camera. The 60D is about $1300 so they would still be allowing a $200 premium over that. Remember it will be made in Thailand, where labour costs are lower than Japan, and it will be made in a brand spanking new completely re-equipped with state of the art production equipment factory (there are advantages to having your plant wiped out and re-equiping on insurance money). Nikon's situation is similar in a strange way to Triumph motorcycles. Their plant was wiped out (by a fire) and when it happened they took the opportunity to re-evaluate their product strategy, and haven't looked back since. So far as Nikon is concerned, they lost both their major DSLR plants. It's very unlikely that they will have failed to take the opportunity for re-assessment and re-eqipping that gave. One of the signals is that they have come out of the crisis with a lot more DSLR manufacturing capacity than they had before. You have to remember as well that cameras are much more important to Nikon than to any other company, they generate the majority of their revenue.
--
Bob
 
Just having the parts, and will, is not enough. They could easily make that camera - but to make it profitable at $1500 is not a given. Maybe they could, maybe not - we do not know, but my guess is that it is unlikely.
It is certainly not a given, but I think it is possible. The only difference in cost from a $900 APS-C camera (60D) is the sensor, so they have $600 to pay for that, which would equate to maybe $150 additional parts cost for the sensor to keep the same margins. An APS-C sensor is about $30, so we are talking $180 for a FF sensor. Sensor price is mainly a matter of accountancy - the raw silicon wafers are cheap and it's not a greatly labour intensive process - what costs is the amortised cost of the fabrication plant, and if that is an old plant that has been paid for, and someone can make the accountants see it that way, then there is a possibility. It's hard to sell obsolescent semiconductor plant (remember sensor lines are generally old when commissioned, they get the ones no longer up to memory and processors) - often they are given away to Universities for research and training. So, I think it is now a possibility that there could be a $1500 FF camera that will make a good margin for the manufacturer.
And even if they could - would they want to cannibalize sales from other more profitable bodies? If Nikon forces the issue they may have to react, but I think it less than probable that Nikon could do that either, for the same reasons. There is no point anyone doing it unless they can make a substantial profit, which would not be progress, it would be revolutionary at this stage.
And Nikon seems to have developed the habit of doing revolutionary things. That doesn't mean that Canon needs to follow suit, they are big enough to have the momentum to go on selling whatever they do.
But you know, and I know, that no such thing will happen.
Don't know. Canon could do it, they have all the parts. They just need the will. But, seeing as they've just sold record numbers of DSLR's, I don't suppose there is any incentive. As in car rental, if you're #2, you need to try harder.
--
Bob
--
Bob
 
Interesting info and points, thanks. From that point of view, it makes sense to pump out as many sensors as possible to bring the cost down. Except your other point...re cannabilisjg sales of other cameras.

Example, Nikon and the motorised or lack thereof.... that makes it preferable to have a motorised body, to enable older lenses. But then, Nikon want people to buy new, they dont get dollars from Joe Blow selling his old stuff.

Quote from my old landlord ' its all a game' !!!!
Just having the parts, and will, is not enough. They could easily make that camera - but to make it profitable at $1500 is not a given. Maybe they could, maybe not - we do not know, but my guess is that it is unlikely.
It is certainly not a given, but I think it is possible. The only difference in cost from a $900 APS-C camera (60D) is the sensor, so they have $600 to pay for that, which would equate to maybe $150 additional parts cost for the sensor to keep the same margins. An APS-C sensor is about $30, so we are talking $180 for a FF sensor. Sensor price is mainly a matter of accountancy - the raw silicon wafers are cheap and it's not a greatly labour intensive process - what costs is the amortised cost of the fabrication plant, and if that is an old plant that has been paid for, and someone can make the accountants see it that way, then there is a possibility. It's hard to sell obsolescent semiconductor plant (remember sensor lines are generally old when commissioned, they get the ones no longer up to memory and processors) - often they are given away to Universities for research and training. So, I think it is now a possibility that there could be a $1500 FF camera that will make a good margin for the manufacturer.
And even if they could - would they want to cannibalize sales from other more profitable bodies? If Nikon forces the issue they may have to react, but I think it less than probable that Nikon could do that either, for the same reasons. There is no point anyone doing it unless they can make a substantial profit, which would not be progress, it would be revolutionary at this stage.
And Nikon seems to have developed the habit of doing revolutionary things. That doesn't mean that Canon needs to follow suit, they are big enough to have the momentum to go on selling whatever they do.
But you know, and I know, that no such thing will happen.
Don't know. Canon could do it, they have all the parts. They just need the will. But, seeing as they've just sold record numbers of DSLR's, I don't suppose there is any incentive. As in car rental, if you're #2, you need to try harder.
--
Bob
--
Bob
--

.....Just from an amateur......'Sometimes it's to your advantage for people to think you're crazy.”
 
