Ripper103348
Well-known member
Nobody said the Olympus gear isn't good. But it's pretty clear that even
before digital, Olympus wasn't much of a competitor to Nikon or Canon.
-T
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New Olympus SLR
- Thread starter Matthew Cromer
- Start date
before digital, Olympus wasn't much of a competitor to Nikon or Canon.
-T
Ripper103348
Well-known member
That's a big assumption.
I don't see Oly making the gear a loss leader to leverage a possible future market.
And Oly was hugely successful with proprietary products. There's no
data to suggest that they'll do otherwise with the DSLR, even if Oly wants to establish a new standard.
Wouldn't it be funny if the idea that a smaller
First, I don't think for a second that Canon or Nikon are going
to shelve full size 35mm sized digital cameras. Those companies are going to continue to improve and enlarge the CCD to the point that
it will be big enough for the coverage 35mm format lenses provide.
That will ensure that companies like Sigma will continue to produce lenses for 35mm gear.
Now, I can see the majors making high end consumer camera that has
a smaller CCD and uses matched lenses. But would they use the same
lens mount as Oly? If so, then I'd expect that 3rd party lenses would
appear for the mount. But if the majors go with proprietary mounts, I think Olympus will still lack 3rd party support. Based on the assumption, that all things being more or less equal, people will choose Nikon or Canon over Olympus.
"decent price" is a stumbling block. Fast glass is expensive (a little less expensive for a lens that needs to cover a small image area) and there's no reason to think that Oly produced lens prices won't reflect that.
Also, who's to say what photographers want? Is Oly going to make an extremely large range of lenses to satisfy any photographer (including primes)? Or are consumers going to be faced with a (much) smaller range
of lenses for the Oly DSLR system?
The key to big market penetration for the Oly DSLR is 3rd party support, IMO. And I don't see how Oly is going to do that with a new standard.
But that reflects your needs, not the needs of all photographers. Maybe someone wants a 17mm prime and not a zoom. Maybe they want
[insert lens here]. As I said above, I think that Oly will be shooting themselves in the foot if they think that serious amateurs will be totally happy with whatever Oly decides to make. There's a reason that
the majors and 3rd party lens makers produce such a large range
of lenses: because people buy them. If Oly doesn't produce
a reasonable range of lenses or get some third party support, they're going to have a hard time selling the DSLR into the serious amateur/prosumer
market.
-T
Gerald M. Payne
Senior Member
Theodore,
Being a realist, if they don't do it for less, they won't do it at all -unless they only wish to settle for the unexplored markets, upgraders, etc!
If they want to make any in-roads with the 35mm DSLR crowd it's either going to have to be much better or attractively priced -both wouldn't hurt. If you consider the turmoil in the digital market with the new models every 6-12 months cycle, the idea of establishing a digital line which they can expect will bring repeat business in the form of lenses or body upgraders is a VERY good move since Oly doesn't have that kind of continuity and Canon & Nikon do.
I didn't pick $1600 out of the air, it's what Oly's rep(Sr VP, or somesuch, as I recall) mentioned in either the first or second bit of info released regarding what we've tagged the "Olydak". I think the figure of $1600 for a body and one lens was mentioned in the interview with the japanese fellow who always seems to get the inside info before anyone in the US does -forgive me, I can't think of his name at the moment.
I think Oly will need to hit the pricepoint or people will buy the proven, existing model for the same money. It's always harder to educate than motivate.
People have done it. I think one has to consider that Oly is probably not going to compete effectively with people selling to users with a $2-6K glass investment, unless they can do it CHEAPLY and with features they can't yet get with 35mm. I have a friend who just bought a slightly used consumer model digicam because he doesn't always want to use his D1X... Oly has always sold less costly hardware to a broader market: sales volume vs. price per unit. Further, they will not make inroads on a serious pro market quickly, nor will they make them at all until their sevice improves.(though I've heard a few stories about the other guy's service departments as well... one always hears the worst.)
