Be careful ...

  • Thread starter Thread starter Karl H. Timmerman M.A.J.D.
  • Start date Start date
I don't think you are quite correct there. Actually, skepticism in the science community toward man made global warming is greater now than it was when Bush was in power. The expose of the fraud of the global warming community has encouraged other scientists to speak out because they are less likely to wreck their careers in doing so.
Scepticism has not grown. Only the money poured into propaganda by such people as the Koch Brothers and Exxon/Moble has grown.

NASA, NOAA, the National Geographic Institute, and a host of others have the same position today as they did under Bush.

Name one recognised Scientific Organisation which ios scpetical about this issue?

I tell you right now that you can't.

Dave
I can't speak for Bill, but I absolutely do blame George Bush for allowing this folley to get out of control. He is the same guy who promoted the idiotic development of ethyl alcohol derived from corn as a viable substitute for fossil fuels. Any junior grade engineer with a calculator and 30 minutes of internet research could expose that sham. Nobody is claiming that fuel source has any relevance anymore. He did it under the false assumption that it would improve his political position.
 
Hey Dave,

McDonalds has introduced a new "Obama Value Meal", you order whatever suits you and guy behind you pays for it. LOL
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' You don't have to have the best of everything to get the best out of what you do have'.
I'm aware of this and have aquired 30,000 coupons for this deal. Of course, I wouldn't eat their stuff myself, it's all for the dog... :(

Dave
 
--I agree that they are all liars but this LIAR is the biggest LIAR in history. Now the ruling today that the "health care mandate" is unconstitutional. When will these morons get the message that they cannot mandate FOR the people but the people must mandate for themselves. I resent any govt. that tells me what is BEST for me.

' You don't have to have the best of everything to get the best out of what you do have'.
Personally I agree that this law is Unconstitutional, but not because the government is mandating that we all have health care; rather because they are mandating that we all buy health care from private companies.

If the government had it's own Single payer plan or Medicare for All, it wouldn't be Unconstitutional, anymore than Social Security is Unconstitutional, or anymore than a town passing a tax to install sewers is Unconstitutional.

Dave
 
How could it be any other way? It's a government institution

http://climateaudit.org/?s=nasa
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Based on experience I have a higher opinion of the integrity of human beings than you do. Given any corrupt institution there are ALWAYS those who choose to take risks when they see the facts being played with. Often enough these risks are a matter of risking one life. In the case of Global Warming the risks are simply the risk of losing ones job.

To believe that every scientific organization in the world consists 100 percent of cowards who would rather see the world go down the tubes, than speak the truth is a religious belief, that I don't buy. To believe that NASA and other government supported institutions , no matter which political party is in control are part of the global warming copnspiracy, is another religious belief that I don't buy.

Dave
 
Take care out there,

May I ask if it is windy as well, or 'just' a heavy snowfall?
How is houses and families handling the temperature?
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Cheers
Erland
 
I see no need to get personal Bill - and for what it's worth, I do know what an organic rankine cycle is - but I wonder why you would assume I don't know anything about them - just because I didn't buy carloads of refrigerant in the 1990s?

For example I know that fluid in an ORC is only a small part of the cost - and hence the whole plant will not have trippled in cost.

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You're completely right. It IS a perfect example of human intervention that corrected a major problem. Moreover Bill reveals his ignorance by making the claim that scientists were worried about "melting the ice cap." What they were worried about was the increase of cosmic rays, no longer being blocked by ozone, and damaging any and all life.

The fact that CFC's were phased out instead of being immediately outlawed is a reflection of not wishing to destroy entire industries. Even so, the drop in both productions and release was dramatic, and as you say, the Ozone layer is healing "itself" now that we no longer use them.

What next? The Clean Air and Water Act did nothing? Government intervention was all a scam?

When I was a kid I couldn't see the stars and every river between New York and Washington was Brown. Ain't true today... :)

Dave

Dave
 
We are only in the beginnings of the storm: and yes, there are also 20 - 40mph wind gusts :( I had hoped folks would post picks from their respective areas, since this storm spans 2,500 miles across my America. I plan on posting pics in 3 hour increments ... the "eye" of the storm is supposed to hit Holden, Missouri early this evening. There will be significant "drifting".
Warm Regards
KarlT
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'The best part of taking the moral highground ...... is the view'.
 