You do not understand the cost of producing larger sensors at all.
snip Sensor price is mainly a matter of accountancy - the raw silicon wafers are cheap and it's not a greatly labour intensive process - what costs is the amortised cost of the fabrication plant, and if that is an old plant that has been paid for, and someone can make the accountants see it that way, then there is a possibility.
 
Fab plants are very expensive to build and run (this is not because accountants do not understand what they are doing - they really are). So that cost is amortized over the number of viable sensors created.

Each wafer has defects. This means some of the resulting chips are garbage. If you average 3 defects per wafer, and the wafer makes 20 chips, you get a yield of 17 useable chips. Larger sensors mean fewer per wafer, so not only are you making fewer right off the bat, but defects cost more too. For example, if that wafer made 12 smaller chips, the three defects mean you get 9 useable - so the waste is greater. Now your cost to run the fab plant gets divided by a much smaller number of useable sensors. In my example, the ratio of sensor size is 5:3 (20 compared to 12), but the yield is 9:17 - quite different. Another way of putting it is that you lose 15% of the smaller chips, but the same wafer defect rate would have a loss of 25% of larger chips.

So that increase in sensor size costs a much larger than expected increase in cost.

Now I have just made up numbers, but the principle is correct. Increase the size of a chip and you add cost quickly.
You do not understand the cost of producing larger sensors at all.
OK, illuminate the discussion with your account of the costs of larger sensors.

--
Bob
 
And what's more, it's definitely not as simple as retasking old plants, as was implied in an earlier post. Fab technology is not static. Refitting an old plant to create new wafers is difficult... in some cases impossible. More often, they're simply used to create lower technology silicon which doesn't require the newest fab process.

Admittedly my experience is with microprocessor technology, but I suspect that sensor fabrication follows the same rules. Certainly your post below is absolutely correct for CPU fabrication and very likely exactly the same for sensors. The larger the die, the higher the defect rate and the lower the yields. This begins to make cost increases nearly geometric as the die gets larger.
Fab plants are very expensive to build and run (this is not because accountants do not understand what they are doing - they really are). So that cost is amortized over the number of viable sensors created.

Each wafer has defects. This means some of the resulting chips are garbage. If you average 3 defects per wafer, and the wafer makes 20 chips, you get a yield of 17 useable chips. Larger sensors mean fewer per wafer, so not only are you making fewer right off the bat, but defects cost more too. For example, if that wafer made 12 smaller chips, the three defects mean you get 9 useable - so the waste is greater. Now your cost to run the fab plant gets divided by a much smaller number of useable sensors. In my example, the ratio of sensor size is 5:3 (20 compared to 12), but the yield is 9:17 - quite different. Another way of putting it is that you lose 15% of the smaller chips, but the same wafer defect rate would have a loss of 25% of larger chips.

So that increase in sensor size costs a much larger than expected increase in cost.

Now I have just made up numbers, but the principle is correct. Increase the size of a chip and you add cost quickly.
You do not understand the cost of producing larger sensors at all.
OK, illuminate the discussion with your account of the costs of larger sensors.

--
Bob
 
What you said about yield may be true but the difficulty of manufacturing 4-5 um pixel sized CMOS sensor compares to microprocessor is easy as duck soup. People have to be pretty dumb to not able to keep a good yield.
 
So you are saying yields are irrelevant for chips the size of an APS-C sensor? Is it that easy that defects are not a factor?
I wonder why they don't sell fab plants down at the local 7-11. :)
What you said about yield may be true but the difficulty of manufacturing 4-5 um pixel sized CMOS sensor compares to microprocessor is easy as duck soup. People have to be pretty dumb to not able to keep a good yield.
 
