Is the megapixel race over?

Jimmy Chen · Sep 12, 2002

Member said:
I wonder what the latest stats are, when looking at 35mm cameras,
SLR cameras, and how digital (all types of models) have impacted on
film camera sales. It's been a while since I've seen some stats
gathered.

LOL, no clue. I could only share with people my own experience on this. I myself have had a PS for a long time and I have access to a SLR as well, but I hardly use either of them because of film and development cost.

Digital totally removed the cost factor for me in that reguard. This is why I now see no problems on jumping into the DSLR level once this 35mm sensor size things plays out better. As a matter of fact, this kind of race is what I am waiting for. I was guessing that it wont start for another couple of years, but Canon seems more then eagar to get the race started.

--
jc
F707 w/ Nikon 5T/6T
http://www.reefkeepers.org/gallery/f707
http://www.reeftec.com/gallery

Jimmy Chen · Sep 12, 2002

Capital Man said:
Why do people buy SLRs now? The market has just evolved that way.
Point and shoot cameras have no manual control options at all. No
one is willing to pay extra for such features unless it comes with
a reflex mirror.

And there may be a reason behind that ... Put it this way, whenever someone gets involve with any hobby, it is almost always they start with the basics ... PS is the basics for photography. However, once you advance in the hobby, you skill improves and your need for better equipment changes, and (d)SLR is that level for this hobby.

Capital Man said:
You only need a DSLR to see through the lens. You don't
need a DSLR in order to have control over aperture and shutter
speed.

Correct, and it is only by seeing thru the lens will you get the true focus and exposure feed back.

--
jc
F707 w/ Nikon 5T/6T
http://www.reefkeepers.org/gallery/f707
http://www.reeftec.com/gallery

Capital Man · Sep 12, 2002

Jimmy Chen said:
And there may be a reason behind that ... Put it this way, whenever
someone gets involve with any hobby, it is almost always they start
with the basics ... PS is the basics for photography. However, once
you advance in the hobby, you skill improves and your need for
better equipment changes, and (d)SLR is that level for this hobby.

PS is basics? That's funny. I thought PS is a whole bunch of automatic features, and basics is a camera like the Minolta X-370s (the only "basic" camera still being sold new). (That Minolta is completely manual except its shutter is electronically controlled and it has aperture priority mode and a self timer.)

Ulysses · Sep 12, 2002

Jimmy Chen said:
Digital totally removed the cost factor for me in that reguard.

Question for you. How would you address the question that someone might pose this way:

"How can you say that there is no cost involved. That camera you have cost you way over $1,000. You have to buy the computer and the software to process it. If you're printing, you have the costs of the printer and paper and ink. Does the end result justify the price in the thousands of dollars, especially for the person who is in it for hobby's sake?"

Jimmy Chen said:
this kind of race is what I am waiting for. I was guessing
that it wont start for another couple of years, but Canon seems
more then eagar to get the race started.

I don't know exactly when the trickle-down effect will start, but it will likely be a couple more generations, at least, before we see costs pushed down by advancements from Canon's latest wonder or by Foveon. At least in the four and five megapixel family, manufacturers are just as likely to keep prices up near $1000 so that they can recoup the money of research and development.

You know... ride the hog for a while. Until we start noticing what's going on.

--

Ulysses

Jimmy Chen · Sep 12, 2002

Member said:
Question for you. How would you address the question that someone
might pose this way:

"How can you say that there is no cost involved. That camera you
have cost you way over $1,000. You have to buy the computer and the
software to process it. If you're printing, you have the costs of
the printer and paper and ink. Does the end result justify the
price in the thousands of dollars, especially for the person who is
in it for hobby's sake?"

Agreed, when the final print is required. However, one huge difference digital brings to the playing field is now people like me who do not have photographic experties can go out and shoot as many shots as I like and I do not have to spend any more money. I can shoot hundreds of shots and only print the ones I like, whereas with film, I have to spend money before I can even see any result.

One example of this ... My sister-in-law's friend owns a photography shop, his shop is totally digital, instead of running prints/proofs to show his clients, he burns the shots on a CD. Huge difference in cost for both parties.

As for computer and sw, I agree.

Member said:
I don't know exactly when the trickle-down effect will start, but
it will likely be a couple more generations, at least, before we
see costs pushed down by advancements from Canon's latest wonder or
by Foveon. At least in the four and five megapixel family,
manufacturers are just as likely to keep prices up near $1000 so
that they can recoup the money of research and development.

You know... ride the hog for a while. Until we start noticing
what's going on.

However long it will take, it will take just as long two years from now. Differences is Canon is going to start that trickle effect today. ;p

--
jc
F707 w/ Nikon 5T/6T
http://www.reefkeepers.org/gallery/f707
http://www.reeftec.com/gallery

Jimmy Chen · Sep 12, 2002

Capital Man said:
PS is basics? That's funny. I thought PS is a whole bunch of
automatic features, and basics is a camera like the Minolta X-370s
(the only "basic" camera still being sold new). (That Minolta is
completely manual except its shutter is electronically controlled
and it has aperture priority mode and a self timer.)

Basics as in people who lacks any knowledge of photography can still take good photos. Just because those camares have all those automatic features do not make the user any more knowledgeable.

