Oly's Future IMHO

Wow this thread has been going on for some time. I'll add my two cents worth...

Without some serious change of direction Olympus will be out of the DSLR market. (Period! full stop! arret!) It stated its direction and it killed its entry level. The E5 is the entry level- in fact it is the middle level and top level as well. Very few new users will come to the fold.

Olympus like other manufacturers makes money by pursuing one of three grand strategies:
1. Make a lot of items and sell them at a good profit;
2. Make the lowest cost items on the market;
3. Make niche items and sell them it a select few.

Canon and Nikon are following 1 above. They generate money and profit to develop new cameras. They make a great deal of money on their mid level and premium cameras. The entry level not so much.

Most manufacturers cover number 2 above with digicams or loss leaders in the DSLR range like the Kx or the Canon 1000 or T1i or Nikon 3100.

Leica is a good example of 3 above.

Olympus doesn't have the cachet that Leica has. So it isn't going to be able to make an EP3 and sell it for the price of a Leica X1 or (gasp) an M9. It won't happen.

So Olympus competes with a strategy based on 3 above and tries to make it like 2 above. And it looks like with predictable results. I don't see much real difference between the PENS. Some features have changed but the guts are the same. With good reason because Olympus lacks the money for R&D than its main competitors have (Sony, Panasonic, Nikon and Canon) so you get "product improved" products but not truly new products (for example the D90 and the D7000 as opposed to the D300 and D300s). At the moment everything (possibly aside from a very modest attempt at introducing u4/3rds lens) from Olympus over the last two years has been product improved as opposed to new products. And the E3 to E5 is pretty much a good example of that.

One other point Olympus is wedded to Panasonic as the only other 4/3rd sensor maker. And each needs the other to keep the manufacturing costs down - its a volume game there. So if either wavers the other will feel it.

So clearly lacking R&D resources Olympus is in "harvest" mode. That is - keep the costs down and milk it until it dies.

Business wise there is nothing wrong with what it happening. But then there is great futility in trying to read it any differently. So what can you do?

1. If you like the E system buy the lens and attachments you can while they are still available - for example if there is no entry level cameras exactly who will be buying the 14-42 or the 40-150 in enough volume to keep the line open? If that line dies how does that effect the cost efficiencies of manufacturing the HG line? If that line dies how does that effect the efficiencies of the SHG line?

2. By all means buy the E5. Perhaps it will change Olympuses mind. But don't count on it because someone will have to say what they have done is a mistake. And the Japanese culture doesn't really allow for that to take place easily.

3. And yes I know that the current camera you have won't automatically cease working because Olympus is committing the corporate equivalent of hari kari. But then I don't see many people on this site saying they really want to buy a Konica Minolta Maxxum for example or that even use one. So the market will move on like it already has - only the entry level DSLR's use 12 MP arrays and the number is steadily decreasing. Parts and Pieces will get rarer not more plentiful. And in the future you won't see the E5 selling new for $600 despite only the entry level competition using the 12 MP sensor in the future - even the E30 is selling for just under $1000 here in Canada. So enjoy what you have now and in the near to mid term and maybe ongoing depending on Olympus strategic rethink enjoy the $600 Pens - because that is the strategy for now.
 
And it's not all that bad. I think the ZX-1 will sell very well. Jury's still out on the IQ, but I'm betting (hoping) that it really will be the synthesis of the lens speed of the C5050 and the IQ of the 8080, with IS and the improvements five years has brought. Time will tell. . .

And we have another Pen, with rumors of the semi-pro version and better glass to be announced in the near future.

I think Oly has a strategy and they have a market. It just so happens that it's not the Western Hemisphere. It's Japan, China, the Pacific Rim and the Indian subcontinent. You heard that in one of the interviews around Photokina. We (Europe/US market) are "conservative" which means we don't like sudden shifts in the paradigm. Or to put it another way, we like our mirror-and-prism dslrs. We'll get to where we like mirrorless cams, but it'll take awhile.

Oly Imaging has five years to make a go of it, and they can't afford to wait for our change in attitude. They made a decision to sell what their market wants (and that market has more money than ours right now, as well). The downside is they don't have the resources of a Panasonic or a Canikon so they're building what they can as fast as they can. They've made an E5, which didn't require a lot of R&D, and they'll continue to build HG and SHG lenses because the R&D on those products has been long-since amortized and the profit is excellent. But that's not their market focus and that's not where their market wants them to go. So, E- series cameras are history. They're not going back there.

