D4: Just a vicious rumor?

star shooter

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I'm hearing of a D4 coming out by end of this year. I think its BS but then.....?????

What have you heard?
 
I was told here in Oz, both Nikon and Canon are going to drop their prices on their flagships - D3s and 1D IV. Canon has it that they are going to stop production of the 1D series... hhhmmm.... maybe there is something in the air...rumors, rumors...
 
I read recently that Nikon engineers do not have any say in when cameras are released. It is the marketing/sales division that determines release dates. So the D4 may exist right not, but that does not mean it will be released soon.
 
OP stated "vicious rumor" not "vicious camera". This is fairly common in American English. It might connotate deliberate misinformation.
 
“Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see.” Benjamin Franklin

Only Nikon knows their schedule and no one outside of Nikon is saying if the earthquake has pushed that schedule back for professional cameras like the D4.

--
Good cyclists are:
Visible, Predictable, Alert, Assertive and Courteous

They also use the five layers of protection available.
Layer 1: Control your bike
Layer 2: Know and follow the rules of the road
Layer 3: Ride in the smartest lane position
Layer 4: Manage hazards skillfully
Layer 5: Utilize passive protection.

Chris, Broussard, LA
 
Spot on.

Two points:

Nikon engineers don't set release dates but they certainly limit them. If their work isn't ready for release .....

I cannot credit the idea that product lines for 2016 or 2015 or 2014 or 2013 are set. Two things (at least) come to mind:

1. Nikon do not know what technology sets will be settled and practical in those years.

2. Nikon do not know what their competitors will be doing in those years. Or even who their competitors will be.

We cannot design a product around the unknown. The best we can do is decide which markets we need to focus on, create a general roadmap of the technological directions to watch and develop, and allow the product lines to evolve at the intersection of technology and market demands.

The only exception to this is the known fact that the car manufacturers have the technology for 200 mpg autos but are keeping it secret owing to their invisible connections with the oil industry. My mother-in-law's hairdresser told my MIL all about it just before the shop burned to the ground under conditions impossible to replicate with known science.
“Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see.” Benjamin Franklin

Only Nikon knows their schedule and no one outside of Nikon is saying if the earthquake has pushed that schedule back for professional cameras like the D4.

--
Good cyclists are:
Visible, Predictable, Alert, Assertive and Courteous

They also use the five layers of protection available.
Layer 1: Control your bike
Layer 2: Know and follow the rules of the road
Layer 3: Ride in the smartest lane position
Layer 4: Manage hazards skillfully
Layer 5: Utilize passive protection.

Chris, Broussard, LA
 
It is not a rumor. There will be a D4. Its just that no one knows exactly when it will be announced or released. After reading everything on NR & Thom Hogan's blog I am inclined to believe the D4 will be announced sometime this fall and will be available after January 1st, probably to NPS folks first. I'm betting on a $5699 price tag due mostly to the strong Yen against a weak U.S. dollar.

I cannot imagine Nikon missing out on the 2012 Summer Olympics without the D4 in the hands of pros. Just my 2¢ worth. My hair dresser's cousin that knows the gardener of the local Nikon rep is not talking;-)

Rick
http://www.ricklewisphotography.com/
http://www.ricklewisheadshots.com/
http://www.RickLewisPhotography.com/blog
 
It is not a rumor. There will be a D4. Its just that no one knows exactly when it will be announced or released. After reading everything on NR & Thom Hogan's blog I am inclined to believe the D4 will be announced sometime this fall and will be available after January 1st, probably to NPS folks first. I'm betting on a $5699 price tag due mostly to the strong Yen against a weak U.S. dollar.

I cannot imagine Nikon missing out on the 2012 Summer Olympics without the D4 in the hands of pros. Just my 2¢ worth. My hair dresser's cousin that knows the gardener of the local Nikon rep is not talking;-)

Rick
http://www.ricklewisphotography.com/
http://www.ricklewisheadshots.com/
http://www.RickLewisPhotography.com/blog
I wouldnt bet anything anymore.....I think Nikon doesnt even know when they will

place the camera...(soon is soon) i guess when its finished they will put it up about 4 weeks later
heard something now latest information that there wont be anything from the FF
department by end of the year... well I think the problems in Japan were

very serious... expecting it at the beginning of next year though... Canon will be finished by that time too .. Canon is supposed to come at the end of this year...
for the Olympics we will have them...
 
I don't understand how they can bring out a D4 for a thousand dollars more than a D3s and what about the $8000.00 D3x? They will have to drop the prices big time on the D3x. Will they not? My point is. They usually drop prices a lot as the camera does it's run. Then a replacement such as a D4 isn't such a big deal. I think they will give the pro's at the 2012 Olympics the new D4 then release them to us. It's too soon to bring out the D4.
 
