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Compact Sales Crumbling

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I suppose it's all profit driven if there's a buck in it we'll see it.

Makes one wonder how much stuff the big companies sit on because their research indicates it's not going to be a mover.

I was joking when I said an "icam" but Fuji could already bring out many of the features in it's cameras. Not enough return maybe?

I couldn't guess where we'll be in ten years, anything goes in the future.

The law of Physics will still be a player and so will lenses then, large cameras will still be there leaving us with an array of lenses that may or may not be similar to today's.

Of course if there are inroads into quantum mechanics and other evolving fields then all my banter may be just that, banter, and we may have a whole new world.

All a bit heavy really, might go have a beer and calm down :)

--
Noel 100
 
morepix said:
Sunshine_boy said:
Then maybe it is time that camera makers start thinking about enhancing their cams with phone/communication capabilities!... I would gladly drop my cell phone if my slim quality camera could make a call, send an sms and keep a decent contacts list for me!...>
Click to expand...
Yes, that concept, of combining functionality of once-different technologies, is attractive. But think ahead to the possibilities: Do you want a home and a car, or a mobile home? Do you want to be able to make phone calls from your microwave oven? Do you want to have chips neuro-connected to your brain to make toast, open the garage door, file your tax return, and send text messages to your whatever? **** Tracy had a two-way radio wrist watch; good idea?

You've said what you'd like with cameras and phones. How far do you want to do go down that road? It's an interesting prospect.
Click to expand...
LOL!.. No I wouldn't want all those cranky combinations but a multifunctional device that I (unfortunately) have to carry with me all the time would be welcome. If nothing else it will stop me from having to carry two or more diverse devices. Perhaps the phone (communication) functionality is the common denominator, that is why things are added to it. If a camera was the most common requirement then we'd have things added to cams. I think the time will come where the design of that mobile 'device' will be overhauled and redesigned as a multifunctional device. It probably wont be called 'a phone' or 'cam' either. Perhaps an iDeck, iBay, iCenter, iSpot, iRob(ot), iPan(el) ...anybody's guess :)

--
Best Regards
Sunshine

ps If you see someone without a smile on, give him one of yours... :)
 
rattymouse said:
The numbers are coming in from 2011 and they are very ugly for compact sales. Down over 17%! That is a huge drop; really a titanic shift. Cell phones have finally gained enough traction with their cameras to do real, substantial (permanent?) damage to compact sales. Christmas sales were even more horrific, down over 22%.
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Could the reason not be more to do with most people already having a digital camera and not seeing a compelling reason to upgrade? Of course sales will be slower now that the film> digital switchover is pretty much complete.
 
This is not a real name said:
rattymouse said:
The numbers are coming in from 2011 and they are very ugly for compact sales. Down over 17%! That is a huge drop; really a titanic shift. Cell phones have finally gained enough traction with their cameras to do real, substantial (permanent?) damage to compact sales. Christmas sales were even more horrific, down over 22%.
Click to expand...
Could the reason not be more to do with most people already having a digital camera and not seeing a compelling reason to upgrade? Of course sales will be slower now that the film> digital switchover is pretty much complete.
Click to expand...
Already answered this. NO that is not the reason. If that were the case you'd see the compact cameras. Now what do you see? Cell phones .

--

http://fujifilmimages.aminus3.com/
 
rattymouse said:
This is not a real name said:
rattymouse said:
The numbers are coming in from 2011 and they are very ugly for compact sales. Down over 17%! That is a huge drop; really a titanic shift. Cell phones have finally gained enough traction with their cameras to do real, substantial (permanent?) damage to compact sales. Christmas sales were even more horrific, down over 22%.
Click to expand...
Could the reason not be more to do with most people already having a digital camera and not seeing a compelling reason to upgrade? Of course sales will be slower now that the film> digital switchover is pretty much complete.
Click to expand...
Already answered this. NO that is not the reason. If that were the case you'd see the compact cameras. Now what do you see? Cell phones .

--
Click to expand...
I think This-is-not-a-real-name's theory holds true for all new technology. As technologies mature, sales goes down to the point where people will only upgrade when it is necessary.

