Compact Sales Crumbling

The numbers are coming in from 2011 and they are very ugly for compact sales. Down over 17%! That is a huge drop; really a titanic shift. Cell phones have finally gained enough traction with their cameras to do real, substantial (permanent?) damage to compact sales. Christmas sales were even more horrific, down over 22%.

Fujifilm's X series of cameras could not have come at a better time for them. They need higher margin, more expensive products to off set this huge drop in compact sales.

The future of the compact camera is very, very uncertain.

Numbers quoted above come from a market research company and related by Thom Hogan:

http://www.bythom.com

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http://fujifilmimages.aminus3.com/

I was at a social event the other night for my kid's school, every single person was using a phone for picture taking,apart from me that is ! i was using a tiny large sensor mirrorless cam with fast pancake, the other parents were amazed by my pics while they could not understand why there pics sucked in the low light conditions, i told them it was my skills

rattymouse said:

The numbers are coming in from 2011 and they are very ugly for compact sales. Down over 17%! That is a huge drop; really a titanic shift.

Click to expand...

Considering natural disasters and the global economic slowdown I don't think this is particularly significant.

Member said:

Cell phones have finally gained enough traction with their cameras to do real, substantial (permanent?) damage to compact sales.

Click to expand...

That the market is changing is undeniable, I would suggest that cell phones will continue to eat into the crappy end of the compact market, there are a lot of people that don't give a damn about image quality in this sector.

Member said:

Christmas sales were even more horrific, down over 22%.

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Probably similar to many products, I know it was in NZ.

Member said:

The future of the compact camera is very, very uncertain.

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I don't accept that, there are plenty of people that don't want the camera 'ringing' when they are taking a picture, and plenty of enthusiast photographers that want a small camera.

The compact camera is slowly morphing into a more serious photographic device, the nature of the compact camera is changing for sure, but if anything the future of the compact camera is more certain than ever.

... but it seems to me it may not be directly ascribable to cell phones. I think the market is saturated with compact cameras.

I know a lot of keen cell phone photographers, including one who is soon exhibiting his cell phone pictures at an art gallery. I don't know one who really believes it replaces a compact camera, or who'd rely only on their phone at a wedding. They do use it to take pictures of what they had for lunch though.

However, I do know people, who don't frequent DPReview and are not equipment bugs like the rest of us, who bought a Canon S90 nearly two years ago and saw no need to advance to an S95 or an S100.

Most of the changes would make no difference, for instance, to my mother-in-law, who mostly wants to take candid baby pictures. She NEVER uses her iPhone for this, but she doesn't think she needs the S100. I, of course, disagree. ;-)

I think the drop in sales will slow down.

Meanwhile some are claiming the sky is falling for compacts while others are claiming the sky is falling for DSLRs because everyone wants mirrorless compacts. Extrapolate all the way down and DSLRs will be replaced by cellphones. My first generation EOS 5D still gives me, overall, the best pictures of any camera I own.

I just think lines between market segments are blurring, advances are smaller than people like, and fewer people trade in for "improved models" than camera companies would like. Once everyone has one, how many more can you sell?

--

“There is only you and your camera. The limitations in your photography are in yourself, for what we see is what we are.” Ernst Haas

http://garyp.zenfolio.com/p518883873/

I see the demise of low-end compacts as just the natural evolution of technology. I have a smart phone and it has taken the place of my (very expensive) Chinese electronic dictionary and my home and car stereo. It has not taken the place of my camera yet because I'm a camera "nut". But for people (especially young people) who just want to take fun photos to paste on Facebook etc - I can see cell phones dominating.

And your mobile phone pictures are on Facebook in SECONDS. Sometimes unwisely.

But those aren't always pictures you want to keep for ever.

I do have ONE friend who is taking practically ALL the pictures of the first year and a half of his baby's life with Instagram on his iPhone. But he's a rock and roll kind of guy. I hope he won't later regret it. Grungy may not be in fashion in five years.

I think EVERY new product has a curve where it zooms up in growth, saturates the market, and then slows down.

