http://www.bythom.com/
Exactly the way I see it as well
Exactly the way I see it as well
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Interesting article about mirrorless cameras and the future
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Aleo Veuliah
Forum Pro
Thanks for posting
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication
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Barry Fitzgerald
Guest
Thom does some good articles and this was too.
On the other hand I find his nice chart a bit simplistic. I'd seriously doubt we'll ever see mirror less models overtaking compacts. By their very nature the compact has always been the mass market volume product.
So I'd have to say that is doubtful.
The DSLR market is more than holding it's own, esp USA wise the rebels far outsell any mirrorless model. I'd doubt a serious decline is on the cards.
I'd also urge some caution with the Japan figures. Whilst they are very good for micro 4/3 models..is this reflected as strongly on a global scale? I'd have to say that it's unlikely to be the case.
And where did cell phones come from? By their very nature they can never really be serious options for most. They keep getting better..but you'll always have a limitation purely by design. They might do for some..but most prefer a "real camera"
Still a good read..albeit a slightly dubious one ;-) (note the lack of time scale!)
It also forgets the golden rule..not every product will replace another..and difference ones meet different needs (hence the reason we have DSLR's and compacts and ILC's)
On the other hand I find his nice chart a bit simplistic. I'd seriously doubt we'll ever see mirror less models overtaking compacts. By their very nature the compact has always been the mass market volume product.
So I'd have to say that is doubtful.
The DSLR market is more than holding it's own, esp USA wise the rebels far outsell any mirrorless model. I'd doubt a serious decline is on the cards.
I'd also urge some caution with the Japan figures. Whilst they are very good for micro 4/3 models..is this reflected as strongly on a global scale? I'd have to say that it's unlikely to be the case.
And where did cell phones come from? By their very nature they can never really be serious options for most. They keep getting better..but you'll always have a limitation purely by design. They might do for some..but most prefer a "real camera"
Still a good read..albeit a slightly dubious one ;-) (note the lack of time scale!)
It also forgets the golden rule..not every product will replace another..and difference ones meet different needs (hence the reason we have DSLR's and compacts and ILC's)
There are many reasons for this, especially brand recognition and the popular view that SLRs are the only professional tools. IMO once Canon and Nikon start selling Micro systems there will be a major shift in the market. Advances in CDAF technology will make ILCs essentially equal to DSLRs in terms of operation.
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Barry Fitzgerald
Guest
Do you see Canon and Nikon making mirror less models that compete with their DSLR systems? I would be amazed if that were the case.
Terms of operation does not mean much. We are talking about a firmly established set of companies with a big user base. They have plenty to sell to and I don't see them giving that up so easily.
People also forget the "pro" appeal. Big is cool if you want to look like the hot shot pro snapper ;-) Ok we know that's all a load of nonsense..just an example of the buyers mind or some of them.
I'm sure the mirror less models will take a chunk of some DSLR sales..but probably not as much as some suggest. I'd say they are the successor to the "bridge camera" or more a threat to overpriced small sensor compacts than anything else. They will carve out a nice market for themselves..but folks..you're horribly wrong if you're expecting Canikon to roll over and just give in.
Thom's a bit off on this one..esp with his compact sales so low long term. Purely on price there is no way mirror less will outsell compacts even a decade from now.
photoSmart42
Senior Member
I think you're assuming most people are looking for a serious option. For most people, convenience is THE key. The camera with which you take photos is the one you have on you when you see the moment, and the cellphone camera is something most of us have on us all the time. I can't tell you how many times I've had to take photos with my iPhone because I wasn't lugging my 'real' camera around - but honestly those photos came out pretty good.
I do agree with the chart in this article for the most part. I think the mirrorless cameras will squeeze the foxed-lens zoom hybrids, and I do think that cellphones will make a dent into the compact segment. I don't think DSLRs will go away anytime soon - they simply offer too make advantages over mirrorless technology, but I do think the low-end DSLRs will suffer from the new technologies, and there the mirrorless cameras will take over.
IMO the ideal situation for a lot of people out there would be to have a compact-quality lens and sensor built into their cellphone to augment their 'serious' camera, which will either be a mirrorless or a DSLR. I think soon all cameras will have some sort of uplink connectivity built-in to allow users to load photos to networks direct from the camera as opposed to waiting for PP on the PC.
Yes, for one thing it says that camera phone sales were non-existent at the point EVIL was introduced. That's demonstrably not correct.
