There are lies, dammed lies, and there are statistics. We all hate statistics, we all know how data can be presented in a myriad of forms in order to sustain, or discredit, whatever argument as needs dictate. But here in the Dpreview forums there is nothing we like more than disputable numbers; we can talk about them until the cows come home, or maybe don't come home. Whatever. Here goes:
The images posted in Dpreview challenges are annotated with the camera model and lens used to take the shot, it is potentially a great mine of information. Even more so analyzing the winners. And straight away we enter into a point of contention; are we analyzing which equipment is most likely to get a winning shot or are we simply observing what equipment is most likely to be used by the sort of photographer who is most likely to get a winning shot?
But let's not allow such pedantry to dampen out enthusiasm, let's move straight on to the details. Our sample data is taken from the first, second and third placed entries in 32 randomly selected contests, plus the winner of a 33rd contest to round things up to a hundred. Contests that were limited to specific hardware or were orientated around post processing techniques such as HDR were not included.
And the winner is...Canon. Or is it? Well, first let's look at the raw data: 41% of the entries were taken with a Canon camera, 30% Nikon, 14% Olympus and 10% Pentax, whilst Sony/Minolta rolled in with 4%. Oh yes, there was one image taken with a Lumix camera as well.
The trouble with the raw data is that it takes no account of market share. Just suppose that 99% of cameras sold were Canon, if only 60% of winning entries were taken with Canon cameras that would be a pretty poor show.
So in order to dig down into this data we need some figures for market share, which of course depend an awful lot on when and where you do survey, and what cameras you include. As 89% of the entries were taken on DSLR cameras, we could google around for DSLR market share figures from 2007 onwards and do a very rough average: Canon and Nikon about 40% each, Sony 8%, Olympus and Pentax 4% each. Before hitting the reply button to contest such crude data, it is worth bearing in mind that modest variations in those figures do not actually make much difference on the analysis we are about to make.
The thing we see here is that Canon cameras success in the Dpreview challenges is more or less the same as it's market share. A similar, but slightly lower result can be found for Nikon. But the real winner in this context is Olympus; 14% of winning entries achieved with just 4% of market share. Or put another way, an Olympus photographer is nearly 4 times as likely to win a challenge as a Canon photographer. Pentax get's the runner up place; 10% of winning entries from it's own 4% share, or 2.5 times more likely to get a top three place than a Canon.
Sony does not fair so well, but to be fair to them we must remember that they are only just recovering from the dry spell that followed Sony's takeover of Minolta.
Now, let's dig deeper and look at the actual models rather than brands. More than a third of the Canon entries were taken using full frame cameras, specifically the 5D as there was only one entry taken on a 1D. Given that the 5D's sales make it a specialty camera, that is quite a significant proportion. Canon compact cameras account for just 14% of Canon shots, but that is still more than the number of Canon entries taken on the Digital Rebel line of cameras, just a tad below 10% or 4% overall. Given the Digital Rebels huge market share over recent years we might see that as a pretty poor result. The most common type of Canon camera, at 44%, was of course the midrange xxD series (10D to 50D).
Trying to break down the other bands, particularly the lesser ones, we run into problems with lack of data, but the overall trend is similar (except for full frame of course). Also with Nikon the best selling low end models (D40/50/60) are thin on the ground. The most common Olympus camera is the midrange E5xx series. Likewise the Pentax images are dominated by midrange *istD's,K10D and K20D cameras.
Perhaps the most significant thing about the results is that it is difficult to draw any hard conclusions. If we were to try and make any sense of it we would perhaps conclude that you have a reasonable chance of winning with any brand of camera, and perhaps more significantly there is no reason to regard minor brands such as Pentax or Olympus as being inferior, far from it! The relative lackluster performance of the entry level models, despite their enormous sales, could perhaps in part be explained but the large number of people who buy these cameras to use as a fast point and shoot camera, the sort of people who generally do not get involved in photo contests. On the other hand, there is no shortage of entry level DSLR users on Dpreview, so maybe the data is telling us something: if you are serious about your photography then spend that little extra to get a camera in the midrange band.
Now let's spare a thought for the compact cameras which were used for 11% of entries. That's not a high number, but not insignificant either, especially when we remember that more Canon compacts made the winners pedestal than Digital Rebels . What is significant is that they were all low pixel density models without exaggerated zoom lenses; the sort of compact camera that is unfortunately becoming increasingly rare. Maybe this sector will be taken over by the new generation of compact interchangeable lens cameras, but so far it is not happening; there was one entry for such a camera, the Olympus Pen. Of course it is early days yet...