People are even buying fewer and fewer laptops now, or holding on to them for two or three years where previously they'd have replaced them annually.

The incremental changes are getting smaller, and my three year old laptop gets on the internet just as effectively as a new one. If you don't do high-end stuff you tend not to feel the need for "advances" so keenly.

--

“There is only you and your camera. The limitations in your photography are in yourself, for what we see is what we are.” Ernst Haas

http://garyp.zenfolio.com/p518883873/

Kopend05 said:

I was at a social event the other night for my kid's school, every single person was using a phone for picture taking,apart from me that is ! i was using a tiny large sensor mirrorless cam with fast pancake, the other parents were amazed by my pics while they could not understand why there pics sucked in the low light conditions, i told them it was my skills

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Yep, everywhere I go when I travel, by far the vast majority of people now use cell phones to take pictures. It is almost to the point where I see more SLR's than compacts. The middle seems to be dropping out of the camera market.

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http://fujifilmimages.aminus3.com/

Daniel Lowe said:

rattymouse said:

The numbers are coming in from 2011 and they are very ugly for compact sales. Down over 17%! That is a huge drop; really a titanic shift.

Click to expand...

Considering natural disasters and the global economic slowdown I don't think this is particularly significant.

Click to expand...

and how do the natural disasters affect a huge drop in compact sales? I recall no one saying that compact production would be down after the Thai floods and Japan problems. It was all SLR's and lenses that were hit. What compacts were unavailable? None. Production was unaffected.

SLR sales were UP so clearly the economic slow down was not a big deal. Besides, smart phone sales are through the roof now.

Daniel Lowe said:

Daniel Lowe said:

Cell phones have finally gained enough traction with their cameras to do real, substantial (permanent?) damage to compact sales.

Click to expand...

That the market is changing is undeniable, I would suggest that cell phones will continue to eat into the crappy end of the compact market, there are a lot of people that don't give a damn about image quality in this sector.

Click to expand...

No, cell phones are eating into the "good enough" camera sales. This represents the largest segment of the camera market. The highest volume sellers are what are taking the hit. It is these models of cameras that help subsidize the enthusiasts models. This helps keep costs low. Dropping compact sales will mean higher prices in future.

Daniel Lowe said:

Daniel Lowe said:

Christmas sales were even more horrific, down over 22%.

Click to expand...

Probably similar to many products, I know it was in NZ.

Daniel Lowe said:

The future of the compact camera is very, very uncertain.

Click to expand...

I don't accept that,

Click to expand...

That's what Kodak said about film. Live in denial.

Daniel Lowe said:

there are plenty of people that don't want the camera 'ringing' when they are taking a picture,

Click to expand...

On the contrary, I see cell phones as cameras everywhere I go. People use cell phones now to take once-in-a-lifetime shots when they visit major historical places of interest. (To me that is terrible; if I visit the Great Wall of China for example, I will have the damn finest camera I can. But if you look around, the VAST majority of people will be using cell phones).

Daniel Lowe said:

and plenty of enthusiast photographers that want a small camera.

Click to expand...

Yep, but they cant carry a market cheaply.

Daniel Lowe said:

The compact camera is slowly morphing into a more serious photographic device, the nature of the compact camera is changing for sure, but if anything the future of the compact camera is more certain than ever.

Click to expand...

Dream on....

--

http://fujifilmimages.aminus3.com/

GaryJP said:

People are even buying fewer and fewer laptops now, or holding on to them for two or three years where previously they'd have replaced them annually.

The incremental changes are getting smaller, and my three year old laptop gets on the internet just as effectively as a new one. If you don't do high-end stuff you tend not to feel the need for "advances" so keenly.

Click to expand...

But maybe that's because tablets are becoming more popular than laptops.

I think the most crucial question concerning photography these days is what is going to happen to all the photographs we take in the future. In film days, we had negatives that lasted hundreds of years. Now, most people's photographs just end up being stored on their computers - there's going to be a whole wealth of historical information that's going to get lost. My first photographic job was working in the conservation department of a library where we copied and categorised old photographs which were then made available to the public for viewing.