But I have no problem with the general theme of which categories are growing and shrinking. Not that that is such a hard prediction to make.
I tend to agree. Depends on how usable phonecams can get and how much more a compact can offer. Compacts are squeezed from two directions and mostly from the bottom, I suppose.
Given enough time (three years? eight?), I think there will be more EVILs sold than DSLRs. But DSLRs won't go away.
IIRC, the sales in Europe, at least some parts of it, were also good. US sales were not. Could be related to distribution issues.
I think we should soon have more detailed data on that, since all Japanese camera makers (except Canon) ended their fiscal year 31 March.
I think most people prefer to carry one gadget instead of two.
Most people on this site are different, but not representative.
I hope they counter the lack of sales in some categories by making well-featured cameras. I'm ready with my money if they want my business, but they need to start trying a bit harder.
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Just my two öre,
Erik from Sweden
jhinkey
Senior Member
Well, I think you missed the point of the chart - camera phones useable as a serious photographic tool that the public will use started about the the same time as mirrorless cameras. time=0 is NOT the advent of camera phones.
And compacts appeal to those who do not want to carry lenses around and want the camera to, well, um be as compact as possible.
We may not be talking about an abolute decline, but a percentage decline of all sales could still happen. Thom's charts were in % IIRC.
Well one could believe that the OVF will someday be completely replaced by the EVF - even for the very top end pro models. EVFs will eventually become that good and I think it will be sooner than later.
Yes - I don't use my camera phone, but those that I know who do like it because it is just one device and are willing to put up with the rather poor (but adequate) IQ.
Very much so by the fact that they subscribe to this site where the majority of camera users would not. I suspect that the DPREVIEW folks here represent the minority high end sales bracket.
I'm hoping they try a bit harder as well - especially Nikon.
John
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PeaceKeeper
Forum Enthusiast
Quotation FAIL. 
PeaceKeeper
Forum Enthusiast
I think you are completely mis-judging what "most" of the compact market is.
As someone who worked in a large retail store(think: blue polo shirts) for three years, I can tell you for a fact that easily 75% of the compact camera market were people not concerned with photography at all. They were young kids, college kids, high school kids, looking for a camera to snap pictures of their friends doing retarded things, and then posting them on the internet.
These people are not going to buy cameras if their cell phone can do the same thing.
And again... before you say "they will never do the same thing", think about the usage. These are NOT "photographers" looking for a compact/portable option to their DSLR. Those people are a VERY small part of the overall compact market. As much as we like to think we have a greater impact, we don't.
And he's right, the compact market is going to shrink by leaps and bounds as all those kids realize their phone's work just as well for them, and as the DSLR crowd realizes the advantages of M4/3 over compacts as a portable alternative.
Bernard Carns
Senior Member
some truth and some vital things incorrect or missing.
There is no time line on his graph.
If you take a few facts into consideration.....
I'm in several photo clubs that have thousands of members.
Out of the thousands of members I only know two people who have m4/3 camera.
I have one and some I know claims to have one, although I've never seen it. He is a reputable guy so I don't doubt he has one.
On all the shoots I have been on with all these people I have NEVER seen a 4/3 camera system. Let alone a m43.
I shoot all over southern CA and have yet to see any m43 people doing any serious work.
I have never seen another GH1 in any of my activity.
If you look at the number of posts in the Canon and Nikon forums the number of posts is orders of magnitude more than in this form.
So the timeline in Mr. Thoms graph is the missing link.
I don't see it happening any time soon.
For now the mirrorless stuff is still botique.
BC
There is no time line on his graph.
If you take a few facts into consideration.....
I'm in several photo clubs that have thousands of members.
Out of the thousands of members I only know two people who have m4/3 camera.
I have one and some I know claims to have one, although I've never seen it. He is a reputable guy so I don't doubt he has one.
On all the shoots I have been on with all these people I have NEVER seen a 4/3 camera system. Let alone a m43.
I shoot all over southern CA and have yet to see any m43 people doing any serious work.
I have never seen another GH1 in any of my activity.
If you look at the number of posts in the Canon and Nikon forums the number of posts is orders of magnitude more than in this form.
So the timeline in Mr. Thoms graph is the missing link.
I don't see it happening any time soon.
For now the mirrorless stuff is still botique.
