The future of DSLR, even professional DSLR, is unclear...???

aperture 56

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After recent announcements from FUJI and other companies as well, I see a tendency of some camera makers investing a lot of recources in creating a small professional camera, and there is a an obvious market demand for this. I have a feeling that these big cameras ala D700, D3s, 7D, 5D mark II etc. in three years, maybe later, are going to disappear from the market, and photographers will shoot weddings, serious photojournalism... with cameras ala recent Fuji X100... Of course, Nikon, Canon for obvious reasons don't want that to happen, but even they are big players they will be hard pressed by Fuji, Olympus Panasonic, Samsung, Sony to change the concept of digital pro camera... when exactly this is going to happen? I don't know... maybe not any time soon or at all??? What do you guys think about the future of DSLR cameras???...
 
I don't know any professional photographers who would shoot with an LCD display instead of a real viewfinder and there are some good reasons for that. I don't think you will see the DSLR fading away until EVFs have evolved to the point they are an adequate substitute.

You seem to think smaller and lighter is always preferable. I don't feel that way. I prefer the size and heft of a heavier and more stable camera. I use compacts when the situation dictates it but I prefer carrying my DSLR. I am not the only one who feels this way. There are many such people on this set of forums.

The advent of smaller cameras with bigger sensors and better optics has been a wonderful development and it is rightfully taking its market share. However, I doubt very seriously these cameras will replace the DSLR any time soon in the professional world. When the DSLR is finally rendered obsolete, it will not be replaced with a pocket sized camera, no matter how good the image quality. Just look at what has happened with video cameras. It is now possible to buy one that you can hold in the palm of your hand that produces the same video quality as shoulder carried cameras of just a few years ago. Yet, professional videographers still use shoulder mounted cameras essentially 100% of the time. Size and weight can be an asset.
 
Pro level, even pro-wannabe, is a fairly small segment. What's of greater interest, and definitely greater impact on us amateurs, is the low end DSLR: it is disappearing.

Note that there were no new entry level dslr's this fall, aside from maybe the Sony a35 (I think), that hasn't come out yet. A curious omission, especially with the global recession still dragging, and people thinking value. The D7000 appears to be a merging of the D300 and D90. Canon put out the 60D. Olympus debuted the E5. Pentax put out the Kr, an amateur level camera.

On the small end, Samsung retooled the NX10 in a much smaller form - there's an interesting sign. Small sells. A slew of new very nice and very compact lenses for M43. Sony now has two compact ILS camera systems - getting a bit crowded there. Then comes the Fuji compact with a surprisingly restrained 12mp, and Olympus put their best optical engineers to work on a high quality fixed lens compact.

But, base line, entry level dslr's, that are getting a bit long in the tooth for most manufacturers? Nothing. My guess is that the camera companies have seen the change in consumer tastes coming, and have decided to focus on the dedicated amateur, who is numercially smaller than the consumer, but far steadier and more predictable in their buying habits. That's what all the dslr's released this fall cater to.

Let's be honest here - we were getting a free ride from the consumers picking up dslr's because they were the 'cool' thing to have. All of us know quite a few people like that - bought a D3000 or 550D with a kit lens and maybe one cheap tele zoom to get family snapshots. They, not us, were driving the low end DSLR, because there are so many more of them than us. That massive buying power gave us fierce competition and absurdly low prices. However, the cool thing to have these days is a compact system, just as an iPad is cooler than even a netbook. Fickle? Of course, but that's the nature of consumer marketing. The consumer has discovered that they can have the terrific image quality, without the bulk and high profile, in a sleek little mini-rangefinder style body. The DSLR is beginning to look a bit old school to them.

It isn't that the new compact systems are 'better' than a DSLR, they aren't. They're almost as good, and a lot more convenient.

Hate to say it, but the heady days of huge performance leaps and lower prices are coming to an end. We aren't going to see 5D-> 5DII or D2x-> D3 again. Nor will we see a $500 dsr smoking a $2000 dslr from two years previous. Between sensor performance pretty much maxing out what can be used for most photographs, and the all powerful consumer's tastes changing and taking that huge block of revenue with them, future growth in dslr system will probably be far more restrained than the go-go days of the last five years. Some time in the future, say about half an hour from now, we'll look back on the 2005-2010 time frame as the 'golden age' of the DSLR.

It's interesting to note that much the same thing is going on in the personal computer world. The traditional PC hit a plateau in performance. Multicore isn't adding that much to overall performance, a 5 year old PC meets most people's needs, and the hot thing to have today is a smartphone or iPad. Or both. Small is the new cool, in more ways than one.
 
I keep reading that DSLRs are going away, especially at the entry level. However, I haven't seen any sales figures that confirm that opinion. I tried searching on line and the sketchy information i found leads me to believe that DSLR sales are failrly constant. Do you know of any websites that provide sales volumes for recent years and months?
 
