speculating the next 4/3 cam and trends

going thru all forum posts and rumors, just want to give my guestimate of the next 4/3 cam or trend:

1) No more 4/3 cam, not even long awaited e-5
2) Build adapter to give optical viewfinder and PDAF to existing m4/3
3) Continue to upgrade and improve on better m4/3 cams and lens
4) So, no more new 4/3 lens but more m4/3 lens.

5) consumers can choose between portable m4/3 systems (slower but improving AF) or bulkier m4/3 + PDAF adapter + 4/3 lens for faster AF

--
Minliang
http://practical-photography.blogspot.com/
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I think what you depict would be the situation in 2011, hopefully with yet improved CDAF.

In 2010 I have come to believe that there will be a conventional 4/3 E-5, allowing to weather the transition, and to satisfy diehards.

Am.
--
Photostream: http://www.flickr.com/photos/amalric

Weather being a key question. mFT not being something you can currently use whatever the weather. But an e-5 this year would give them until 2014 to come up with a high performance, speed (as e-5) and weathersealed mFT body. Nothing else makes sense to my needs as an Olympus user.

You probably meant whether alamric
--
'If you ever get a camera up your bum, it'll probably be an Olympus' - nomix
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Olympus as teacher...
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the trend so far pointed by many places is the E-5 is happening.

--
Raist3d (Photographer & Tools/Systems/Gui Games Developer)
Andreas Feininger (1906-1999) 'Photographers — idiots, of which there are
so many — say, “Oh, if only I had a Nikon or a Leica, I could make great
photographs.” That’s the dumbest thing I ever heard in my life. It’s
nothing but a matter of seeing, and thinking, and interest. That’s what
makes a good photograph.'

Sorry amalric you had the right word weather. Silly dpreview not having proper edit. They obviously don't trust us
--
'If you ever get a camera up your bum, it'll probably be an Olympus' - nomix
'pictures not photos' - myself realising my username is wrong
'© Douglas Symon' - applies to all the photographs I post
http://cherrytreeblog.talepictures.com/
Olympus as teacher...
Four Thirds forum for Finnish speakers http://neljakolmasosaa.dakuva.net/

. . . . that the World wide economy is "bad" and getting worse.

I also think that OLY Digicam is not a "cash rich" company and, over the past years, has limited itself to a relatively small number of products while trying to remain competitive with CaNikon in a few (small) market segments.

I believe that OLY can hold its' own, and even be superior in some cases, from the technology point of view. There is a growing market that is not very technically sophisticated, and, will buy CaNikon simply because of the name. (OLY's non-existent Product Marketing keeps them out of this segment.)

Given all of the above, I also believe that OLY will limit itself to technically exceptional products. We have all noticed, over the years, that OLY has become very good at "Milking the Market" !! (Starting with the E-1, I am now on my 6th OLY DSLR. YES, I was a "techno-nut". But, I am no longer as a result of being forced into a #@!Z! "socialist" existence !!)

If OLY is able to get low noise performance, at increased ISO . . . say 2000+, we might see an "E-5". In either case, M4/3 will be their "bread and butter" line, IF they can market a MUCH better AF system. The PEN series may just be a life saver for OLY.

For OLY to remain a force in the digital market, they NEED to VASTLY improve their Product Marketing. They also NEED to find more stores that will sell their products . . . so the fringe buyers can see and feel their products. (More P.M.)

There will be no more high level 4/3 lenses. This market is too limited.

And . . . a partridge in a pear tree . . . .

Paul

(There's more, but, it's waaay past my bedtime . . . )

http://www.pbase.com/spdavis/a_few_nifty_galleries

As a 43rds and micro43rds user - I have a E30 with a good range of lenses and I've just got the an EPL1 with Vf2 and the standard lens.

Based on my flimsy knowledge of these two 'systems' my view on the future direction (FWIW) is that we will see convergance between these two.

I can see the entry level and even mid-range being dominated by micro43rds but the top-end still staying with the DSLR concept for now. I think the tipping point here will be - can they deliver the same quality (IQ, operational speed, etc) with a mirrorless CD type camera - the answer to that will be eventually yes but not in the near to medium term.

