Do not underestimate Nikon

I will be the first one to admit that the new Nikon 1 system is:

• still too big and heavy
• much too expensive
• the sensor is way too small
• has very anemic lens selection
• has insufficient IQ improvement over high end P&S cameras

to unseat M4/3 or NEX in the market among serious photo enthusiasts.

However, this product will still be a raging success, and a very profitable one for Nikon. Because it's made by Nikon.

And Nikon, while not being an innovator today, is still extremely effective at marketing things. You can expect product placement in every Costco and BestBuy store in America, rapid price discounting, a flurry of new lens offerings, and an advertising blitz that will make Ashton Kutcher even richer.

Simply put..... never bet against Nikon's marketing muscle. These guys know what they are doing, and they are very good at doing it.

Folks like us get obsessive about specs, but the wider market doesn't give a hoot about them. They just want a brand that has a good reputation, and is what everyone else is using, and today that means "Nikon or Canon."

These cameras may not have broad appeal to the most demanding shooters, but neither does any other MILC system today (except perhaps top end models like the NEX7, EP3 or GH2).

These Nikon 1 cameras will appeal to a vast number of people who don't know much about photography, but know they heard somewhere that "Nikon makes very good cameras" (which... they actually do.)

And as an added bonus, the Nikon 1 line might help sell a lot of D3100 and D5100 cameras by making them look like a real bargain....
--
Marty
http://www.fluidr.com/photos/marty4650/sets/72157606210120132
http://www.flickr.com/photos/marty4650/sets/72157606210120132/show/
my blog: http://marty4650.blogspot.com/
Olympus E-30
Olympus E-P1

Perhaps the initial high price will make their camera seem like a deal of the century thing when they reduce it to a 'normal' level, possibly more so than if given a realistic price directly?

Marty4650 said:

Simply put..... never bet against Nikon's marketing muscle. These guys know what they are doing, and they are very good at doing it.

Click to expand...

Interesting. Thom Hogan commented that Nikon is top of the mirrorless heap when it comes to product placement ... being able to put cameras on shelves ... but claims that they're actually pretty poor at marketing.

Marty4650 said:

Folks like us get obsessive about specs, but the wider market doesn't give a hoot about them.

Click to expand...

I think the wider market will see:

• Bigger sensor than p&s
• Much smaller than a DSLR
• Fast, responsive system
• Slo mo video and 60fps sequences

This is going to be enough to sell some cameras.

In fact, you have to wonder if the advantages of m43 and NEX will be known to much of the target market.

• Dennis

--
Gallery at http://kingofthebeasts.smugmug.com

Marty4650 said:

to unseat M4/3 or NEX in the market among serious photo enthusiasts.

Click to expand...

Nikon is not targeting this market segment now... so you could skip the introduction.

exdeejjjaaaa said:

Marty4650 said:

to unseat M4/3 or NEX in the market among serious photo enthusiasts.

Click to expand...

Nikon is not targeting this market segment now... so you could skip the introduction.

Click to expand...

You're right. But they are pricing themselves as if they were.
Which is why deep discounting will be necessary for Nikon 1 to take off.
--
Marty
http://www.fluidr.com/photos/marty4650/sets/72157606210120132
http://www.flickr.com/photos/marty4650/sets/72157606210120132/show/
my blog: http://marty4650.blogspot.com/
Olympus E-30
Olympus E-P1

I've owned many Nikon cameras over the past 30 years and sold off my entire Nikon system, but I still consider myself a Nikonian.

I was a little disappointed to see what Nikon produced and the specs are also disappointing. I am eager to read the future DP review, but don't see anything that would possibly tempt me to move off the Olympus u43 system.

I was hoping for Nikon to really come out with something great. I am really dissapointed in the smaller sensor. Nikon is great and I was looking for something "special".

Marty4650 said:

I will be the first one to admit that the new Nikon 1 system is:

• still too big and heavy
• much too expensive
• the sensor is way too small
• has very anemic lens selection
• has insufficient IQ improvement over high end P&S cameras

to unseat M4/3 or NEX in the market among serious photo enthusiasts.

However, this product will still be a raging success, and a very profitable one for Nikon. Because it's made by Nikon.