I make books from my favourite photos and others I put on to "long-life" CDs. But no-one really knows how long these are going to last. But the bulk of my photos just lounge away on my computer.

rattymouse said:

The numbers are coming in from 2011 and they are very ugly for compact sales. Down over 17%! That is a huge drop; really a titanic shift. Cell phones have finally gained enough traction with their cameras to do real, substantial (permanent?) damage to compact sales. Christmas sales were even more horrific, down over 22%.

The future of the compact camera is very, very uncertain.

Click to expand...

Then maybe it is time that camera makers start thinking about enhancing their cams with phone/communication capabilities!... I would gladly drop my cell phone if my slim quality camera could make a call, send an sms and keep a decent contacts list for me!...

It may sound funny but I think there will be a further integration of functionality in the 'thing' you carry in your pocket/bag at all times. Whether it will be still called a cell-phone, a cam-phone or a jack-phone will be totally immaterial...

Member said:

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http://fujifilmimages.aminus3.com/

Click to expand...

--
Best Regards
Sunshine

ps If you see someone without a smile on, give him one of yours...

Jade Willow said:

I think the most crucial question concerning photography these days is what is going to happen to all the photographs we take in the future. In film days, we had negatives that lasted hundreds of years. Now, most people's photographs just end up being stored on their computers - there's going to be a whole wealth of historical information that's going to get lost. My first photographic job was working in the conservation department of a library where we copied and categorised old photographs which were then made available to the public for viewing.

Click to expand...

There is an entire generation who believe that grainy Instamatic quality photos from an iPhone are good enough. They don't understand nor care about the lost decades of digital ephemera.

For my part, every 2-3 years I move everything over to new media even if its unnecessary. So I'm pretty sure all my every so precious memories are going to be available. My wife is a rabid scrapbooker, she handles the fixed form of the photos. So the more relevant / interesting stuff gets printed and lovingly shoved into a scrap book.

-- Bob
http://blog.trafficshaper.com
http://www.vimeo.com/boborama/videos
http://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?user=bob0rama
http://public.fotki.com/boborama/

rattymouse said:

and how do the natural disasters affect a huge drop in compact sales? I recall no one saying that compact production would be down after the Thai floods and Japan problems. It was all SLR's and lenses that were hit. What compacts were unavailable? None. Production was unaffected.

Click to expand...

Production may have been unaffected but it didn't exactly help business or consumer confidence now did it.

Member said:

SLR sales were UP so clearly the economic slow down was not a big deal.

Click to expand...

What sort of DSLR's Rattymouse? the new, cheap, stripped down, compact entry level models that's what.

Member said:

Besides, smart phone sales are through the roof now.

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Developing market, new technology = anomaly. Besides, they are also a way for businesses to save money . They are now used prolifically in business and the public service sector which has nothing to to with the consumer you are referring to.

For example, the entire NZ police force was just issued with smart phones, I am sure there are similar stories in other countries.

Member said:

No, cell phones are eating into the "good enough" camera sales.

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Good enough for what? facebook?

Member said:

This represents the largest segment of the camera market. The highest volume sellers are what are taking the hit. It is these models of cameras that help subsidize the enthusiasts models. This helps keep costs low. Dropping compact sales will mean higher prices in future.

Click to expand...

Oh no!! what will Sony, Samsung, and Panasonic do to keep costs of their cameras down? oh that's right THEY MAKE CELL PHONES

If anything, smart phones will help subsidise compact camera development, are you serious??

Member said:

Member said:

there are plenty of people that don't want the camera 'ringing' when they are taking a picture,

Click to expand...

On the contrary, I see cell phones as cameras everywhere I go. People use cell phones now to take once-in-a-lifetime shots when they visit major historical places of interest. (To me that is terrible; if I visit the Great Wall of China for example, I will have the damn finest camera I can. But if you look around, the VAST majority of people will be using cell phones).

Click to expand...