For years a lot of professional film work was done without an SLR. The Lieca rangefinders were legendary and view cameras about ruled landscape photography. However, if you need a long telephoto shot, in my opinion, nothing replaces an SLR to date. Trying to take high resolution pictures while looking through a low res viewfinder is possible but time consuming and hopeless for fast moving objects like birds and wildlife. It all boils down to what you are shooting.
 
The op suggested 3yrs possibly more, I would suggest 20yrs possibly more.
 
I can't really imagine shooting what I currently shoot at weddings without an optical through-the-lens viewfinder and phase-detection autofocus. I shoot every shot at a wedding in AI-servo mode, and I'm often shooting fast-moving subjects with fast primes and shallow depth-of-field. These stupid-looking little boxes with bad ergonomics that lack the features that make a dSLR so useful today are totally uninteresting to me.

--
Lee Jay
(see profile for equipment)
 
Thanks guys, interesting to read your opinions... Actually, I don't know any sales numbers of today's market... I think holding and shooting dslr is very comfortable for the hand, while these new compact cameras don't have the ergonomics of dslr... one day I went to the store and tried to hold oly pen e-p1 with zoom lens attached, and you know, while it looks cool and small, it isn't realy comfortable to hold and shoot with as it's with, lets say, nikon dslr d90... cameras like e-p1, x100 are more comfortable to carry in a narrow bag but not really in your hand when shooting... I mean they are OK but dslr cameras are still way more comfortable, especially if you need to shoot for longer than 15 min... these new compact cameras only make sense with pancake lens attached... but with better, bigger and heavier zoom like 24- 70mm 2.8 they would make no sense at all, even though the 2.8 zoom for mirrorless camera is a bit smaller and lighter than for dslr... Somehow, I tend to think that these new aps-c compact cameras will remain a niche cameras and won't even replace entry higher level dslr cameras, I am not even talking about pro dslr...
 
well , the typical mirrorless like NEX and MFT will die out soon because of the big sensor compact with zooms(Fuji will release another one with zoom design) but the pro level DSLRs will become some kind of EVF camera with current or a bit modified mount system.

I think the Sony A99 or A88 will be the start of this new pro DSLR trend.

All OVF cams'll become like current RF , very nitche.

I , for one , cannot wait pro level DSRs like the A900 become an EVF cam that takes all my A mount lenses and EF.

EVF makes cam smaller and more usable for video shooting or macro work.

If you use the A55V , you will never go back to traditional DSLRs for macro work.
After recent announcements from FUJI and other companies as well, I see a tendency of some camera makers investing a lot of recources in creating a small professional camera, and there is a an obvious market demand for this. I have a feeling that these big cameras ala D700, D3s, 7D, 5D mark II etc. in three years, maybe later, are going to disappear from the market, and photographers will shoot weddings, serious photojournalism... with cameras ala recent Fuji X100... Of course, Nikon, Canon for obvious reasons don't want that to happen, but even they are big players they will be hard pressed by Fuji, Olympus Panasonic, Samsung, Sony to change the concept of digital pro camera... when exactly this is going to happen? I don't know... maybe not any time soon or at all??? What do you guys think about the future of DSLR cameras???...
--
derek.
 
I don't have exact numbers, however I do sell cameras for a living and I can say that DSLR sales are down . . . way down.

I'd guestimate that our DSLR sales are down around 40-50% from last year.

P&S sales about the same . . .

--
J. D.
Colorado


  • Who says you need a DSLR to get the shot? (from Olympus Tough 8000)
 
As long as there's nothing comparable to SLR optical finder and PD AF, DSLR is a pretty obvious choice for me.
After recent announcements from FUJI and other companies as well, I see a tendency of some camera makers investing a lot of recources in creating a small professional camera, and there is a an obvious market demand for this. I have a feeling that these big cameras ala D700, D3s, 7D, 5D mark II etc. in three years, maybe later, are going to disappear from the market, and photographers will shoot weddings, serious photojournalism... with cameras ala recent Fuji X100... Of course, Nikon, Canon for obvious reasons don't want that to happen, but even they are big players they will be hard pressed by Fuji, Olympus Panasonic, Samsung, Sony to change the concept of digital pro camera... when exactly this is going to happen? I don't know... maybe not any time soon or at all??? What do you guys think about the future of DSLR cameras???...
 
I don't think so. I'm an ametuer, and my kit still weighs about 30 pounds, little of it being the body. What I'm after is a solid body that can take abuse - knocked over tripod, rolled out of a car, standing in the rain, etc. I don't care if it costs $1k or $4k, I just want it to work for years.
 
What I find funny about this logic is that we had film cameras the size of these new smaller cameras and it never killed the film SLR genre. I mean did the Canonet kill the F1 and AE-1? Olympus RC kill the OM-1? They had rangefinders all through the film era and now digital rangefinders and they did nothing to the sales of the traditional SLR. So why is now different?
 
