Will APS-C survive as a format?

So you're telling me that Canon and Nikon are just going to let Panasonic and Olympus walk away with this market?

So you're telling me that Canon and Nikon do not want to invest any money into a product line that has the potential to return that money many times over?

So you're telling me that a company such as Canon, who dumped their entire FD-mount SLR product line and started from scratch with their EF-mount EOS series SLR product line (at a time when they were a far smaller company with far more limited resources than they have now) would not have any interest in investing a single nickel to pursue the "micro" market?

In fact, Canon is a company that has proven that they certainly will invest considerable amounts of money and resources to pursue avenues that have good earning potential. Canon's EOS system is just one example. Canon's pursuit of 35mm FF sensors (at a time when everyone else had settled on APS sensors) is another example. Canon was (and supposedly still is) pooring considerable resources into developing SED TV's, too. Canon is a company with large R&D resources, and they use those R&D resources for that they were intended for: researching and developing new products!!! Imagine that!

So you're telling me that Canon and Nikon, who have both invested considerable resources in FF DSLRs which account for a significantly smaller market share than what the "micro" market could offer would not also be interested in investing considerable resourcse in "micro" cameras that have the potential for reaching a much larger market share?

I think you're being extremely naive in thinking that Canon or Nikon wouldn't make the effort to pursue a potential market such as "micro". History has shown that Canon and Nikon are formidable competitors in the photography market. Additionally, all you need is one of them to enter the "micro" market to ensure that both will eventually be competing in that market, because they are so competitive with one another!

papillon_65 said:

papillon_65 said:

I just checked Amazon's US site. As of this moment, not a single 4/3 or m4/3 product on their "Bestsellers in Camera & Photo" list. Sorry.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/502394/ref=pd_ts_pg_1?ie=UTF8&pg=1

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Yes, but even in other places in the world, 4/3 and m4/3 marketshare barely breaks double digits. My point is that 4/3 and m4/3 fans have an over-inflated notion that 4/3 and m4/3 are doing so well in the market, to the point that some are even saying that APS is being "squeezed" by 4/3 and m4/3. This kind of over-inflated enthusiasm was also seen when Olympus first introduced their 4/3 camera system, with it's unique "sensor-specific, digital-specific" lenses. People thought "Wow, this is going to dominate the DSLR world!!!" Well, what happened is that Canon, Nikon, and all the other brands simply made sensor-specific and digital-specific lenses of their own, thus relegating 4/3 to a minor position in the market. Likewise, that's going to happen with m4/3 as well. Right now, in some parts of the world, m4/3 might be doing reasonably well. But keep in mind: it currently has zero competition in that segment of the market. Competitors like Canon and Nikon will, indeed, react to changes in the market, just as they always have. And also keep in mind that many of those m4/3 buyers still use APS or FF DSLRs, and are simply buying it as an adjunct to their existing DSLR equipment, so for these users they haven't really left the APS or FF DSLR world.

Ultimately, I think the take-home messages is to temper your enthusiasm. The game hasn't really begun yet because all the players aren't even on the playing field yet. Check back in a few years and tell me how dominant m4/3 is. Will it still be around? Certainly! But there will be others in that segment, too, just as there are other compact DSLRs with compact sensor-specific lenses in the DSLR market competing against Oly's 4/3 DSLRs with their compact sensor-specific lenses. Just as there are other FF DSLRs in the market competing against Canon, which for a long time was the only one offering FF DSLRs. There's a lot of "me-too"-ism in the market. And that will happen with the "micro" segment as well.

T3 said:

So you're telling me that Canon and Nikon are just going to let Panasonic and Olympus walk away with this market?

So you're telling me that Canon and Nikon do not want to invest any money into a product line that has the potential to return that money many times over?

So you're telling me that a company such as Canon, who dumped their entire FD-mount SLR product line and started from scratch with their EF-mount EOS series SLR product line (at a time when they were a far smaller company with far more limited resources than they have now) would not have any interest in investing a single nickel to pursue the "micro" market?