Proper photography is not a pursuit for the masses then, big deal.

Member said:

Member said:

The compact camera is slowly morphing into a more serious photographic device, the nature of the compact camera is changing for sure, but if anything the future of the compact camera is more certain than ever.

Click to expand...

Dream on....

Click to expand...

Oh really.

How can you ignore the glaringly obvious 'compacting' of just about every type of camera in existence. DSLR's are getting smaller and lighter, we have tiny interchangeable lens compacts we have mirrorless compacts we have compacts with APSC sensors, fast prime lense compacts , and whatever is coming next is likely to be more compact .

I don't think I am the one that needs to open my eyes from a 'dream' like state.

Daniel Lowe said:

rattymouse said:

and how do the natural disasters affect a huge drop in compact sales? I recall no one saying that compact production would be down after the Thai floods and Japan problems. It was all SLR's and lenses that were hit. What compacts were unavailable? None. Production was unaffected.

Click to expand...

Production may have been unaffected but it didn't exactly help business or consumer confidence now did it.

Daniel Lowe said:

SLR sales were UP so clearly the economic slow down was not a big deal.

Click to expand...

What sort of DSLR's Rattymouse? the new, cheap, stripped down, compact entry level models that's what.

Click to expand...

They didnt specify. You do realize that entry level SLR's are getting more capable, not less. Take an entry level SLR and put it up against one from 5 years ago and see how "stripped down" they are. Heck, take a Canon 1100D and place it against their high end film SLR and see how much better it is.

Daniel Lowe said:

Daniel Lowe said:

Besides, smart phone sales are through the roof now.

Click to expand...

Developing market, new technology = anomaly. Besides, they are also a way for businesses to save money . They are now used prolifically in business and the public service sector which has nothing to to with the consumer you are referring to.

For example, the entire NZ police force was just issued with smart phones, I am sure there are similar stories in other countries.

Daniel Lowe said:

No, cell phones are eating into the "good enough" camera sales.

Click to expand...

Good enough for what? facebook?

Click to expand...

Yes, exactly. Bang on. No one prints anymore.

Daniel Lowe said:

Daniel Lowe said:

This represents the largest segment of the camera market. The highest volume sellers are what are taking the hit. It is these models of cameras that help subsidize the enthusiasts models. This helps keep costs low. Dropping compact sales will mean higher prices in future.

Click to expand...

Oh no!! what will Sony, Samsung, and Panasonic do to keep costs of their cameras down? oh that's right THEY MAKE CELL PHONES

Click to expand...

Good thing Fujifilm has a nice line of cell phones.

Daniel Lowe said:

If anything, smart phones will help subsidise compact camera development, are you serious??

Click to expand...

Right, because successful companies are always looking to invest in markets that shank by 18% a year. That's where the smart money goes.

Daniel Lowe said:

Daniel Lowe said:

Daniel Lowe said:

there are plenty of people that don't want the camera 'ringing' when they are taking a picture,

Click to expand...

On the contrary, I see cell phones as cameras everywhere I go. People use cell phones now to take once-in-a-lifetime shots when they visit major historical places of interest. (To me that is terrible; if I visit the Great Wall of China for example, I will have the damn finest camera I can. But if you look around, the VAST majority of people will be using cell phones).

Click to expand...

Proper photography is not a pursuit for the masses then, big deal.

Click to expand...

It is to the camera companies. Wake up.

Daniel Lowe said:

Daniel Lowe said:

Daniel Lowe said:

The compact camera is slowly morphing into a more serious photographic device, the nature of the compact camera is changing for sure, but if anything the future of the compact camera is more certain than ever.

Click to expand...

Dream on....

Click to expand...

Oh really.

How can you ignore the glaringly obvious 'compacting' of just about every type of camera in existence. DSLR's are getting smaller and lighter, we have tiny interchangeable lens compacts we have mirrorless compacts we have compacts with APSC sensors, fast prime lense compacts , and whatever is coming next is likely to be more compact .

I don't think I am the one that needs to open my eyes from a 'dream' like state.

