Price rise threats....

William Curtindale said:

I don't know how many people have looked at what has happened to the
long term investments lately but it's hard to be too optimistic.
IMHO, we should be very cautious and prepared to get through the next
couple years without too much personal damage.

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Actually I'm ahead, and positioned to more than likely stay that way. My investments are growing still. Not by the amount people got out of the stock market for a while, but then I still have it all and they don't.

And I owe nothing. No loans, no mortgage, just the monthly living expense. About the right place to be as I turn 65 this year. Though I wish my retirement investments were much much bigger.

What I like is the massive destruction of farmland and natural systems in my area got stopped dead in it's tracks at least briefly. And I do hope the "developers" loose everything. Bring them down closer to my level. There are too many rich folks still.

Walt

Slightly ironic , don't you think , seeing that the present world-wide recession is mainly due to American Bankers & their handling of the housing sub-prime market ?

Keith-C

antoineb said:

So if there is any logic, UK prices should go up a fair amount, while
Euro prices could actually come down.

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Correct. The Pound has lost about 35% of it's value against a basket of currencies in the last few months - the Euro has strengthened. The markets don't like the fact that the crazy British government has decided to borrow and spend its way out of this recession, and they're right not to like it. The country is going to end up with a vast national debt and the only way out will be to print money - hence Sterling is being marked down.

However, this doesn't necessarily mean that import prices will go up. As has been remarked on before the prices of products in different countries can't be calculated by straight exchange rate calculations. There's a lot more that goes into it than that. It depends on how much people are willing to pay, the profit margin, etc, etc. Manufacturers will sometimes sell at a loss just to keep market share, also.

I personally don't expect DSLR prices to go up even in the UK. There's too much genuine competition in this market for that to happen.

From London Camera Exchange website...

• SONY HAVE INCREASED PRICES ACROSS THE ENTIRE ALPHA RANGE - WE STILL HAVE SOME STOCK AT PRE - INCREASE PRICES *

but they don't specify by how much.
--
Olympus C2100UZ, Minolta 7D, Sony A200

I think that it is scandalous to suggest that the British Government will end up printing money - this Government in particular has been very good at clearing National Debt in the past few years.

The British took on enormous debt because of the second world war which was not really of their choosing & we deserve a bit more sympathy over this.

The main reason that foreign markets have reacted adversely in the current situation is not primarily due to the Government borrowing money but because they have drastically lowered interest rates making investment in Britain less advantageous.

I think that other countries have not yet fully understood the trouble that they are in & we will see further changes in the next few months. Italy , Spain & Greece in particular are going to affect the value of the Euro when their financial problems become more obvious so if I lived in the Euro zone I would act quickly to take advantage of the current position before it's too late.

Keith-C

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1000&message=30585224

Keith-C

KEITH-C said:

I think that it is scandalous to suggest that the British Government
will end up printing money - this Government in particular has been
very good at clearing National Debt in the past few years.

The British took on enormous debt because of the second world war
which was not really of their choosing & we deserve a bit more
sympathy over this.

The main reason that foreign markets have reacted adversely in the
current situation is not primarily due to the Government borrowing
money but because they have drastically lowered interest rates making
investment in Britain less advantageous.

I think that other countries have not yet fully understood the
trouble that they are in & we will see further changes in the next
few months. Italy , Spain & Greece in particular are going to affect
the value of the Euro when their financial problems become more
obvious so if I lived in the Euro zone I would act quickly to take
advantage of the current position before it's too late.

Keith-C

Click to expand...

Keith,

I suppose "good at clearing National Debt" is a relative term.

A link detailing "repayment" of war debt: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/4757181.stm

--
Regards,
Graham

'I photograph to find out what something will look like photographed.' -Garry Winogrand

Graham Best said:

I suppose "good at clearing National Debt" is a relative term.

A link detailing "repayment" of war debt:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/4757181.stm

Click to expand...

Well from that article it seems we are owed more than we owe from WWI.

The interesting thing that is glossed over in that article are what happened after WWII during Atlee's govt regarding negotiations with the US.

From the article "The most important condition was sterling being made convertible [to dollars]. Everyone simply changed their pounds for dollars. [Loans were] eaten up by a flight from sterling. "

That basically wrecked the govts finances.

Dave

Well if for any reason you were refering to me ... or if you weren't here are some comments.

During the day I work in one sect realestate industry (insurance). I've been laid off and rehired. I've survived 23 rounds of layoffs in total. 75% of our workforce has been laid off. I was on the front lines of this downturn before any one else even knew it was happening, and since realestate (loans included), is one of the biggest driving forces for our economy world wide, I knew something bad was coming.