In fact, Canon is a company that has proven that they certainly will invest considerable amounts of money and resources to pursue avenues that have good earning potential. Canon's EOS system is just one example. Canon's pursuit of 35mm FF sensors (at a time when everyone else had settled on APS sensors) is another example. Canon was (and supposedly still is) pooring considerable resources into developing SED TV's, too. Canon is a company with large R&D resources, and they use those R&D resources for that they were intended for: researching and developing new products!!! Imagine that!

So you're telling me that Canon and Nikon, who have both invested considerable resources in FF DSLRs which account for a significantly smaller market share than what the "micro" market could offer would not also be interested in investing considerable resourcse in "micro" cameras that have the potential for reaching a much larger market share?

I think you're being extremely naive in thinking that Canon or Nikon wouldn't make the effort to pursue a potential market such as "micro". History has shown that Canon and Nikon are formidable competitors in the photography market. Additionally, all you need is one of them to enter the "micro" market to ensure that both will eventually be competing in that market, because they are so competitive with one another!

Click to expand...

If you take the trouble to re-read my posts I have not "told" you any of that. What I'm telling you is they haven't shown any interest in doing so yet, and, if and when they do, it will be a question of how much and how long.

Olympus and Panasonic, who also work together (Panasonic supply Olympus with their sensors) are well ahead of the game. The investment and R&D has largely been done and dusted. Canon and Nikon will have to start from scratch.

Undoubtedly Canon and Nikon have a lot of resources but it may have escaped you that now is not a good time to try to spend big. Without doubt, all large corporations are going through a restructuring and cost reduction programme across the world. As you yourself have pointed out, Canon are currently supporting many product lines. They are not a bottomless pit, neither are Nikon.

The investment in a competing line with micro 4/3's will be considerable, in both time and money. It may be, that by the time they get their act together, both companies may have missed the boat. Panasonic are on 3rd generation micro 4/3's and Olympus 2nd generation. With each new model they are improving and increasing their market share.

Now I don't really care if Canikon do or don't produce a competitor, if they do it means more choice for everyone so nobody loses. What I am saying is that they need to pull their fingers out soon before it's too late.

The sad thing is that Canon and Nikon have rested on their laurels for so long. This is mainly due to the market share you are so proud of. They have become lazy and complacent and the "little guys" have shown them how it's done (as is usually the way).

You should be grateful to the 4/3's consortium because a lot of improvements to your camera's wouldn't have happened if it hadn't been for them.

I remember all the scoffing at liveview, but guess what, most camera's have it now.

The same for in-camera sensor cleaning. There are other examples so I would be careful of what you wish for, because Canon and Nikon dominating the market is only good for the shareholders of both companies, not the consumer.
--
Tony
http://the-random-photographer.blogspot.com/

T3 said:

papillon_65 said:

T3 said:

I just checked Amazon's US site. As of this moment, not a single 4/3 or m4/3 product on their "Bestsellers in Camera & Photo" list. Sorry.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/502394/ref=pd_ts_pg_1?ie=UTF8&pg=1

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Yes, but even in other places in the world, 4/3 and m4/3 marketshare barely breaks double digits. My point is that 4/3 and m4/3 fans have an over-inflated notion that 4/3 and m4/3 are doing so well in the market, to the point that some are even saying that APS is being "squeezed" by 4/3 and m4/3. This kind of over-inflated enthusiasm was also seen when Olympus first introduced their camera system, with it's unique "sensor-specific, digital-specific" lenses. People thought "Wow, this is going to dominate the DSLR world!!!" Well, what happened is that Canon, Nikon, and all the other brands simply made sensor-specific and digital-specific lenses of their own, thus relegating 4/3 to a minor position in the market. Likewise, that's going to happen with m4/3 as well. Right now, in some parts of the world, m4/3 might be doing reasonably well. But keep in mind: it currently has zero competition in that segment of the market. Competitors like Canon and Nikon will, indeed, react to changes in the market, just as they always have. And also keep in mind that many of those m4/3 buyers still use APS or FF DSLRs, and are simply buying it as an adjunct to their existing DSLR equipment, so for these users they haven't really left the APS or FF DSLR world.