My crystal ball is as cracked as the next guy's, but I call 'em like I see 'em. If they do an Olydak like we think they will, it'll be sold for under $2k to compete with C & N and attract a user base for the new format. I'm not saying it'll be a $1.98 Digicam, but I'm betting it'll start nearer $1600 and possibly be a fairly basic unit -hopefully a bit better than an E-10/20. Want to bet the next body will be the one everybody really wants now that they have lenses -and it'll cost just a bit more? See a trend? Got hook'em 'fore you can reel 'em in. There's enough room for improvement in the current E-XX line to sell the first model and lenses. There are also a lot of Oly owners that like the ergonomics/styling/user interface so they may stick in part for that. Want to bet the body will also be a bit smaller than an E-xx, if technically possible? ;-) If nothing else it'll be entertaining to see whose crystal ball is cracked the worst...
Being a realist, if they don't do it for less, they won't do it at all -unless they only wish to settle for the unexplored markets, upgraders, etc!
If they want to make any in-roads with the 35mm DSLR crowd it's either going to have to be much better or attractively priced -both wouldn't hurt. If you consider the turmoil in the digital market with the new models every 6-12 months cycle, the idea of establishing a digital line which they can expect will bring repeat business in the form of lenses or body upgraders is a VERY good move since Oly doesn't have that kind of continuity and Canon & Nikon do.
I didn't pick $1600 out of the air, it's what Oly's rep(Sr VP, or somesuch, as I recall) mentioned in either the first or second bit of info released regarding what we've tagged the "Olydak". I think the figure of $1600 for a body and one lens was mentioned in the interview with the japanese fellow who always seems to get the inside info before anyone in the US does -forgive me, I can't think of his name at the moment.
I see. Investors value their money, but purchasers only care about features... UH, huh. What have you ever sold my friend?
I think Oly will need to hit the pricepoint or people will buy the proven, existing model for the same money. It's always harder to educate than motivate.I'm not saying Oly would suddenly outdo Canon & Nikon, but they may slip another one by the batter like they did with the E-10... The E-10 had to have an impact on D30 sales as well as Nikon's high end consumer models -just look at the 5700... I'd bet Canon & Nikon have R&D going on a smaller full frame sensor system like Oly's and possibly for a full frame 35mm size system. They have the $$$ to do both(it'd really only be lens/body money on the APS sized one as they have the sensors/subsystems) and are in for the long haul. My guess is that a 35mm size full frame system could become the new medium format and the smaller APS sized model we're looking at would be the 35mm equivalent format. Kodak says they can shove 20MP in the 4/3" sensor size... 8-12MP would probably be plenty, especially if it could be done as a Foveon CCD. Imagine what one could reasonably get out of a full 35mm frame sized CCD?
OK, but if they can make wide aperture lenses cheaply enough to sell them in low $ digicams and the 4/3" sensor is still a factor of 4 smaller in area than a 35mm sensor it's not unreasonable to expect some cost savings over the 35mm counterparts. My guess is that if they only initially introduce 5 lenses as they've said they'll have to be FAST and reasonably priced when compared to 35mm to attract buyers and establish the standard. The 35mm market will be harder to sell to with their current investment, so the "lenseless" will have to be appealed to, it'll take price to do that. I guarantee you $1600 vs. $2K will put lights in people's eyes. Especially if the other lenses released sell for less than 35mm counterparts. That doesn't necessarily make them cheap. Have you priced 35mm lenses? Sheesh.
There's realism and then there's realism. Is buying a new digicam every year or couple of years at 4X's the price of a current 35mm system realistic?