You see more people taking pictures with cell phone doesn't diminish the number of people who own and use cameras. It just means people whose cell phone has a camera is using it for spur of the moment picture taking and anything and everything on a daily basis. I use to write everything in a note pad when I go price shopping, now I take picture with the cell camera, THIS IS CAUSING NOTEPAD SALES TO GO DOWN. I used to use my MP3 player to take voice notes and listen to MP3s, but now I use my cell phone, THIS IS CAUSING MP3 SALES TO GO DOWN. The people you see using Cell Phones are everyday individual using it because it is there with them every minute of the day. 10 years ago, regular people don't take their P&S camera out with them everyday to take pictures, so how can one say cell camera is killing the P&S market just because you now see everyone using their cell phones to take photos? This only proves everyone has a cell phone with camera capability. Just like you, I am using logic to prove my point...and maybe tarnish yours a little at the same time... :)

added: anyone going on vacation is taking a camera. When I see all the tourists in my city are taking pictures with their cell phones, then I bow down to your theory. :)
 
ophion said:
ophion said:
Already answered this. NO that is not the reason. If that were the case you'd see the compact cameras. Now what do you see? Cell phones .
Click to expand...
I think This-is-not-a-real-name's theory holds true for all new technology. As technologies mature, sales goes down to the point where people will only upgrade when it is necessary.
Click to expand...
Digital technology has been constantly maturing since the end of the last century yet until recently, sales (including upgrades) continued to increase. Now that sales are declining, your reason is that the technologies are "mature", yet this isn't true at all. Innovations continue just as they always have, and one of them is the maturing of the quality of cell phone cameras, to the point that many of the huge number of cell phone owners see no need to buy a small digital camera to supplement the one in their phones that they are rarely without.

ophion said:
You see more people taking pictures with cell phone doesn't diminish the number of people who own and use cameras. It just means people whose cell phone has a camera is using it for spur of the moment picture taking and anything and everything on a daily basis. I use to write everything in a note pad when I go price shopping, now I take picture with the cell camera, THIS IS CAUSING NOTEPAD SALES TO GO DOWN. I used to use my MP3 player to take voice notes and listen to MP3s, but now I use my cell phone, THIS IS CAUSING MP3 SALES TO GO DOWN. The people you see using Cell Phones are everyday individual using it because it is there with them every minute of the day. 10 years ago, regular people don't take their P&S camera out with them everyday to take pictures, so how can one say cell camera is killing the P&S market just because you now see everyone using their cell phones to take photos? This only proves everyone has a cell phone with camera capability.
Click to expand...
Incredible. Don't you see that you're trying to use this argument two ways? New technology causes sales of note pads and mp3 players to decline but not sales of small cameras? If cell phones aren't killing the P&S market then what is, or do you think that P&S sales aren't declining?

ophion said:
added: anyone going on vacation is taking a camera. When I see all the tourists in my city are taking pictures with their cell phones, then I bow down to your theory. :)
Click to expand...
I see tourists taking pictures with cameras and cell phones. Most of the non-tourists that I see taking pictures use their cell phones. That doesn't include me since none of my cell phones have cameras. Based on this article snippet from Thom Hogan, you'd better start limbering up because it won't be long before you'll be bowing in rattymouse's direction. A photo of it will be appreciated. :)

ophion said:
An Ugly End to 2011 for Photography

Jan 10 (commentary) --We're now deep into the trend I predicted quite a few years ago: that smartphones and low-end system cameras would cannibalize compact cameras.

DCWatch reported that compact camera sales were down 17% over the first 11 months of 2011 over the same period in 2010. At the same time, interchangeable lens cameras were up 12%. Since the interchanageable lens camera market is about one-eighth the size of the compact camera market, the overall camera market probably declined.

Worse still, NPD has now reported that the five-week Christmas sales tally here in the US showed that point and shoot camera sales were down 20.8%, digital picture frames down 37.5%, and camcorders down a whopping 42.5%. It was not a imaging Christmas season, especially since Nikon and Sony interchanageable lens camera sales were limited by supply due to the Thailand floods.