--
jc
F707 w/ Nikon 5T/6T
http://www.reefkeepers.org/gallery/f707
http://www.reeftec.com/gallery

GeoffB · Sep 12, 2002

DarrenH said:
But the point of the article, Jimmy, is that demand will slow the
so-called "megapixel race". It's not really about what is possible
or not. The market is always the captain of that ship.

And we know this will happen, because a similar thing has happened
in the home computing market. People are no longer buying
computers in the same numbers that they used to because there's
simply no need for a 3GHz machine if they have a 1.7GHz and they're
happy with it.

The numbers gets bigger and the argument remains the same. Just as a reality check ... 1.7 GHz was state of the art about 1.5yrs ago. I'm getting pretty limited by my 2year old 700MHz laptop at the moment. My 66MHz 486 lasted me about 2.5 years as did the pentium after that.

I do agree though ... the market is king ... and right now most people have a 2.5megapixel printer and a 2megapixel monitor. It's pretty hard to see the difference between 5 and 10 megapixels when that's your output. I don't see an end to increasing megapixels but it may have to wait for improvements in printing, storage, monitors, etc (maybe even computer processors).

DarrenH said:
To imagine everything is a simple straight line that goes on
forever is to be naive. Where was Microsoft stock and the Dow
Jones supposed to be right now according to 1999 predictions?

Yikes ... are you saying we'll all be using 0.5megapixel cameras if a few years

DarrenH said:
Cheers,
D

Jimmy Chen said:

DarrenH said:

interesting read...

Click to expand...

Far from it, the real war is just starting ...

Canon just announced the 11.1mp full frame sensor ...
Kodak has in the oven a 10mp full frame sensor ...
Who knows what Sony is cooking?

Major camera mfg'ers such as Nikon/Oly/Kodak are not going to sit
there and not come out with a 35mm DSLR while Canon grabs the
market ...

The war is just starting ... IMHO.

--
jc
F707 w/ Nikon 5T/6T
http://www.reefkeepers.org/gallery/f707
http://www.reeftec.com/gallery

Click to expand...

--
http://www.pbase.com/geoffb

Ulysses · Sep 12, 2002

Jimmy Chen said:
One example of this ... My sister-in-law's friend owns a
photography shop, his shop is totally digital, instead of running
prints/proofs to show his clients, he burns the shots on a CD. Huge
difference in cost for both parties.

Great example.

--

Ulysses

santa · Sep 12, 2002

Steve Cavigliano said:
Good reading, thanks for posting the link, sunscream

I agree with Darren. The market will determine how many pixels are
required. More pixels is good, but it's not the only factor that
determines image quality. That the 3mp SLR's have image quality
better than the 5mp 707 demonstrates this point. The article cites
diminishing returns as one reason that consumer/pro-sumer DC's
won't see as much emphasis on mega-pixels. I have to agree. I
mean why would you need a 10 or 20mp image for most shots? The
extra pixels won't make it look any better as an 8X10. IMO, DC
makers need to concentrate on making sensors that produce more
film-like images, under almost all conditions Like the article
said, point, shoot and be happy with the image. Just like the
film world, but better. Since you get instant gratification. I
expect most high-end DC's to be around the 5-8mp level for the
forseeable future. IMO, the cost versus benefit just isn't there.
Without major benefits (in terms of image quality), why up-grade?

Just my opinion and thx again sunscream,

Well said, but I think you fail to recognize the fundamental force of technological progress. At some point soon we will have a Foveon, or some similar technology, that will create higher resolutions, with truer colors, less noise, and on and on and on. Because it is technologically feasible to continue to refine the imaging technology, it will be done. Ipso facto. As that process continues we find ourselves with $1000 cameras that can create 30x40" posters at kinko's. Few people will care about their ability to print at huge sizes, but everyone will appreciate the excellent color rendition and sharpness. I can only guess what a $1000 camera will be capable of in 5 years, but I'm sure I'll be able to simply bring my camera near my computer and click on a button and it will download automatically. That kind of thing won't help me take better pictures, but I'll enjoy those kinds of features as they come available. I'll be upgrading over the upcoming years, that's for sure.

Steve Cavigliano · Sep 13, 2002

santa said:
Well said, but I think you fail to recognize the fundamental force
of technological progress. At some point soon we will have a
Foveon, or some similar technology, that will create higher
resolutions, with truer colors, less noise, and on and on and on.

I agree, but as you know, Foveon is less mega-pixels yet may have higher resolution, truer color and lower noise than higher mp cams. My point being, mega-pixel count ain't everything ;-) Image quality is key.

santa said:
Because it is technologically feasible to continue to refine the
imaging technology, it will be done. Ipso facto. As that process
continues we find ourselves with $1000 cameras that can create
30x40" posters at kinko's. Few people will care about their
ability to print at huge sizes, but everyone will appreciate the
excellent color rendition and sharpness. I can only guess what a
$1000 camera will be capable of in 5 years, but I'm sure I'll be
able to simply bring my camera near my computer and click on a
button and it will download automatically. That kind of thing won't
help me take better pictures, but I'll enjoy those kinds of
features as they come available. I'll be upgrading over the
upcoming years, that's for sure.

I agree with this as well. I just don't think it's going to take mega-pixel wars to get there. As you mentioned, the image quality improvements that are possible, even with current technology, are going to make this a very interesting next few years.

Great points, thanks for taking the time to respond,
Steve

--
http://www.pbase.com/slo2k

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Is the megapixel race over?

Jimmy Chen

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Jimmy Chen

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Jimmy Chen

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