People have done it. I think one has to consider that Oly is probably not going to compete effectively with people selling to users with a $2-6K glass investment, unless they can do it CHEAPLY and with features they can't yet get with 35mm. I have a friend who just bought a slightly used consumer model digicam because he doesn't always want to use his D1X... Oly has always sold less costly hardware to a broader market: sales volume vs. price per unit. Further, they will not make inroads on a serious pro market quickly, nor will they make them at all until their sevice improves.(though I've heard a few stories about the other guy's service departments as well... one always hears the worst.)My crystal ball is as cracked as the next guy's, but I call 'em like I see 'em. If they do an Olydak like we think they will, it'll be sold for under $2k to compete with C & N and attract a user base for the new format. I'm not saying it'll be a $1.98 Digicam, but I'm betting it'll start nearer $1600 and possibly be a fairly basic unit -hopefully a bit better than an E-10/20. Want to bet the next body will be the one everybody really wants now that they have lenses -and it'll cost just a bit more? See a trend? Got hook'em 'fore you can reel 'em in. There's enough room for improvement in the current E-XX line to sell the first model and lenses. There are also a lot of Oly owners that like the ergonomics/styling/user interface so they may stick in part for that. Want to bet the body will also be a bit smaller than an E-xx, if technically possible? ;-) If nothing else it'll be entertaining to see whose crystal ball is cracked the worst...
Gerald M. Payne
Senior Member
Not really. No bigger than the assumption that they'd have to produce them as loss leaders to do it... Where did you buy your crystal ball?
I just think they'll have to price them below equivalent 35mm counterparts to make an overall system attractive. Have you priced moderate to high end lenses? Sheesh! Tell me there's not some MAJOR FAT in their pricing.I agree. I'll go you one further and put forth a guess that a full frame 35mm sized sensor will compete with medium format. It won't compete with APS sized models like we're talking about because it'll be too slow for a while yet and cost too much. Too much data to move around in the design.
But, not until they produce one. In the meantime, at the right pricepoint, Oly could have the market to itself as it did for a while with the E-10. It could be long enough to establish enough loyal owners of their glass to keep them going through future bodies. The E-10 sold because it operated near enough to an SLR for LESS money.
Do you really think that the lens in an E-10 costs what a similar lens in 35mm would cost?(the blanket out of warantee minimum of $385 which has covered lens/ccd replacements suggests otherwise) Or that the retail prices of 35mm fairly reflects costs? After how many years of 35mm development? You know that a Sigma with the same specs as a Canon or Nikon costs less, are they giving them away?
Did Oly and Nikon roll out with a huge line when they first started in 35mm? Would C & N need nearly as many lenses in their lines if they could have produced lenses with lower F-stops for less money? I know we disagree on this, but do you really think that digicam lenses with comparable apertures compare in cost to 35mm lenses of similar apertures/performance?
Sez you!
If Oly chooses to grab the same market they did with the E-10/20 then they don't have to directly compete with the world of 35mm glass except pricewise and I think they can do it. It's what they do best, make things affordable to the amateur/consumer market with some Pro penetration. No one thinks of Oly when they think of the top Pro 35mm companies, yet they made money in the 35mm market for years.Really, my wishes. People often get along with less due to reality intruding. Oly doesn't need to sell to all photographers, my guess is they aren't even really trying for the top tier. Too much competition and previous investment in glass. They just want to interest people daydreaming of $2K low end Nikons and Canons and actually sell them a $1.6K Oly...
.Eventually the "ultimate"(Ok, there is no such thing) digicam will have either a very good EVF or an optical finder and likely interchangeable lenses so the company can keep making money and promote brand loyalty. The Pro market is NOTHING compared to the market for a sub $1K digital SLR SYSTEM. That's the Holy grail. Better Mousetrap, yadda, yadda, yadda.
Oly, I'm sure, have their collective eye on that and so do Canon and Nikon. Who'll get there first and bring how many glass owners with 'em? The Olydak could be a step in the right direction if it provides the lens mount basis for future models that Oly currently lacks.How many of Nikon's and Canon's current 35mm lenses are as up to the task of digital as the most recently introduced models? How many of them even AF? How many are still actually in continuous production? In terms of digital, how do they count? I think you have to consider the differences in situations. If N & C were coming out with 35mm today for digitals they wouldn't need such a wide lens line either. Many of their lenses are duplicates except for performance issues or lack full compatibility with their digital products and apparently the optical paths are not as parallel as Oly's lens on the E-10 or 20 or Nikon wouldn't be building new digital glass for their high end goodies.
