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If Canon released a 40MP camera today...

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I think you are right about that. They will not upgrade simply because Canon released a new camera as long as their current equipment is competitive and working fine. But if anyone do prioritize megapixels over high ISO and FPS I believe that will be studio users.

As for me pictures of high technical quality is the reason I have a business expense account for photo equipment. For personal use there can be other factors more important to me than high resolution, but technical quality decides the buying decision. In fact I usually super sample even the 5DII pictures to get to a better end result overall.
 
gipper51 said:
The point stands though that many working pros will not be switching to Nikon for the D800 because there is no financial incentive to do so. Switching is costly and time consuming, and if the camera won't make them more money the tradeoff is not worth it. If they're gunning for a large commercial client who demands higher res images, then the switch would be worth it...or to medium format. Those not making money from photography are more likely to chase the newest toys.
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If you absolutely needed 36mp in the studio right now, and absolutely need it means you're making money from it, then it would make more sense to buy a D800 with a couple of lenses while keeping your Canon gear. That's got to be a better option than going through the painful process of selling all your Canon gear to make the switch and later feel like you're chasing your tail when they eventually release a similar camera and you want to go back.

In that case you could just sell the D800 and the lenses with it and not lose much at all.
 
bobn2 said:
SethG said:
bobn2 said:
Krom said:
D800 will sell alot less cameras cause the perfect one is D4... and nikon want people to buy D4...
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Which is why they are making 30,000 D800's a month and 4,000 D4's? Funny way to go about it.
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Bob
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Bob, it's obvious, and I can't believe you didn't figure this out.

Profit margin on D800: $10*
Profit margin on D4: $4000*
  • these are estimates based on anonymous sources that I have within Nikon and may be off by as much as $4000.
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Wow, I believe that you are right. If they'd priced the D800 at $2990 they'd have sold 360,000 a month.

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Bob
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But then they'd be selling them at cost!! (note: I'm annoyed that the formatting stuff turned my asterisk on the last line into a bullet, etc. So my attempt at humor was even lamer than normal)
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  • Seth -
 
BadBeta said:
BadBeta said:
BadBeta said:
Bob, it's obvious, and I can't believe you didn't figure this out.

Profit margin on D800: $10*
Profit margin on D4: $4000*
  • these are estimates based on anonymous sources that I have within Nikon and may be off by as much as $4000.
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Wow, I believe that you are right. If they'd priced the D800 at $2990 they'd have sold 360,000 a month.
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I'm hoping they starting thinking in terms of loss leading pricing as in cell phones and inkjet printers. Give away the camera, and earn money on the lenses... (Seriously though, there is a point in there somewhere).
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I believe I read somewhere that Nikon sells about two lenses for each camera. But in most loss-leader type examples, you're dealing with consumables like ink. If you look at cellphones the same way (they're not quite the same) the consumable is the time in your contract, and you're essentially doing a pay-over-time for it.

But if all you're doing is selling two lenses to each customer, that's probably not enough to make it profitable. Especially since 90% of those lenses are the low-priced, low-end models.
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  • Seth -
 
Guy Lerner said:
FineArtPhoto said:
Canon cannot wait too long. Many professional 1 DS MK III Owners want a pro body weather sealed high resolution cam (40 MP +). Same Price like 1 DX is ok.
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That's the point I was making right there. Canon may well come out with a high MP cam, but it won't be priced anywhere near the 5D MkIII, and if it is, it will be deficient in other areas (noise etc.). Canon may well decide that high MP will appeal more to the masses, and double the pixels on the 7DII to 36MP. Noise and DR won't touch the 5D MkIII or 1DX, but it will be half the price of the D800 and that's most way people will care about.

