Cannon may be getting in on the game

Brent,

I agree with your assessment, it makes good sense. Would be very difficult to create a new system and establish a market for it, and it would be proprietary, like Sony's and Samsung's which, IMO, is their greatest weakness. One of the most attractive things about m43 for me is the open standard and lens/body interchangeability. In addition, what size would the sensor be? One of the main points of mirrorless is reduced size/weight. Seems to me that the 4/3 sensor already occupies the sweet spot for size/weight/IQ between compact and DSLR. It makes little sense to create a proprietary format that would be similar.

So here's another idea for Canon: enter the m43 market themselves. The m43 world is currently populated with an enthusiastic and growing user base that is clamoring for more lenses. What if Canon were to make some really good m43 lenses that fill some of the open niches that people keep asking for?

They would immediately generate revenue, it wouldn't hurt their DSLR/lens sales, and they would get a good feel for the m43 market. If they determine that it's a viable market , they could then produce an m43 body with their own sensor (R&D would be lower because of established standards). Assuming their bodies are good enough they would win over some % of current Pan/Oly users. If they determine that it's not viable, then they just continue to make some lenses and enjoy whatever revenue they earn.

I see this as a Win Win for everyone. They would enter an already established market, users would be delighted to have a 3rd maker join the party, the competition would force Pan and Oly to work harder, etc, etc. And it would certainly energize m43 and probably cause others to join in. M43 would become the new 35mm.

If it is true that compact mirrorless is the wave of the future and DSLRs will eventually fade away, then Canon needs to get on board before it's too late. They could eventually fade out the entry level DSLRs as the market shifted and keep the pro line DSLRs, which would become the defacto medium format (which for FF is already happening).

What do you think?

Regards,
Clayton

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Clayton Jones said:

If it is true that compact mirrorless is the wave of the future and DSLRs will eventually fade away, then Canon needs to get on board before it's too late.

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This is an assertion only made by camera geeks on forums, not the manufacturers. If you look at the marketing presentations of O&P and others, you'll see that CSC's are actually filling a big gap between compacts and dSLRs. CSC's may cannibalize dSLRs sales a little bit, but that's not where the big opportunity is. That's why Canon isn't really very scared right now, and it is why they likely would take advantage of their extensive experience in compacts to simply make a "super compact" (large sensor, high performance) to fill this gap in their product lineup instead of creating a completely new ILC system.

--
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Sam Bennett said:

Clayton Jones said:

If it is true that compact mirrorless is the wave of the future and DSLRs will eventually fade away, then Canon needs to get on board before it's too late.

Click to expand...

This is an assertion only made by camera geeks on forums, not the manufacturers. If you look at the marketing presentations of O&P and others, you'll see that CSC's are actually filling a big gap between compacts and dSLRs.

Click to expand...

One needs to differentiate between marketing speak and reality as well as between now and not so distant future. At this point the only thing that makes a DSLR worthwhile for a non-pro consumer is AF tracking. That won't last long.

Sam Bennett said:

CSC's may cannibalize dSLRs sales a little bit, but that's not where the big opportunity is. That's why Canon isn't really very scared right now, and it is why they likely would take advantage of their extensive experience in compacts to simply make a "super compact" (large sensor, high performance) to fill this gap in their product lineup instead of creating a completely new ILC system.

Click to expand...

Yes, Canon will probably do just that. However, I doubt they are not scared. By the end of the summer m4/3 will be a pretty attractive system with most bases covered. And I am not talking about amateurs only. Recently I attended the wedding, and photographers both from our and parallel party were very much interested in my E-PL1 (and FD 50mm f1.4 too). Size/weight of the gear adds up, and they were very curious if a smaller setup would work for them. Now, with arrival of 45mm f1.8, 12mm f2, and ever improving sensors and AF, I believe they already could do very well with m4/3.

If Canon does not have a mirrorless system in two years, I believe they could lose most of their entry and middle tier DSLR sales. The more they wait, the less mirrorless share they will ultimately get as other system will build lens and customers base.

fermy said:

Sam Bennett said:

Clayton Jones said:

If it is true that compact mirrorless is the wave of the future and DSLRs will eventually fade away, then Canon needs to get on board before it's too late.