Gerald M. Payne
Senior Member
I have nothing on the validity of this, but didn't someone post somewhere in regard to the new format and say it was CF compatible with an adapter? In other words, that you could plug the memory into an adapter and then into a CF slot. If so, maybe CF slots would be retained for high end stuff and the native sized slots would appear in smaller/denser cameras? Who knows? Utterly idle speculation.
Frankly, I think we continue to need "improved" proprietary standards like a hole in the head... What are there, about 6 already?
Frankly, I think we continue to need "improved" proprietary standards like a hole in the head... What are there, about 6 already?
I agree with your post, I would like to see some do someone do something truly novel. Recently said something similar to your post:
http://www.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1018&message=3124554
It sucks to be wasting 40% of the light from 35mmm lenses, So I like the concept. But there are a load of issues.
There are many major problems with Olydak:
1: Its not here yet, losing ground every day. Canon is selling every D60 they can build.
2: The kodak sensor quality will most likely pale in comparison to the CMOS in the D60, Remember this thing will take something like 4 MINUTE exposures.
3: It will cost OLY as much as the D60 (if not more!) to build. Shrinking the body size will not result in savings, especially with the investment in a new mount. The sensor is CCD (nearly same size as D60 sensor) and as CCD will cost more to produce. Not only that but the D60 is really just a D30 with a new sensor, its R&D is paid for and its design is cost reduced.
4: They will have to undercut the D60 SIGNIFICANTLY. Put this together with #3 and there is a problem. Especially if Canon decides to crush them.
5: Lens resolution: Kodal was saying they could eventually put something like 20MP sensor in there. Well fine and dandy. Then you need to build todays lens to handle that kind of resolution. Which means they will be very expensive.
I am intrigued, I like the idea. But I predict failure.
http://www.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1018&message=3124554
It sucks to be wasting 40% of the light from 35mmm lenses, So I like the concept. But there are a load of issues.
There are many major problems with Olydak:
1: Its not here yet, losing ground every day. Canon is selling every D60 they can build.
2: The kodak sensor quality will most likely pale in comparison to the CMOS in the D60, Remember this thing will take something like 4 MINUTE exposures.
3: It will cost OLY as much as the D60 (if not more!) to build. Shrinking the body size will not result in savings, especially with the investment in a new mount. The sensor is CCD (nearly same size as D60 sensor) and as CCD will cost more to produce. Not only that but the D60 is really just a D30 with a new sensor, its R&D is paid for and its design is cost reduced.
4: They will have to undercut the D60 SIGNIFICANTLY. Put this together with #3 and there is a problem. Especially if Canon decides to crush them.
5: Lens resolution: Kodal was saying they could eventually put something like 20MP sensor in there. Well fine and dandy. Then you need to build todays lens to handle that kind of resolution. Which means they will be very expensive.
I am intrigued, I like the idea. But I predict failure.
Matthew Cromer
Veteran Member
The D60 is expensive, but it is the lens costs that really tear it.
People who want fast lens, image-stabilized, long glass and N and C plus the lens have to pay well north of $5K. Versus $500 for the 2100UZ for example.
There is room in the middle for people who want quality, transportability, and a reasonable price.
--
my favorite work: http://www.pbase.com/sdaconsulting/favorite_work
People who want fast lens, image-stabilized, long glass and N and C plus the lens have to pay well north of $5K. Versus $500 for the 2100UZ for example.
There is room in the middle for people who want quality, transportability, and a reasonable price.
--
my favorite work: http://www.pbase.com/sdaconsulting/favorite_work
Theodore80476
Leading Member
Hey Matt,
That lens that you are reffering to, was made by Canon, and sold on the Pro90IS, licensed to Oly for use in the 2100UZ
That's the essential problem here, Oly has to either make this stuff from scratch or buy from someone else's technology, neither of which is cheap.