Gee. It's 75 degrees here today. You logic "it's cold here, it must be cold everywhere" is like sitting in the middle of a pond and declaring that there are no droughts...... Anecdotal evidence is not allowed in a court of law.
Except if the anecdote is yours, right?

it's not 70* here

http://www.wunderground.com/US/NY/New_York.html
"One way of measuring cold is degree-days. It's a measure of how much heat you need. The normal through Jan 24 is 2451 and we are at 2573. Not a big difference."

In other words, temperatures are insignifigantly colder than normal. But I would bet that by the end of the heating system, it will be insignifigantly above normal.

Yet, if you ask your neighbor they will tell you that it's a brutally cold Winter. Memories are short, expecially with the cold. But then again, last Summer WAS signifigantly ABOVE normal.

Dave
 
10am, Holden, Missouri
There's all this White "noise" all over the place and I can hardly make out the streets. Indeed it seems to be rapidly getting worse. Maybe you should buy a new camera? :D

(BTW - I seem to have the same unexplained problem)

Dave
Karl H. Timmerman M.A.J.D.
Image site: http://www.karltimmerman.com
BLOG: http://www.karltimmerman.com/Ramblings/
'The best part of taking the moral highground ...... is the view'.
 
Are you aware that there is not ONE recognised Scientific organisation that Doesn't supporty the theory that Global Warming is not only occuring, but is human caused? Not one. You have to go to the crank organizations which also tell us that tabacco is good for you before you can find such a group.

Dave
I'm glad you brought that up---the comparison between climate change and tobacco's causing cancer. Not so many years ago there were the same sort of bogus studies contending that the link between tabacco and lung cancer were unproven. Some people just didn't want to be confused by the facts.

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Last year Globally was the second warmest since record keeping began back in the 1880's.
Are we sure that record keeping began in 1880 globally ? What was the average temperature in Ouadogfou in 1921?
-122 celcius.... :(
Yet North America again had an average Winter - We haven't had to many "average" Winters, and since memories are short, people feel the cold.

Dave
Ok, fine. I'll stick to my statement, even modified by you. There are other ways of determining temperature than with a thermometer.
Yes if determining means estimating rather than measeuring
But being humble I stick to the meter.
And plain and simple, I, personally have been following temperatures religiously since I became a boiler mechanic back in 1968. And THIS Winter in the Northeast, which is regarded as waaaaay below normal, is in fact an average Winter, and average is defined as since 1888. The last below average Winter was that of 1976-77.
Fair enough, but it doesn'nt mean a thing about global average temperture, right? What I'm trying to say is that even coming up with a number of the average temperature is not a straightforward thing even when talking about periods where there are actual records. If you take a look at tht GISS temp files you will see that in many areas records are incomplete, start at different times, etc. Then there-s the afact that the averaging method cannot be arithmetic, etc. That makes assertions like yours too risky and/or they come acrossas religious beliefs.

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The problem with the historic data is that the methods and locations of the source of this data have not changed but the nature of the locations in which the data was collected have. Sites which were once rural are now suburban or even urban in nature. Nobody will deny that cities and suburbs are warmer than the surrounding countryside. According to some scientists, this information has not been taken into account when analysing long term trends based on the same fixed locations.

Most scientists and other reasonable people seem agree the earth has gotten warmer in the last hundred years. The question of how much and why is still unknown.
Source?
My source is personal observation and listening to the scientific community and my fellow man.
No disrespect but personal observation without method doesn't sound too conclusive.
I could, of course, be wrong but I doubt it. The melting of the great ice sheets across the earth isn't in question.
I'm not so sure. I've seen that questioned (at climateaudit.org and other blogs along the sime lines)
For example, the size of the glaciers in Glacier National Park are considerably smaller than they were when I first visited there in about 1977. Something is happening to them and I don't think it is a result of road salt.
Which doesn't necessarily mean that ice is not thickening expanding in other areas.
BTW Why would the opinion of ignorant in climate matters, albeit reasonable, other people have any bearing on this)
In my estimation, the opinions of reasonable but unscientific people are at least as valid as those of famous Climatologist Michael E. Mann. The reason is there is a higher probability of talking to someone objective on the subject. My question is why do the opinions of proven dishonest climatologists still carry any weight on the issue?
Ice core samples from eons ago hint that CO2 levels were higher during periods of warmer climates. The question in my mind is what industry was it that caused these levels back then? There is also evidence that cooling temperatures preceeded the increase in CO2 levels, suggesting that CO2 levels are a result of global warning rather than the cause.
If you have a link on that, I really appreciate your posting it.
I will do my best to find it for you because it is a very interesting rebuttal of the fantasy movie published by Al Gore called "An Inconvenient Truth". As I recall, the report was sponsored by a group of conservative Congressmen. I believe I followed a link to it I found on a website called junkscience.com or something like that. A big part of the rebuttal was other information gleaned from the same studies cited by Gore that he selectively failed to mention.
My bad, I misread you und got it the other way round. I too recall an a Nordic guy that had been studying ice cores for years claiming that temperature increase caused CO2 increas. But for the life of me can't find the video.
Information refuting the theory of man made global warming is easy to come by. Just doing a Google search will provide all sorts of peer reviewed and published papers on the subject. You have to go down 2 or 3 screens from the first links because Google has a political agenda too.
This is some of the information that the man made global wang advocates don't want you to know and try to suppress.
i