BC
Jogger
Veteran Member
I like taking photos with my FF SLR; although i have my cellphone camera with me 100% of the time. Sort of like having a Honda Civic and a Ferrari. When i want to take photos i use the SLR, otherwise its the cellphone.
pablolie
Leading Member
Cellphone cameras are a long way from digital cameras. I think this shows confusion about where usable photography starts. Honestly I don't know anyone who will not try to use at least a compact when the going is supposed to get memorable...
As to the artificial DSLR vs mirrorless battle, I think it a totally artificial separation mid-term. EVF and mirrors provide exactly the same functionality, so they will naturally converge. Eventually. I foresee a future where EVFs can compensate with IR when the lighting gets low and what not, and by far eclipse the traditional way... but not yet! Anyhow I think they will smoothly converge into the same market...
As to the artificial DSLR vs mirrorless battle, I think it a totally artificial separation mid-term. EVF and mirrors provide exactly the same functionality, so they will naturally converge. Eventually. I foresee a future where EVFs can compensate with IR when the lighting gets low and what not, and by far eclipse the traditional way... but not yet! Anyhow I think they will smoothly converge into the same market...
Nikon and Canon are keeping the DSLR alive through brand consciousness alone. When progress leaves these DSLRs behind, Nikon and Canon will have to decide whether to join the progress or become irrelevant.
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PeaceKeeper
Forum Enthusiast
Nikon and Canon have yet to release/endorse, or otherwise even make note of the existance of m43. That is why it's a relative unknown. Most photographers I talk to are in one camp or the other(nikon or canon) and don't care to look at anything but news from those companies.
It's just as he said. People are focused on bigger/better/faster/newer. But I'll add that tthey only about that in their own chosen format and brand. The assumption he is making is that people are going to shift from that mindset to one based on convenience as the technology reaches a platau.
I think that once nikon and canon make an m43 that little chart he made is going to start panning out just as it shows. Not until then will most serious photographers take the standard into consideration.
The shift from compacts to cells is already taking place though, IMO.
It's just as he said. People are focused on bigger/better/faster/newer. But I'll add that tthey only about that in their own chosen format and brand. The assumption he is making is that people are going to shift from that mindset to one based on convenience as the technology reaches a platau.
I think that once nikon and canon make an m43 that little chart he made is going to start panning out just as it shows. Not until then will most serious photographers take the standard into consideration.
The shift from compacts to cells is already taking place though, IMO.
PC Wheeler
Forum Pro
I think too much is being read into the article, especially the graphic. It's a think piece, and an interesting one. I didn't see any scales on the chart (e.g., number sold or dollar volume) so it's just for fun.
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Phil .. Canon EOS 7D, 40D, S90; Panasonic GH1, ZS3/TZ7
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Barry Fitzgerald
Guest
YVMV..
Exactly and that is why the compact market will "always" be the largest. The entire concept of larger sensors is lost on most buyers..thus DSLR's and mirror less models will sell less than mass market compacts.
Disagree. Most people buy a camera "in addition" to a mobile or "cell" phone. Not that many use a phone as their only camera.
The compact market has been on a decline mostly because of the lagging "upgrade" factor. Same reason pc's get replaced less often now..good enough is good enough. Some update..some replace broken cameras. But the party is over..and it shows.
It was never sustainable either.
If I were Canon I'd be looking at a "G" type ILC as the way forward. Nikon are said to be working on a smaller than 4/3 sensor. Neither will impact their DSLR business in a serious way..but the ILC market is going to get crowded real soon. Micro 4/3 is going to have a lot of competition. I'd say the big loser in all of this is the "enthusiast" or premium compact with a high price and a small sensor.
There the buyers really do know what they are looking for.
One order of magnitude is a factor ten. "Orders of magnitude" would be at least a factor 100, which it isn't in this case. Considering that the Canikon fora are almost ten times older, no surprise more posts have accumulated.
A better indicator is the frequency of recent posts. One such indicator is the age of the most recent post on the first page of the forum. When I did that just now, I found:
MFT 10h
550D 17h
7D 11h
5D 17h
C Lens 12h
The inverse of the sum of inverses gives the total.
Canon total 3.4h 3x busier
D90 15h
D300 22h
D3 14h
N Lens 15h
Nikon total 4.0h 2.5x busier
So not only was the MFT forum the busiest at this snapshot in time, even adding together four Canon or Nikon fora, they were only busier by a factor 2.5x-3x, not near even one order of magnitude.
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Just my two öre,
Erik from Sweden
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