Dealers were hard pressed during the Christmas buying season, partly due to product availability, but also due to that demand reduction. Penn Camera Exchange, an eight-store retailer in the Washington DC area, announced it was filing for bankruptcy protection and closing five of its stores.

The traditional response by the camera makers to lower demand for compact cameras in the US has been "we'll push those products into developing countries, instead." Unfortunately, everyone's finding that strategy isn't exactly a great one, as (1) the demand in those countries is for lower priced product, putting margin pressures on what sales you do get; and (2) cell phones are well established in those countries, and the trend towards just using the phone for stills and video is just as rampant in the developing world as it is in the developed.

. . .

The overall problem is only going to get worse, I think. On a recent trip to the Galapagos I counted cameras: smartphones outnumbered everything else in use, and by a substantial margin. That was a bit of a shocker to me, and shows how fast things have changed in the photo taking world. Not too long ago, Galapagos tourism was mostly a SLR/DSLR world.

. . .

This article also posted here. ( http://bythom.com/trend2011.htm )
Click to expand...
http://bythom.com/
 
Member said:
Already answered this. NO that is not the reason. If that were the case you'd see the compact cameras. Now what do you see? Cell phones .
Click to expand...
That only really holds true if all those people you see taking pictures with their phones would once have been there taking pictures with cameras. More likely, before they were not taking pictures at all in similar situations, because they hadn't brought their camera with them or didn't own one.
 
This is not a real name said:
This is not a real name wrote:

That only really holds true if all those people you see taking pictures with their phones would once have been there taking pictures with cameras. More likely, before they were not taking pictures at all in similar situations, because they hadn't brought their camera with them or didn't own one.
Click to expand...
Exactly right.

The fact is more people are buying cell phones than ever before, the whole market has been expanding rapidly as technology improves and prices come down.

But lets look at the stupidity of some of the arguments here about cameras.

Yes cell phones will continue to replace cheap crappy compact cameras, but it will only be cheap crappy compact cameras.

Some of the arguments being offered here only make sense if photography in it's entirety is in decline , it isn't, it is as simple as that.

And with cameras on cell phones introducing more people to photography (all be it in a crude form) the likely result is that these devices will lead more people to an interest in better photographic equipment.

So here is the good news for enthusiasts like us, the continued compacting of better equipment will continue unabated and will indeed accelerate, this is great news for people interested in compact cameras with the best possible performance.
 
My point was as technology matures, I never said digital camera technology has matured or stop innovating or even mention how our centuary old digital evolution is at the end. An example of why sales goes down regardless of alternatives.
example:
-first year-
100 families has CRT TV.
then came LCD.
10 families buy LCD .
-second year-
90 families with CRT, 10 with LCD
faster LCD panels.
LCD prices drops.
20 new families + 5 families from first years buy LCD. sales up 150%
-third year-
70 families with CRT, 30 with LCD.
new slim LCD panels.
LCD prices drop again.
70 new families + 10 families from second year buy LCD. sales up 320%
-fourth year-
ALL families has LCD
new faster and thinner LCD panels.
LCD prices drop again.

20 families buy LCD. Sales down 300%. OH NO! something must be killing LCD sales! not.

Normal consumers will not waste money upgrading again unless there is a ground breaking LCD technologies or population growth in the fictional 100 families after the fourth year, sales will remain around this level where sales will be due to breakage, wear and tear, wanting a larger LCD for families with money which we all know is the 1%. This example does kill the sale of CRT. But I can say, LCD killed CRT sales.

Unless everyone using a cell camera had the intention of buying P&S camera for EVERYDAY usage before but change their mind because of the cell camera, than yes, cell camera is killing P&S market. If cell phones didn't have cameras, you think everyone is going to be carrying a P&S around on a daily basis? I think not. Hence if the market doesn't esixts, how can it be killed? What factors contributed to the decline of P&S sales? Affordable dSLR, mirrorless with their small size and IQ, and yes, cell camera probably stole some P&S sales too. But to say it kill it, I think not.