In the meantime, those of us with E-x/xx/xxx cameras will continue to use them. They're great cameras. They will, ultimately, integrate the 4/3s glass into the m4/3s system because the glass is their crown jewel, and they intend to consolidate Olympus into a mirrorless-bodied line of cameras. In that sense, they're ahead of Nikon, Canon and Pentax. Those companies are facing some tough decisions in the next couple of years - decisions that Oly's already made.

So they do have a plan, and if we choose, we can go with them. But the Western Hemisphere market is no longer dictating where the product line will go. In a couple of years, I think we'll be fine with the products they're selling.

Between now and then, my 330 and my 500 will work just fine. And I am going to replace my 5050 with a ZX-1.
 
I think Oly has a strategy and they have a market. It just so happens that it's not the Western Hemisphere. It's Japan, China, the Pacific Rim and the Indian subcontinent. You heard that in one of the interviews around Photokina. We (Europe/US market) are "conservative" which means we don't like sudden shifts in the paradigm. Or to put it another way, we like our mirror-and-prism dslrs. We'll get to where we like mirrorless cams, but it'll take awhile.

Oly Imaging has five years to make a go of it, and they can't afford to wait for our change in attitude. They made a decision to sell what their market wants (and that market has more money than ours right now, as well). Pentax. Those companies are facing some tough decisions in the next couple of years - decisions that Oly's already made.
It isn't just our industries and jobs leaving us for Asia, it's our suppliers now forsaking us.

Will Oly make soemthing as good as the GH2 or even the G1?

--
================================
Enjoying Photography like never before with the E-450!
Images, photo and gimp tips:
http://olympe450rants.blogspot.com/

NORWEGIAN WOOD GALLERY
http://fourthirds-user.com/galleries/showgallery.php/cat/888

Olympus' Own E450 Gallery http://asia.olympus-imaging.com/products/dslr/e450/sample/

"to be is to do" Descartes;
"to do is to be" Satre ;

............................"DoBeDoBeDo" Sinatra.
=============================
 
krh,

Yes, I do remember a statement by an Oly exec stating 12 megs was enough. But just the same, how do you know what the relationship is between Panasonic and Oly as to sensor use?
Larry
...

Oly has pointed out that 12mp, would be enough to compete with most all crop sensors... and they stuck with their plan with the E-5. (PANASONIC DID NOT REFUSE OLYMPUS THEIR LATEST SENSOR, It was an Olympus decision to work with the True-pic +VI processor on the 12mp sensor!).
...
 
Or to think that Micro 4/3 would not get HG glass or semipro cameras, just like 4/3 did:

http://www.43rumors.com/ft4-panasonic-is-preparing-a-12-50mm-f2-5-3-3-zoom/

If a solution can't be had for full backwards compatibility, that won't prevent Micro having the best.

That also begs the question: If you don't want to go mirrorless, will you go with another brand because you can't stop your dSLR habit?

Or would you rather stay with the new 4/3 and Oly?
There is no new Oly 4/3 DSLR ...... only a new release.
Leo
 
Wow this thread has been going on for some time. I'll add my two cents worth...

Without some serious change of direction Olympus will be out of the DSLR market. (Period! full stop! arret!) It stated its direction and it killed its entry level. The E5 is the entry level- in fact it is the middle level and top level as well. Very few new users will come to the fold.

Olympus like other manufacturers makes money by pursuing one of three grand strategies:
1. Make a lot of items and sell them at a good profit;
2. Make the lowest cost items on the market;
3. Make niche items and sell them it a select few.

Canon and Nikon are following 1 above. They generate money and profit to develop new cameras. They make a great deal of money on their mid level and premium cameras. The entry level not so much.

Most manufacturers cover number 2 above with digicams or loss leaders in the DSLR range like the Kx or the Canon 1000 or T1i or Nikon 3100.

Leica is a good example of 3 above.

Olympus doesn't have the cachet that Leica has. So it isn't going to be able to make an EP3 and sell it for the price of a Leica X1 or (gasp) an M9. It won't happen.