Nikon is in a bit of a pickle. All this "noise" about the D800 and how good it is, makes you wonder what the market will be like for the D4. If I were a Nikon shooter the D4 wouldn't interest me in the least, not at the price they want for it. Canon drew a very clear line between the top features of the MkIII and 1DX, learning from the mistake they made when the MkII killed 1DsIII sales. Either Nikon is confident it can satisfy the market with enough sales of D4's, or it's about to learn a lesson in mass market economics from Canon.
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Nikon usually makes the best camera it can for that particular price point. Canon likes to slot cameras into particular brackets and will sometimes cripple a camera to keep it from cannibalizing sales of higher-end cameras (e.g., the original DReb with software and, well, everything about the 5DII besides the sensor). So it doesn't surprise me that Nikon put a lot of the advanced tech from the D4 into the D800. It DOES surprise me that Canon put a lot of the 1Dx tech into the 5DIII. I think that's a great move on Canon's part. As for Nikon, I'm guessing that they won't have any problem selling out the D4. Sure, if they were cranking out 30k D4 cams/month, they'd have a problem, but I think the number's about 4000/month.

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  • Seth -
 
That makes sense, and of course I didn't seriously think they would go for an all out loss leader philosophy.

Nevertheless, when the camera manufacturers prices cameras it might make sense for them to lower entry costs somewhat in order to lock you into their system. Most people buying a 5DIII or D800 will likely also buy at least expensive lens, and probably end up with several. And the likelyhood of them staying in the system with upgrades and so on thereafter is all that much higher - myself being an example. No lenses and I would have been on the D800 list. Now I'm waiting around instead for a while.
 
BadBeta said:
BadBeta said:
BadBeta said:
Bob, it's obvious, and I can't believe you didn't figure this out.

Profit margin on D800: $10*
Profit margin on D4: $4000*
  • these are estimates based on anonymous sources that I have within Nikon and may be off by as much as $4000.
Click to expand...
Wow, I believe that you are right. If they'd priced the D800 at $2990 they'd have sold 360,000 a month.
Click to expand...
I'm hoping they starting thinking in terms of loss leading pricing as in cell phones and inkjet printers. Give away the camera, and earn money on the lenses... (Seriously though, there is a point in there somewhere).
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That's what Nikon has done with the XQD memory cards on the D4. They're paying for the D800 sensors.
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Bob
 
BadBeta said:
That makes sense, and of course I didn't seriously think they would go for an all out loss leader philosophy.

Nevertheless, when the camera manufacturers prices cameras it might make sense for them to lower entry costs somewhat in order to lock you into their system. Most people buying a 5DIII or D800 will likely also buy at least expensive lens, and probably end up with several. And the likelyhood of them staying in the system with upgrades and so on thereafter is all that much higher - myself being an example. No lenses and I would have been on the D800 list. Now I'm waiting around instead for a while.
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Ahhh...but see, they DO do that. It's called "D3100" or Rebel T3." That gets you hooked on the system for $700 or so. Then, when you want a better camera, they sell you a 7D or a D7000. Then you discover that the cheap kit lens you got doesn't quite do what you need, so you get Lens Lust Disease. And then it's all over...
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  • Seth -
 
I knew it was a devious scheme in there somewhere... But I think those bodies are too inexpensive to really lock someone in, so it makes more sense to do it on the expensive bodies. Or both - it is likely different market groups anyway.
 
BadBeta said:
I knew it was a devious scheme in there somewhere... But I think those bodies are too inexpensive to really lock someone in, so it makes more sense to do it on the expensive bodies. Or both - it is likely different market groups anyway.
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That's a good point. I'm an advanced amateur, so my needs are different. But I would expect the average person would buy "Brand X" and then stick with it just because "Well, I already have that nifty 18-55 lens that came with it. I can save $100 by buying the next model up, instead of switching to another brand."

Actually, I can sort of relate. I have a D300 and a variety of DX lenses. I've been thinking about going full-frame for a while now. But if I did that (and, heck, even if I went with the hypothetical 24mp D400) I'd have to buy a lot of new glass because my existing lenses would probably not be up to the task of getting the best results out of a higher res sensor. So I'm looking at buying new glass anyway. At that point, I really could have switched to Canon without too much pain.

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  • Seth -
 
It's still not too late for Canon - all they have to do is pre announce a high resolution camera like they did with the 1DX. - 6 months in advance of shipping. the piece of news would make me cancel my nikon d 800 pre order right away.
 
RvPhotoTraveller said:
It's still not too late for Canon - all they have to do is pre announce a high resolution camera like they did with the 1DX. - 6 months in advance of shipping. the piece of news would make me cancel my nikon d 800 pre order right away.
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They're going to announce it right after you take possession of your D800. It's going to be the 46mp FF camera of your dreams at only $2500.
 