My other arguments are valid example of what other sales cell phones have affected to a far greater degree than its affect on digital camera sale. Lots of people uses notepads, voice recorders, and mp3 players "on a daily basis" but are now using their phones. I can't help you if you don't take the time to think about the difference between things we use often and once in a blue moon.

A family of 6 goes on vacation with one camera and the kids, wife, and grand parents all pull out their cell phones, times that by 200 families on the Galapagos and you will see a sea of cell phones. Yes, cell phone out-number cameras here, but does that mean people is not buying P&S because of cell cameras, no. Why? If there was no cell cameras, every family will still have only 1 camera, just like in the past. If you are telling me every family member on a family vacation carries a camera in the past but are now using cell camera, then yes, I bow to rattymouse's logic. I don't doubt the numbers on Thom Hogan's artcles just how he is analysing them.

Camera are starting to have GPS function built in, so I should be preparing to hear how P&S is killing GPS sales in the near future. And i can tell you now, when the Tricorder comes out in 2301, its going to kill the sales of ALL devices.
 
If money is any incentive, it could be a lot sooner than 2301 ;)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-16518171
12 January 2012 Last updated at 06:18 ET

Star Trek-style 'tricorder' invention offered $10m prize
By Chris Vallance BBC News
star trek Without the tricorder The Enterprise crew would have struggled
to boldly go

A $10m (£6.5m) prize is on offer to whoever can create a Star Trek-like
medical "tricorder".

The Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize has challenged researchers to build a
tool capable of capturing "key health metrics and diagnosing a set of 15
diseases".

It needs to be light enough for would-be Dr McCoys to carry - a maximum
weight of 5lb (2.2kg).

The prize was launched at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

According to the official Star Trek technical manual, a tricorder is a
portable "sensing, computing and data communications device".
--
http://Alex_the_GREAT.photoshop.com
 
What's that? :)
--
Noel 100
 
Sit back and enjoy the ride. :)
--
Noel 100
 
A tricorder, Noel? A favorite tool of the great sci fi series Star Trek (first used on the show in 1966 but supposed to be invented in the 23rd century)....Qualcomm is offering 10 million dollars to whomever invents it. :)

--
http://Alex_the_GREAT.photoshop.com
 
Leica m9 is a compact, they can’t make enough. It still remains difficult to get an Fujifilm x100, heaps of people are dying to get their paws on a Fujifilm x-pro – they are both compacts.

The x10 is a compact, though you need skill to use, they are stunning – true some people are clearly not up to the task but it is proving very popular among the photographically adept.

Dslrs have dropped in price, promising consumers quality images without having to learn anything or engage their brain, likely a marketing strategy with a limited life – much of the kit dslr glass compares with the flat end of a coke bottle.

Likely the only dslr’s left in the medium term will be for sports photography, anachronisms sitting atop a study monopod with a large refracting telescope pointing into testosterone space – kit still costing more than a small car.

Compact sales crumbling, in Canon and Nikon dreams! :D
 
Daniel Lowe said:
rattymouse wrote:

The compact camera is slowly morphing into a more serious photographic device, the nature of the compact camera is changing for sure, but if anything the future of the compact camera is more certain than ever.
Click to expand...
I think time will prove you wrong. Your reasoning doesn't account for the fact the cell phone camera is also morphing, and not so slowly, into a more serious photographic device. I saw many people using their cell phones for snapshots at events and family gatherings during the 2011 holiday season. Those same people used compact cameras during the 2010 season. Many people, probably most, could care less about photography. They just want to be able to take decent snapshots. There's ample evidence that it won't be long before cell phone cameras provide IQ comparable to today's low end compacts.
 
Yes, an X prize (no orbs) is up for grabs :)

Will be interesting to see what comes out of this, Branson and Burt Rutan answered the call last time and so was born Virgin Galactic.
Who will be able to do the seemingly impossible this time?

A real Tricorder - "Well spock, heart 70 beats per min, blood pressure 130 on 90 and my God he's got pink undies on!"

Some of the new cams are half way there :)

--
Noel 100
 
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