Ultimately, I think the take-home messages is to temper your enthusiasm. The game hasn't really begun yet because all the players aren't even on the playing field yet. Check back in a few years and tell me how dominant m4/3 is. Will it still be around? Certainly! But there will be others in that segment, too, just as there are other compact DSLRs with compact sensor-specific lenses in the DSLR market competing against Oly's 4/3 DSLRs with their compact sensor-specific lenses. Just as there are other FF DSLRs in the market competing against Canon, which for a long time was the only one offering FF DSLRs. There's a lot of "me-too"-ism in the market. And that will happen with the "micro" segment as well.

Click to expand...

I don't have enthusiasm for the market, just realism. The current facts speak for themselves. I could care less what happens to any major corporation, Canon, Nikon, Olympus, any of them. I'm just a guy who buys and uses what he needs. If it wasn't Olympus it would be someone else. I don't even own an EVIL camera. I will undoubtedly buy one in the future and it will definitely be either Oly or Panny (because my lenses already work on them).

Good luck to whoever comes out on top, my point is that both Canon, Nikon (and Sony for that matter) are leaving it awfully late to get involved.
I'll buy what suits me best, whoever makes it.

--
Tony
http://the-random-photographer.blogspot.com/

T3 said:

papillon_65 said:

T3 said:

I just checked Amazon's US site. As of this moment, not a single 4/3 or m4/3 product on their "Bestsellers in Camera & Photo" list. Sorry.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/502394/ref=pd_ts_pg_1?ie=UTF8&pg=1

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Yes, but even in other places in the world, 4/3 and m4/3 marketshare barely breaks double digits. My point is that 4/3 and m4/3 fans have an over-inflated notion that...

Click to expand...

the point is you dont have a point
you appear anytime 4 and 3 appear in the same sentence
you mumble sh!t without checking
or you fake your way out of it when even that isnt believable

your statement was a blatant lie i have given you the opportunity to refute, and a serious misunderstanding that at least one of your opponents wouldnt check your continual BS

--
ʎǝlıɹ

plɹoʍ ǝɥʇ ɟo doʇ uo ǝɹɐ ǝʍ 'ɐılɐɹʇsnɐ uı

papillon_65 said:

If you take the trouble to re-read my posts I have not "told" you any of that. What I'm telling you is they haven't shown any interest in doing so yet, and, if and when they do, it will be a question of how much and how long.

Click to expand...

Yeah, that's what people said about Nikon and FF...until they introduced a FF camera and all the doubters looked quite foolish. Yeah, that's what they said about Canon and pro-level APS DSLR...until Canon introduced the 7D and all the doubters looked quite foolish. It's funny how doubters say that these companies "haven't shown any interest"...only to have Canon and Nikon introduce products that blow that notion out of the water. You see, the thing about product development, particularly with companies like Canon and Nikon, is that they like to keep things secret until they are ready to announce their products. So until then, doubters always say foolish things like "What I'm telling you is they haven't shown any interest in doing so yet."

papillon_65 said:

Olympus and Panasonic, who also work together (Panasonic supply Olympus with their sensors) are well ahead of the game. The investment and R&D has largely been done and dusted. Canon and Nikon will have to start from scratch.

Click to expand...

Yeah, and Canon or Nikon haven't started from scratch with certain products before?!? Look at their history, for crying out loud! Canon and the EOS system ring any bells?

papillon_65 said:

Undoubtedly Canon and Nikon have a lot of resources but it may have escaped you that now is not a good time to try to spend big. Without doubt, all large corporations are going through a restructuring and cost reduction programme across the world. As you yourself have pointed out, Canon are currently supporting many product lines. They are not a bottomless pit, neither are Nikon.

