1DS will hurt 1D sales

Greg M · Sep 15, 2002

Before you flame consider this, until the 1DS there has been no Canon DSLR for you to get (if you need better performance than the D30/60) then the 1D. Therefore anyone that needed a better camera had to buy the 1D. Now that there is a choice the sales will be somewhat split between the two choices. I'm not saying that 1D sales will be cut in half but I am saying that 1D sales will be affected.

What will Canon do?

I believe, based on the past, that the 1DS will come out at a lower list price then the current 1D list price. The 1D will also drop in price. Canon knows that there are a lot of 1D sales that are just waiting for the price to drop below $4000. With an expected drop off in 1D sales I'm sure that they will want to cash in on those that will buy at less then $4000 before they replace the 1D.

Pondria · Sep 15, 2002

Answer is the competition.
http://www.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1019&message=3387854

Greg M said:
Before you flame consider this, until the 1DS there has been no
Canon DSLR for you to get (if you need better performance than the
D30/60) then the 1D. Therefore anyone that needed a better camera
had to buy the 1D. Now that there is a choice the sales will be
somewhat split between the two choices. I'm not saying that 1D
sales will be cut in half but I am saying that 1D sales will be
affected.

What will Canon do?

I believe, based on the past, that the 1DS will come out at a lower
list price then the current 1D list price. The 1D will also drop
in price. Canon knows that there are a lot of 1D sales that are
just waiting for the price to drop below $4000. With an expected
drop off in 1D sales I'm sure that they will want to cash in on
those that will buy at less then $4000 before they replace the 1D.

--

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Greg M · Sep 15, 2002

Pondria said:
Greg M said:

Before you flame consider this, until the 1DS there has been no
Canon DSLR for you to get (if you need better performance than the
D30/60) then the 1D. Therefore anyone that needed a better camera
had to buy the 1D. Now that there is a choice the sales will be
somewhat split between the two choices. I'm not saying that 1D
sales will be cut in half but I am saying that 1D sales will be
affected.

What will Canon do?

I believe, based on the past, that the 1DS will come out at a lower
list price then the current 1D list price. The 1D will also drop
in price. Canon knows that there are a lot of 1D sales that are
just waiting for the price to drop below $4000. With an expected
drop off in 1D sales I'm sure that they will want to cash in on
those that will buy at less then $4000 before they replace the 1D.

Click to expand...

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http://www.sesee.com/Photo/Galleries/Galleries.asp

Jim Dawson · Sep 15, 2002

There is a finite market for these cameras. I would think any time another choice is added the total sales will be split between them. Not an equal split of course.

I think the price will be dependent upon production cost differences, not functional differences. I don't see the 1D price dropping because of the introduction of the 1Ds. It will drop as all prices do after it has been in the market for awhile.

Jim

Greg M said:
Before you flame consider this, until the 1DS there has been no
Canon DSLR for you to get (if you need better performance than the
D30/60) then the 1D. Therefore anyone that needed a better camera
had to buy the 1D. Now that there is a choice the sales will be
somewhat split between the two choices. I'm not saying that 1D
sales will be cut in half but I am saying that 1D sales will be
affected.

What will Canon do?

I believe, based on the past, that the 1DS will come out at a lower
list price then the current 1D list price. The 1D will also drop
in price. Canon knows that there are a lot of 1D sales that are
just waiting for the price to drop below $4000. With an expected
drop off in 1D sales I'm sure that they will want to cash in on
those that will buy at less then $4000 before they replace the 1D.

Peter (B) · Sep 15, 2002

Indeed, and maybe trivial, but of course the total sales of 1Ds plus 1D will be far greater then the current sales of 1D. The needs/wants of many more photographers are adressed with this new machine. Hence, the 1D sales might be slightly lower, but total Canon sales will be much higher. And that's the thing Canon is interested in (I assume).

Jim Dawson said:
I think the price will be dependent upon production cost
differences, not functional differences. I don't see the 1D price
dropping because of the introduction of the 1Ds. It will drop as
all prices do after it has been in the market for awhile.

