E-P1 + New Samsung = Death of the SLR?

Actually, we might not have to wait a year. Japan isn't the world, but sales data there show that DSLR's are not outselling G1's and E-P1's by 10 to 1 today.

http://www.dslrphoto.com/dslr/space.php?do=news&id=5555

In any event, it will be entertaining to revisit this thread a year from now. It is very entertaining right now just to watch how many people get their dress up over their head and start flying around the room because someone made a prognostication of the future of the camera business!
 
Actually, we might not have to wait a year. Japan isn't the world, but sales data there show that DSLR's are not outselling G1's and E-P1's by 10 to 1 today.
Sure you just said it. Japan isn't the world!

If you combine Europe and the USA as a DSLR market, it makes Japan look like tiny overall.

What goes on in Japan, tends not to in the rest of the world.

And the new pen isn't a yes vote for EVF either, it does not have a viewfinder at all!
 
I bet that a year from now DSLRs will outsell expensive m4/3 models and EVF APS-C cameras 10-1.
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http://dslr-video.com/blogmag/
What if we made the horizon 3 years?

(I assume the best is that unit sales of DSLR's will outnumber interchangeable lens m4/3's plus EVF APS-C by 10-1 by July 1, 201x).

Three years seems a like a much more interesting proposition.

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Jeff
 
It is very entertaining right now just to watch how many people get their dress up over their head and start flying around the room because someone made a prognostication of the future of the camera business!
That clears it up. Just another "let's stir up the pot", hiding behind the "honest question" pretense, not willing to back up any of his wild claims... yawn.

Yes, Canon and Nikon lost, Samsung owns digicam world, DSLRs are no more, tiny cameras with LCDs took over, especially after being equipped with on-board BBQ, stock market prognosticator, grocery shopping cart and defibrillator. Now this miracle of technology makes money in the market for its owner, goes to the store and buys groceries,, cooks them, feeds the owner and resuscitates him when his heart gives out on account of immobility. Oh, and of course it takes the pictures of all that in the process. There. Why stop where you have?
 
Olympus/Panasonic/Samsung seem to be the innovators with EVF. But my guess is, if they begin to take decent market, that Sony/Canon/Nikon to be delivering the goods pretty fast, too.

Remember when liveview was a 'solution looking for a problem'? Now it's everywhere in the dslr world. If EVF begins to take market share, I'd expect to see the same.

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Jeff
 
I was going to post that there will come a time when the resolution/clarity/contrast of a EVF will exceed that obtainable from a plastic mirror prism viewfinder such as those used in the E420 etc.

But it seems that such things exist already:



http://www.emagin.com/products/OLEDMD/SXGA.php

The SXGA OLED-XL active matrix OLED provides the best combination of high resolution and low power requirement available in any technology. It offers digital signal processing in an extremely compact package (0.77 inch diagonal active area) ... The 1280 x 1024 triad pixel array comprises triads of vertical sub-pixels stacked side by side to make up each 12 x 12µm color pixel. /

A good optical glass prism precision mechanical system will no doubt still win out on the high end 35mm FF formats, but for µ4/3 with its poorer display magnification it seems sensible to make the switch earlier ( if not now - i.e. for the next generation : E-4 and E-P2 ).
 
No, I don't dismiss the G1 and similar. When I cite "hybrids" I mean anything that has a 4/3 sensor, or larger, and interchangeable lenses, but no mirror. The G1 is outselling some CanKon models.
 
I'm not an engineer, but I doubt 150,000 shutter actuations are possible on a camera using it's sensor as a substitute for a mirror.

The mechanics of the shutter action aren't in question, but the long term survival of the sensor. For every one of those 150,000 fraction of a second shots, think about how much longer the sensor is on an burning away during composition, during times your walking with the camera turned on, when you forget to turn off the camera etc.

Also, I wonder about having a pro level camera with an exposed sensor.

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Olympus E-3, E-620 and E-420

Zuiko 7-14mm, 25mm pancake, 50mm, 14-42mm, 12-60mm, 50-200mm, and 8mm fisheye. FL-36R and FL-50R Flashes. HLD-4 Grip.
Canon PowerShot TX1
Ricoh GR-D
Sony DSC-V3
 
moveable framelines and shooting info such as aperture/shutter and focus area hit?

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kit list in my profile
 
I do not know what the hell is so important about full frame, but you going to have to wait a long long time for a full frame camera the size of the EP1. If it ever happens.
Narrow DOF and better high ISO because it can gather more light. A 43 sensor maker might be able to make "as good as" jpgs as a FF maker, but the if they put that into a larger sensor, they'd be better still! (of course, there are other trade-offs in lens length, but it would be nice to have both -- a 43 sensor AND a FF sensor both in small bodies).
Do you mean large FF lenses and a compact FF body as an accessory?
Would you like smooth CAF HD video with that?

In my opinion, DSLRs will survive in the FF format because of all the goodies a larger sensor provides. This also implies larger lenses hence larger bodies where a TTL optical finder will always have its place.

On the other hand the 4/3 DSLR might be at risk once CAF, EVF and bright prime lenses are available in the m4/3 format but this still a few years away. In the meanwhile, I am waiting for the E620 and ZD 50mm F2 I ordered last week because I cannot wait for this new system to be designed and my kids are growing up right now!
 
...but I think no mirror means no phase detect auto focus. No doubt contrast detect can improve beyond what we have currently available, but I think the lack of 'really-super-fast-auto-focus' abilities in a mirrorless camera will always keep SLRs around for those who need it.

