Oly's Future IMHO

As we debate the future of OLY in terms of Nikon and Canon, would it be possible someone that may be able to, provide a short comparison of the stock prices for the last, say, 5 years? That way judgment of the publics response to the three companies through verifiable means might be seen clearer than judging from wishes and personal perceptions. After all, would the public (in general) buy shares in a perceived failing company?

Wouldn't tell you a thing. Oly Camera is a a Division of Olympus which makes high end, expensive medical and optical equipment as well.
Ricnard

mfbernstein said:

Diogopin said:

Whether the Chinese factories were so overloaded or not that they couldn't switch to the e-5 is irrelevant. Could they have switched over to produce more e-5s? Sure. But that is a costly procedure, and they'd lose a bunch of money if demand isn't sustained enough to justify that switch 6 months down the road.

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Exactly. They overproduced the E-3, resulting in significant discounting early on. They're not making the same mistake with the E-5.

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Id be interested to see what proof there is of this ?
sounds pretty muck like a biased assumption

mfbernstein said:

--
MFBernstein

'Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit.' - Ed Abbey

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Riley

any similarity to persons living or dead is coincidental and unintended

Richard Pavek said:

Wouldn't tell you a thing. Oly Camera is a a Division of Olympus which makes high end, expensive medical and optical equipment as well.
Ricnard

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I agree on the whole, but I wonder what the stats on the respective divisions would be should that be able to be ascertained.

Indeed, lenses tell a lot about future intentions.

I predicted that as soon the first HG lens would be issued for Micro, classic 4/3 would become a legacy system. Almost no one would buy the old 50mm if the new works better.

I keep the old 9-18, but no one in their right mind would buy but the new one, an so forth.

Whatever the OP thought it's clear that the legacy system won't be kept only to make birders happy.

I also guessed that the coming Micro will be a semipro. Not a Pro. A weathersealed Micro pro perhaps might be planned for 2012-2013 just in time to replace the E-5.

At the moment the GH2 is ahead of the pack, both in terms of focus and viewfinder processing, so one might draw inspiration from there.

As for SHG glass there's a big question mark. Either the new system will be able to adapt it, or it won't.

Either it will be miniaturised, as much as possible, or dropped if the form factor has to be kept small, which is the main competitive advantage of Micro.

Possibly with in-camera correction, applied to light, miniaturised HG glass, Oly might deem it unnecessary to keep making it.

Legacy glass like Leica or CV keeps being used on Micro, but because it's remarkably small. Who would today use the long zooms of the film era?

It's interesting that the only surviving dSLR at Oly is a big camera, thus designed for big SHG glass.

But for all the other bodies lenses are being miniaturised. That I thinks is the main task Oly has set itself to, with fast CDAF having priority - not adapting earlier glass, which commands no market share.

Thinking that the Endoscope division will keep paying for the old system, is an example of the deeply flawed thinking of the past, which has brought Oly's camera division to the brink of extinction.

Am.

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amalric said:

Whatever the OP thought it's clear that the legacy system won't be kept only to make birders happy.

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Funny you mention birders, as birding and macro are probably the only specialized areas of photography where Four Thirds has a decided advantage due to its sensor size. The 50-200mm and 70-300mm may have APS-C peers in terms of reach and image quality, but I doubt there are any stabilized lenses that represent the same value.

amalric said:

But for all the other bodies lenses are being miniaturised. That I thinks is the main task Oly has set itself to, with fast CDAF having priority - not adapting earlier glass, which commands no market share.

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The miniaturization makes sense for wide angle and possibly normal lenses, where the shorter flange distance allows miniaturization without significant loss of image quality. But, as I'm sure you know, the same is not true for telephotos - the Micro 75-300mm has only 30% less weight and volume than the Four Thirds 70-300mm, it's half a stop slower, and from what I've seen so far the corners aren't as sharp.

amalric said:

Thinking that the Endoscope division will keep paying for the old system, is an example of the deeply flawed thinking of the past, which has brought Oly's camera division to the brink of extinction.

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Ignoring the importance of telephoto just because you don't don't shoot those focal lengths is flawed thinking as well.