What you said about yield may be true but the difficulty of manufacturing 4-5 um pixel sized CMOS sensor compares to microprocessor is easy as duck soup. People have to be pretty dumb to not able to keep a good yield.
Whether the yields are better than microprocessors or not really doesn't matter all that much. The physics are the same. Yields drop dramatically as die size increases. If that weren't true, why do you suppose it's taken so long for FF sensors to show up at more aggressive price points? What's changed recently that makes it so possible now, where it was not possible say a year or two ago? Certainly wasn't due to lack of potential demand. Question is, can it be done profitably?
 
If Nikon really did produce a FF with 80% of those specs, it would be great news for Canon users.
Only if Canon responded. It took them four years to respond to the D3. It takes a lot to push Canon off their roadmap.
If the crux (FF @ $1500) of this rumor pans out and Canon has no answer, I think Canon will start exsanguinating in terms of market share. And nothing gets attention better than a downward sloping market share curve.

Go Nikon!
 
You do not understand the cost of producing larger sensors at all.
Hmm, care to be some specific?

I just googled "200mm wafer price" and below is the first result of this search.

200mm wafers obviously cost $779 on average these days. For a yield of 17 FF sensors per wafer, material cost for a FF senor would be $779/17 = $45.82.

This is of course just material/wafer cost and wafers for image sensors might be (somewhat) more expensive than standard wafers.

Still, when someone says that FF sensors are expensive, let's put things in perspective.

 
Fab plants are very expensive to build and run (this is not because accountants do not understand what they are doing - they really are). So that cost is amortized over the number of viable sensors created.
Thank you for that information. This might come as a shock to you, but it was something that I already knew. The point I was making, which seems to have gone over your head, is that if the chip is fabricated on an old line, for which the capital investment has already largely been amortised, then the effective cost becomes much smaller, since what is happening is that an otherwise redundant or underused plant is being used to generate revenue. That is all on the positive side of the account, so long as the company accountants can be persuaded to see it that way.
Each wafer has defects. This means some of the resulting chips are garbage. If you average 3 defects per wafer, and the wafer makes 20 chips, you get a yield of 17 useable chips. Larger sensors mean fewer per wafer, so not only are you making fewer right off the bat, but defects cost more too. For example, if that wafer made 12 smaller chips, the three defects mean you get 9 useable - so the waste is greater. Now your cost to run the fab plant gets divided by a much smaller number of useable sensors. In my example, the ratio of sensor size is 5:3 (20 compared to 12), but the yield is 9:17 - quite different. Another way of putting it is that you lose 15% of the smaller chips, but the same wafer defect rate would have a loss of 25% of larger chips.
Yet another shock for you - I know all of that, too. So a mature semiconductor plant has a defect rate of between 0.01 and 0.03 defects per square centimetre. Lets call it 0.02 for this discussion. That means that we might expect on average a 4x3cm chip (12 sq cm) to have a rate of 0.24 or a defect every fourth chip. But a defect doesn't necessarily mean the loss of a chip. Kodak commercial grade image sensors allow up to 80 defective pixels per chip, so actually defects in the pixel array will not generally be important at that defect rate. Defects in the peripheral circuitry might cost an entire chip, so lets assume that the peripheral circuitry is 2.5 sq cm, that is a loss of about 0.1 or one in 10 chips. A 8" wafer holds 20 FF chips, which means each wafer will yield 18 usable chips. (actually close to your 17, but still a reasonable return). So then the question is - how much is a wafer to process. The cost of a raw silicon 8" wafer is about $50. Labour productivity is about 25 mask layers per person day for a small semiconductor line (big ones are more efficient) so that is about a person day per wafer. If a person day costs $100, then we have a cost per wafer of about $150, add another $30 for dopant and other material costs - and we get the cost of a FF sensor chip without plant amortisation as about $10. Thus the bulk of the cost is amortised plant costs, so - as I said and you disputed - if the chip is made on obsolescent plant, for which the investment has already been paid off, it can be made very cheaply. Actually you see this effect all over the semiconductor industry, with old parts being produced at fractions of their original price (if they are still in demand).
So that increase in sensor size costs a much larger than expected increase in cost.