Yet we've bottomed out now here in the industry. And its all up hill from here, a slow climb for sure but again, I am on the front line and I see where it is all going. What all the world is experiencing is only the aftershocks of what started in the mortgage industry back in early 2006. Those aftershocks can only last so long. And they will cease to be so frequent as soon as lenders start putting money back on the market, which will probably be the 3rd or last quarter of this year.

After being through it all, 6-8 months down the road isn't much longer to wait. Thats why I don't necessarily agree it is going to be some massive catastrophe, I believe a lot of it is media hype (sensationalism sells), but also that a real downturn has obviously occured (I am not blind to that at all). Other unforseen events could be on the way, yet since the majority of the $ on this planet comes from banks... I doubt they could be nearly as bad.

The world will recover as soon as the banks get done sweeping the floors and learning from their greedy mistakes that sent our world economy reeling. And that could be as early as this year. We will survive, we will move on. The photo industry has barely taken a hit in comparison to the market I am in.

C
--
http://www.CarlGarrardPhotography.com

cgarrard said:

Well if for any reason you were refering to me ... or if you weren't
here are some comments.

During the day I work in one sect realestate industry (insurance).
I've been laid off and rehired. I've survived 23 rounds of layoffs in
total. 75% of our workforce has been laid off. I was on the front
lines of this downturn before any one else even knew it was
happening, and since realestate (loans included), is one of the
biggest driving forces for our economy world wide, I knew something
bad was coming.

Yet we've bottomed out now here in the industry. And its all up hill
from here, a slow climb for sure but again, I am on the front line
and I see where it is all going. What all the world is experiencing
is only the aftershocks of what started in the mortgage industry back
in early 2006. Those aftershocks can only last so long. And they will
cease to be so frequent as soon as lenders start putting money back
on the market, which will probably be the 3rd or last quarter of this
year.

After being through it all, 6-8 months down the road isn't much
longer to wait. Thats why I don't necessarily agree it is going to be
some massive catastrophe, I believe a lot of it is media hype
(sensationalism sells), but also that a real downturn has obviously
occured (I am not blind to that at all). Other unforseen events could
be on the way, yet since the majority of the $ on this planet comes
from banks... I doubt they could be nearly as bad.

The world will recover as soon as the banks get done sweeping the
floors and learning from their greedy mistakes that sent our world
economy reeling. And that could be as early as this year. We will
survive, we will move on. The photo industry has barely taken a hit
in comparison to the market I am in.

C
--
http://www.CarlGarrardPhotography.com

Click to expand...

Nice to hear that opinion. I am in law school for the next 2.5 years, so the outside economy does not impact me... I just want it to stabilize by the time I graduate.

I have long suspected that there was a hint of sensationalism in the news...

But I was a little surprised at what banks were doing, in that I always thought they would be the most conservative in order to maintain stability. Hopefully they will go back to that.

--
Gear:

A700, Sigma 10-20, Tamron 28-75, Beercan, 50 f/1.7, 85 f/1.4 G, Tamron 90mm Macro, Minolta 135mm 2.8, 200mm 2.8, 3600

KEITH-C said:

This could not have happened at a worst time for Sony's launch of the
A900.

Click to expand...

The A900 is likely the least important digital camera product to Sony from a commercial point of view.

Sony clearly is going through a major adjustment to economic conditions and the performace of its different businesses. I doubt that they will drop out of DSLR's. But they could reduce staff and aim for a slower rate of product introduction. Of course the existing products are already well beyond what the vast majority of photographers have any real need for in any case.
--
David Jacobson
http://www.pbase.com/dnjake

cgarrard said:

Thats why I don't necessarily agree it is going to be
some massive catastrophe, I believe a lot of it is media hype
(sensationalism sells), but also that a real downturn has obviously
occured (I am not blind to that at all).

Click to expand...

Yes, I think, as usual, a whole lot of it is media hype but , unlike in some other cases I can think of, this one is not just the media. You had President Bush, President Clinton, Paulson, Bernanke, just about every political leader of both parties, just about everyone in the financial world, just about everyone in the business world, leaders of most countries around the world, etc., etc., etc. bluntly warning that we were near catastrophe. When it is just the media or just some in one political party then it is easier to say this is all a lot of hype. It gets harder when everyone is running around with their hair on fire. I hope it all turns out to be overblown and in several months we can all sort of laugh about it. Of course, it will be hard to laugh about the $7 trillion of lost wealth since that isn't likely to be coming back anytime soon. Lost retirement savings and so on. At some point it no longer matters whether it is hype or not since the result is that many people have lost a lot (savings, jobs, etc.).