LinusP said:

Ignoring the importance of telephoto just because you don't don't shoot those focal lengths is flawed thinking as well.

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On no. But people like you being dSLR and Oly-centric tend to ignore that most Micro owners already own a Canon or Nikon.

So they will keep shooting their tele targets with them, and keep Micro for shorter focals.

BTW it might not even be true. it seems that the new Panny 100-300 is excellent. Some daring birders will flock there

Oly at any rate won't loose any of its growing market share because of birders, like it was doing before.

Not much into lateral thinking are we?

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amalric said:

LinusP said:

Ignoring the importance of telephoto just because you don't don't shoot those focal lengths is flawed thinking as well.

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On no. But people like you being dSLR and Oly-centric tend to ignore that most Micro owners already own a Canon or Nikon.

So they will keep shooting their tele targets with them, and keep Micro for shorter focals.

BTW it might not even be true. it seems that the new Panny 100-300 is excellent. Some daring birders will flock there

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thats unfortunate b/se what they really needed was a 200-400

amalric said:

Oly at any rate won't loose any of its growing market share because of birders, like it was doing before.

Not much into lateral thinking are we?

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Photostream: http://www.flickr.com/photos/amalric

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Riley

any similarity to persons living or dead is coincidental and unintended

If Olympus had to drop something, it would be the low end bodies. Competition is fierce, profit margins are low, and M43 is getting a lot of its customers from... low end dslr's.

Developing HG and SHG glass for M43 faces a serious problem: as the sensor size is the same, it's going to be very difficult to shrink the glass further and keep the F2-F2.8 aperture. And size is one of the greatest obstacles to using the HG zooms on a Pen body.

Yes, the UWA lenses did shrink, but I believe that's as much the short registration distance negating the need for a retrofocal design as anything. Getting into the longer focal lengths, there doesn't appear to be any size advantage. The PL 45 2.8 Macro is about the same size as the ZD 50 F2 Macro.

At the same time, the E5 seems to be showing that as resolution rises, the better ZD lenses really start to shine, while the older legacy film lens designs really begin to show their age. And HG ZD is the next logical upgrade for an M43 enthusiast. Comparing the MZD 14-42 to the ZD 14-54 or 12-60 is like... comparing the ZD 14-42 to the 14-54 or 12-60.

However, glass like HG and SHG ZD can't be designed overnight, that's seven years of work by optical masters. There isn't much, if any, size advantage to be gained by a M4/3 redesign of the ZD zooms. And the only thing standing between M4/3 and a set of razor sharp fast zooms, fully proven with development costs paid for, is CDAF capability and a battery grip. That's a multiyear head start on anyone else looking to get into the rapidly expanding high IQ micro camera market, and puts Oly at least on a par with (if not a step ahead of) the new pellicle mirror Sony micro dslr's in terms of faster glass.

It's not only in our best interest, but in Oly's best interests, to get HG and SHG ZD to work well on a Pen body. And that's what they said they are going to do. They just haven't said when.

I tend to think the 2012 time frame sounds realistic. Oly has shown itself to be remarkably agile in the M43 market. Perhaps they'll be equally agile on this subject.

Richard Pavek said:

Not to be picky but how long has the Nikon been out? (I have no idea) What was its price when introduced?

Richard

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It has been announced on Sept 15, 2010 with retail price $1,499 (kit lens 18-105 VR).
Leo

Richard Pavek said:

Leo, what's your point?

Are you just debating prices? I don't have a Nikon, I have a Oly.

Right now I have an E-5 which is the first of two to replace my two e-3s.

The camera is a major improvement over the E-3. In every way.
Noise.
Color.
Sharpness.
Ability to cAF.

(And that is with both the EC14 and EC20, neither of which did well with the E-3)

My main lens has been the ZD300 because I mainly shoot birds in flight. Now my main lens is the ZD300 + the EC14. No loss of detail with the EC14.

So as far as I am concerned, I really don't care what Nikon charges. Who knows, perhaps if Oly was selling as many lenses as Nikon they would be able to lower the price?

Richard

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I have opened the E-5 raw files with newly updated LR3 and agree with you It does not behave as E-620. Probably the sensor is different and hold highlights in place well while E-620 does not.
Leo

Leo said:

Richard Pavek said:

Leo, what's your point?