The images posted in Dpreview challenges are annotated with the camera model and lens used to take the shot, it is potentially a great mine of information. Even more so analyzing the winners. And straight away we enter into a point of contention; are we analyzing which equipment is most likely to get a winning shot or are we simply observing what equipment is most likely to be used by the sort of photographer who is most likely to get a winning shot?
But let's not allow such pedantry to dampen out enthusiasm, let's move straight on to the details. Our sample data is taken from the first, second and third placed entries in 32 randomly selected contests, plus the winner of a 33rd contest to round things up to a hundred. Contests that were limited to specific hardware or were orientated around post processing techniques such as HDR were not included.
And the winner is...Canon. Or is it? Well, first let's look at the raw data: 41% of the entries were taken with a Canon camera, 30% Nikon, 14% Olympus and 10% Pentax, whilst Sony/Minolta rolled in with 4%. Oh yes, there was one image taken with a Lumix camera as well.
The trouble with the raw data is that it takes no account of market share. Just suppose that 99% of cameras sold were Canon, if only 60% of winning entries were taken with Canon cameras that would be a pretty poor show.
So in order to dig down into this data we need some figures for market share, which of course depend an awful lot on when and where you do survey, and what cameras you include. As 89% of the entries were taken on DSLR cameras, we could google around for DSLR market share figures from 2007 onwards and do a very rough average: Canon and Nikon about 40% each, Sony 8%, Olympus and Pentax 4% each. Before hitting the reply button to contest such crude data, it is worth bearing in mind that modest variations in those figures do not actually make much difference on the analysis we are about to make.
The thing we see here is that Canon cameras success in the Dpreview challenges is more or less the same as it's market share. A similar, but slightly lower result can be found for Nikon. But the real winner in this context is Olympus; 14% of winning entries achieved with just 4% of market share. Or put another way, an Olympus photographer is nearly 4 times as likely to win a challenge as a Canon photographer. Pentax get's the runner up place; 10% of winning entries from it's own 4% share, or 2.5 times more likely to get a top three place than a Canon.
Sony does not fair so well, but to be fair to them we must remember that they are only just recovering from the dry spell that followed Sony's takeover of Minolta.
Now, let's dig deeper and look at the actual models rather than brands. More than a third of the Canon entries were taken using full frame cameras, specifically the 5D as there was only one entry taken on a 1D. Given that the 5D's sales make it a specialty camera, that is quite a significant proportion. Canon compact cameras account for just 14% of Canon shots, but that is still more than the number of Canon entries taken on the Digital Rebel line of cameras, just a tad below 10% or 4% overall. Given the Digital Rebels huge market share over recent years we might see that as a pretty poor result. The most common type of Canon camera, at 44%, was of course the midrange xxD series (10D to 50D).
Trying to break down the other bands, particularly the lesser ones, we run into problems with lack of data, but the overall trend is similar (except for full frame of course). Also with Nikon the best selling low end models (D40/50/60) are thin on the ground. The most common Olympus camera is the midrange E5xx series. Likewise the Pentax images are dominated by midrange *istD's,K10D and K20D cameras.
Perhaps the most significant thing about the results is that it is difficult to draw any hard conclusions. If we were to try and make any sense of it we would perhaps conclude that you have a reasonable chance of winning with any brand of camera, and perhaps more significantly there is no reason to regard minor brands such as Pentax or Olympus as being inferior, far from it! The relative lackluster performance of the entry level models, despite their enormous sales, could perhaps in part be explained but the large number of people who buy these cameras to use as a fast point and shoot camera, the sort of people who generally do not get involved in photo contests. On the other hand, there is no shortage of entry level DSLR users on Dpreview, so maybe the data is telling us something: if you are serious about your photography then spend that little extra to get a camera in the midrange band.
Now let's spare a thought for the compact cameras which were used for 11% of entries. That's not a high number, but not insignificant either, especially when we remember that more Canon compacts made the winners pedestal than Digital Rebels . What is significant is that they were all low pixel density models without exaggerated zoom lenses; the sort of compact camera that is unfortunately becoming increasingly rare. Maybe this sector will be taken over by the new generation of compact interchangeable lens cameras, but so far it is not happening; there was one entry for such a camera, the Olympus Pen. Of course it is early days yet...