Jim

Greg M said:

Before you flame consider this, until the 1DS there has been no
Canon DSLR for you to get (if you need better performance than the
D30/60) then the 1D. Therefore anyone that needed a better camera
had to buy the 1D. Now that there is a choice the sales will be
somewhat split between the two choices. I'm not saying that 1D
sales will be cut in half but I am saying that 1D sales will be
affected.

What will Canon do?

I believe, based on the past, that the 1DS will come out at a lower
list price then the current 1D list price. The 1D will also drop
in price. Canon knows that there are a lot of 1D sales that are
just waiting for the price to drop below $4000. With an expected
drop off in 1D sales I'm sure that they will want to cash in on
those that will buy at less then $4000 before they replace the 1D.

Click to expand...

--
In the beginning there was nothing, and then even that exploded.

Ben Horne · Sep 15, 2002

I think it would be ridiculous to think that each new model will not only be superior in features, but also cost significantly less. That just can't continue to happen --- otherwise we'll be having $150 16MP cameras in 2005, and canon will actually pay us to use their 32MP DSLR in 2007.

Since canon is the only one (so far) with an 11MP digicam, I think they're going to milk this model for all it's worth until there is any competition. Remember the D30? The only reason it sold for 3k was because there was NO competition. If canon can put out the 1Ds before Nikon or anyone else gives them any competition, it will be a similar situation and the 1Ds will cost quite a bit more than the 1D until some competition comes around. I still say it will go for 6k or more.

Only after some competition arrives could canon bring the price down to the 1D range. Canon is here to make money, not to cater to our every needs.

I don't think digital bodies will go much lower than twice the price of the film counterpart. For example, the 1V + PB-E2 costs close to 2,000. Therefore, I don't think we'll see any new 1D series cameras under the 4k level any time soon. IF they did drop below that range, it will force canon to drop the price of the 1V.... then the 3..... then the elan series, and drop the price all the way down to the cheap-o rebel series. It just doesn't make sense to have a digital body cost nearly the same to the film body counterpart.

Also, I think we'lll keep seeing the prosumer digicams at about the price of the top canon film bodies. Ie.... D60 costs about the same as a 1V + PB-E2. Those could drop a bit more (maybe the price of a 1V alone in a couple years) but I don't see the next generation of the D60 having a significant price change --- they'll have to re-work the camera design and features to warrant the upgrade for nearly the same amount of money.

Take Care,
Ben Horne

http://www.benhorne.com

Greg M said:
Before you flame consider this, until the 1DS there has been no
Canon DSLR for you to get (if you need better performance than the
D30/60) then the 1D. Therefore anyone that needed a better camera
had to buy the 1D. Now that there is a choice the sales will be
somewhat split between the two choices. I'm not saying that 1D
sales will be cut in half but I am saying that 1D sales will be
affected.

What will Canon do?

I believe, based on the past, that the 1DS will come out at a lower
list price then the current 1D list price. The 1D will also drop
in price. Canon knows that there are a lot of 1D sales that are
just waiting for the price to drop below $4000. With an expected
drop off in 1D sales I'm sure that they will want to cash in on
those that will buy at less then $4000 before they replace the 1D.

USMD49 · Sep 15, 2002

no text

Larry H. Smith · Sep 15, 2002

Greg M said:
Before you flame consider this, until the 1DS there has been no
Canon DSLR for you to get (if you need better performance than the
D30/60) then the 1D. Therefore anyone that needed a better camera
had to buy the 1D.

You've forgotten the people (how many?) that don't "need" ANYTHING, but might WANT a camera with different(not better unless you define the performance-area,..speed/resolution, etc.) performance.

I am such a person. canon never-WAS going to sell me a 1D. I was waiting until they(or someone else) came out with a 1Ds 'type", which is better suited to MY desires.

So the 1Ds sales to people like me will be in-ADDITION to their 1D sales, ...not INSTEAD of.

Also remember that some pros will want BOTH (for their different "specialties"), ...so there are some more ADDITIONAL sales.

If the reviews/street-performance reports are favourable,I think Canon has a winner here! (make that TWO winners ;-)

Larry

Now that there is a choice the sales will be

Greg M said:
somewhat split between the two choices. I'm not saying that 1D
sales will be cut in half but I am saying that 1D sales will be
affected.