Are you just debating prices? I don't have a Nikon, I have a Oly.

Right now I have an E-5 which is the first of two to replace my two e-3s.

The camera is a major improvement over the E-3. In every way.
Noise.
Color.
Sharpness.
Ability to cAF.

(And that is with both the EC14 and EC20, neither of which did well with the E-3)

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After 3 years (given current product cycles), the E5 should be better than the E3.
Whether it's competitive with other products is questionable.

It is difficult to draw any conclusion from the shortage of E-5s. The actual sales figures are not available. There may be a limited number produced. People may be buying because they have waited for years and there do not seem like another one soon, or just afraid it could be the last chance to get a new DSLR, if the unthinkable should happen. Hopefully it is really a huge amount of sales and Olympus will be encouraged to keep DFSLRs coming.

I hope you're right. I'm probably one of many who would love to join the Olympus bandwagon and get me some good glass - but the perspective of buying into a dying technology has so far stopped me. Which is silly - I know the cameras are exactly what I need in terms of build and image quality. I do plenty of shooting in the backcountry and under harsh conditions - if it's cold, wet and/or sandy, you're likely to find me. The tank build of the Olympus would be of great benefit to me.

Since I'm an amatuer with an expensive hobby I have to take the resell value into consideration as well though and unless Oly issues some kind of commitment to the line - I can't commit.

Regards,
Bele

Manchu said:

It is difficult to draw any conclusion from the shortage of E-5s. The actual sales figures are not available. There may be a limited number produced. People may be buying because they have waited for years and there do not seem like another one soon, or just afraid it could be the last chance to get a new DSLR, if the unthinkable should happen.

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It may happened. I think Olympus new hope is E-PL2. E-5 would have hard time to compete simply because not that much different (weight - size) and not a frontrunner.

Manchu said:

.... Hopefully it is really a huge amount of sales and Olympus will be encouraged to keep DFSLRs coming.

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Uklympus DSLR sales in actual numbers very small. Also, for $1700 body not much of the crowd would jump. Nikon D7000 with sealed magnesium body + many pluses is $1200 for body only. It is a big difference.
Leo

BelePhotography said:

I hope you're right. I'm probably one of many who would love to join the Olympus bandwagon and get me some good glass - but the perspective of buying into a dying technology has so far stopped me. Which is silly - I know the cameras are exactly what I need in terms of build and image quality. I do plenty of shooting in the backcountry and under harsh conditions - if it's cold, wet and/or sandy, you're likely to find me. The tank build of the Olympus would be of great benefit to me.

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There are K-5 and D7000 both with magneziun bodies and sealed. Also rated at the top. I was waiting for E-5 ... and now just waiting.

BelePhotography said:

Since I'm an amatuer with an expensive hobby I have to take the resell value into consideration as well though and unless Oly issues some kind of commitment to the line - I can't commit.

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It seems that Olympus commitments to DSLR users somewat forgotten by theit leadership - the current attention is on micro 4/3 and the E-PL2 is empring camera + in Olympus spirit.

Regards,

BelePhotography said:

Bele

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Or to think that Micro 4/3 would not get HG glass or semipro cameras, just like 4/3 did:

http://www.43rumors.com/ft4-panasonic-is-preparing-a-12-50mm-f2-5-3-3-zoom/

If a solution can't be had for full backwards compatibility, that won't prevent Micro having the best.

That also begs the question: If you don't want to go mirrorless, will you go with another brand because you can't stop your dSLR habit?

Or would you rather stay with the new 4/3 and Oly?

Am.
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Photostream: http://www.flickr.com/photos/amalric

in the mean time





--
Riley

any similarity to persons living or dead is coincidental and unintended

Punching below the belt?

No perspective, mh?

Am.
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Photostream: http://www.flickr.com/photos/amalric

I kinda hope they stop making 4/3 cameras and become a 3rd party lens manufacturing company with aps-c and FF versions of those great Zuiko zooms. They would make a hell of alot more money selling lenses to nikon, canon, pentax, and sony than keeping 4/3 dslrs going. They are concentrating on m4/3 anyway.