Cheers,

S.G.
The more I learn about the coming NX from Samsung, and seeing the record setting response to the E-P1, it is clear to me that the SLR is now obsolete. If Samsung delivers the promised "EVF that is the equal of any optical VF" there will simply be no reason to complicate a camera with the bulk, expense and cost of a flipping mirror. The NX will increase sensor size to APS. Canon and Nikon better get busy with a ff hybrid or they will be toast. If E-P1 sales trends continue, and the NX delivers all that it promises, I can see these two companies owning the enitre digicam market. And don't dismiss the Samsung label. 20 years ago we scoffed at their TV sets as cheap junk.
 
The more I learn about the coming NX from Samsung, and seeing the record setting > response to the E-P1, it is clear to me that the SLR is now obsolete.
So when they announced the Volkswagen beetle did you predict the end of the Mercedes?

People have been proclaiming the end of the SLR after the invention of this, that or the other small camera for half a century or more.

If the E-P1 and similar cameras have any effect on the SLR market it will be to enlarge it, not diminish it.

--

People who utter the phrase 'I have a good eye' should be beaten to death with their
cameras... but not too quickly!
 
. . . death. But a death nevertheless. I find it hard to imagine that anyone but collectors, the nostalgic, and "purists" will be shooting OVF in 20 years.

I will be one of them, because I love film and old cameras. Even my old EOS V has its film era charm! But the industry will move on in professional and consumer spheres leaving prisms with film in the "analog" toolbox for people who like that thing.

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Comments are always welcome.

Zach Bellino

'Nothing, like something, happens anywhere.”
-- from 'I Remember, I Remember'
Philip Larkin (1922-1985)
 
I bet that a year from now DSLRs will outsell expensive m4/3 models and EVF APS-C cameras 10-1.
Don't! If you take the Japanese market as a reference (as someone has already posted) the bet is already lost, as the stakes are 4-1 right there right now.

BTW if the rumors about Samsung NX EVF are right, I have to say it is nothing short of amazing and hardly at LCD reach:
1620×1080p/250Hz

Give me that over the OVF anytime!

And since there was evidence pointing that the Panasonic G1's high AF contrast detect speed was a consequence of the EVF's 180Hz refresh rate, then the Samsung NX looks the more and more promising.
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Duarte Bruno
 
Don't! If you take the Japanese market as a reference (as someone has already posted) the bet is already lost, as the stakes are 4-1 right there right now.
While I am happy to see that the E-P1 sells well, I would not extrapolate these numbers. The E-P1 was just introduced and so it is not surprising that many people rushed to buy one. If it will still have such large sells in a few months is a big unknown at this point.
 
I wonder if we would have a half-coated mirror option (mirror does not move, just send some light to the focus sensor) just so we can keep the lightning fast Phase detect AF.
 
I do not know what the hell is so important about full frame, but you going to have to wait a long long time for a full frame camera the size of the EP1. If it ever happens.
Narrow DOF and better high ISO because it can gather more light. A 43 sensor maker might be able to make "as good as" jpgs as a FF maker, but the if they put that into a larger sensor, they'd be better still! (of course, there are other trade-offs in lens length, but it would be nice to have both -- a 43 sensor AND a FF sensor both in small bodies).
Do you mean large FF lenses and a compact FF body as an accessory?
Would you like smooth CAF HD video with that?

In my opinion, DSLRs will survive in the FF format because of all the goodies a larger sensor provides. This also implies larger lenses hence larger bodies where a TTL optical finder will always have its place.

On the other hand the 4/3 DSLR might be at risk once CAF, EVF and bright prime lenses are available in the m4/3 format but this still a few years away. In the meanwhile, I am waiting for the E620 and ZD 50mm F2 I ordered last week because I cannot wait for this new system to be designed and my kids are growing up right now!
My thinking is that there is a place for tiny sensors (really deep DOF at wide apertures) for people who just want to point and shoot without focusing, and then a place for larger sensors for people who want more DOF and creative control. Also, physics and light being what they are, larger sensors can gather more light, so if you are using the same sensor technology and the same sensor processing, you can do better with a larger sensor. But, physics also demand larger/longer lenses on larger sensors for the same FOV.

So, there are places for all of these. Folks who think bridge cameras will kill everything are pretty naive. The 4/3 sensor sits in between and, IMO, is a compromise position. I would rather have a larger sensor in a body the size of the EP1, but as it's not yet available, the EP1 is a great camera, and I think many more like it will follow.

I think overall, this thread is a bit confused if it is talking the death of simply the mirror or the death of larger sensor formats, or the death of large cameras. If you could replace the mirror completely and lose the weight (and assuming cost is the same) then why wouldn't you. The question on the mirror side is, are EVFs "good enough" to replace mirrors. The answer is -- not quite yet (at least not as implemented) and I doubt within the year.

At the same time, will the 43 sensor replace or obsolete the APS-C or FF format sensors? No way, but could a 43-based system become more popular in the short run? It's possible, but that will just accelerate the release of smaller, full-featured APS-C and FF cameras (which is a good thing, IMO).

43 is introduce camera sizes that people want, but whether it will establish a true place in photography long term, or is just a passing format until larger sensors shrink in camera size, is a question I don't think I could answer, except to say that in years past, there were also Kodak instamatics, true DSLRs, consumer DSLRs and rangfinder-types (including PENs). What's to say that's not how it will shake out in digital? Each size/sensor combo has a unique set of strengths and weaknesses going for it.
 
...... on the E-P1, then you can talk, until then....dream on with your glorified point-n-shoot.
 

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