Click to expand...

Yeah, but you're forgetting that the reason why they have R&D departments is so that these R&D departments can R&D new products. And the reason why they R&D new products is so they can eventually sell new products, and thus make money off of these sales. You have to spend money to make money.

papillon_65 said:

The investment in a competing line with micro 4/3's will be considerable, in both time and money. It may be, that by the time they get their act together, both companies may have missed the boat. Panasonic are on 3rd generation micro 4/3's and Olympus 2nd generation. With each new model they are improving and increasing their market share.

Click to expand...

If m4/3 were at 40 or 50% of the market, you might have an argument. But they are clearly nowhere near that mark.

papillon_65 said:

Now I don't really care if Canikon do or don't produce a competitor, if they do it means more choice for everyone so nobody loses. What I am saying is that they need to pull their fingers out soon before it's too late.

Click to expand...

It's far from too late.

papillon_65 said:

The sad thing is that Canon and Nikon have rested on their laurels for so long. This is mainly due to the market share you are so proud of. They have become lazy and complacent and the "little guys" have shown them how it's done (as is usually the way).

Click to expand...

Sure, lazy and complacent. Even though they introduce multiple new products, cameras, and DSLRs every year, successfully maintaining their top positions in the photo marketplace.

papillon_65 said:

You should be grateful to the 4/3's consortium because a lot of improvements to your camera's wouldn't have happened if it hadn't been for them.

I remember all the scoffing at liveview, but guess what, most camera's have it now.

Click to expand...

Sure, we're grateful. Canon and Nikon are probably grateful too. Just like the Japanese are grateful to Americans for starting the automobile market that the Japanese eventually overtook.

papillon_65 said:

The same for in-camera sensor cleaning. There are other examples so I would be careful of what you wish for, because Canon and Nikon dominating the market is only good for the shareholders of both companies, not the consumer.

Click to expand...

I think this is a perfect example of how the market works. If someone thinks of a good idea, others will copy it. Remember when Olympus started selling compact 4/3 DSLRs with sensor-specific lenses? Now, those cameras sit alongside similar compact APS DSLRs with their own sensor-specific lenses. In the market, no one really cares if you were the first to do anything. That's just a footnote in history.

Rriley said:

T3 said:

papillon_65 said:

Rriley said:

I just checked Amazon's US site. As of this moment, not a single 4/3 or m4/3 product on their "Bestsellers in Camera & Photo" list. Sorry.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/502394/ref=pd_ts_pg_1?ie=UTF8&pg=1

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Yes, but even in other places in the world, 4/3 and m4/3 marketshare barely breaks double digits. My point is that 4/3 and m4/3 fans have an over-inflated notion that...

Click to expand...

the point is you dont have a point
you appear anytime 4 and 3 appear in the same sentence
you mumble sh!t without checking
or you fake your way out of it when even that isnt believable

your statement was a blatant lie i have given you the opportunity to refute, and a serious misunderstanding that at least one of your opponents wouldnt check your continual BS

Click to expand...

I suggest you check Amazon right now. It wasn't a "blatant lie". No 4/3 products on that list as of this writing. And even if there were any, it's just one or two cams against a crowd of APS cams.

papillon_65 said:

I don't have enthusiasm for the market, just realism. The current facts speak for themselves. I could care less what happens to any major corporation, Canon, Nikon, Olympus, any of them. I'm just a guy who buys and uses what he needs. If it wasn't Olympus it would be someone else. I don't even own an EVIL camera. I will undoubtedly buy one in the future and it will definitely be either Oly or Panny (because my lenses already work on them).

Good luck to whoever comes out on top, my point is that both Canon, Nikon (and Sony for that matter) are leaving it awfully late to get involved.
I'll buy what suits me best, whoever makes it.

Click to expand...