Click to expand...

This is an assertion only made by camera geeks on forums, not the manufacturers. If you look at the marketing presentations of O&P and others, you'll see that CSC's are actually filling a big gap between compacts and dSLRs.

Click to expand...

One needs to differentiate between marketing speak and reality as well as between now and not so distant future. At this point the only thing that makes a DSLR worthwhile for a non-pro consumer is AF tracking. That won't last long.

Click to expand...

Not sure what you mean. It's not "marketing speak" - it is the data the manufacturers are using to decide what products they develop and market. The assertion that CSCs are designed replace dSLRs is simply wrong.

In any case, if people think that the solution to their problems is a dSLR, they have little motivation to not buy a dSLR. The main thing CSC's have going for them is size. If people don't care about size and already think they need a dSLR, there's little to stop them.

fermy said:

fermy said:

CSC's may cannibalize dSLRs sales a little bit, but that's not where the big opportunity is. That's why Canon isn't really very scared right now, and it is why they likely would take advantage of their extensive experience in compacts to simply make a "super compact" (large sensor, high performance) to fill this gap in their product lineup instead of creating a completely new ILC system.

Click to expand...

Yes, Canon will probably do just that. However, I doubt they are not scared.

Click to expand...

Why would they be scared? They absolutely own the P&S market (which is admittedly shrinking) and they're a leader in the dSLR market. They are poised to very easily offer a successful product in the same market CSC's are currently serving. What's there to be afraid of?

fermy said:

By the end of the summer m4/3 will be a pretty attractive system with most bases covered. And I am not talking about amateurs only. Recently I attended the wedding, and photographers both from our and parallel party were very much interested in my E-PL1 (and FD 50mm f1.4 too). Size/weight of the gear adds up, and they were very curious if a smaller setup would work for them. Now, with arrival of 45mm f1.8, 12mm f2, and ever improving sensors and AF, I believe they already could do very well with m4/3.

Click to expand...

Yes, I've had the same attention leveled at me when attending events (usually by the more inexperienced type of "wedding photographer"). But as someone who's also shot a lot of these sorts of events professionally, I have to say the weight savings really wouldn't be enough to have me switch. Event photography is all about adapting to the moment, and having the right gear choices available to you to get the shot no matter what. No CSC system is even remotely there yet. I can certainly see using it as a second or third body with a distinctly different focal length as my main camera, but there's no way it could be my main - right off the bat, the battery life of any CSC is pathetic in comparison to a pro dSLR and that's a show stopper. Then you get into the flash system, poor high ISO performance, blah blah blah. I love my MFT gear, but be realistic.

--
Sam Bennett
http://www.swiftbennett.com
http://www.flickr.com/sambennett/

It's safe to say that Canon isn't going to sit idly by, while other companies increase market share, through mirrorless offerings.

Canibalization isn't an issue. If a company doesn't canabalize their own products, the competition will.

BTW, Canon manufactures their own CMOS, both for their DSLRs, and for their compact cameras. That gives them a lot of design freedom.

In the short term, Canon and Nikon entry-level DSLRs are selling well, so there is no need for them to panic. In the longer term, they will most likely crush the mirrorless competition.

Sam Bennett said:

Why would they be scared? They absolutely own the P&S market (which is admittedly shrinking) and they're a leader in the dSLR market. They are poised to very easily offer a successful product in the same market CSC's are currently serving. What's there to be afraid of?

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As you said, P&S market is shrinking and DSLR market is going to shrink very soon. Obviously they are running the risk of losing the industry lead the way it happened to Leica, when RF lost to SLR, and (to a lesser extent) to Nikon, when AF beat MF.

Sam Bennett said:

Sam Bennett said:

By the end of the summer m4/3 will be a pretty attractive system with most bases covered. And I am not talking about amateurs only. Recently I attended the wedding, and photographers both from our and parallel party were very much interested in my E-PL1 (and FD 50mm f1.4 too). Size/weight of the gear adds up, and they were very curious if a smaller setup would work for them. Now, with arrival of 45mm f1.8, 12mm f2, and ever improving sensors and AF, I believe they already could do very well with m4/3.

Click to expand...

