However, the key is that eventuall all high-end technology trickles
down to affordable consumer based products.
No, not all. I don't have (and cannot afford) a personal jet
aircraft. And not because people haven't tried making them cheaper.
One day (and it won't
be too far away), a PowerShot S-something or a PowerShot
G-something will have a full-frame sensor. And when that day comes,
these specialized lenses will become useless.
Why on earth would a PowerShot need a full-frame sensor? I'll
assume you mean a "digital Rebel". But whatever price point you
pick for a full frame SLR, I'll ask for one at 0.5x that price. So,
you will have to get the full-frame price down to $500 or so (the
price of a film rebel body + some for electronics and inflation)
before it will not make any more sense.
"A cost of a sensor is geometrically proportioned to its size" -
this isn't a law, it is the current state of economy in the
processes of producing and manufacturing sensors. As full-frame
sensors become more widely available and as the technologies that
produce them become more economical, then the price of using them
ultimately decreases.
Um, why do you think that this
is "the current state of economy"?
If cheap, large, semi-conducter devices could be made, then the
person or company who figured out how to do it would be
disgustingly rich. Digital imaging sensors would be a tiny part of
this market.
You cannot compare a CPU die shrink to that of a sensor. Because a
sensor can be full-frame whether or not there are more pixels in
it. Contax's N Digital has a 6MP full-frame sensor, but yet the D60
is not.
And the Contax costs $5k to $6k and the D60 $2k. Hmm, wonder why
THAT is ;-)
The process of manufacturing processors is that they need
to squeeze more transistors into smaller and smaller sizes because
of many factors such as signal strength, signal continuity,
materials, power requirements, and such.
Still, the price (costs are secret) of a processor is still more
strongly correlated to size than any other factor. That is why the
price can go DOWN even when the performance goes up.
The trend for physical sensor size is to proceed to 35mm film area.
Whether or not more megapixels are crammed into the sensor as it
increases in dimension is unrelated. They could make 2MP full-frame
if they wanted to, being that the pixel desnsity decreases and
pixel pitch increases.
And this is precisely the point. A full-frame 2MP sensor will cost
pretty much the same as a 6MP full-frame sensor or even a 14MP
full-frame sensor. So there is no (marketing) reason to make such
a beast. (Actually, there do appear to be some physical reasons why
very large pixels do not work that well, but that's beside the
point.)
The trend is not to produce smaller sensors,
The trend
is to produce smaller sensors -- they just are not
useful in SLRS. One reason digital cameras have gotten cheaper is
that the sensors have gotten smaller. Once, the 1/2" sensor was
common. Now look at the P&S market: the inexpensive cameras have
1/2.7" or even 1/3.6" sensors. Two guesses why and the first does
not count.
Would it be economical and wise
for Canon to produce a lens line for a body that will eventually be
gone? The D30 has already been discontinued, and its life span is
miniscule compared to an EOS lens of any calibur.
I am assuming that Canon will always have a Dxx camera in their
lineup which will be about one half the cost of the full-frame
sensor. Under this scenario, the body does not "go away", so it
does remain feasible to produce the lens. Just rephrasing your
assertion another way does not prove your point.
--
Erik