I don't think Canon or Nikon need "luck". They have a very deep and extensive user base, they have deep and extensive R&D departments, they have deep and extensive marketing know-how, and they are looking at m4/3 products that have barely even scratched the consumer consciousness. m4/3's "lead" is tenuous at best.

Also, as you say yourself "I'm just a guy who buys and uses what he needs. If it wasn't Olympus it would be someone else." Canon and Nikon are likely observing that "micro" is something that many people feel they "need" now (just as Nikon looked at Canon's FF DSLRs and observed that FF DSLR was something that many people felt they needed), and they know that many people are probably buying the Pany or Oly products simply out of default (just as many people were buying Canon FF DSLRs simply out of default). So what's the solution? Become the default with a similar product. They've done it in the past, and they'll do it again.

T3 said:

Rriley said:

T3 said:

papillon_65 said:

T3 said:

I just checked Amazon's US site. As of this moment, not a single 4/3 or m4/3 product on their "Bestsellers in Camera & Photo" list. Sorry.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/502394/ref=pd_ts_pg_1?ie=UTF8&pg=1

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Yes, but even in other places in the world, 4/3 and m4/3 marketshare barely breaks double digits. My point is that 4/3 and m4/3 fans have an over-inflated notion that...

Click to expand...

the point is you dont have a point
you appear anytime 4 and 3 appear in the same sentence
you mumble sh!t without checking
or you fake your way out of it when even that isnt believable

your statement was a blatant lie i have given you the opportunity to refute, and a serious misunderstanding that at least one of your opponents wouldnt check your continual BS

Click to expand...

I suggest you check Amazon right now. It wasn't a "blatant lie". No 4/3 products on that list as of this writing. And even if there were any, it's just one or two cams against a crowd of APS cams.

Click to expand...

no problemo, fake it anyway you can
here it is again updated,

T3 said:

Amazon.com has

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/3017941/ref=pd_ts_pg_1?ie=UTF8&pg=1

Click to expand...

Pen listed at 40, 47, 53, 88
GF1 listed at 14, 27
G1 listed at 78, 100
GH1 26

and added
E520 33
E620 46, 76, 92
E30 99

so no 4/3rds or mFT cameras eh, which became maybe 1 or 2

well well well, maybe you should have really checked instead of attempting to bluff everyone with a lie

like I said, 11.5% of the market growing 10% pa
where did it come from
it could have been sales growth, but that seems unlikely (recession)

it could have been from 4/3rds, except there isnt enough share in that for this total,

however, one should note that Nikons market has dropped 11% in Japan this yr, and Sony have lost 4.5% over the same period.

--
ʎǝlıɹ

plɹoʍ ǝɥʇ ɟo doʇ uo ǝɹɐ ǝʍ 'ɐılɐɹʇsnɐ uı

T3 said:

papillon_65 said:

If you take the trouble to re-read my posts I have not "told" you any of that. What I'm telling you is they haven't shown any interest in doing so yet, and, if and when they do, it will be a question of how much and how long.

Click to expand...

Yeah, that's what people said about Nikon and FF...until they introduced a FF camera and all the doubters looked quite foolish. Yeah, that's what they said about Canon and pro-level APS DSLR...until Canon introduced the 7D and all the doubters looked quite foolish. It's funny how doubters say that these companies "haven't shown any interest"...only to have Canon and Nikon introduce products that blow that notion out of the water. You see, the thing about product development, particularly with companies like Canon and Nikon, is that they like to keep things secret until they are ready to announce their products. So until then, doubters always say foolish things like "What I'm telling you is they haven't shown any interest in doing so yet."

Click to expand...

Full frame is easy, the lenses already existed, so did the inherent technology, i.e a shutter mechanism and ovf etc. EVIL camera's are a completely new design and require a lot more investment. A full frame camera is just a bigger sensor in a bigger body.

T3 said:

T3 said:

Olympus and Panasonic, who also work together (Panasonic supply Olympus with their sensors) are well ahead of the game. The investment and R&D has largely been done and dusted. Canon and Nikon will have to start from scratch.