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My Galleries: http://webs.ono.com/igonzalezbordes/index.html
 
How could it be any other way? It's a government institution

http://climateaudit.org/?s=nasa
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My Galleries: http://webs.ono.com/igonzalezbordes/index.html
Based on experience I have a higher opinion of the integrity of human beings than you do.
Not to be picky, but i believe that people has the potential og the highest integrity, it's just that not everybody (a few?) lives up to that potential.
Given any corrupt institution there are ALWAYS those who choose to take risks when they see the facts being played with. Often enough these risks are a matter of risking one life. In the case of Global Warming the risks are simply the risk of losing ones job.
Well, your guess is as good as mine I suppose.
To believe that every scientific organization in the world consists 100 percent of cowards who would rather see the world go down the tubes, than speak the truth is a religious belief, that I don't buy.
To use an organisation for any kind of propaganda you don't need to have 100% of its memebers on board, you know that.
To believe that NASA and other government supported institutions , no matter which political party is in control are part of the global warming copnspiracy, is another religious belief that I don't buy.
Why is it religious? I'd call it simply speculation (and it is debatable far-fetched or fair ). On the other hand, we have to believe scientific consensus since it's impossible for us to validate it rationally.

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You don't have to read the "Monday morning quarterback" opinion from USAToday. Y
Give me a break. Try to remember that I read thiose articles at the time they were written. The press was full of such articles, litterally full of them - And there was very little science behind them, and no scientific consensus. Ninety nine percent of this was done by second rate science writers.
It's the same exact situation with AGW theory. I would say there is no science behind AGW at this point as the theory has repeatedly failed to make accurate predictions and is therefore, scientifically speaking, falsified.

There is also no scientific consensus. Anyone who claims otherwise is ignorant of the facts. There are thousands of papers by critics. And the petition with the most signatures of scientists is a petition against AGW theory.
This myth of "Science predicted Global Cooling" is being played for all it's worth - Plain and simple,
So has the myth that AGW has been proven. It has, in fact, failed every key prediction which would distinguish it from natural warming. A theory which cannot predict the future is a falsified one.

Throw in the myth that there is any kind of consensus. There never has been.

And toss in the myth that the majority of scientists agree with AGW theory. There have been no real, statistically valid surveys of working scientists. But when the largest petitions are compared and the one critical of AGW theory has an order of magnitude more signatures, it's not hard to guess where the majority opinion lies.

While we're at it, toss in any claims of "warmest year" based on the surface record, including any claims from James Hansen at NASA about 2010. The margin of error of the surface record is at least 5x greater than the claimed warming for the entire 20th century. It surprises most people to know that the IPCC has, in past reports, stated clearly that though they believed anthropogenic global warming was occurring, given the margin of error they could not rule out the opposite, that the globe might in fact have cooled over the 20th century!

I look to the satellite record which, unfortunately, is only around 30 years old. But at least the margin of error is known and is small enough that trends can be seen and trusted. The surface record is an absolute joke. So is the manner in which certain people at NASA and Hadley CRU massage the data to get whatever they want. Both have been caught red handed playing statistical games to get warming trends out of the data, data which they often refuse to provide under freedom of information requests. (And IMHO any government employee who refuses a lawful FOI request deserves jail time. Especially a scientist who is supposed to provide all data and analysis for proper peer review.)
Science did NOT predict Global cooling, only a handful of "scientists" did, and they were a tiny minority.
Science has also NOT predicted AGW. Indeed, a straight estimate of the basic physics, absent the unproven feedback effects which the AGW climate models depend on, suggest that human CO2 contribution is far too weak to be a concern against natural variation. This is consistent with ice core studies that show that much higher CO2 concentrations in the past were unable to prevent the Earth from cooling in response to other, natural variations and changes.

