The concept of a small high quality camera is very compelling. I know I'd love to own one. This question really is about whether such a product would be a commercial success.
Right now M43 is providing entry level DSLR performance, at a slightly higher cost.
Right now M43 has some pretty good lenses, at a much higher cost than their 4/3 versions. And those more expensive lenses very often aren't as high quality as the 4/3 versions.
Right now, we are paying a very high price premium for smaller and lighter cameras that are more portable and convenient. And we aren't getting much more than convenience for the extra money.
There are rumors/demands/desires for an upscale weathersealed pro camera. And Olympus has said that this will eventually come.
So, what will happen when Olympus or Panasonic "beefs up" a M43 camera to a pro grade spec?
We can assume that a pro grade cameras will have:
Will they sell very many of them if it costs more than a Canon 7D, but delivers less?
The assumption behind this design is that "everyone wants a pro grade mini camera." And there is no doubt that this is true for some people.
But I suspect that the number of actual buyers (as opposed to window shoppers) will be so small that this will become a high end niche product for the Leica X1/Fuji X100 market.
The bottom line is that the price will be very high, and the quality just be "very good," and not anything comparable with high end cameras that cost less. The size and weight advantage will shrink due to the magnesium body, weather sealing, and added features. The price premium for "smaller" will grow.
We might end up with something that lacks the image quality of a Nikon D5100, but sells for three or four times it's price. And is almost as big and heavy. And lacks the lens selection.
It all comes back to that assumption.
What if only a small percentage of M43 users are willing to pay a very high premium for a pro grade camera, and the rest just wanted a nice P&S upgrade, or a good DSLR companion camera? Where is the market for this camera?
Considering the pricing of M43 we know this new system won't be cheap. A Panasonic GH2 with a kit lens costs $1300 today. A pro version with a pro lens would cost a lot more. Perhaps twice as much.
Could this camera compete with a cheaper Pentax K5 that will have the same pro build, more features, better image quality, and be only slightly larger and heavier? (I guess that would depend on how large and how heavy a pro grade M43 camera needs to be).
When you read this forum, you get the sense that the most important feature people want is "smaller and lighter cameras." And that they are willing to compromise on image quality and features to get this. And this is probably true for many people.
But is it true for professional photographers too? The people who will spend a lot for their gear because they need the best. These are the same people who don't mind carrying around a 2 pound Nikon D3s, or a 3 pound Leica S2, or a 6 pound view camera if that is the tool they need. Are these people willing to compromise on image quality for portability?
Simply put, when a M43 camera costs more than an Olympus E5, then it is a poor choice for a high end user. You end up paying more and getting less. And you don't even have lenses to go with your camera, and the camera may not even be sufficiently smaller or lighter.
My own view, and I am certain that many will disagree, is that "pro grade M43" is a mistake. If anything, M43 should move in the other direction, to capture more of the mass market. The next generation should get smaller, lighter and cheaper.... and not bigger, heavier and more expensive.
The killer product would be a smaller and lighter EPL3 with a $350 list price. With a few small standard grade prime lenses. Everyone would want that camera in their bag. You couldn't make them fast enough. A camera like that would make it hard for Canon to sell many G12s.
OK, that's just my view. Feel free to call me a troll now. It won't hurt my feelings.
I just feel M43 needs to move directly and aggressively into the mass market, and not become a high end niche product. Designed for people who say they want it, but will never spend that much money for it.
--
Marty
http://www.fluidr.com/photos/marty4650/sets/72157606210120132
http://www.flickr.com/photos/marty4650/sets/72157606210120132/show/
my blog: http://marty4650.blogspot.com/
Olympus E-30
Olympus E-P1
Right now M43 is providing entry level DSLR performance, at a slightly higher cost.
Right now M43 has some pretty good lenses, at a much higher cost than their 4/3 versions. And those more expensive lenses very often aren't as high quality as the 4/3 versions.
Right now, we are paying a very high price premium for smaller and lighter cameras that are more portable and convenient. And we aren't getting much more than convenience for the extra money.
There are rumors/demands/desires for an upscale weathersealed pro camera. And Olympus has said that this will eventually come.
So, what will happen when Olympus or Panasonic "beefs up" a M43 camera to a pro grade spec?
We can assume that a pro grade cameras will have:
- better image quality, perhaps a new sensor with more resolution
- a magnesium alloy weather sealed body
- a built in high quality EVF
- faster continuous shooting rate
- more high end features
- a much better built in flash
- high grade fast prime and zoom lenses, also weather sealed
Will they sell very many of them if it costs more than a Canon 7D, but delivers less?
The assumption behind this design is that "everyone wants a pro grade mini camera." And there is no doubt that this is true for some people.
But I suspect that the number of actual buyers (as opposed to window shoppers) will be so small that this will become a high end niche product for the Leica X1/Fuji X100 market.
The bottom line is that the price will be very high, and the quality just be "very good," and not anything comparable with high end cameras that cost less. The size and weight advantage will shrink due to the magnesium body, weather sealing, and added features. The price premium for "smaller" will grow.
We might end up with something that lacks the image quality of a Nikon D5100, but sells for three or four times it's price. And is almost as big and heavy. And lacks the lens selection.
It all comes back to that assumption.
What if only a small percentage of M43 users are willing to pay a very high premium for a pro grade camera, and the rest just wanted a nice P&S upgrade, or a good DSLR companion camera? Where is the market for this camera?
Considering the pricing of M43 we know this new system won't be cheap. A Panasonic GH2 with a kit lens costs $1300 today. A pro version with a pro lens would cost a lot more. Perhaps twice as much.
Could this camera compete with a cheaper Pentax K5 that will have the same pro build, more features, better image quality, and be only slightly larger and heavier? (I guess that would depend on how large and how heavy a pro grade M43 camera needs to be).
When you read this forum, you get the sense that the most important feature people want is "smaller and lighter cameras." And that they are willing to compromise on image quality and features to get this. And this is probably true for many people.
But is it true for professional photographers too? The people who will spend a lot for their gear because they need the best. These are the same people who don't mind carrying around a 2 pound Nikon D3s, or a 3 pound Leica S2, or a 6 pound view camera if that is the tool they need. Are these people willing to compromise on image quality for portability?
Simply put, when a M43 camera costs more than an Olympus E5, then it is a poor choice for a high end user. You end up paying more and getting less. And you don't even have lenses to go with your camera, and the camera may not even be sufficiently smaller or lighter.
My own view, and I am certain that many will disagree, is that "pro grade M43" is a mistake. If anything, M43 should move in the other direction, to capture more of the mass market. The next generation should get smaller, lighter and cheaper.... and not bigger, heavier and more expensive.
The killer product would be a smaller and lighter EPL3 with a $350 list price. With a few small standard grade prime lenses. Everyone would want that camera in their bag. You couldn't make them fast enough. A camera like that would make it hard for Canon to sell many G12s.
OK, that's just my view. Feel free to call me a troll now. It won't hurt my feelings.
I just feel M43 needs to move directly and aggressively into the mass market, and not become a high end niche product. Designed for people who say they want it, but will never spend that much money for it.
--
Marty
http://www.fluidr.com/photos/marty4650/sets/72157606210120132
http://www.flickr.com/photos/marty4650/sets/72157606210120132/show/
my blog: http://marty4650.blogspot.com/
Olympus E-30
Olympus E-P1
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