I don't understand how they can bring out a D4 for a thousand dollars more than a D3s and what about the $8000.00 D3x?
Different use, different pixel count. The D4 would NOT be a replacement for the D3S as far as we can tell.
They will have to drop the prices big time on the D3x. Will they not? My point is. They usually drop prices a lot as the camera does it's run.
What is a lot? The only camera Nikon ever officially dropped the prices on was the D2H. Otherwise, the other models were cleared out by dropping only a few percent. That drop in prices was done by the stores, not Nikon.
Then a replacement such as a D4 isn't such a big deal. I think they will give the pro's at the 2012 Olympics the new D4 then release them to us. It's too soon to bring out the D4.
The D3 has run it's course and was scheduled to be replace this year. if Nikon keeps on a regular schedule. The earthquake/tsunami MAY have delayed it.

One other reason for the delay might be that Canon has yet produce a reason to drop the D3S. The 1DMKIV really is not the equal to the D3S on every way it can be measured except one. Frame rate. Nikon may be waiting to release, because they don't have a reason to. Not that I agree with that tactic.

--
Good cyclists are:
Visible, Predictable, Alert, Assertive and Courteous

They also use the five layers of protection available.
Layer 1: Control your bike
Layer 2: Know and follow the rules of the road
Layer 3: Ride in the smartest lane position
Layer 4: Manage hazards skillfully
Layer 5: Utilize passive protection.

Chris, Broussard, LA
 
If history repeats, there will never be a D4! The #4 in Japan is the same as the #13 in the U.S.. Any follow-on to the D3 will be released as a D5.

I experienced this with Fuji in their Hay-Day. I owned a D3 and then a D5 and regret selling the D5. They were built on a Nikon F100 body.

JoeB
 
I don't understand how they can bring out a D4 for a thousand dollars more than a D3s and what about the $8000.00 D3x?
Different use, different pixel count. The D4 would NOT be a replacement for the D3S as far as we can tell.
They will have to drop the prices big time on the D3x. Will they not? My point is. They usually drop prices a lot as the camera does it's run.
What is a lot? The only camera Nikon ever officially dropped the prices on was the D2H. Otherwise, the other models were cleared out by dropping only a few percent. That drop in prices was done by the stores, not Nikon.
Then a replacement such as a D4 isn't such a big deal. I think they will give the pro's at the 2012 Olympics the new D4 then release them to us. It's too soon to bring out the D4.
The D3 has run it's course and was scheduled to be replace this year. if Nikon keeps on a regular schedule. The earthquake/tsunami MAY have delayed it.

One other reason for the delay might be that Canon has yet produce a reason to drop the D3S. The 1DMKIV really is not the equal to the D3S on every way it can be measured except one. Frame rate. Nikon may be waiting to release, because they don't have a reason to. Not that I agree with that tactic.

--
Good cyclists are:
Visible, Predictable, Alert, Assertive and Courteous

They also use the five layers of protection available.
Layer 1: Control your bike
Layer 2: Know and follow the rules of the road
Layer 3: Ride in the smartest lane position
Layer 4: Manage hazards skillfully
Layer 5: Utilize passive protection.

Chris, Broussard, LA
At this point I don't think we can really tell if the D4 (or whatever) will actually replace any camera. No one knows the new specs. I personally believe it will be an 18mp sensor with an ultra fast frame rate with 16bit processing and a 3x exspeed processor. ISO will still be base 200 and go to ??. I doubt it will be as high & as good as the D3s, but who really knows. In addition it may have full 1080p video with all great specs. But again, who knows?

I needed a second camera; not just a back up, so I bought a new D3s off Amazon.com yesterday. They are still available for $5199. Neither B&H nor Adorama had them but they are out there and available.

I may or may not trade in my four year old D3 when the next new model comes out. The D3 is one of the finest cameras on the market, still. It should serve me well for several more years. It is going in to Nikon for a full tune up though:-)

Chris, I agree with you. Canon does not have anything directly competing with the D3s. People just don't understand Nikon. Nikon marches to the beat of a different drummer. We need to get used to that;-)

You can bet the new camera will be available, at least to NPS members, for the summer olympics. Just my 2¢.

Rick
http://www.ricklewisphotography.com/
http://www.ricklewisheadshots.com/
http://www.RickLewisPhotography.com/blog
 
I suspect it will be at minimum 22-24MP as the cell cameras like the Nokia N8 are now 12MB now and probably in the coming months 18MP will be a norm for the phones and tablets. The cells will need a better card though as those thumbnail-sized SD Micros are too darn small for me. Maybe 2 SD card slots?

Those videos of the hang-glider guy with the N8's hung around the frame are quite stunning videos for a cell phone. Then we have that outfit that makes the Apple phones into some sort of mirrorless thing using their iPhone-to-lens mount and the Nikon and Canon DSLR lenses.