Click to expand...

Yeah, and Canon or Nikon haven't started from scratch with certain products before?!? Look at their history, for crying out loud! Canon and the EOS system ring any bells?

Click to expand...

I don't dispute that, but did they do it in 5 minutes?

T3 said:

T3 said:

Undoubtedly Canon and Nikon have a lot of resources but it may have escaped you that now is not a good time to try to spend big. Without doubt, all large corporations are going through a restructuring and cost reduction programme across the world. As you yourself have pointed out, Canon are currently supporting many product lines. They are not a bottomless pit, neither are Nikon.

Click to expand...

Yeah, but you're forgetting that the reason why they have R&D departments is so that these R&D departments can R&D new products. And the reason why they R&D new products is so they can eventually sell new products, and thus make money off of these sales. You have to spend money to make money.

Click to expand...

That's going to be an awfully busy and stretched R&D department that's for sure.
When products are rushed to market they are very rarely great.

T3 said:

T3 said:

The investment in a competing line with micro 4/3's will be considerable, in both time and money. It may be, that by the time they get their act together, both companies may have missed the boat. Panasonic are on 3rd generation micro 4/3's and Olympus 2nd generation. With each new model they are improving and increasing their market share.

Click to expand...

If m4/3 were at 40 or 50% of the market, you might have an argument. But they are clearly nowhere near that mark.

Click to expand...

No, they have 100% of the EVIL market, plus plenty of patents to protect their investment no doubt.

T3 said:

T3 said:

Now I don't really care if Canikon do or don't produce a competitor, if they do it means more choice for everyone so nobody loses. What I am saying is that they need to pull their fingers out soon before it's too late.

Click to expand...

It's far from too late.

Click to expand...

I think the market will be the judge of that, you may be right, you may also be very wrong.

T3 said:

T3 said:

The sad thing is that Canon and Nikon have rested on their laurels for so long. This is mainly due to the market share you are so proud of. They have become lazy and complacent and the "little guys" have shown them how it's done (as is usually the way).

Click to expand...

Sure, lazy and complacent. Even though they introduce multiple new products, cameras, and DSLRs every year, successfully maintaining their top positions in the photo marketplace.

Click to expand...

Not really , just incremental upgrades to what already exists.

T3 said:

T3 said:

You should be grateful to the 4/3's consortium because a lot of improvements to your camera's wouldn't have happened if it hadn't been for them.

I remember all the scoffing at liveview, but guess what, most camera's have it now.

Click to expand...

Sure, we're grateful. Canon and Nikon are probably grateful too. Just like the Japanese are grateful to Americans for starting the automobile market that the Japanese eventually overtook.

T3 said:

The same for in-camera sensor cleaning. There are other examples so I would be careful of what you wish for, because Canon and Nikon dominating the market is only good for the shareholders of both companies, not the consumer.

Click to expand...

I think this is a perfect example of how the market works. If someone thinks of a good idea, others will copy it. Remember when Olympus started selling compact 4/3 DSLRs with sensor-specific lenses? Now, those cameras sit alongside similar compact APS DSLRs with their own sensor-specific lenses. In the market, no one really cares if you were the first to do anything. That's just a footnote in history.

Click to expand...

APS-C DSLR's lenses are based on old designs, that's why they cannot match even the standard grade zuiko's.(like for like) You have to pay a lot of money to match the performance of the high grade zuiko's. The lenses are optimised for the sensor because they were both designed at the same time. You can shoot all the zuiko's wide open. With the lower end Canikon lenses you need to stop down. This is an established fact, the zuiko's are telecentric and are a perfect match for the sensor. This is not the case for Canikon's lenses. Olympus has the only digitally designed line-up, started from scratch. If you think otherwise you are fooling yourself.

Yes Canon and Nikon produce some very good lenses, at a price. That's another argument of course.

--
Tony
http://the-random-photographer.blogspot.com/