The real battle ground will occur in the mid-range cameras where the transition will come between 43rds and micro 43rds is interesting. You need a middle range camera that will allow both sets on lenses to be used interchangeably and seamlessly. Who knows, two 'versions' of the same mirrorless EVF enabled body - one with the micro43rds bayonet and one with 43rds. We're not far from that now with the adapter and the Pens.

All cameras will share the same technology and innovations - I always think about the VW Golf platform and how it's spawned so many varieties of car - I think he same can be done here.

Alan Scott

I agree mostly, however there are a few twists and fine points that Marty and I have been making, which fell on deaf ears.

• the µ4/3 success is based on the concept of 'good enough' for its size. Or if you prefer IQ/size
• Absolute optical excellency has, at least for now, not an important role for the new entrants, who have accepted that optical correction is replaced by firmware correction to save on size.
• in 2009 with 20% decline in sales Oly was probably producing at a loss, even with the successful 620.

That might have determined the stop of any further 4/3 body, and especially lenses.
So what we are looking at is an Exit strategy, dictated by a further point.

• in 2009-2010 C&N are losing together almost 10% of market share, while Micro has earned from nothing 33% in Japan.

If you go to the other forum you will see that people are dropping out of C&N in the most amazing way. Not everybody is selling out, however the trend to go totally mirroless is there, despite the excellency of the systems they are abandoning.

So the IQ/size ratio is really the explanation. With a good such ratio O&P can now compete successfully against C&N.

The former are probably entrenching the new system among consumers, before taking the jump to a pro camera and pro lenses.

To see when this is will happen is difficult, because the jump to pro might not even be necessary, at least to recover from previous losses. I personally think that sales projections among the China and India middle classes might be a consideration due to the huge size of those markets. Will they buy dSLR or bridges, such as Micro?

A camera easy to access like the PL1 or the G2, and their successor might be a good answer. Mirror or not was never a concern for P&S entrants, only IQ improvement, while keeping size small, and the body familiar enough.

Am.
--
Photostream: http://www.flickr.com/photos/amalric

1. there will be an E-5, maybe this fall
2. it may be a bit of a surprise

3.the rest of the 4/3 line may be "consolidated" (sensible if you ask me, after the E-620...great camera at a great price...)

4. the 4/3 lens map is just about completely written. further work on it will wait for the m43 map to flesh out more

5. there will be some kind of "merge" of tech between the 4/3 line and the m43 line(also sensible if you ask me...).

6. we will see more m43 cameras----and the next one may be "high-spec'd"(the one i'm waiting for, i hope), also possibly this fall

7. we will see more m43 lenses, because that map is just starting to get written.

the only question i have, really, is when will they start producing faster m43 lenses?

Just a dumb question, BUT why all of the speculation, rumors and the like?

We will find out soon enough in September what Oly has in store.
--
Jeff Goldstein

People need to know yesterday, not two months from now... The world might end if the next camera has the wrong specs, so they need time to prepare.
--
Art P
Select images may be seen here:
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i think if there was some inf about the next SLR most people would read it before the actual release, seems to me to be a natural thing to do

most of these type of threads are for fun, for some reason i never understood some people have a problem with that

--
Riley

any similarity to persons living or dead is coincidental and unintended

Jeff_Goldstein said:

Just a dumb question, BUT why all of the speculation, rumors and the like?

We will find out soon enough in September what Oly has in store.

Click to expand...

Maybe on Sep 15 the world disappears because a black hole was generated in CERN ( which of cause was kept as secret as the E-5 ) so the enjoyment of the oly cam announcement does not last long enough. So we want to know it earlier

because olympus hasn't announced or released a single product in support of 4/3rds in quite some time. Some of us, like myself would be interested to know whether or not they are going to continue to produce cameras that support their current lenses. I would especially like to know before i drop 5.5k on a 300f2.8 or if i should just switch brands, which I don't want to do.
--
http://www.wryphotography.com

My Flickr
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billyy said:

because olympus hasn't announced or released a single product in support of 4/3rds in quite some time. Some of us, like myself would be interested to know whether or not they are going to continue to produce cameras that support their current lenses. I would especially like to know before i drop 5.5k on a 300f2.8 or if i should just switch brands, which I don't want to do.
--

Click to expand...