I think you're right about the 16 bit coming though, and maybe video if they can pull it through the sensor fast enough. On the cards, I don't think they'll stay with the CF size if they put in a dual card unit like the D7000 has and need the space inside for something like wireless RF flash which would be very nice (hint. hint.).

Sure wish they would announce something soon though as to what's coming, although it would certainly kill off any stock still out there in the smaller shops.

Mack
 
I suspect it will be at minimum 22-24MP as the cell cameras like the Nokia N8 are now 12MB now and probably in the coming months 18MP will be a norm for the phones and tablets. The cells will need a better card though as those thumbnail-sized SD Micros are too darn small for me. Maybe 2 SD card slots?
I can't see Nikon putting a 24mp sensor in the D4 (or whatever), and immediately make the D3x obsolete. Remember they get $8K for one of those. Why give it at $5.5K?
Those videos of the hang-glider guy with the N8's hung around the frame are quite stunning videos for a cell phone. Then we have that outfit that makes the Apple phones into some sort of mirrorless thing using their iPhone-to-lens mount and the Nikon and Canon DSLR lenses.

I think you're right about the 16 bit coming though, and maybe video if they can pull it through the sensor fast enough. On the cards, I don't think they'll stay with the CF size if they put in a dual card unit like the D7000 has and need the space inside for something like wireless RF flash which would be very nice (hint. hint.).
They won't change from using the CF cards because the pros won't be happy. Ever try to remove and put in an SD card in very cold weather or with gloves on, quickly?
Sure wish they would announce something soon though as to what's coming, although it would certainly kill off any stock still out there in the smaller shops.

Mack
--
http://www.ricklewisphotography.com/
http://www.ricklewisheadshots.com/
http://www.RickLewisPhotography.com/blog
 
I suspect it will be at minimum 22-24MP as the cell cameras like the Nokia N8 are now 12MB now and probably in the coming months 18MP will be a norm for the phones and tablets. The cells will need a better card though as those thumbnail-sized SD Micros are too darn small for me. Maybe 2 SD card slots?
I can't see Nikon putting a 24mp sensor in the D4 (or whatever), and immediately make the D3x obsolete. Remember they get $8K for one of those. Why give it at $5.5K?
Those videos of the hang-glider guy with the N8's hung around the frame are quite stunning videos for a cell phone. Then we have that outfit that makes the Apple phones into some sort of mirrorless thing using their iPhone-to-lens mount and the Nikon and Canon DSLR lenses.

I think you're right about the 16 bit coming though, and maybe video if they can pull it through the sensor fast enough. On the cards, I don't think they'll stay with the CF size if they put in a dual card unit like the D7000 has and need the space inside for something like wireless RF flash which would be very nice (hint. hint.).
They won't change from using the CF cards because the pros won't be happy. Ever try to remove and put in an SD card in very cold weather or with gloves on, quickly?
Beg to differ. I wish they would switch over or at least have both options. I can dump the WT-4, download using in-built card reader on the laptop without carrying the card reader, eye-fi for quick reviews on the iPad or use the iPad SD connector kit. Save me a bunch of time and needless hassle for the client to get quick and dirty reviews without being tethered.

YMMV
mosman
Sure wish they would announce something soon though as to what's coming, although it would certainly kill off any stock still out there in the smaller shops.

Mack
--
http://www.ricklewisphotography.com/
http://www.ricklewisheadshots.com/
http://www.RickLewisPhotography.com/blog
 
GMack wrote:

... On the cards, I don't think they'll stay with the CF size if they put in a dual card unit like the D7000 has and need the space inside for something like wireless RF flash which would be very nice (hint. hint.).
RLewis wrote:

They won't change from using the CF cards because the pros won't be happy. Ever try to remove and put in an SD card in very cold weather or with gloves on, quickly?
I don't know about the continued lifespan of CF. You can't find a CF slot on any laptop computer anymore, not even the high-end Sager's that sell for $3,500 to $7,000. It's all SD slots now, or find a corded reader that supports them. My last Toshiba now maybe 7-8 years old had a CF slot and nothing since maybe 3 years ago for CF.

Fewer and fewer places even carry CF and the cost of them is more than the smaller SD card GB-for-GB probably due to the manufacturing volume. They may go the way of VHS tape sooner than not.

I find it easier to change an SD card out even with gloves on two of my cameras. The tiny eraser-sized CF release button is often more problematic to get pressed in than pushing in on the end of the wide end of the SD card to cause it to pop out.

However, I'm more afraid of them going to those fingernail-sized micro SD things like in phones and GPS devices. I hate to change those things and they are appearing in more and more items in this ever growing "shrinking-to-make-it--even-smaller" electronics market like some phones with two slots for the tiny things for photo storage. Even Paul C. Buffs CyberCommander remote flash controller uses the tiny micro SD card. Probably going that way eventually, but man is it ever tiny.

Mack
 

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