Yes, I've had the same attention leveled at me when attending events (usually by the more inexperienced type of "wedding photographer"). But as someone who's also shot a lot of these sorts of events professionally, I have to say the weight savings really wouldn't be enough to have me switch. Event photography is all about adapting to the moment, and having the right gear choices available to you to get the shot no matter what. No CSC system is even remotely there yet. I can certainly see using it as a second or third body with a distinctly different focal length as my main camera, but there's no way it could be my main - right off the bat, the battery life of any CSC is pathetic in comparison to a pro dSLR and that's a show stopper. Then you get into the flash system, poor high ISO performance, blah blah blah. I love my MFT gear, but be realistic.

Click to expand...

I am realistic. Wedding is a highly scripted event, it's more about game plan than spur of the moment decisions. With fast lenses, even current high ISO performance is good enough, and it is improving. Spare battery or two is a must in any case, m43 or pro FF. Switching requires some adjustment, but as more fast, good quality lenses will emerge, I'm sure there will be more photographers deciding that the switch is worthwhile.

Canon and Nikon's biggest strength lies in the broad user base who already have the lenses and accessories.

That's exactly what m43 (NEX to lesser degree) is doing, building the user base, slowly but surely.

Even if Nikon/Canon release mirrorless system now, how long will they take to build up similar lens selection?

--
^ ^

Just Shoot !

You can't create a line of good lenses over night. It takes years.

If Canon hasn't started designing small CDAF lenses yet, they are in HUGE trouble.

That's the rumor I've seen. There are actually advantages/disadvantages to smaller/larger sensors. I might be wrong but I'd be surprised if a relatively compact and elegant mirror less system could be developed using the current Nikon or Canon lens mounts.

--
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Sam Bennett said:

No, they read it first in my posts on nearly every thread like this I've participated in.

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. . . I should start bookmarking your posts Sam.

Sam Bennett said:

Needless to say, I agree. Again, there's a difference between what the market needs and what solution will be offered to them. Every CSC manufacturer except Fuji has made a bet on an ILC solution. I doubt Canon will do the same, and I can't really question the wisdom of that decision.

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. . . They didn't get where they are by being completely stupid. So you're right, it is going to happen.

Sounds pretty ambitious. They will have to do it in the MILC market (likely APSC sensor) since they have no chance in APSC market.

"(Reuters) - Japan's Fujifilm aims to become the world's fourth largest camera maker by next March and the No. 3 manufacturer two years later, overtaking first rival Samsung and then Nikon, a senior company executive said."

"The launch of a mirrorless camera, which has an electronic viewfinder, making it lighter and more compact than a professional-style single-lens reflex camera, would be an extension of Fujifilm's effort to move upmarket and would put it in direct competition with Sony.

Earlier this year it launched the Finepix X100 high-end compact, which is made in Japan and sells for about 120,000 yen ($1,480).

Higuchi insisted the company would have no problems developing a mirrorless camera or the required lenses by itself, denying the possibility of another acquisition in the industry."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/04/us-fujifilm-idUSTRE7631CG20110704

fermy said:

Sam Bennett said:

Why would they be scared? They absolutely own the P&S market (which is admittedly shrinking) and they're a leader in the dSLR market. They are poised to very easily offer a successful product in the same market CSC's are currently serving. What's there to be afraid of?

Click to expand...

As you said, P&S market is shrinking and DSLR market is going to shrink very soon.

Click to expand...

According to whom? Not according to O&P, who certainly must secretly hope that would be true.

fermy said:

Obviously they are running the risk of losing the industry lead the way it happened to Leica, when RF lost to SLR, and (to a lesser extent) to Nikon, when AF beat MF.

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It is a very small risk, if any. All the advances you mention had huge impacts to the user. The change from dSLR to CSC is basically "It's like an SLR, but smaller". Many of the positive changes that are in CSC (truly competent Live View) are things that could also be put in dSLRs.

fermy said:

fermy said:

Yes, I've had the same attention leveled at me when attending events (usually by the more inexperienced type of "wedding photographer"). But as someone who's also shot a lot of these sorts of events professionally, I have to say the weight savings really wouldn't be enough to have me switch. Event photography is all about adapting to the moment, and having the right gear choices available to you to get the shot no matter what. No CSC system is even remotely there yet. I can certainly see using it as a second or third body with a distinctly different focal length as my main camera, but there's no way it could be my main - right off the bat, the battery life of any CSC is pathetic in comparison to a pro dSLR and that's a show stopper. Then you get into the flash system, poor high ISO performance, blah blah blah. I love my MFT gear, but be realistic.