So Olympus competes with a strategy based on 3 above and tries to make it like 2 above. And it looks like with predictable results. I don't see much real difference between the PENS. Some features have changed but the guts are the same. With good reason because Olympus lacks the money for R&D than its main competitors have (Sony, Panasonic, Nikon and Canon) so you get "product improved" products but not truly new products (for example the D90 and the D7000 as opposed to the D300 and D300s). At the moment everything (possibly aside from a very modest attempt at introducing u4/3rds lens) from Olympus over the last two years has been product improved as opposed to new products. And the E3 to E5 is pretty much a good example of that.

One other point Olympus is wedded to Panasonic as the only other 4/3rd sensor maker. And each needs the other to keep the manufacturing costs down - its a volume game there. So if either wavers the other will feel it.

So clearly lacking R&D resources Olympus is in "harvest" mode. That is - keep the costs down and milk it until it dies.

Business wise there is nothing wrong with what it happening. But then there is great futility in trying to read it any differently. So what can you do?

1. If you like the E system buy the lens and attachments you can while they are still available - for example if there is no entry level cameras exactly who will be buying the 14-42 or the 40-150 in enough volume to keep the line open? If that line dies how does that effect the cost efficiencies of manufacturing the HG line? If that line dies how does that effect the efficiencies of the SHG line?
There would be plenty Oly senses available if no new Oly DSLR released in the future.
2. By all means buy the E5. Perhaps it will change Olympuses mind. But don't count on it because someone will have to say what they have done is a mistake. And the Japanese culture doesn't really allow for that to take place easily.
You advice to spend $1,700 just to please Olympus???? They should earn it!
3. And yes I know that the current camera you have won't automatically cease working because Olympus is committing the corporate equivalent of hari kari. But then I don't see many people on this site saying they really want to buy a Konica Minolta Maxxum for example or that even use one. So the market will move on like it already has - only the entry level DSLR's use 12 MP arrays and the number is steadily decreasing. Parts and Pieces will get rarer not more plentiful. And in the future you won't see the E5 selling new for $600 despite only the entry level competition using the 12 MP sensor in the future - even the E30 is selling for just under $1000 here in Canada. So enjoy what you have now and in the near to mid term and maybe ongoing depending on Olympus strategic rethink enjoy the $600 Pens - because that is the strategy for now.
I have read 3) two times ..... you do it :-)

Leo
 
krh,

Yes, I do remember a statement by an Oly exec stating 12 megs was enough. But just the same, how do you know what the relationship is between Panasonic and Oly as to sensor use?
Later he took it back.
Leo
Larry
...

Oly has pointed out that 12mp, would be enough to compete with most all crop sensors... and they stuck with their plan with the E-5. (PANASONIC DID NOT REFUSE OLYMPUS THEIR LATEST SENSOR, It was an Olympus decision to work with the True-pic +VI processor on the 12mp sensor!).
...
 
Yes, I predicted the same last June. sSLR and fast zooms were made for the American and European, which were Oly's main foreign markets.

One should have checked what happened in Japan, after the downturn with mirrorless gradually replacing dSLR, with Cindia and the Dragons becoming the new export markets.

These markets are not dSLR centric. I anything they lived on the P&S paradigm and Micro 4/3 was the natural upgrade path.

The big difference with classic 4/3 is that the new system is built bottom up that is why it was and it is still despised here. But it is its strength because it has now a strength that classic 4/3 never had. Bit by bit it is also becoming a general purpose system, with the finest IQ available and user firendly cameras. An important factor for people who never had an ILS camera, or a camera at all.

Am.
--
Photostream: http://www.flickr.com/photos/amalric
 
More and more people want to go small with their photo-taking, whether we like it or not. The new iPad coming out in the spring will have a camera built-in---and compact cameras are being replaced by the cameras in smartphones. In other words, the market for a mid-range DSLR is getting smaller.

Small is the future. Big machines like the E-5, way overpriced and certainly not small, are for the very select few and some pros. Micro 4/3, though not exactly pocketable, is Oly's best chance for survival and to create mass appeal products.

And the quality is very good. From and E-520 (and E-PL1) owner.
--
Roberthd12
 

Keyboard shortcuts

Back
Top