Right now it's telling us the big 3 are very split in what that
market point is.
That's an understatement. From a design standpoint you have to have a target customer and use well in mind. What we've seen from the beginning of digital but don't always discuss is that each of the camera makers has had a somewhat different take on what is important and who will use their product. As I've written elsewhere, I think this is going to get worse, as some companies are mistakenly trying to use technology to artificially create new segments. The problem is that USE always drives segments; technology is only a catalyst.
1) Canon is saying it's lots of pixels in a cheap body with LV and
Video, but not much meat to the feature set.
Canon's philosophy from day one has been pixels, and to a lesser degree image quality. Even at the high end (original 1Ds, for example), it took a long time to get to lithium batteries and other things that I think a truly pro camera required.
2) Nikon is saying it's few pixels, LV and a real solid body, and a
feature set of things that are needed (flash, GPS, tank build)
Nikon's philosophy has been improvement the photography-related technology (AF, metering, flash, etc.). Despite the D3/D300/D700, I'm still not 100% convinced that Nikon fully understands or pursues "ultimate image quality." Their choices for the AA filter, default sharpening, default color, and a host of other pieces are not optimal, and have NEVER been.
3) Sony is saying it's high pixels in a traditional body (huge View
finder, no LV, no Video), but giving you stabilization to work with
Primes that target users can't get stabilized in other brands
(portrait, landscape type lenses).
Sony's philosophy is hard to pin down. The cameras have been all over the place, IMHO. I suspect it is a resource problem, not a targeting problem. They're trying to do a lot in a short amount of time with I think fewer design/engineer resources, and when that happens things get left out and easy optimizations take precedence over difficult ones.
4) Pentax is saying "damn we need to do something"
The Hoya takeover appears to have done what I thought it would: stall a generation of product. Unfortunately, that's not a good thing when the market is moving so rapidly.
If your going to do video, get a real video camera.
I'm going to disagree with you. But I'm going to agree that the choices so far seem really problematic. Let's start with Nikon: adding video to a truly consumer camera seems likely to stick. The problem is that Nikon's implementation isn't good enough. The consumer wants "automatic with overrides." The D90 is automatic with overrides on the still end, but "mostly manual" on the video end. There's a dissonance between the level of the video and still features.
The 5DII is a little better. Here we have essentially the highest possible image quality for stills at the moment, coupled with the highest possible image quality for video (yes, I know that better video is possible, but in terms of what we normally mean by "video," 1080P is the highest ubiquitous format). What strikes me is the compromises in the camera (shutter, AF, auto gain for sound, etc.). There's a little too much "pushing pixels" that now doesn't seem to match up with the rest of the capabilities. It's a little too much like a 4 liter V8 in a compact car.
I have to wonder
how well the Canon Video camera that takes EOS lenses has sold over
the years.
Quite well, actually. The difference here is like the D90 (and the Red): the larger sensor provides a different (and to many preferred) "look" than the small sensored video cameras we've had to date.
The Sony is also bound to get in a price war with Canon at some point
too.
Actually, Canon is the instigator of most of the digital price wars. They've been consistently taking lower product margins on everything except the 1D products in order to press volume and hold market share. The pricing of the 5DII looks no different, as it undercuts Sony just as the Sony comes to market (and has features the Sony doesn't have).
And I'm pretty sure Sony will win on getting the price lowest.
Not sure why you say this. I'd say the opposite. First, ask yourself why the 5DII uses many of the same parts as the 5D? When you play price pressure games parts volume starts to come into play. Canon has more ability to spread this across multiple products than Sony right now.
Canon had the opportunity to show their cards last, so they went with
a lower price.
Actually, Canon was second. Sony made a big (and classic) mistake by pre-announcing the A900, including price point. That gave everyone else a clear target. We've yet to hear from Nikon, Pentax/Samsung, and possibly one other FX producer, but the target is clear: match or beat 20mp, video, capable camera at US$2699 or better.
Though it's not like 40D/50D has lowered D300 pricing,
True, but I've always said that the customer target was different for those products.
and the 40D and 50D never pulled the A700 price down either.
The A700 never really had any substantial volume. I have no idea why Sony decided to keep volume low and price high. This says to me that they considered it more a placeholder than one of their more important targets.
--
Thom Hogan
author, Complete Guides to Nikon bodies (18 and counting)
http://www.bythom.com