--
Henry Richardson
http://www.bakubo.com

MrScary said:

UNFORTUNATLY! We Be SHEEP...BAaaaaaaaaa!

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Speak for yourself. I don't jump on stuff just because it is the current hot thing. I decide whether I reall want something and then decide how much I am willing to pay it. If the price is above that then I don't get it. Often by waiting a bit and/or shopping around I can get a better price.

--
Henry Richardson
http://www.bakubo.com

KEITH-C said:

I think that it is scandalous to suggest that the British Government
will end up printing money - this Government in particular has been
very good at clearing National Debt in the past few years.

The British took on enormous debt because of the second world war
which was not really of their choosing & we deserve a bit more
sympathy over this.

Click to expand...

You're not an economist - I am. Almost everything in your post is inaccurate and it would take to long to explain. Suffice it so that this govt has drastically increased the National Debt and it is ALREADY printing money - or quantitative easing as the euphemism is. Wakey wakey.

The lower interest rates have had some effect on the value of Sterling but probably not much. Sterling was falling even before interest rates were lowered. It's mainly fear of the govt's ill-advised reflationary measures that are to blame.

ThinCat said:

You're not an economist - I am. Almost everything in your post is
inaccurate and it would take to long to explain. Suffice it so that
this govt has drastically increased the National Debt and it is
ALREADY printing money - or quantitative easing as the euphemism is.
Wakey wakey.

The lower interest rates have had some effect on the value of
Sterling but probably not much. Sterling was falling even before
interest rates were lowered. It's mainly fear of the govt's
ill-advised reflationary measures that are to blame.

Click to expand...

Well you can add another half % cut leaving uk interest rates at 1.5%, their lowest in history..(and we mean 100's of years!)

But it won't make a damn bit of difference, this is a depression (recession is too timid a word)...

The UK strategy is to "debt" their way out of it...which won't work

Over in Eire, where I am..their strategy was to increase taxes and put VAT up to a nasty 21.5%....which won't work either..

As the £ is sure to drop even lower v the Euro..anyone with any sense is going to buy from the UK via internet (in the euro zone)..but that won't help the local economies much..

Heads you lose, tails you lose ;-)

Get ready for a naff economy for the next 3 years..probably take 7-10 to get it back to decent levels..

Barry Fitzgerald said:

ThinCat said:

You're not an economist - I am. Almost everything in your post is
inaccurate and it would take to long to explain. Suffice it so that
this govt has drastically increased the National Debt and it is
ALREADY printing money - or quantitative easing as the euphemism is.
Wakey wakey.

The lower interest rates have had some effect on the value of
Sterling but probably not much. Sterling was falling even before
interest rates were lowered. It's mainly fear of the govt's
ill-advised reflationary measures that are to blame.

Click to expand...

Well you can add another half % cut leaving uk interest rates at
1.5%, their lowest in history..(and we mean 100's of years!)

But it won't make a damn bit of difference, this is a depression
(recession is too timid a word)...

The UK strategy is to "debt" their way out of it...which won't work

Click to expand...

Well for a different opinion and a suggestion as to why it might work and migh be a good idea read this:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article5469589.ece

Yesterday I received a letter from my bank stating they were passing on the last rate cut in full on my tracker mortgage so I now pay 2.34% and my payments have plummeted. My job is paradoxically in the current climate seemingly more secure now than at any time in the past few years (touch wood) so I have not altered my spending to be reckless.

So I am not being imprudent but today I have just taken advantage of Jessops sale to bag a 75-300 G lens for £450 as my birthday present and at Christmas I went for the 500mm F8 mirror.

The purchase of the 75-300 G was in part down to this thread and the threat of increased prices later in the year as I changed my plans from a film scanner to the lens but also because of the price. At £450 it was too good a deal to miss. Were it at £560 (e.g. warehouse express) or higher (most other places) I'd have gone with the scanner.

So I bet I wouldn't be the only one put off by a price increase from Sony.

Member said:

Over in Eire, where I am..their strategy was to increase taxes and
put VAT up to a nasty 21.5%....which won't work either..

As the £ is sure to drop even lower v the Euro..anyone with any sense
is going to buy from the UK via internet (in the euro zone)..but that
won't help the local economies much..

Heads you lose, tails you lose ;-)

Click to expand...

Oh I dunno. I think I was a winner today .

Only need a macro and a better standard zoom to complete my lens collection now!

Dave

Barry Fitzgerald said:

Well you can add another half % cut leaving uk interest rates at
1.5%, their lowest in history..(and we mean 100's of years!)

But it won't make a damn bit of difference, this is a depression
(recession is too timid a word)...