I agree totaly. I am looking to expand my lens lineup, but before I do I need to know that Olympus is staying with the 4/3 concept. If not, then Canon may be the way to go.

John
--
Who is that in the hyperfocal distance?

Raist3d said:

the trend so far pointed by many places is the E-5 is happening.

--
Raist3d (Photographer & Tools/Systems/Gui Games Developer)
Andreas Feininger (1906-1999) 'Photographers — idiots, of which there are
so many — say, “Oh, if only I had a Nikon or a Leica, I could make great
photographs.” That’s the dumbest thing I ever heard in my life. It’s
nothing but a matter of seeing, and thinking, and interest. That’s what
makes a good photograph.'

Click to expand...

It seems the only real trend is for people to piece together rumors and unofficial statements to come up with some (often hairbrained) conclusions regarding the future of Olympus cameras.

Most of these guesstimates seem based on the idea of adapting technology favored by an ever decreasing number of owners, rather than truly learning about the technological improvements that are actually being incorporated into the cameras.

I read an article from about 4 years ago that said that the 4/3 sensor had no pro applications because it would "never" be able to match the resolution of aps-c sensors. Yet plenty of pros are using 4/3 and m4/3 regularly.

--

Some people operate cameras. Others use them to create images. There is a difference.

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CharlesB58 said:

Raist3d said:

the trend so far pointed by many places is the E-5 is happening.

--
Raist3d (Photographer & Tools/Systems/Gui Games Developer)
Andreas Feininger (1906-1999) 'Photographers — idiots, of which there are
so many — say, “Oh, if only I had a Nikon or a Leica, I could make great
photographs.” That’s the dumbest thing I ever heard in my life. It’s
nothing but a matter of seeing, and thinking, and interest. That’s what
makes a good photograph.'

Click to expand...

It seems the only real trend is for people to piece together rumors and unofficial statements to come up with some (often hairbrained) conclusions regarding the future of Olympus cameras.

Click to expand...

it might seem that way, but there is bound to be a proportion of information out there thats on the money. Without any other clues its for the individual to put together what he/she figures is really going on

bottom line
although the scattergun approach is the norm here,

there are some things that are going to be right, in a fashion if you talk things out you have a better probability of figuring out where its going

some find that entertaining, i know i do, i dont see whats wrong with that

CharlesB58 said:

Most of these guesstimates seem based on the idea of adapting technology favored by an ever decreasing number of owners, rather than truly learning about the technological improvements that are actually being incorporated into the cameras.

Click to expand...

some of these discussions actually make it too Olympus, i know the Trine stuff did as they specifically refuted that was the way forward for them. I challenge anyone to deny that wasnt a good discussion, and it did come with an amount of evidence in the form of patents

CharlesB58 said:

I read an article from about 4 years ago that said that the 4/3 sensor had no pro applications because it would "never" be able to match the resolution of aps-c sensors. Yet plenty of pros are using 4/3 and m4/3 regularly.

Click to expand...

i dont know how you can say 'plenty'

--
Riley

any similarity to persons living or dead is coincidental and unintended

minliang said:

going thru all forum posts and rumors, just want to give my guestimate of the next 4/3 cam or trend:

1) No more 4/3 cam, not even long awaited e-5

Click to expand...

The best thing about being 71 years old?
Not shiving a git about the "next" DSLR from CANON or Olympus.

I own 4 Canon 1-body cameras: 2 DSLRs ( 1D & 1Ds ), 1 EOS1n, 1 EOS 1n (HS) and 3 Olympus DSLRs with grips: E3, E30 & E510.

The likelyhood of my wanting or needing the "latest technology" in cameras is rather...moot; for me.

I wish you could see the wide as Grand Canyon grin on my face as the "techlogy" I wonder about is the tech-no caliber of heart machines out there for us geriatrics.

Rriley said:

i dont know how you can say 'plenty'

Click to expand...

Wrotniak for one...and that's "plenty" enough for me

youre easily pleased

--
Riley

any similarity to persons living or dead is coincidental and unintended