What if the D3s is Nikon's answer to the 5DM2?

Just a thought that crossed my mind today as I am still trying to figure out why Nikon released no FF camera in 2010 and still has no 1080 HD high MP FF at any price, much less the moderate one of the 5DM2. If you don't care about video you can pass this thread by, thanks.

But what if the D3s was Nikon's answer to the 5DM2? It might be. Nikon may have been thinking, well, here is your ultra low light 720 video, it's pretty good, here is your clean 12 Mp with superior high iso, that should trump the 21 MP and 1080 video of the 5DM2, right? Oh, and by the way, we're sorry that it's double the price, but you know Nikon has better build quality and better AF so that should explain the double price, right?

I don't agree of course, but my point is, maybe this is why their is still no 1080 high Mp FF from Nikon, they may think they have already matched the 5DM2 with the D3s. Sad but probably true.

So what's next, and when? A 1080 HD upgrade for the D3s but still 12 MP? 720 video for the D700 but still 12 MP? A D3X with 1080 video added (for $9,000)? I know whatever FF camera comes next it has to have 1080 video in it, but high MP also? That would be 8 or 9k for sure. How about a 1080 HD, FF, with 18 MP and the high iso of the D3s? But wouldn't that absolutely kill all sales of the D700 and D3s, and maybe the D3X too?

I just don't see how the next FF from Nikon can be win win, it's either going to be a compromised camera or way too expensive. I guess 2011 could go by just like 2010 with nothing new in FF coming, but that would be so odd and so boring, wouldn't?

There's always... I dunno... the Canon 5D MkII? Seems to be what you want.

Along the same lines, where is Honda's answer to the new Camaro?
Where's Apple's answer to Dell's netbooks?
Where's McDonalds' answer to the Taco Bell gorditas?
Where's Canon's answer to the D3x?
Need I continue?

Dude the D3s price/segment if you compare to Canon is the 1DMKIII and IV then again its a granny smith apple to a red delicious, still different as one is a crop sensor the other fullframe.

Anyone who is comparing a D3s to a 5DMKII doesn't understand the product lineup.

Its a different discussion if you are in need of pixels, video or other features that Nikon does better than Canon

and it is no surprise an FX camera was not released in 2010.

When the D2h came out, everyone was actually switching to Cannon. Despite how much I loved the D2h, it was inferior in many ways to the cannon offerings, especially in high ISO where the sports shooters needed the performance the most.

Despite the mass pro-exodus to the D2h (which was VERY apperent at US sporting events), Nikon kept to their 4 year release schedule, gave us the D2hs midway at the 2 year mark, and then released the awesome D3 where most people started migrating back.

Even when the D2x was released, many pros were complaining because of the D2x's high ISO performance.

The D700 was a surprise release and many newcomers joined the Nikon fold because of it (welcome). The D700 was classified as a pro camera, so it wouldn't surprise me if the D700 followed the same 4 year cycle, although we don't know it yet.

D3s was released 2 years after the D3, which means we will most likely see the D4 this year.

As for the D800?

My gut says, they release a D700s (or even call it a D800) which gets the D3s chip and a few minor modification (maybe even D4 AF) when the D4 is released this year.

Then two years later, the D800 comes to play with the D4 chip as soon as the D4s is released.

There is an outside shot one of the D700s/D800 upgrades gets the D3x chip, which would be cool too. Maybe a D700x or D800x? Only way this happens is if the D4x is released or the D4 is good enough to affect D3x sales to the point the D3x is irrelevant (similar to how the D3 and D300 shoved the D2x off the shelf despite no true D2x replacement at the time).

If Nikon didn't rush to a D3 (I'm glad they didn't) when actual pros were jumping to Cannon, why would Nikon rush a camera release to compete with the 5D MkII when the D700 sells pretty dang well as is?