Click to expand...

I am realistic. Wedding is a highly scripted event, it's more about game plan than spur of the moment decisions.

Click to expand...

Not in my experience. Yes, there is the general plan of how things are supposed to go down, but it's very rare for it to be so: An outdoor event in a beautiful location is suddenly in a dismal indoor location due to rain. You get to the venue and learn that you won't be allowed to shoot on the floor of the church, and instead you have to shoot from the rear balcony, about 100 yards away. The "indoor" event actually ends up occurring both inside and outside at the same time, requiring almost totally different flash setups. I could go on. If you go into this sort of event not expecting the unexpected, it is just a matter of time before you fail.

fermy said:

With fast lenses, even current high ISO performance is good enough, and it is improving.

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Where are the fast lenses? The primes? I love primes, but not for event work. My primary lens when I'm shooting events is always an f/2.8 zoom of some sort, which usually changes over the course of the event. You're out of luck on that front with MFT. Having a prime on my second camera? Sure. As my main lens? No thanks.

fermy said:

Spare battery or two is a must in any case, m43 or pro FF.

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Do you have any idea how many shots a pro photog may go through over the course of a wedding? You're talking 4,000+, easily. With a camera that only lasts about 400 shots per battery, that's a disaster waiting to happen - you're not talking about a "battery or two", you're talking about 15-20 batteries that all need to be maintained, kept track of, etc. It would be idiotic to make that gear choice as an event photographer.

fermy said:

Switching requires some adjustment, but as more fast, good quality lenses will emerge, I'm sure there will be more photographers deciding that the switch is worthwhile.

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I seriously doubt it. I wouldn't do it, and I love my MFT gear. It simply isn't the best tool for the job.

--
Sam Bennett
http://www.swiftbennett.com
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(canon DSLR user here BTW)
Great thread - I was very interested in all the comments

Canon have already designed a mirrorless mount but are sitting on it ...

http://www.canonrumors.com/2011/03/first-canon-mirrorless-related-patent/

Like 43 to m43 canon have the advantage of an all electronic mount so they can adapt old lenses across and the patent shows the adaptor they would use. cd-af would be an issue with the lenses though as previous posters have suggested.

I think what Canon are lacking is the bottle to actually release mirrorless - I suspect Canon are very internally conflicted at this point - as you say they dont want to canibalise their existing sales base. I notice Canon have stopped releasing APC-C lenses though ("EF-S" in canon speak - they used to release at least one a year) so my theory is they are spending the development cash designing mirrorless lenses in readiness for the inevitable.

I have been trying by brother-in-laws GF-1 with 20mm f/1.7 and have just tried the Panasonic G3 at Jessops - both very impressive - nice range of primes coming along as well and with multiple vendors its a unique system nowadays. I'm one of those canon users that's sorely tempted to try out m43 if canon delay any longer - even if its something second hand just to play with...

I think Nikon and Canon are watching one another waiting for one or other to make the first move. they can then release something better. Mexican stand off ...

http://www.43rumors.com/ft3-more-rumors-about-fuji-joining-m43/

As HappyVan points out, Fuji may be joining micro4/3rds. It makes sense because of the smaller, lighter lenses and over all package. No mirrorless system will have 1/3rd the lenses of m43 even after a couple years. This would allow them to focus on camera bodies and not waste most of their money and development on lenses.

If Fuji joins, it is game over for companies like Nikon. They do not have the resources to support 3 formats and develop a whole new line of lenses on their own.

certainly with Fuji on board and actually producing cameras and lenses m43 would become the "de-facto" mirrorless standard surely ? As you say they get an instant lens range. Also people have the comfort factor that if one vendor does eventually drop out the other two are going to still be there.