Solve the problem of shallow depth of field and you might have a winner. Until then large sensors rule.
These newer cameras like the X100, NEX, etc. have SLR-sized sensors, so not sure this is a relevant argument.
APS-C .... meh.

Full frame is where it's at for many (most?) pros, and not just because of high-ISO performance.
 
When flying pigs can make sensors and lens in a P&S as good or better than a full size DSLR, your prediction will come true - and not a day sooner.
After recent announcements from FUJI and other companies as well, I see a tendency of some camera makers investing a lot of recources in creating a small professional camera, and there is a an obvious market demand for this. I have a feeling that these big cameras ala D700, D3s, 7D, 5D mark II etc. in three years, maybe later, are going to disappear from the market, and photographers will shoot weddings, serious photojournalism... with cameras ala recent Fuji X100... Of course, Nikon, Canon for obvious reasons don't want that to happen, but even they are big players they will be hard pressed by Fuji, Olympus Panasonic, Samsung, Sony to change the concept of digital pro camera... when exactly this is going to happen? I don't know... maybe not any time soon or at all??? What do you guys think about the future of DSLR cameras???...
--
People who merely claim to be open minded never see it my way.
 
After recent announcements from FUJI and other companies as well, I see a tendency of some camera makers investing a lot of recources in creating a small professional camera, and there is a an obvious market demand for this. I have a feeling that these big cameras ala D700, D3s, 7D, 5D mark II etc. in three years, maybe later, are going to disappear from the market, and photographers will shoot weddings, serious photojournalism... with cameras ala recent Fuji X100... Of course, Nikon, Canon for obvious reasons don't want that to happen, but even they are big players they will be hard pressed by Fuji, Olympus Panasonic, Samsung, Sony to change the concept of digital pro camera... when exactly this is going to happen? I don't know... maybe not any time soon or at all??? What do you guys think about the future of DSLR cameras???...
Ahahahaha!

Yeah, yeah, didn't we also hear this, like - 3 years ago as well?

dslr's are never completely going away. Because -

1. There will always be someone who wants the absolute best picture quality they can get, and dslr's with a larger sensor and more room for higher quality glass will always be better than cameras that are smaller. Improvements that make one better will make the other better as well, no matter how good smaller cameras get the bigger ones will always be better.

For average people we've already crossed the line where compact cameras take "good enough" pictures for decent lighting. Perhaps one day they'll even take "good enough" pictures for regular night indoor lighting. But there continue to be the professionals, who want the best image quality they can get.

2. Obviously smaller sensor cameras can't get that "blurry background" look easily like a large sensor can.

3. Regarding the new "small body" cameras, as soon as you put a lens with any kind of zoom on, the camera gets much, much bigger.

4. Physically larger lenses are sometimes needed to get the "best" image quality. And really, when your lens is 8 inches long, who cares if the camera is 1 inch deep, 2 inches deep, or 4 inches deep?

5. A larger camera body (to a point) is more ergonomic, and if you're shooting pictures all day a lightweight but physically comfortable camera is still going to be preferred.

Other reasons that might be solvable but we don't have yet -

1. dslr's still enjoy a noticeable advantage in autofocus speed over anything else. The micro 4/3rds still have some lag. And from my understanding, a mirror is currently needed to get the better autofocus performance.

2. Even with a good live view implementation, the lcd update lag makes it hard track fast moving subjects (like a bird flying) difficult compared to a viewfinder where there's not lag. And viewfinder still currently wins in bright light visibility - lcd's have gotten a lot better, but they're still not perfect.

3. Lightweight lenses - just in weight alone, lenses with any sort of zoom or premium image quality still weigh quite a bit. What's the point in having a 1/10th of a pound camera if the lens still weighs 0.5 pounds? It also makes the camera harder to hold if the camera weighs significantly less than the lens. So you might as well have some weight in the camera.

As long as the premium lenses are relatively large and heavy, dslr's will have no competition from the smaller cameras. If you have to bring a large, heavy lens, might as well get the ergonomics and better balance of a larger camera body as well.
 
After recent announcements from FUJI and other companies as well, I see a tendency of some camera makers investing a lot of recources in creating a small professional camera, and there is a an obvious market demand for this. I have a feeling that these big cameras ala D700, D3s, 7D, 5D mark II etc. in three years, maybe later, are going to disappear from the market, and photographers will shoot weddings, serious photojournalism... with cameras ala recent Fuji X100... Of course, Nikon, Canon for obvious reasons don't want that to happen, but even they are big players they will be hard pressed by Fuji, Olympus Panasonic, Samsung, Sony to change the concept of digital pro camera... when exactly this is going to happen? I don't know... maybe not any time soon or at all??? What do you guys think about the future of DSLR cameras???...
Ahahahaha!

Yeah, yeah, didn't we also hear this, like - 3 years ago as well?
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1018&message=1456578

--
Lee Jay
(see profile for equipment)
 

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