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This is the terrible fix Nikon is in.

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rgolub said:
Dabbler said:
If Nikon can ship D800 and perhaps D4 close to March 2012 they will prevent people from jumping ship and buying Canon's new 1D X due out in March. They will miss pro's trying to buy new bodies by the end of the fiscal year for the tax write off.
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Do you really think there is a significant number of photographers that wander back and forth between brands when their current camera isn't refreshed often enough? Really?

Now, the manufacturers and dealers would just love customers like this, but I think it pretty much a fantasy. It's a whole lot easier to stamp and pout on an Internet forum than to plunk down the cash to get a new body (and lenses and flashes and whatnot).

The pros I know don't buy bodies for the write off. They buy them when they need them.
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Exactly, including entire systems. I know a pro friend of mine that went from Nikon system - to Canon - to Nikon. He makes around $250,000 a year. MOST don't even come close. He buys what he needs. HOWEVER, this probably is a small percentage of Nikon's revenue. Mostly its a status thing. Like, we are the best. Nikon has long catered to the top level pros for this very status thing - as has Canon.
rgolub said:
--
RG
http://www.lostrange.com
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--
Steve Bingham
http://www.dustylens.com
http://www.ghost-town-photography.com
 
bobn2 said:
Sure, but the loss of market share is by no means inevitable. In fact, these events can turn out to have silver linings. Exhaust the inventory of old model stock and provide a solid paunch demand for the new model.
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In about a year or two, and only maybe.
bobn2 said:
I agree with that, what people need to recover is economic activity.
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Now you're talking. This is the problem, and always has been the problem well before the tsunami.

The last thing Nikon should do, or will do, is release an inexpensive camera that has high MP and 1080 HD in FX, the reasons are obvious. Conversely, the other last thing they should do or will do is release another $8,000 camera of any type. The reasons are also obvious, though different.

This is why they have done, and will continue to do, nothing new in FX.

I rest my case.
 
FYI, FX12mp to FX36mp is a huge jump. Nikon will loss so much potential PROFIT bypassing 18, 24, and 30 mega pixel camera. Are they willing to loss millions in sure profit just to satisfy whiners here, I hope not. Lost profit is not good for R&D department, Nikon clearly needs this funds, especially in video department. What is wrong with second generation 24mp camera with 1080p video, it is practically a D3X but way cheaper with a better sensor, video, and a dust shaker.
 
rgolub said:
Dabbler said:
If Nikon can ship D800 and perhaps D4 close to March 2012 they will prevent people from jumping ship and buying Canon's new 1D X due out in March. They will miss pro's trying to buy new bodies by the end of the fiscal year for the tax write off.
Click to expand...
Do you really think there is a significant number of photographers that wander back and forth between brands when their current camera isn't refreshed often enough? Really?

Now, the manufacturers and dealers would just love customers like this, but I think it pretty much a fantasy. It's a whole lot easier to stamp and pout on an Internet forum than to plunk down the cash to get a new body (and lenses and flashes and whatnot).
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No—not photographers—gear-heads. Too much money, define their self-worth by what they own and the success of the companies of which they are fanbois. Photographers know that they can shoot with anything and do just fine.

--
larry!
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VivaLasVegas said:
FYI, FX12mp to FX36mp is a huge jump.
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No. Taking into account the time passed since D3 was introduced and the fact that D3X had 24MP, it's nothing but a reasonable jump. A jump that will impress at the time of announcement and for the better part of the product cycle.
VivaLasVegas said:
Nikon will loss so much potential PROFIT bypassing 18, 24, and 30 mega pixel camera.
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If the specs I've been hearing prove correct, the new FX flagship will have 24MP. I see you're juggling with apples and oranges and they're dropping on the floor...
VivaLasVegas said:
Are they willing to loss millions in sure profit just to satisfy whiners here, I hope not.
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The fear of 36MP boils down to not knowing much about sensor technology. I personally hope that it's the engineering department, the heart of the company who decides what sensor to use.

Oh, and it is you who are whining, surely you can see that?