In Nikon's mind, if you need 1080p video right now, buy the D7000. If you need 12+ MP, you also have the D7000 or the D3x.

you dont need more MP but unless the d700 replacement or D3 replacement has more than 20mp Nikon will look like fools

xjassa said:

There is an outside shot one of the D700s/D800 upgrades gets the D3x chip, which would be cool too. Maybe a D700x or D800x?

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But isn't that the same thing as simply making the D3X affordable, or the same thing as cutting it's price in half? What on earth would Nikon do that for?

xjassa said:

Only way this happens is if the D4x is released or the D4 is good enough to affect D3x sales to the point the D3x is irrelevant (similar to how the D3 and D300 shoved the D2x off the shelf despite no true D2x replacement at the time).

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What is the difference between a D4 and a D4X in your opinion? Is your D4 24MP or 12MP? Does it have 720 video or 1080 video or no video?

xjassa said:

If Nikon didn't rush to a D3 (I'm glad they didn't) when actual pros were jumping to Cannon, why would Nikon rush a camera release to compete with the 5D MkII when the D700 sells pretty dang well as is?

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Because so many more people are expecting 21 MP FF and 1080 HD video as the standard for $2,300? Does anyone have any idea how many Nikon people bought a 5DM2 because Nikon has nothing like it? Does anyone have any idea how many people are waiting for a Nikon 5DM2 spec and price and buying nothing until it shows? It has to be hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

xjassa said:

In Nikon's mind, if you need 1080p video right now, buy the D7000. If you need 12+ MP, you also have the D7000 or the D3x.

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Maybe in their mind but not in mine or millions of potential buyers. D7000, not FF, not pro, end of story. D3X, no video, way to expensive anyway but mostly, no video, it's simply not a 5DM2, which I own.

ScottMac said:

Because so many more people are expecting 21 MP FF and 1080 HD video as the standard for $2,300? Does anyone have any idea how many Nikon people bought a 5DM2 because Nikon has nothing like it? Does anyone have any idea how many people are waiting for a Nikon 5DM2 spec and price and buying nothing until it shows? It has to be hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

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Oh my god. Your hyperbole is lame. Because if you think hundreds of thousands or millions of people are waiting for any particular camera no matter how wonderful, you are insane.

--

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You know, Canon makes a camera called 1D Mark IV, and it's aimed at the same market as the D3s.

Your theory is a bit silly, to be honest. No idea how you came to the conclusion that Nikon made D3s in response to the 5D2.

Nikon sells what? maybe 4 million dslrs a year, of which the VAST majority cost under a grand. I would bet FF dslrs comprise maybe 10% of that market, maybe less.

Nikon is not sure if it wants to become a videography company yet. I think they are still wanting to stick to photography although they are pressured by market to offer video. Video is still an experiment with dslr's, no one knows yet what it's potential and true purpose is.

You might be thinking too small.

Look at the D7000. I think this is the new reference point for their upcoming technology in the middle. I would expect at least a D4 and D400 this year, and you know those will have to be the best DSLRs made at the moment they are released. Nothing else would be conceivable for Nikon. Competition is especially keen considering that the 1DsIV might now land in the same year with the D4.

The D700 successor is a genuine conundrum. If Nikon is able to take the 24.5 MP chip and add video to it, then I think that baby D3x with HD is enough to kill the 5DII. It would have 2 stops better performance, better autofocus, and a body with a much better build. But this raises the question of what Canon will do for a 5DIII. It's not like they have a 1DsIV to port downmarket, and won't for a while yet. I don't know where the 5DIII will come from.

In spite of all this, one thing I can say -

The crown for video king will likely go to the first camera that can produce HD or better video through downsampling full frame captures in real time. This one advance by itself would make other video cameras obsolete.

ScottMac said:

Just a thought that crossed my mind today as I am still trying to figure out why Nikon released no FF camera in 2010 and still has no 1080 HD high MP FF at any price, much less the moderate one of the 5DM2. If you don't care about video you can pass this thread by, thanks.