Click to expand...

Hilarious!! I mean really hilarious. What can be smaller than ZERO ? Yes, everything is getting smaller. That is a fact. The other relevant fact, whether you open your eyes or not (it doesnt matter), is that camera phones are good enough for the vast majority of people. Thus, compact cameras no longer need to be carried around. They SHRINK to NOTHING! Pure perfection in the eyes of Joe McPublic. Keep on getting smaller until they disappear.

You must not travel much, or if you do, you have blinders tied on so tight no blood gets to your head. Travel to somewhere that people take tons of photos. No doubt at all, you will see that the vast majority of people are using their cell phones to capture the memories of being at that location. When I travel to historical sites, well well over 50% of the people pull out a cell phone to take a shot. These are former compact buyers, not SLR buyers.

You'd make a PERFECT Kodak executive.

--

http://fujifilmimages.aminus3.com/

just to add..the Danish Parliment gave each member an Iphone last year,and now a kindergarden is buying 200 Ipads for the children..who use it to take video among other things....a few weeks ago hurricane winds hit here and people were out at the ocean trying to capture it on their smartphones!!! which they could not even hold steady..
--
LOVE LIFE & LAUGHTER

Are you sure it's just cell phones?
Or maybe most people don't update their compact camera every year?

I've not bought a compact since the F70 and I probably won't either (got lots of Nikon stuff to get for my D90) ;-)

We could use a few less players in the market Kodak will probably go

How many compacts on the market currently?

Time to consolidate?

Echos of the auto industry, although we don't have an icar yet.
--
Noel 100

Barry Fitzgerald said:

Are you sure it's just cell phones?
Or maybe most people don't update their compact camera every year?

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That would explain the drop in sales. Not the drop compact sightings. All I see are cell phones, cell phones and cell phones. Compacts are clearly in retreat.

Member said:

I've not bought a compact since the F70 and I probably won't either (got lots of Nikon stuff to get for my D90) ;-)

We could use a few less players in the market Kodak will probably go

Click to expand...

--

http://fujifilmimages.aminus3.com/

Sunshine_boy said:

Then maybe it is time that camera makers start thinking about enhancing their cams with phone/communication capabilities!... I would gladly drop my cell phone if my slim quality camera could make a call, send an sms and keep a decent contacts list for me!...>

Click to expand...

Yes, that concept, of combining functionality of once-different technologies, is attractive. But think ahead to the possibilities: Do you want a home and a car, or a mobile home? Do you want to be able to make phone calls from your microwave oven? Do you want to have chips neuro-connected to your brain to make toast, open the garage door, file your tax return, and send text messages to your whatever? **** Tracy had a two-way radio wrist watch; good idea?

You've said what you'd like with cameras and phones. How far do you want to do go down that road? It's an interesting prospect.
--
http://www.pbase.com/morepix

We already have washing machines, fridges and freezers that have internet connection. And new TV's coming out that have voice control, no more remotes.

Technology has become so cheap manufacturers can throw in novelties to attract customers. Next step, your main TV internet conected plus camera instant video links. Just like laptops and note books.

I bet apple thought of an "icam", a dedicated camera with all the fruit. WiFi, Blue Tooth and phone network connection. Easy to created but obviously no market.

I see compacts as a casualty of advancing technology, who knows what the demographics will be like in 10 years. Technology moves at an exponential rate and compacts could easily be obsolete in the future. I suppose if we go another 10 years we'll find out.

--
Noel 100

NOEL 100 said:

I see compacts as a casualty of advancing technology, who knows what the demographics will be like in 10 years. Technology moves at an exponential rate and compacts could easily be obsolete in the future. I suppose if we go another 10 years we'll find out.

Click to expand...

Exactly!! Perhaps there will be contact lens cameras that you put in your eyes and blink to take a photo of what's in front of you!! Maybe that sounds completely ridiculous, but if someone had of told me a few years back that I would be carrying around a tiny device which could access the internet, make phone calls, take photos and give me my position via GPS - I wouldn't have believed them.