Hi Nick,Sorry but this is not exactly the same puzzle. The card puzzle makes no mention of the dealer having 'inside' knowledge about which card is the K, so all the choices are pure chance. In the case of The Monty Hall thing (which I have never heard of before) it involves intervention by the host who makes informed choices knowing where the winning door is - so that changes all the odds.
If you are convinced you are right, then hand out 3 cards to your kids and record the results. Proof of the pudding ...
You are technically correct that no specific mention was made of the dealer having knowledge of the cards identities. Under this assumption, your solution is correct and your simulation is also correct.
However this line of reasoning leads to an uninteresting and kinda moot puzzle rather than the famous one that I think was intended but not stated carefully enough. That's not your fault, however and I apologize for jumping to the conclusion that you were incorrect.
Your sticking to your guns forced me to look again more carefully at this puzzle and I thank you for it.
It's not a question of right or wrong here, but being careful of one's assumptions.
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Don
http://www.pbase.com/dond