And Nikon, while not being an innovator today, is still extremely effective at marketing things. You can expect product placement in every Costco and BestBuy store in America, rapid price discounting, a flurry of new lens offerings, and an advertising blitz that will make Ashton Kutcher even richer.

Simply put..... never bet against Nikon's marketing muscle. These guys know what they are doing, and they are very good at doing it.

Folks like us get obsessive about specs, but the wider market doesn't give a hoot about them. They just want a brand that has a good reputation, and is what everyone else is using, and today that means "Nikon or Canon."

These cameras may not have broad appeal to the most demanding shooters, but neither does any other MILC system today (except perhaps top end models like the NEX7, EP3 or GH2).

These Nikon 1 cameras will appeal to a vast number of people who don't know much about photography, but know they heard somewhere that "Nikon makes very good cameras" (which... they actually do.)

And as an added bonus, the Nikon 1 line might help sell a lot of D3100 and D5100 cameras by making them look like a real bargain....

Click to expand...

I could imagine similar things being said at another time about, for example, IBM and their personal computer business. Where is that business now?

People's perceptions of "a brand with a good reputation" do change, and my impression is that they often change must faster today than they did in the past.

Just the opposite. The problem isn't under-estimation , but rather that WE ( photo enthusiast ) completely over-estimated a NIKON Mirrorless , that we cannot help but feeling both betray and disappointed.

If anything, Nikon J1/V1 serves as a good lesson for assuming:

• when Nikon get into Mirrorless, they're do it right
• If Nikon makes a Mirrorless, Panasonic and Olympus will have to run for cover
• if Nikon makes a Mirrorless, it will be SUCCESSFUL, because its a nikon

Now I realized Nikon is equally good at producing an epic FAILURE as a Pentax Q

Even back in the film days, I do not recall a single Nikon failure as spectacular as this one. I think its worst than Nikon Pronea S creation.

Honestly, the hatred is justified. Just look at how many negatives commentaries that is still currently accumulating on the DPR post here:

http://www.dpreview.com/news/1109/11092120nikonlaunch.asp

561 comments as of now, and is growing even more negatives as we speak.

Unless Nikon decides to replace their entry level dSLR systems with a mirrorless system, I don't see how their mirrorless sensors will increase in size. They don't want to compete with themselves.

I think Nikon can't wait for Canon to join the fray with a similar offering to their "1 system" in hopes that the two of them combined can take enough sales away from Oly, Pana, Sony and Samsung to kill off the competition to their entry level dSLRs.

I hope I'm wrong, or if I'm right, I hope they don't succeed. It would be a true shame if the big boys killed u4/3 with an inferior product.
--

• Murf

The sensor doesn't concern me so much. I expect exceptional IQ relative to the photosite size. As for DoF..... Four Thirds is the sweet spot for me. I can get pretty much unlimited DoF hand held, which is what I want most of the time but I can also get narrow enough DoF when I need it. With the Nikon, I'm not so sure (and that's my main reservation).

I regard Pentax Q as a joke. I regard Nikon 1 as anything but!

--
Regards
J

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Gear in profile

007peter said:

Honestly, the hatred is justified. Just look at how many negatives commentaries that is still currently accumulating on the DPR post here:

http://www.dpreview.com/news/1109/11092120nikonlaunch.asp

561 comments as of now, and is growing even more negatives as we speak.

Click to expand...

Forum writers are not the market. Maybe Nikon will be laughing all the way to the
bank. We'll see in a year or so.

Only camera geeks want IL
This is not appealing to camera geeks.
This camera price is Nikon arrogance.

Ashton Kutcher don't mean squat with cameras that are being sold twice the price they should be.
Hey Nikon, better start bribing the reviewers.

Do us all a favor and cut the price in half so we can stop laughing or wondering how stupid you think we are.

Your lenses SUCK because they are too slow. If your 10mm was 1.8 or faster I could have taken you seriously.

However, most of the people on these forums know something about cameras while most of the people that these cameras are being marketed to don't. They just want a cute little camera that takes good photos and has a big brand name on it that they recognize.

It will have to be a MASSIVE failure to really be any kind of failure for Nikon. The buying public will not read 'credible' reviews and all the other so-called reviews out there will tell them how cute and fun the camera is to use and how it takes better snap shots than their current p&s.