What will Canon do?

I believe, based on the past, that the 1DS will come out at a lower
list price then the current 1D list price. The 1D will also drop
in price. Canon knows that there are a lot of 1D sales that are
just waiting for the price to drop below $4000. With an expected
drop off in 1D sales I'm sure that they will want to cash in on
those that will buy at less then $4000 before they replace the 1D.

Davidlw · Sep 15, 2002

I think that the 1D sales will still be good for Wedding Photographers. We need speed and reasonable file sizes for the large volume of images that are taken at a Wedding. I for one am hoping that the 1D will drop in cost so that I can pick up a couple of them at a reasonable price. AKA under $4500

Greg M said:
Before you flame consider this, until the 1DS there has been no
Canon DSLR for you to get (if you need better performance than the
D30/60) then the 1D. Therefore anyone that needed a better camera
had to buy the 1D. Now that there is a choice the sales will be
somewhat split between the two choices. I'm not saying that 1D
sales will be cut in half but I am saying that 1D sales will be
affected.

What will Canon do?

I believe, based on the past, that the 1DS will come out at a lower
list price then the current 1D list price. The 1D will also drop
in price. Canon knows that there are a lot of 1D sales that are
just waiting for the price to drop below $4000. With an expected
drop off in 1D sales I'm sure that they will want to cash in on
those that will buy at less then $4000 before they replace the 1D.

Greg M · Sep 15, 2002

Ben Horne said:
I think it would be ridiculous to think that each new model will
not only be superior in features, but also cost significantly less.
That just can't continue to happen --- otherwise we'll be having
$150 16MP cameras in 2005, and canon will actually pay us to use
their 32MP DSLR in 2007.

If you're going to disagree, at least make sense. DSLR bodies are all electronics. All electronic devices follow this trend. True they get to a point where the price levels off and newer models are priced about the same as previous models but are improved. There are still large margins on DSLR bodies that will be squeezed by compitition. The more people that Canon gets to buy into their system the more money they will make over time. They make far more on the lenses they sell per each body they sell then they make on the body itself. I know that I've spent about 3 to 1 on lenses compared to the body.

Ben Horne said:
Since canon is the only one (so far) with an 11MP digicam, I think

They don't have it out yet and who's to say that someone else doesn't have something simular right around the corner.

Ben Horne said:
they're going to milk this model for all it's worth until there is
any competition. Remember the D30? The only reason it sold for

I also remember that the D60 came out at 1/3 less when there was still no compitition.

Ben Horne said:
3k was because there was NO competition. If canon can put out the
1Ds before Nikon or anyone else gives them any competition, it will
be a similar situation and the 1Ds will cost quite a bit more than
the 1D until some competition comes around. I still say it will go
for 6k or more.

That would be a mistake. It makes more sense to try and slam the door on the compitition and that price would leave the door wide open. Canon didn't get to where they are by being short sighted.

Ben Horne said:
Only after some competition arrives could canon bring the price
down to the 1D range. Canon is here to make money, not to cater to
our every needs.

I don't think digital bodies will go much lower than twice the
price of the film counterpart. For example, the 1V + PB-E2 costs
close to 2,000. Therefore, I don't think we'll see any new 1D
series cameras under the 4k level any time soon. IF they did drop
below that range, it will force canon to drop the price of the
1V.... then the 3..... then the elan series, and drop the price
all the way down to the cheap-o rebel series. It just doesn't make
sense to have a digital body cost nearly the same to the film body
counterpart.

It won't be long till the digital body isn't that much more then the film body.

Ben Horne said:
Also, I think we'lll keep seeing the prosumer digicams at about the
price of the top canon film bodies. Ie.... D60 costs about the
same as a 1V + PB-E2. Those could drop a bit more (maybe the price
of a 1V alone in a couple years) but I don't see the next
generation of the D60 having a significant price change ---

Within the next few years you will see a D60 like body for around $1000.

Ben Horne said:
they'll have to re-work the camera design and features to warrant
the upgrade for nearly the same amount of money.