But what if the D3s was Nikon's answer to the 5DM2? It might be. Nikon may have been thinking, well, here is your ultra low light 720 video, it's pretty good, here is your clean 12 Mp with superior high iso, that should trump the 21 MP and 1080 video of the 5DM2, right? Oh, and by the way, we're sorry that it's double the price, but you know Nikon has better build quality and better AF so that should explain the double price, right?

I don't agree of course, but my point is, maybe this is why their is still no 1080 high Mp FF from Nikon, they may think they have already matched the 5DM2 with the D3s. Sad but probably true.

So what's next, and when? A 1080 HD upgrade for the D3s but still 12 MP? 720 video for the D700 but still 12 MP? A D3X with 1080 video added (for $9,000)? I know whatever FF camera comes next it has to have 1080 video in it, but high MP also? That would be 8 or 9k for sure. How about a 1080 HD, FF, with 18 MP and the high iso of the D3s? But wouldn't that absolutely kill all sales of the D700 and D3s, and maybe the D3X too?

I just don't see how the next FF from Nikon can be win win, it's either going to be a compromised camera or way too expensive. I guess 2011 could go by just like 2010 with nothing new in FF coming, but that would be so odd and so boring, wouldn't?

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bgbs said:

Nikon is not sure if it wants to become a videography company yet. I think they are still wanting to stick to photography although they are pressured by market to offer video. Video is still an experiment with dslr's, no one knows yet what it's potential and true purpose is.

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I think you're right about this. I'm sure Nikon as much as anyone sat up and took notice when droves of videographers and art students went out and bought 5DIIs. And I think they are still wondering what to make out of it, and not that they are at a loss for the possibilities.

But there they are, sitting at the very forefront of the development of the basic digital imaging pipeline -- the very same pipeline that you would use for a video camera or a still camera. Add functionality for video, but the basic pipeline is the same: rapid image acquisition and processing straight down the line.

A momentous convergence will come when still camera capture rates meet up with video capture rates for full frame captures. The first implementation of this will involve video derived from full-frame captures that are downsampled in real time I believe. In a later phase, there will be a RAW streaming format. First at HD quality, then 4K, then who knows.

.. or maybe they are waiting for each other.

From a specs point of view Canon got the better of Nikon when they launched the 5D MK2 a few months after Nikon released the D700. I don't think Nikon wants that to happen again and they are waiting to see what Canon's next move is. If Nikon releases a D800 with 24 MP's and video - then they risk that Canon comes out with a 5D MK3 with 36 MP's and once again they are one step behind.

And if Nikon goes straight to 36 MP's then they will cannibalize sales of the D3x... so I think they are waiting for Canon to make a move...
--
Ronni

http://www.pbase.com/ronnihansen

Scott has a tendency to be like that. Me thinks he is just a Canon fanboy acting out.

--
I'z lovez my AiS'ez

With the new hints of events prohibiting DSLR with video capability, all this may just be a moot point.

--
I'z lovez my AiS'ez

SixDasher said:

With the new hints of events prohibiting DSLR with video capability, all this may just be a moot point.

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What events are those?

Events, as in stadiums (sports) having to do with broadcast rights.

--
I'z lovez my AiS'ez

DSLRS with video are interesting now, but dedicated cameras like NEX will obsolete it. Nikon and canon will probably join the fray.

SixDasher said:

Events, as in stadiums (sports) having to do with broadcast rights.

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Oh that's right! No video equipment due to video licensing infringement! Thanks for reminding me.

The D3s is a large frame, pro-grade body, in both build and performance. It is near the top of Nikon's food chain.

The 5D is in the middle of Canon's line up, and is an entry level FF. It uses an XXD series body, which is small frame, consumer grade body in terms of build and performance. It was deliberately built with an AF roughly as robust as that found in a 30D. The 7D is a more advanced and robust performing body. It is no where near a 1D ... which is Canon's top of the line.

If Nikon wanted to complete with the 5D series, they would take a D40 and put the sensor from the D3x in it. And yes, add HD video and a 3" screen.