Tim,

Tim in upstate NY said:

. . . I think you've got it wrong. Canon is a dominant market leader in both P&S and DSLR sales and the one thing they don't want to do is to start 'eating the lunch' of their own products.

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It is a well-known good marketing practice to eat your own lunch before others get too big a share. Canon could well introduce a decent mirrorless offering that partly cannibalises their own DSLR + P&S sales, but that stops Olympus/Panasonic/Samsung/Sony from doing it. Partial EOS lens compatibility would definitely help. So I am a firm believer in the rumour that Canon as well as Nikon are in a much more advanced state than just considering EVIL cameras.

Peter.

--
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Hello Shood,

SHood said:

The rumor is that Nikon will be going with an even smaller sensor (2.5 crop). We'll see what Canon does but it could be a smaller sensor as well.

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I don't think Canon will go smaller, because they like hyping size and numbers. But of course I could be wrong.

As for smaller sensor EVILs: don't forget the Q ! A sweet camera for several reasons, one of which being that we µ43 users can now claim to have a large sensor

Peter.

--
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blog at http://lightchangesstuff.wordpress.com/

Not having done a scientific poll I'm going to go totally anecdotal on this. The majority of entry level DSLR users are P&S upgraders who are looking for better image quality. Assuming a buyer educated in all options in today's market, mirrorless systems like m4/3 will be very appealing to such buyers due to smaller size. The more the word gets out about m4/3 being a viable alternative to big bulky DSLRs, the more market share m4/3 will take from entry level DSLRs. I believe if m4/3 continues to improve and do a better job of marketing, it and other mirrorless systems will eventually supplant the entry level DSLR market.

At that point there will still be a market for those needing even greater image quality (from FF sensors, for instance) and speed, and DSLRs will continue to fill that need.

Weddings? No. Way. Weddings from 40 years ago perhaps, but today's wedding photography is all action all the time. Yes there are still posed shots, but a lot of it is candid photography where speed is crucial. The latest Olympus cameras might be usable in some situations, but when the light gets dim I'd still put money on a good DSLR over m4/3 any day. I'd love for m4/3 to eventually get there, but we're a long way from that goal today.

Yohan Pamudji said:

Weddings? No. Way. Weddings from 40 years ago perhaps, but today's wedding photography is all action all the time. Yes there are still posed shots, but a lot of it is candid photography where speed is crucial. The latest Olympus cameras might be usable in some situations, but when the light gets dim I'd still put money on a good DSLR over m4/3 any day.

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Not very convincing to be honest. It seems that DSLR speed advantage is over, AF-C is not really needed for this type of shots. In absolute image quality larger sensor DSLRs might have an edge, but it's trivial for the intended purpose. Don't forget that there are successful wedding photographers that use Oly E-series bodies today. When you weight that edge against the necessity to lug kilos of gear the whole day, you might reconsider.

Yohan Pamudji said:

I'd love for m4/3 to eventually get there, but we're a long way from that goal today.

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Not that long way. Perhaps one body and fast zoom away.

this is one area where maybe mirrorless could be BETTER than dslrs in years to come.

Consider face detect - I dismissed this as a gimmick initially but my daughters camera has really surprised me by how good it can be. Now expand that a bit to "wedding mode" where the camera tracks faces and ensures nicely exposed skin tones. given you have told the camera its a wedding, and given enough processing power, it will probably be able to recognise "that dress" as well and ensure its in focus and that the highlights on it dont blow out - no matter how backlit or whatever it is...

And in "football mode" it will track the ball around the scheme, recognise the players for what they are and ensure the nearest players to the ball are in always in focus.. as long as you keep them somewhere in the frame.

Nikon have a 512 or 1024 element exposure sensor in some of their DSLRs that tries to "recognise" a scene and optimise exposure and focus. Using this it can "guess" that its maybe a landscape shot you are taking. Miirrorless cameras have the same thing only rather than 1024 elements they have 12 or 16 million.

Ok maybe I am looking ahead a bit here - and all the above needs much more image processing power - but I can see a time when pros move to mirrorless for some of these modes - rather than relying on a few fixed focus points at artificial locations around the viewfinder.

This is why ultimately I think mirrorless will prevail but I agree its difficult to predict when ...