Take Care,
Ben Horne

http://www.benhorne.com

Lee Rothman · Sep 15, 2002

for Canon to debut a camera "above" the current 1D in price, and that the current 1D would drop to $4000 and the new one at $6000. So it is just possible that the new 1Ds will subsequently increase the sales of the current 1D as NOT everyone needs a huge file size as a requirement to their shooting styles, but would welcome a fast autofocus and robust build. I think it's rather clever of them actually, and I personally think that THIS is what will actually result. Heck, I would have done it exactly that way also from a marketing standpoint.....Makes sense to me one digicam a $2000 one at $4000 and one at $6000.......PERFECT....

John Mason · Sep 15, 2002

I agree totally with Lee.

What will be interesting is if there is pressure from the competition.

Consider this hypothetical that we are 2 weeks from knowing for sure:

14.1 MP
mirrored CF slots for safe microdrive use
Kodak sensor
street price about 5000
don't know whoose body.

If that camera is for real it could shake things up and bring the 1ds price point to around 5000. This would be similar to the D100 price dropping to match the D60 before it ever came out.

Lee Rothman said:
for Canon to debut a camera "above" the current 1D in price, and
that the current 1D would drop to $4000 and the new one at $6000.
So it is just possible that the new 1Ds will subsequently increase
the sales of the current 1D as NOT everyone needs a huge file size
as a requirement to their shooting styles, but would welcome a fast
autofocus and robust build. I think it's rather clever of them
actually, and I personally think that THIS is what will actually
result. Heck, I would have done it exactly that way also from a
marketing standpoint.....Makes sense to me one digicam a $2000 one
at $4000 and one at $6000.......PERFECT....

--
John Mason - Lafayette, IN

Seth Honeyman · Sep 15, 2002

I'd bet that the bigger sales hit will be taken by the super wide angles. There's been a lot of back and forth on whether the 16-35 is really good. With a full frame sensor, superwides are no longer as necessary. Could make those old (and sharp) 20-35's look very desirable.

Greg M said:
snip

I'm not saying that 1D

Greg M said:
sales will be cut in half but I am saying that 1D sales will be
affected.

snip

--
Regards - Seth

Tim Lozinski · Sep 15, 2002

HEY, who told you that you were allowed to be a genius!?

I think mirrored CF slots is a superb idea. I can't believe nobody mentioned it before. You have really hit a nail there (unless you say now with modesty that you have not thought this up yourself and just read about it somewhere

)

Just think, perhaps they go one step ahead, and do RAID striping on CF cards for faster bandwidth.

Ah, but then there would be the insanely retentive step of Mirroring AND Striping, needing 4 CF slots.

Man, I'm joking here, but the scary thing is some serious issues arrise with 'valuable data'. Certainly the idea of Mirroring works for the 'Mission Critical Server' industry, why not for 'Mission Critical Camera' industry.

I mean come on! Who would put their professional trust in a roll of film that would 'lose' your picture if you dropped it on the ground? Well, I suppose that's what Video Camcorder users do huh?

Cheers man - Tim

Horst Kretzschmar · Sep 15, 2002

1D has been designed for fast press work with high picture frequencies. 1DS delivers very high resloution at rather slow speed depending on the hugh files. 1DS is not designed for press work. They are competitors to Nikon (but working on very much higher level), the 1Ds against the D1X and the 1D against the D1H. So price of 1DS and 1D will be more or less the same, each camera designed for another special working group.

--
H. Kretzschmar, Germany

John Mason · Sep 15, 2002

I actually posted the raid idea here ages ago.

However, my little post of specs of a hypothetical camera is supposedly an actually camera going to be introduced at Photokina.

My source is one of the main salespeople at a camera store.

Well know in 2 weeks!

Greg M · Sep 15, 2002

No one has said that the 1D and 1DS are competitors.

Horst Kretzschmar said:
1D has been designed for fast press work with high picture
frequencies. 1DS delivers very high resloution at rather slow speed
depending on the hugh files. 1DS is not designed for press work.
They are competitors to Nikon (but working on very much higher
level), the 1Ds against the D1X and the 1D against the D1H. So
price of 1DS and 1D will be more or less the same, each camera
designed for another special working group.