Now I have just made up numbers, but the principle is correct. Increase the size of a chip and you add cost quickly.
You do not understand the cost of producing larger sensors at all.
You do not understand the cost of producing larger sensors at all.
OK, illuminate the discussion with your account of the costs of larger sensors.

--
Bob
--
Bob
 
You do not understand the cost of producing larger sensors at all.
Hmm, care to be some specific?

I just googled "200mm wafer price" and below is the first result of this search.

200mm wafers obviously cost $779 on average these days. For a yield of 17 FF sensors per wafer, material cost for a FF senor would be $779/17 = $45.82.

This is of course just material/wafer cost and wafers for image sensors might be (somewhat) more expensive than standard wafers.

Still, when someone says that FF sensors are expensive, let's put things in perspective.

Useful figure, but it is the fully allocated cost paid by fabless semiconductor companies per processed wafer - so it is the end cost including the foundries labour, material, amortised plant investment and the foundry's profit margin. So, the $45 figure is the cost a company such as Nikon, which operates fabless, might be expected to pay for its raw wafers before it adds the toppings. The CFA film is a standard product from Fujifilm and I believe that Nikon has its own microlens process. Obviously the costs of those two are in proportion to wafer area.

The more we talk about this, the more I think that a $1500 FF is feasible, just so long as the plant amortisation costs are low (i.e. it is not a new state of the sensor art plant - which are usually hand-me-downs from memory and processor lines).

--
Bob
 
And what's more, it's definitely not as simple as retasking old plants, as was implied in an earlier post.
Two points about this:
  • in this context, no-one was talking about 'retasking old plants' - the point was that there are existing image sensor lines which are not capable of the finer geometries demanded for smaller sensors, they are already 'tasked' for image sensors.
  • in any case 'retasking old plants' happens all the time. There is a food chain of semiconductor fab plants. What do you think happens to all the memory and processor lines when those products move to the next node? They are sold on and 'retasked'. For instance, this processor line transferred from toshiba to Sony and 'retasked' to image sensors.
http://image-sensors-world.blogspot.co.uk/2011/02/toshiba-and-toshiba-execute.html
Fab technology is not static. Refitting an old plant to create new wafers is difficult... in some cases impossible. More often, they're simply used to create lower technology silicon which doesn't require the newest fab process.
Which is exactly what we are talking about here, being used to make large pixel sensors because the small pixel production has moved to new lines (which were themselves 'retasked' from processor manufacture.
Admittedly my experience is with microprocessor technology, but I suspect that sensor fabrication follows the same rules. Certainly your post below is absolutely correct for CPU fabrication and very likely exactly the same for sensors. The larger the die, the higher the defect rate and the lower the yields. This begins to make cost increases nearly geometric as the die gets larger.
The difference is that image sensors are more like memory than processors, a chip can be used with defects (up to 80 for a commercial grade sensor from Kodak)
Fab plants are very expensive to build and run (this is not because accountants do not understand what they are doing - they really are). So that cost is amortized over the number of viable sensors created.

Each wafer has defects. This means some of the resulting chips are garbage. If you average 3 defects per wafer, and the wafer makes 20 chips, you get a yield of 17 useable chips. Larger sensors mean fewer per wafer, so not only are you making fewer right off the bat, but defects cost more too. For example, if that wafer made 12 smaller chips, the three defects mean you get 9 useable - so the waste is greater. Now your cost to run the fab plant gets divided by a much smaller number of useable sensors. In my example, the ratio of sensor size is 5:3 (20 compared to 12), but the yield is 9:17 - quite different. Another way of putting it is that you lose 15% of the smaller chips, but the same wafer defect rate would have a loss of 25% of larger chips.

So that increase in sensor size costs a much larger than expected increase in cost.

Now I have just made up numbers, but the principle is correct. Increase the size of a chip and you add cost quickly.
You do not understand the cost of producing larger sensors at all.
OK, illuminate the discussion with your account of the costs of larger sensors.

--
Bob
--
Bob
 
Aren't the full frame sensors still being stitched from two smaller ones?

If so, the yields from a waffer should not be significantly different between APS-C and FF, assuming the chips can be tested before stitching takes place.

Interesting insights on the economics, Bob, thanks.
 