I have a feeling, a hunch, that Canon could surprise us with a 30MP+ crop camera called the 7D MkII. It'll have almost all the bells and whistles, minus a few key ones (like pro AF), 90% the IQ of the full frame Canons and Nikons, but cost $1,000 less than all of them.

I just can't see Canon putting out a 30MP+ FF, not for anything under $4,500 anyway (unless they intentionally cripple the AF, FPS etc.). We're certainly not going to see a Canon equivalent of the D800 in the next 3 years.
 
Guy Lerner said:
I have a feeling, a hunch, that Canon could surprise us with a 30MP+ crop camera called the 7D MkII. It'll have almost all the bells and whistles, minus a few key ones (like pro AF), 90% the IQ of the full frame Canons and Nikons, but cost $1,000 less than all of them.

I just can't see Canon putting out a 30MP+ FF, not for anything under $4,500 anyway (unless they intentionally cripple the AF, FPS etc.). We're certainly not going to see a Canon equivalent of the D800 in the next 3 years.
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Yeah not the equivalent of the D800, but yes a "crippled" FF in the sense that the 5D2 was crippled. Basically just a 5D2 with a 40mp sensor in it. I could see that going for $2500 in a year or so.
 
LIFE IS CRUEL !!!
Randplaty said:
RvPhotoTraveller said:
It's still not too late for Canon - all they have to do is pre announce a high resolution camera like they did with the 1DX. - 6 months in advance of shipping. the piece of news would make me cancel my nikon d 800 pre order right away.
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They're going to announce it right after you take possession of your D800. It's going to be the 46mp FF camera of your dreams at only $2500 ! Life is Cruel !!
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Randplaty said:
Guy Lerner said:
I have a feeling, a hunch, that Canon could surprise us with a 30MP+ crop camera called the 7D MkII. It'll have almost all the bells and whistles, minus a few key ones (like pro AF), 90% the IQ of the full frame Canons and Nikons, but cost $1,000 less than all of them.

I just can't see Canon putting out a 30MP+ FF, not for anything under $4,500 anyway (unless they intentionally cripple the AF, FPS etc.). We're certainly not going to see a Canon equivalent of the D800 in the next 3 years.
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Yeah not the equivalent of the D800, but yes a "crippled" FF in the sense that the 5D2 was crippled. Basically just a 5D2 with a 40mp sensor in it. I could see that going for $2500 in a year or so.
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Not so sure. My poll ( http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/readflat.asp?forum=1032&message=40898267 - not so scientific, I admit) seems to be indicating that they could release a 45MP version of the 5DIII at the same price and it would sell well without doing the 5DIII significant damage. That means they will make more money if they do it, with might mean that they do.
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Bob
 
No. Canon's current base CMOS/DAC architecture simply doesn't compete (in terms of DR performance) with more modern designs being used by Sony and Nikon.
Guy Lerner said:
...do you really think it would match Nikon's ISO/DR credentials (that so many posters seem to think is already better than the 5D MkIII)?
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-AC-
 
There were rumors that the 5D line will be split into two: One camera with 22 MP and one with 45 MP. Well, the first part of the rumor turned out to be true. If this was one source (what I don't know) it seem that we can expect a 45 MP camera - probably with the same body as the 5DIII. The price might be a bit higher of course ...

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http://www.freude-am-licht.de
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buellom said:
There were rumors that the 5D line will be split into two: One camera with 22 MP and one with 45 MP. Well, the first part of the rumor turned out to be true. If this was one source (what I don't know) it seem that we can expect a 45 MP camera - probably with the same body as the 5DIII. The price might be a bit higher of course ...
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Maybe not. That camera does not need 61 point AF or high ISO or fast burst. Just the cleanest ISO100 thru 800 45 mpixels possible. Just put all the money into the sensor.
buellom said:
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http://www.freude-am-licht.de
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Technical savvy is required to understand a technical argument. The rest take purported facts on faith and argue from that position or remain silent.

http://ben-egbert.smugmug.com/

Ben
 
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