--
regards
Janne Mankila, Finland
 
I don't like your message and here's why:
  • you say that Nikon is in a "terrible fix". This is false. Sure it's not nice for them to have production below part for about 4 months on ONE of their plants, at that this should coincide with the holidays. It will hurt the financial year but it won't kill the company (though it WILL give some sleepless nights to the executives)
  • you make bad innuendos about "cheap labour in Thailand". Well QUALIFIED labour in Thailand isn't that cheap. And cheap labour in Thailand is not really cheaper than certainly in the U.S. where most states don't even have a minimum wage law, and for those that do, that minimum wage ir around just $5 an hour. Which given the cost of living in the U.S. (vs Thailand), leaves anyone speechless. A Thai worked paid $1 an hour (but the lowliest workers are closer to $300 which would be $2 an hour) actually probably lives much BETTER than a slave hamburger flipper or WMT cleaner in the U.S.
  • you make smart ass comments on how it was so dumb to build a plant on land that could be covered in water. Well, sorry to rain on your party, but these are record record rainfalls and inundations, and the Nikon plant is far from alone in its corner. Maybe you also want to tell the Thai government that they were idiots to have built their capital there? Maybe you also want to tell that to the New Orleans authorities? At least my bet is that the Thais will do a better and faster job fixing their city, than the U.S.l did fixing New Orleans (it's still a total mess).
And if you are so smart and know the future, how come you're neither a Nikon executive, nor a member of the Thai government?

Please stop this, it only makes you look... not very good.
 
Wow. Settle down, my friend. I meant no harm. This is an open forum and I have been using Nikon cameras since 1954 - quite possibly before you were born (guessing from your manner of presentation). I own three (excluding the 20 antiques I am saving) and about a dozen lenses. I was shooting with the Nikon SP camera in the 1950s and the F series in the 60s. I made a damn good living for 40-50 years with Nikon cameras.

1- I never said anything would kill the Nikon company. How did you come up with that?

2- So why do YOU think they build cameras outside Japan? That the Thailand labor is more skilled than the Japanese labor? It's just smart business.

3- You know very little about labor rates in the states! You are pretty much wrong on all accounts.

4- Parts of Thailand get heavy flooding almost yearly although this is the worst in 50 years. There are many provinces in Thailand that do not get flooded - ever.

5- "leaves anyone speechless"? "smart ass comments"?

6- Why are you telling me what I should do? Are you the forum policeman?

I am not pleased with our handling of New Orleans, but it is far from being a "total mess" at this time. The really sad part, as in Thailand, is the tens of thousands of good people that were displaced. The bigger the government, the slower it moves. Living in a country with only 7.8 million people (Switzerland) whose per capita income is among the highest in the world, as are the wages, it is easy to cast dispersions on the USA and how we handle our problems (New Orleans).
antoineb said:
I don't like your message and here's why:
  • you say that Nikon is in a "terrible fix". This is false. Sure it's not nice for them to have production below part for about 4 months on ONE of their plants, at that this should coincide with the holidays. It will hurt the financial year but it won't kill the company (though it WILL give some sleepless nights to the executives)
  • you make bad innuendos about "cheap labour in Thailand". Well QUALIFIED labour in Thailand isn't that cheap. And cheap labour in Thailand is not really cheaper than certainly in the U.S. where most states don't even have a minimum wage law, and for those that do, that minimum wage ir around just $5 an hour. Which given the cost of living in the U.S. (vs Thailand), leaves anyone speechless. A Thai worked paid $1 an hour (but the lowliest workers are closer to $300 which would be $2 an hour) actually probably lives much BETTER than a slave hamburger flipper or WMT cleaner in the U.S.
  • you make smart ass comments on how it was so dumb to build a plant on land that could be covered in water. Well, sorry to rain on your party, but these are record record rainfalls and inundations, and the Nikon plant is far from alone in its corner. Maybe you also want to tell the Thai government that they were idiots to have built their capital there? Maybe you also want to tell that to the New Orleans authorities? At least my bet is that the Thais will do a better and faster job fixing their city, than the U.S.l did fixing New Orleans (it's still a total mess).
And if you are so smart and know the future, how come you're neither a Nikon executive, nor a member of the Thai government?

Please stop this, it only makes you look... not very good.
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--
Steve Bingham
http://www.dustylens.com
http://www.ghost-town-photography.com
 
A D4 makes more sense after the recent news from Canon. Be that as it may, I agree that next summer is looking good for whatever new DSLRs will be released next. A release, however, doesn't prevent Nikon from announcing something sooner ala Canon ala Nikon (I hear Nikon has gone the vaporware route quite often in the past).
Steve Bingham said:
This tells me we might well have to wait until next Summer for that new DX lens and D800.
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--
Rick Knepper, photographer, photography not for sale, check my profile.
 
