The question of what you want and of what you get is a different thing. My assessment is more based on business considerations.
It would be a bad business decision to do away with OVFs. Canon and Nikon would have to agree to do it together, because whichever one does
not will win
a lot of converts!
An OVF is an elegant mechanical solution that enhances enjoyment of the shooting experience, and requires no power.
I heard this argument before. Ah yes, it was in the 80's when AF was introduced. Some people said that AF will never replace manuel focusing and manuel lenses.
AF solves a very specific and widespread problem - how to focus on a moving subject. EVF solves no photographic problem other than, ha ha, improving manual focusing accuracy when using magnified live view. That is a very small use case.
I suppose you can say EVF also solves the problem of how to build a camera with no reflex mirror and still have a through-the-lens viewfinder. But I would still rather have an OVF in that case, a la the Fuji X100 or Leica. Parallax error and all.
Furthermore AF has not replaced MF. There is still a requirement to manually focus in several cases. You're just thinking of the cases where if AF fails, you delete the picture and abandon hope of capturing that shot, which is how most amateurs and point-n-shooters shoot. Enthusiasts and pros still love MF. I like this disclaimer on Phil Askey's M9 preview:
"Before the M8 review I had no experience of rangefinder photography, something I considered relegated to history. During the review process (and thanks to input from those who had used rangefinders before) I gradually began to ‘get’ the advantages, being better ‘connected’ to the subject thanks to the huge bright viewfinder, and being forced to focus manually, always select the aperture, and think more about the shot. Not to mention in the case of the M8, the look from those gorgeous prime lenses (amazingly sharp at the point of focus fading smoothly to silky bokeh). Hence not long after posting my review I bought an M8 for myself (along with a bunch of lenses), and ever since (and unconsciously) all of my personal favorite photographs have come from the M8.
Obviously M series ownership isn’t for everyone, nor is rangefinder photography. But if you’re serious about photography and you get the chance, even if you’d never considered it before, you really should try it."
Indeed, you still can by manuel Zeiss lenses, but that's not the point.
You can still buy Pentax and Leica MF lenses too, and others. If Leica becomes the only provider of MF and OVF, I guess I will have to save up for one!
AF is all over and optical view finder will be a special interest niche as manuel lenses are today.
That's not a good comparison.
Seeing your subject with your own eye and feeling a manual focus ring are two very different things.
That said, I agree that an OVF is a pleasure to use (if you have FF camera at least).
The 100% coverage VF in the 7D is a pleasure to use, albeit not as pleasurable as FF. 7D's VF is a lot bigger than the Rebel's.
I don't think anyone here is saying the EF system needs to go away. A compact premium quality MILC system could exist alongside it.
It was said above and it's a fear some people have. Take a look at Olympus. They started a new system with 43. Now it seems that they concentrate on m43. Would you buy an expensive 43 lens today? I wouldn't because I won't be able to use this lens on new cameras. I bet Olympus will give up 43 in favor of m43.
Olympus has probably conceded the race to Canon and Nikon (and Pentax). They simply can't compete with the AF, IQ, and features. So they are trying to carve a niche for themselves in m4/3.
Now let's assume Canon introduces a mirrorless APS-C system with a new mount ...
If they do they can still compete in the traditional DSLR market, and they have the resources to support both systems.
. Canon has abondon the FD lens mount, of course they could do this again.
True but I don't see that happening any time soon. Witness all the new and very expensive EF lenses that have been introduced lately. My 70-200/2.8 Mark II quickly comes to mind.
1. AF speed of CD AF (will happen soon)
Do you have some data or technical details on this? Again I can't fathom it. My experience shooting sports with a 1DIIN and 7D makes me think contrast detect AF is a long way off. Phase detect is another elegant solution that is based on a mechanical measurement. CD is computational, based on measuring the contrast of a portion of the scene then moving the lens and doing this over and over until the contrast is maximized. At least that's my understanding.
Never bet against Moore's law, I'd say. At the begining of this century many people said that it is long way until digital will replace analog cameras. It turned out that the way was not that long. I make a guess: It will take not longer then two years until we have a CD AF camera that is as fast as your cameras. Actually, it might be that the rumored Panasonic Pro GF or even the Sony NEX 7 is (nearly) at this point. At least, I wouldn't be surprised.
The best solutions to most problems are usually simple and mechanical. Phase detection is that. It is basically an automated rangefinder. It measures the
amount of front or back focus at once, and moves the lens by that amount. Contrast detection is iterative and implemented in software.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autofocus#Phase_detection