CO2 is simply not a significant variable in the climate. All AGW climate models assume that increased CO2 will create a feedback loop with water vapor. It's the only way you can get > 1C of warming because by itself CO2 can't do it. The problem is that these feedback loops have never been proven, and indeed appear to be absent from all the evidence we've gathered to date.
Why don't you show me the peer reviewed articles?
Peer review does not mean a theory is proven. Only when a theory consistently, repeatably provides predictions which are true can it be said to be proven. AGW theory has failed many predictions both about the general progression of warming, and about specific changes in the atmosphere and in certain regions of the Earth. As such it is a falsified theory.

While we're at it, how can there be proper peer review of the models from NASA, Hadley CRU, or IPCC when those groups refuse lawful FOI requests to provide all relevant data?

None of this is to say human CO2 output has no impact. And perhaps a future theory will properly model that impact and allow us to make sound predictions, thereby proving that future model true. But whatever the human signature is, it is almost certainly an order of magnitude smaller than what James Hansen at NASA, or Hadley CRU, or the IPCC, have painted it to be. Their runaway water vapor feedback loops and runaway predictions have already been proven false. If they actually cared about science or the scientific method and provided all their data an analysis for proper peer review maybe one of their critics could show them why and climate science could move forward.
Are you aware that there is not ONE recognised Scientific ortganisation that Doesn't supporty the theory that Global Warming is not only occuring, but is human caused?
Are you aware that not one specific prediction made by AGW climate models has proven true? Are you aware that the scientific method is not a democratic process, that appeal to common belief is not a proof, or that organizations do not necessarily represent the views of their members?
Not one. You have to go to the crank organizations which also tell us that tabacco is good for you before you can find such a group.
Please spend some time with a list of logical fallacies before continuing this debate. It will be beneficial to the conversation. Thanks.

http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/
 
experts dont always get things right
And sometimes we act on their recommendations and our work actually prevents the full effect to happen.
In fact there's no way of knowing what would have happened.
"Works" both ways, doesn't it?
Not really, its you who is making a calim that cannot be proved of refuted.
And then some people will always say "See, it wasn't that bad after all!"
What would be interesting would be an example of experts predicting some kind of dommsday scenario, without countermeasures being taken, that was proven correct.
Like some of those:
http://www.google.co.uk/search?q= "scientists+had+warned"
http://www.google.co.uk/search?q= "experts+had+warned"
?
Yeah experts warning of the risk of an earthquake in a simic area. That is "predicitng" that something similar to what as actually happened 'might" happen again (don;t ask when, nor how big).

It's not exactly the same as predicting increases in global temperature due to man cuased CO2 emissions, right?

http://articles.cnn.com/2010-01-12/tech/caribbean.earthquakes_1_dominican-republic-earthquake-risk-san-andreas-fault?_s=PM:TECH

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Last year Globally was the second warmest since record keeping began back in the 1880's.
Are we sure that record keeping began in 1880 globally ? What was the average temperature in Ouadogfou in 1921?
The surface record is crap. We cannot verify the quality of most of the data today, much less data from 1921. Check out this site regarding the quality of U.S. surface stations: http://www.surfacestations.org/

An estimated 61% of U.S. surface stations today have a margin of error > = 2C. 8% have a margin of error > = 5C. Only 10% have a margin of error less than 1C. The claimed warming for the 20th century is only 0.6C!

What do you think the quality of data is in Russia? Africa? South America? What do you think it was 50 years ago? 100 years ago?

How can anyone possibly make a judgement as to climate trends when the margin of error of the data is 4-5x greater than the claimed trend?

(Queue the believers talking about consensus and tobacco instead of core scientific issues like data quality, theory predictions, and proper peer review by critics of data and models.)
 
out there, the next few days ... watching the evening news ... seems the US midwest will have a record setting winter storm. Be careful out there!! Post some pics and share, your life. I'm still trying to understand how "Global Warming" is creating record setting low temps and record snow falls.
Maybe record lows... in some places. Not where I am. I've looked at my area and over the past 10 or so years record highs outnumber record lows about 8 or 10 to 1.

One cold winter does not alter the progression of over overall climate tendencies. As in any scientific list of data, you will have odd ball readings that get thrown out.
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