That makes sense if they came out at the same time but because the 1D has been the only choice there have been many 1D sales that would have been 1DS sales. I'm just saying that unless the 1D drops in price, the sales of the 1D will drop. Now if it does drop in price then I think you will see the 1D sales take off.

Canon has a chance here, with the superior 1D and 1DS, to really slam the competition if they price these bodies aggressively. It makes sense because of all the lenses (and future bodies) that they will sell to go with these bodies. I know that with the money that I have in lenses I have no intention of swithing to another system.

Horst Kretzschmar said:
--
H. Kretzschmar, Germany

Horst Kretzschmar · Sep 15, 2002

Greg M said:
Canon has a chance here, with the superior 1D and 1DS, to really
slam the competition if they price these bodies aggressively.

I totally agree, and I hope Canon will do such an aggressiv pricing. It may depend of their resources to be able to deliver enough cameras.
--
H. Kretzschmar, Germany

John Davis · Sep 15, 2002

Yeah... it's the business principle of eating your young, to stay in front.

But, Greg's thesis is correct. For Canon it does not matter. For current 1D users it is a different question. It depends on the 1Ds price point and how the 1D market value evolves. I would think that it will hurt. I think that Canon (and Nikon) will soon have a tiered product line with an entry level DSLR (Rebel-like), a mid-range (D60) and a hig-end 1Dx. The tendency is for prices to drop with time. The entry level will start around $1k and come down to mid-to-high $100s; the mid-range is now at $2k and will come down to around $1k; and finally the high-end is now at $5k and will come down (to $2k-to-$3k).

My $0.02.

John

Pondria said:
Greg M said:

Before you flame consider this, until the 1DS there has been no
Canon DSLR for you to get (if you need better performance than the
D30/60) then the 1D. Therefore anyone that needed a better camera
had to buy the 1D. Now that there is a choice the sales will be
somewhat split between the two choices. I'm not saying that 1D
sales will be cut in half but I am saying that 1D sales will be
affected.

What will Canon do?

I believe, based on the past, that the 1DS will come out at a lower
list price then the current 1D list price. The 1D will also drop
in price. Canon knows that there are a lot of 1D sales that are
just waiting for the price to drop below $4000. With an expected
drop off in 1D sales I'm sure that they will want to cash in on
those that will buy at less then $4000 before they replace the 1D.

Click to expand...

--

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.sesee.com/Photo/Galleries/Galleries.asp

Greg M · Sep 15, 2002

John Davis said:
Yeah... it's the business principle of eating your young, to stay
in front.

But, Greg's thesis is correct. For Canon it does not matter. For
current 1D users it is a different question. It depends on the 1Ds
price point and how the 1D market value evolves. I would think that
it will hurt. I think that Canon (and Nikon) will soon have a
tiered product line with an entry level DSLR (Rebel-like), a
mid-range (D60) and a hig-end 1Dx. The tendency is for prices to
drop with time. The entry level will start around $1k and come down
to mid-to-high $100s; the mid-range is now at $2k and will come
down to around $1k; and finally the high-end is now at $5k and will
come down (to $2k-to-$3k).

I'd say you are right and it will happen in the next 2 or 3 years. If Canon is smart then they will take advantage of their position and push the prices down faster then the compitition can get their products to the market. They've made a bunch of their R&D back and they could prevent others from making their R&D by pushing down margins.

John Davis said:
My $0.02.

John

Pondria said:

Greg M said:

Before you flame consider this, until the 1DS there has been no
Canon DSLR for you to get (if you need better performance than the
D30/60) then the 1D. Therefore anyone that needed a better camera
had to buy the 1D. Now that there is a choice the sales will be
somewhat split between the two choices. I'm not saying that 1D
sales will be cut in half but I am saying that 1D sales will be
affected.

What will Canon do?

I believe, based on the past, that the 1DS will come out at a lower
list price then the current 1D list price. The 1D will also drop
in price. Canon knows that there are a lot of 1D sales that are
just waiting for the price to drop below $4000. With an expected
drop off in 1D sales I'm sure that they will want to cash in on
those that will buy at less then $4000 before they replace the 1D.

Click to expand...

--

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http://www.sesee.com/Photo/Galleries/Galleries.asp

Click to expand...

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