--
Theo
Where are we going?!!?....and what am I doing in this handbasket??!!
Cory Waltz
Well-known member
True but the Oly C700 (38 - 380mm) lens was made by olympus. It's the same zoom range as the 2100, but it lacks Image Stablization.
I hope this project works out, because it definitely seems like it would meet my needs / wants at a potentially affordable price.
I hope this project works out, because it definitely seems like it would meet my needs / wants at a potentially affordable price.
Cory Waltz
Well-known member
Olympus' high end cameras (E-xx) use Compact Flash II. Without compact flash II there's no microdrive support, which would seem like a dumb thing to leave off of a serious DSLR camera. Hopefully Olympus won't be dumb
I want those things as well. But will I pay the same price as the D60 for (likely) inferior quality sensor just to have (potentially) cheaper lenses, and a very small selection of them at that.
When you bring up the UZ (with a Canon Lens), you are talking about toy consumer sensors, which is a whole other game.
Glass for the Olydak will be much heavier and more expensive. You completely ignore the fact that price advantage gained through size, will be lost through smaller volume production.
In the end it will be very similar production cost to a D60 for the whole system. People will judge the picture quality and most will choose the one that is best. I would lay odd on it being the D60 (or D100, or S2).
A massive problem with choosing a new format now is how good do you make the lenses. If you aim at the 5MP sensor of the first cameara, the glass will be too poor when you double resolution. Shoot high now and your glass is more expensive.
Personally I can't wait to see it, hoping they pull off a miracle. Because
really full 35mm frame size sensor are probably never going to make it into a camera for the masses. So current designs will continue to be over lensed and waste light.
But I think only Canon or Nikon have the clout to be the first to successfully pull off this kind of format change. And they have no incentive to do it.
When you bring up the UZ (with a Canon Lens), you are talking about toy consumer sensors, which is a whole other game.
Glass for the Olydak will be much heavier and more expensive. You completely ignore the fact that price advantage gained through size, will be lost through smaller volume production.
In the end it will be very similar production cost to a D60 for the whole system. People will judge the picture quality and most will choose the one that is best. I would lay odd on it being the D60 (or D100, or S2).
A massive problem with choosing a new format now is how good do you make the lenses. If you aim at the 5MP sensor of the first cameara, the glass will be too poor when you double resolution. Shoot high now and your glass is more expensive.
Personally I can't wait to see it, hoping they pull off a miracle. Because
really full 35mm frame size sensor are probably never going to make it into a camera for the masses. So current designs will continue to be over lensed and waste light.
But I think only Canon or Nikon have the clout to be the first to successfully pull off this kind of format change. And they have no incentive to do it.
Cory Waltz
Well-known member
I don't understand all this worry about production costs. If Olympus is smart they'll sell these camera's and lenses relatively cheap. It's not bad business to take a lose on a product, esp. if you're trying to get a large user base. Besides they can make up the cost difference with all the point and shoots that they make.
Theodore80476
Leading Member
I think this is going to be the case regardless, as anybody with an investment of lenses, isn't going to sell it all and go to Oly, on a new unproven system.
I'd like 14mm wide prime, but it's a very niche market for WA under say 24mm, (35mm equiv) so chances are the Olydak isn't going to offer this anytime soon.
I would be very pleased if Oly could pull this off for $1600, it would force some downward price pressure on C&N, but they both have MUCH deeper pockets than Oly does, if this works and is a huge hit, C&N will jump on the bone as well.
Now now my good man, don't twist my words, the company is in business to make money, not friends, if a company has something that is unique, it can and will charge a premium for it, and people will pay for it. I'm not talking 5k, but around 2K with a consumer lens.I see. Investors value their money, but purchasers only care about
features... UH, huh. What have you ever sold my friend?