I agree, Rick. Any announcement would be nice! Especially for those who like to plan ahead! :)
Rick Knepper said:
A D4 makes more sense after the recent news from Canon. Be that as it may, I agree that next summer is looking good for whatever new DSLRs will be released next. A release, however, doesn't prevent Nikon from announcing something sooner ala Canon ala Nikon (I hear Nikon has gone the vaporware route quite often in the past).
Rick Knepper said:
This tells me we might well have to wait until next Summer for that new DX lens and D800.
Click to expand...
--
Rick Knepper, photographer, photography not for sale, check my profile.
Click to expand...
--
Steve Bingham
http://www.dustylens.com
http://www.ghost-town-photography.com
 
I stand by what I said about US minimum wage:
  • most of the states of the USA do NOT have a minimum wage law
  • where there is a minimum wage law, it typically hovers around $5 (or even less) which obviously fails to allow anyone to support life in the developed world. Scores of various workers in the USA know about this. Several books have detailed this fact. Various corporations such as Wal*Mart indeed do employ a large proportion of minimum wage slave workers
About Thailand, again if you're so smart then why didn't you tell Nikon? Most likely the executives knew about the flooding risk, and based their decision on a mix of land cost, convenience and access to raw materials, access to skilled labour etc. It's so tiring when a disaster happens and someone, who by the way takes part in zero decision cycles, comes and says "hey, I could have told ya". Well if that's so, then show us the letter where you had warned the Nikon board.

Finally of course Thai labour is cheaper than Japanese labour. Your original message doesn't make it sound pretty - but luckily your response corrects this.

Bottom-line as far as I'm concerned, is that Nikon will probably be fine, that of course their current profits will be hit, that anyone who has done their research and conclude that bankruptcy won't happen might consider investing in the shares.

And that all of us Nikon customers should wish Nikon the best in those difficult times, instead of stating "I told you so" especially where one never told them so.
 
VivaLasVegas said:
FYI, FX12mp to FX36mp is a huge jump. Nikon will loss so much potential PROFIT bypassing 18, 24, and 30 mega pixel camera. Are they willing to loss millions in sure profit just to satisfy whiners here, I hope not. Lost profit is not good for R&D department, Nikon clearly needs this funds, especially in video department. What is wrong with second generation 24mp camera with 1080p video, it is practically a D3X but way cheaper with a better sensor, video, and a dust shaker.
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This is such an ironic and silly post. First you say 36 MP in FX is too huge a jump and Nikon will lose money if they do this. Then you say what's wrong with 24 MP and 1080 HD in FX and "way cheaper". Holly cow you just said you wanted what they shouldn't do. 24 or 36, makes no difference, they are both double the MP over the D3s, if that's what you think they will or should do you're dreaming, Nikon will never release a cheap 24 MP with 1080 HD in FX. A super high end expensive one, maybe.
 
ScottMac said:
VivaLasVegas said:
FYI, FX12mp to FX36mp is a huge jump. Nikon will loss so much potential PROFIT bypassing 18, 24, and 30 mega pixel camera. Are they willing to loss millions in sure profit just to satisfy whiners here, I hope not. Lost profit is not good for R&D department, Nikon clearly needs this funds, especially in video department. What is wrong with second generation 24mp camera with 1080p video, it is practically a D3X but way cheaper with a better sensor, video, and a dust shaker.
Click to expand...
This is such an ironic and silly post. First you say 36 MP in FX is too huge a jump and Nikon will lose money if they do this. Then you say what's wrong with 24 MP and 1080 HD in FX and "way cheaper". Holly cow you just said you wanted what they shouldn't do. 24 or 36, makes no difference, they are both double the MP over the D3s, if that's what you think they will or should do you're dreaming, Nikon will never release a cheap 24 MP with 1080 HD in FX. A super high end expensive one, maybe.
Click to expand...
looks like they arent making the D700 anymore... from todays statement...... will
be interesting what comes next....
 
antoineb said:
I stand by what I said about US minimum wage:
  • most of the states of the USA do NOT have a minimum wage law
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The states don't need a minimum wage law. There is a federal law. Exceptions below the minimum are typically only for trainees and people working where tips are considered part of the competition. The current federal minimum wage is $7.25.