Aren't the full frame sensors still being stitched from two smaller ones?
Not exactly, the patterns made on the chips are stitched using two separate reticules each covering half of a sensor which isn't quite the same as two smaller sensors - there is still just one chip. The two reticules need to match very precisely, but Nikon which produces the steppers and scanners, has software which precisely corrects the reticule images to eliminate the distortion of the scanner optics.
If so, the yields from a waffer should not be significantly different between APS-C and FF, assuming the chips can be tested before stitching takes place.
No, they can't because they are not separate complete chips, it is two pattens for half a chip. Still, given the matching software, I wouldn't expect there to be a larger yield problem.

--
Bob
 
Nothing has gone over my head - I just disagree that you can call something free because you have already made money with it. I also disagree that you can manufacture large sensors without significantly increased costs.

I will say that I was perhaps snippy in my earlier response - and did not intend to do that - apologies for that. Whichever one of us is correct will be seen only in the future - if Sony (and hopefully Canon) come out with a FF camera with specs like the 60D for $1500 then we all win. :)
Fab plants are very expensive to build and run (this is not because accountants do not understand what they are doing - they really are). So that cost is amortized over the number of viable sensors created.
Thank you for that information. This might come as a shock to you, but it was something that I already knew. The point I was making, which seems to have gone over your head, is that if the chip is fabricated on an old line, for which the capital investment has already largely been amortised, then the effective cost becomes much smaller, since what is happening is that an otherwise redundant or underused plant is being used to generate revenue. That is all on the positive side of the account, so long as the company accountants can be persuaded to see it that way.
Each wafer has defects. This means some of the resulting chips are garbage. If you average 3 defects per wafer, and the wafer makes 20 chips, you get a yield of 17 useable chips. Larger sensors mean fewer per wafer, so not only are you making fewer right off the bat, but defects cost more too. For example, if that wafer made 12 smaller chips, the three defects mean you get 9 useable - so the waste is greater. Now your cost to run the fab plant gets divided by a much smaller number of useable sensors. In my example, the ratio of sensor size is 5:3 (20 compared to 12), but the yield is 9:17 - quite different. Another way of putting it is that you lose 15% of the smaller chips, but the same wafer defect rate would have a loss of 25% of larger chips.
Yet another shock for you - I know all of that, too. So a mature semiconductor plant has a defect rate of between 0.01 and 0.03 defects per square centimetre. Lets call it 0.02 for this discussion. That means that we might expect on average a 4x3cm chip (12 sq cm) to have a rate of 0.24 or a defect every fourth chip. But a defect doesn't necessarily mean the loss of a chip. Kodak commercial grade image sensors allow up to 80 defective pixels per chip, so actually defects in the pixel array will not generally be important at that defect rate. Defects in the peripheral circuitry might cost an entire chip, so lets assume that the peripheral circuitry is 2.5 sq cm, that is a loss of about 0.1 or one in 10 chips. A 8" wafer holds 20 FF chips, which means each wafer will yield 18 usable chips. (actually close to your 17, but still a reasonable return). So then the question is - how much is a wafer to process. The cost of a raw silicon 8" wafer is about $50. Labour productivity is about 25 mask layers per person day for a small semiconductor line (big ones are more efficient) so that is about a person day per wafer. If a person day costs $100, then we have a cost per wafer of about $150, add another $30 for dopant and other material costs - and we get the cost of a FF sensor chip without plant amortisation as about $10. Thus the bulk of the cost is amortised plant costs, so - as I said and you disputed - if the chip is made on obsolescent plant, for which the investment has already been paid off, it can be made very cheaply. Actually you see this effect all over the semiconductor industry, with old parts being produced at fractions of their original price (if they are still in demand).
So that increase in sensor size costs a much larger than expected increase in cost.

Now I have just made up numbers, but the principle is correct. Increase the size of a chip and you add cost quickly.
You do not understand the cost of producing larger sensors at all.
You do not understand the cost of producing larger sensors at all.
OK, illuminate the discussion with your account of the costs of larger sensors.

--
Bob
--
Bob
 
As I have stated before I think 1500 is too low. I think they are going to aim it directly at the 7D.

I'd expect 1699 or 1799 we should start a pot on this to see who guesses the closest.

My final guess is $1,699
--

Be Content with what you have; rejoice in the way things are. When you realize there is nothing lacking, the whole world belongs to you.
 

Keyboard shortcuts

Back
Top