I don't know if the Exx series really had a huge impact on the interchangeable lens systems, as that the very selling point of DSLRs is the ability to change lenses. I know this isn't really the case in the
The amount of pixels isn't as important as the size of them, this would be the one hitch of using such a small sensor as a base for an entire system. The smaller the pixels get, generally the more noise you get. Canon pulled of a major feat with the D60 by keeping noise down, mind you there is no ISO 1600 as on the D30, if it was not feasible with the next gen, they could just change the size of the CMOS, this obviously wouldn't be an option for the OlyDak.
But it' won't be a factor of four cheaper, as there is more involved then "just glass" also keep in mind that Canon sells these SAME EXACT lenses for their film cameras, and thus has a market probably 100x times larger then this new system will so the savings in quantity, and development, would dwarf any such offerings from OlyDak
Of course it will, but my "crystalball" tells me $1.8-2K, Maybe $1600, if it's stripped and you need to buy things like RAW convertor software, good rechargeable batteries, etc, and at $1600, it won't come with a lens.I guarantee you $1600 vs. $2K will put lights in people's
eyes. Especially if the other lenses released sell for less than
35mm counterparts. That doesn't necessarily make them cheap. Have
you priced 35mm lenses? Sheesh.
The other thing to consider is that by the time the OlyDak is actually available to buy, the D60/D100/S2 might be available in quantities, thus forcing the actual street price to about 1900 or so street pricing.
--
Theo
Where are we going?!!?....and what am I doing in this handbasket??!!
This camera will be around $1600, including a lens (one of five lenses). Last I heard, Olympus was having trouble getting third party commitment, which they believe is neccessary for the success of the system, and is why the camera has been delayed. You can read more in the link below, and I recommend doing a search for "Olympus and Kodak" in the news search engine.
http://www.dpreview.com/news/0104/01042701newolykodakslr.asp
If the camera is as described, I will most likely be buying one.
--
dgrogers
http://www.pbase.com/drog
http://www.dpreview.com/news/0105/01050101olympususconcept.asp
This camera has basically been anounced.
--
dgrogers
http://www.pbase.com/drog
This camera has basically been anounced.
--
dgrogers
http://www.pbase.com/drog
Theodore80476
Leading Member
I stand corrected, thanks for the link.
I will be simply amazed if they can pull this off. I don't know if I would jump in and buy one, but it should be worth a look if it does what they say, at the price they are quoting.
Hopefully no major achilles as well. (Noise, Non user servicable firmware, etc)
--
Theo
Where are we going?!!?....and what am I doing in this handbasket??!!
mike veglia
Well-known member
You're right. Exactly why I never gave up using Olympus OM gear for 35mm. Aside from Leica and Contax, they had no competitors ;-)
(Hint, what did NASA and Nat Geo use for 35mm work prior to the days of AF???)
Mike Veglia
http://www.motorsportvisions.com
Ripper103348
Well-known member
R&D cost is more the issue. Oly will have to spend a lot of R&D dollars
a DLSR of the type we've been discussing. That cost is something that's
passed right along to the consumer.
I'm also baffled as to why some people seem to think that Oly
is going to sell the DSLR and lenses (relatively) inexpensively.
There's no evidence to suggest that and in fact, there's plenty of evidence that Oly would charge what the market will bear (as
witnessed by the relatively high cost of E-xx series accessories), rather than have the DSLR as a loss leader.
What I think could happen, though, is Oly making the camera body a loss leader so that they can make the money on accessory sales. Now that's not a good strategy if there is 3rd party support
-T
J
JamesM
Guest
Hi Cory,
Personally, I think it is not a good idea to depend on Microdrives. They break way too easilly. If Oly has a new standard that will beat out CF, so be it.
-JM
http://www.MasterworkPhotography.com
Personally, I think it is not a good idea to depend on Microdrives. They break way too easilly. If Oly has a new standard that will beat out CF, so be it.
-JM
--
http://www.MasterworkPhotography.com
W
Walter Freiberger
Guest
There are speculations that Nikon will come out with a whole line of digital intended lenses. Like a 13-85, 15-100 and so on.
Can't find this thread for the moment.
Walter
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