There actually is a competitive market for labor around most of the US and every time I've looked at McD or WalMart ads they are advertising above minimum wage for most positions. Walmart has a large distribution center near me and is advertising for stock pickers at $15 - 18 per hour.
--
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I agree that it will be a big challenge for Nikon.

However, a 5 month turnaround for essentially rebuilding their production capabilities from scratch is nothing short of amazing.

Japanese companies typically do not announce such targets lightly. Don't count them out just yet...
 
One of the popular late night comedians here in the states (of which you are so knowledgable), Jon Stewart, often mentions those with great self import and limited actual knowledge, calling into question how far up their own butt, they have their heads...

"slave" labor, missing the federal minimum wage laws which supercede state law - and you are so certain you know what you are talking about. Wonder if you have any better grasp on reality about the other topics you rant on...

And Jon is right, I DO wonder how far up your butt your head is...

And last time I checked, people from all over the world were trying to get into the US to live - legally or illegally - not so much Thailand, or even Switzerland...
 
rayman 2 said:
ScottMac said:
VivaLasVegas said:
FYI, FX12mp to FX36mp is a huge jump. Nikon will loss so much potential PROFIT bypassing 18, 24, and 30 mega pixel camera. Are they willing to loss millions in sure profit just to satisfy whiners here, I hope not. Lost profit is not good for R&D department, Nikon clearly needs this funds, especially in video department. What is wrong with second generation 24mp camera with 1080p video, it is practically a D3X but way cheaper with a better sensor, video, and a dust shaker.
Click to expand...
This is such an ironic and silly post. First you say 36 MP in FX is too huge a jump and Nikon will lose money if they do this. Then you say what's wrong with 24 MP and 1080 HD in FX and "way cheaper". Holly cow you just said you wanted what they shouldn't do. 24 or 36, makes no difference, they are both double the MP over the D3s, if that's what you think they will or should do you're dreaming, Nikon will never release a cheap 24 MP with 1080 HD in FX. A super high end expensive one, maybe.
Click to expand...
looks like they arent making the D700 anymore... from todays statement...... will
be interesting what comes next....
Click to expand...
Are you referring to this http://www.nikon-image.com/support/whatsnew/2011/wnew111108.htm ? It specifically refers to Japan and input on another thread indicates it is to do with Japanese electrical regulations associated with electrical devices using batteries with exposed contacts (like D300s and D700).
--
Dave
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http://www.pbase.com/dgrosser
 
It is not doubling, it is an increment of 6 increase. Example; 12+6= 18 (a certain profit), 18+6= 24 (a certain profit), 24+6= 30 (a certain profit), 30+6= 36 (a certain profit). I don't think Nikon is that gracious to whiners to bypass millions of sure profit like what I said. Another example, Canon 1Ds1 11mp(a certain profit), 1Ds2 16mp(a certain profit), 1Ds3 21mp(a certain profit). You see how Canon maximize that(certain profit). Sure Nikon can release a 36mp FX with 4k video, but, it also lost millions of profits in doing so. Now remove your hat as a Nikon owner and put yourself as CEO of Nikon. Nikon is in business to make $,$$$,$$$'s.

What do you want or what do you think Nikon will release, it is ok to guesstimate nothing is wrong with that in my book?
ScottMac said:
VivaLasVegas said:
FYI, FX12mp to FX36mp is a huge jump. Nikon will loss so much potential PROFIT bypassing 18, 24, and 30 mega pixel camera. Are they willing to loss millions in sure profit just to satisfy whiners here, I hope not. Lost profit is not good for R&D department, Nikon clearly needs this funds, especially in video department. What is wrong with second generation 24mp camera with 1080p video, it is practically a D3X but way cheaper with a better sensor, video, and a dust shaker.
Click to expand...
This is such an ironic and silly post. First you say 36 MP in FX is too huge a jump and Nikon will lose money if they do this. Then you say what's wrong with 24 MP and 1080 HD in FX and "way cheaper". Holly cow you just said you wanted what they shouldn't do. 24 or 36, makes no difference, they are both double the MP over the D3s, if that's what you think they will or should do you're dreaming, Nikon will never release a cheap 24 MP with 1080 HD in FX. A super high end expensive one, maybe.
Click to expand...
 
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