The UK strategy is to "debt" their way out of it...which won't work
Over in Eire, where I am..their strategy was to increase taxes and
put VAT up to a nasty 21.5%....which won't work either..

As the £ is sure to drop even lower v the Euro..anyone with any sense
is going to buy from the UK via internet (in the euro zone)..but that
won't help the local economies much..

Heads you lose, tails you lose ;-)

Click to expand...

The problem you've got in Ireland is that you're in the Euro and therefore have no control over your own interest rates. So for the last several years your interest rates have been much too low (about 4%) whereas the neutral interest rate was 7%. So you've got an even bigger asset price bubble than we've got in the UK. (The one and only good thing that the eejit Gordon Brown has done for our economy is to keep us out of the Euro.) When you can't control your interest rates hiking taxes and VAT are all you can do really - but like you say it won't work.

Unfortunately for the UK, while we have control of our interest rates, they're actually almost irrelevant now. They can go to zero and it won't free up credit because the only money around is the stuff the govt "magic'ed" up to lend to the banks (as 12% preference shares) and they're not going to lend that out at any sensible rate - they can't anyway because they need the liquidity. The govt can't borrow because no one will lend to them (they have the worst CDS rating in the developed world). So it just looks like they're just going to have to print money and flog gilts at attractive prices (if they can). It might possibly get them out of the current crisis but it's just creating another one down the line. The last time we were in a mess like this (strangely under another Labour govt) the IMF had to bail us out and the chancellor resigned. Nowadays the IMF actually can't afford to bail us out (they simply don't have enough money) and no one in this current govt knows the meaning of the word resign.

I'm not sure about the Pound dropping lower against the Euro. It's gone up 10% in recent days and the signs are that the Euro-zone is in trouble too - the big players are OK'ish like France and Germany but Spain and Italy are disaster zones.

Kaletsky doesn't know what he's talking about. The borrow and spend path will lead to inflation problems down the line. Of course a nice dose of inflation is a quick way out of an asset price bubble but it sows the seeds for many more problems in the future. Those who are complaining about the low interest rate they get on their savings will soon realise that that is the least of their problems. Currently we're moving into deflation so a zero interest rate on savings is not such a bad deal. When SuperGord is finished though we'll have nasty inflation (5% or more) AND low interest rates - it's called stagflation and that's where we're headed.

ThinCat said:

I'm not sure about the Pound dropping lower against the Euro. It's
gone up 10% in recent days and the signs are that the Euro-zone is in
trouble too - the big players are OK'ish like France and Germany but
Spain and Italy are disaster zones.

Click to expand...

Well with the recent UK int rate cut..the £ will probably take a dive again..

ThinCat said:

Unfortunately for the UK, while we have control of our interest
rates, they're actually almost irrelevant now. They can go to zero
and it won't free up credit because the only money around is the
stuff the govt "magic'ed" up to lend to the banks (as 12% preference
shares) and they're not going to lend that out at any sensible rate -
they can't anyway because they need the liquidity.

Click to expand...

If Interests rates go to zero it may prompt people to invest it elsewhere in things like property or even shares. It may also prompt people to spend in other ways as saving cash is effectively throwing money away with savings rates after tax effectively below inflation.

ThinCat said:

The govt can't
borrow because no one will lend to them (they have the worst CDS
rating in the developed world). So it just looks like they're just
going to have to print money and flog gilts at attractive prices (if
they can).

Click to expand...

Well according to the BBC today if the govt does anything along these lines it won't be simply printing money. Rather it will write cheques for banks in exchange for assets such as cooperate investments. Not quite the same thing.

ThinCat said:

It might possibly get them out of the current crisis but
it's just creating another one down the line. The last time we were
in a mess like this (strangely under another Labour govt) the IMF had
to bail us out and the chancellor resigned. Nowadays the IMF actually
can't afford to bail us out (they simply don't have enough money) and
no one in this current govt knows the meaning of the word resign.

Click to expand...

With rates so low banks can't earn good risk free rates of return by depositing with the govt. They will have to look elsewhere which in theory means trying to make money by lending in instead of hanging on to the cash.

ThinCat said:

I'm not sure about the Pound dropping lower against the Euro. It's
gone up 10% in recent days and the signs are that the Euro-zone is in
trouble too - the big players are OK'ish like France and Germany but
Spain and Italy are disaster zones.

Click to expand...

The plans in the USA seem to mirror what the UK govt is doing only on a much bigger scale. So we will have to wait and see who is right. The "batten down the hatches approach" of the conservative opposition or the interventionist approach of the US and UK governments.

Dave