Its hard to tell before we actually see some samples from these cameras but I wouldn't be surprised if some of the current high-end enthusiast cameras (XZ-1, LX5, G12) end up performing better....at a much smaller size.
--
Sam

'Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it... albeit probably in colour the second time around.'

I agree Marty. I will not be surprised if this camera system is a success even though I think it looks pretty awful (and I say that as someone who owns two Nikon DSLR cameras and eight lenses).

But I'm not in their target market. Fortunately Olympus and Panasonic offer what I want in a portable system and I have been very happy with my m4/3 gear. M4/3 is now my primary system, and my Nikon DSLR gear is sort of specialty gear for me these days.

The question is: Which market is worth pursuing? Experienced photographers who want and are willing to pay for cameras with excellent manual control, some degree of depth of field control, and a variety of excellent lenses? Or more entry level photographers who just want a small but stylish camera, a couple of consumer zooms, and instead of manual controls would rather have spray and pray features like 10fps and software that automatically selects the best shots out of those 10fps? The former group is probably smaller, but will probably spend more over time. The latter novice group is more likely to buy a single or twin lens kit an stop there, but they probably outnumber the more experienced group by orders of magnitude.

Nikon of all manufacturers knows that if you hook a passionate photographer when they are young, they will often remain loyal for decades and purchase many thousands of dollars in Nikon cameras and lenses over their lifetime. But Nikon has already been successful at luring compact P&S users to entry level Nikon DSLR cameras. The Nikon Coolpix line has never been that thrilling, but it has been good enough to sell by riding on the solid reputation of Nikon's DSLR line... and I agree that this new system probably will follow suit. I guess Nikon figured they needed a mirrorless ILC as well since those are now the hot enthusiast cameras to buy. While Panasonic and Olympus seemed to simultaneously go after entry level photographers as well as experienced photographers looking to supplement their DSLR gear, Nikon appears to be ignoring the latter and focusing just on the novice market. At least for now. I won't be surprised if Nikon has more interesting lenses in the pipeline. Then again everything about the Nikon 1 system seems to be targeted to novice photographers, so their attitude may be "Buy a Nikon DSLR if you want a serious camera."

Sean

I used the IR sample at 3200 at TS converted by Panos at the Nikon Talk forum and one I shot myself with D7k, converted with ACR all NR off. Colors still off since converter used is not profiled for J1, but result is not so bad:

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1007&message=39405801
--
Renato.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rhlpedrosa/
OnExposure member
http://www.onexposure.net/

Good shooting and good luck
(after Ed Murrow)

Nikon can be pretty bad actually, they have a record.

I've been paying attention to their P&S camera line for 12 years now, and they have made stupid mistakes. So I'd say, don't overestimate them!

I don't see any problem with the CX sensor size or the initial lens lineup. But the V1 feature set and price point seems like a failure .

I mean, no hot shoe, no internal flash, no PASM modes, not articulated screen, and in top asking $900. C'mon I don't see it.

Remains to be seen if the hybrid AF system can justify the price.
I still can't get over the fact of why the PASM Dial is missing in the V1.

This is a start for them, they needed to get into the market segment and have now done so. Eventually they will have more and better camera options.

Panny and Oly will shift back toward improving the serious body offering instead of losing valuable features.

--
BJ Nicholls
SLC, UT

Photato said:

Nikon can be pretty bad actually, they have a record.

I've been paying attention to their P&S camera line for 12 years now, and they have made stupid mistakes. So I'd say, don't overestimate them!

Click to expand...

Yep they have made more than a few poor P&S cameras in recent years

Photato said:

I mean, no hot shoe, no internal flash, no PASM modes, not articulated screen, and in top asking $900. C'mon I don't see it.

Click to expand...

Well in the plus column, it has a built in EVF; there is a specific adapter for adding external flash , I like an articulating screen too, the price compared to the likes of the EP-3 { with added VF2} are in the same area { though I consider both options too pricey }. And if the AF adapter for Nikon lenses works better than the Olympus one it will have instant access to a huge selection of mostly huge lenses

Photato said:

Remains to be seen if the hybrid AF system can justify the price.
I still can't get over the fact of why the PASM Dial is missing in the V1.

Click to expand...

Anything that provides competition in the mirrorless area is good for us .
Jim