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roweraay said:
The existing user base of the "giants", who bought FF products at
$8000 and $5000 etc. (only considering products introduced over the
past one year) would be pulling their hair out, if the "giants" come
out with such a strategy.
Click to expand...
If Sony were to do this, they would be marketing an IQ machine; not a pro camera. It would be tomorrow's Canon 5D - the price performer in the IQ department. The pros who spent $5-8K on a FF body likely wouldn't be happy with what a $2K camera could do for their work and as they amortize the costs as business expenses, aren't going to stay up at night about it.
roweraay said:
Also, unlike Sony, who literally makes every single digital component
in a dSLR, including sensors, memory, buffers, processors, batteries
and literally anything else you can think of, can control their
costs very efficiently, and introduce a product at a keen pricing and
still make a profit - something a competitor like Nikon or even
Canon, simply cannot do.
Click to expand...
In some ways, Sony is also at a distinct disadvantage in that they have to amortize their costs over a much smaller number of units (for the time being) ... in sensors, they do that well by selling to the competition. Parts uniquely designed for a Sony camera ultimately sell in fewer quantities. When you factor in the r&d, the tooling and production costs and divide by the number of units that will be manufactured, it's hard to imagine Sony has a cost advantage at this time. A big advantage over KM, I think.
  • Dennis
--
Gallery at http://kingofthebeasts.smugmug.com
 
My money is on all sony's cameras either from now on or in the next 18 months will be full frame cameras. Sony makes chips, once the flagship is out and in regular production (it should be now) using that sensor with diferent pixel counts and slower processigng for the cheaper cameras will be easy and inexpensive. I read a lot about 4/3's and APS-C and also that prosumerers arent as good because of sensor size. FF is the logical next step for Sony, if all their cameras are FF in their line they will eclipse all the other brands and the image quality will go up considerably over APS-C and 4/3'rs also Sony isn't putting any new DT lenses out they all seem to be FF. I think their commitment to SLRs is strong and their commitment to APC-s is less so.
--
F717 (Legendary)
A200 (what a fantastic machine)
 
Chad Marek said:
A Sony "gamechanger" will NOT be a demonstration on how cheap they
can make their premere, gaze-with-awe-at-Sony's-technical-prowess
camera.
Click to expand...
One (very good) possibility is that the price is unreasonable - these "I was told by my Sony sales rep" stories tend to be worth the cost of the paper they're written on. The other possibility is that the 'flagship' is really nothing special ... just a cheap camera with a 25MP FF sensor.

There have been a couple reports showing a FF flagship featuring a pentamirror VF and "fast AF" live view. This camera might be little more than a big A350.
Chad Marek said:
If I were to see a Nikon professional FF camera or a Canon 1D series
camera come out at this price point, I would ask "what major
comprimises did they make to meet that price point?" This is NOT the
question you want pleople like me asking when looking for a camera.
Click to expand...
Why not ? It may simply not be the camera for "people like you" and that's fine. If it's a $2000 IQ machine that picks up where the 5D left off, so be it. (The Canon 5D gets knocked for being a compromise camera that's not really a 'pro' camera, but it seems to have sold well).
Chad Marek said:
The sales volume oif a $3500 camera (even if sold at $2k) will not be
large enough to have an impact on their position in the marketplace.
Click to expand...
That's tough to bet on. Sony would sell some $3500 cameras. They'd sell a lot more $2000 cameras. Forget about a "loss leader" and instead assume it was designed to sell at $2000 and makes a profit. If either one makes a profit but one wins more market share and drags in more sales of CZ lenses ... I wouldn't bet one way or the other. (I would have bet on a $3500 camera until I started seeing those "fast AF" predictions).
Chad Marek said:
Besides, I think most here are forgetting the source.
Click to expand...
Sony won't underprice. If it's $2000 then it's a $2000 camera, not a $3500 camera sold as a loss leader.
  • Dennis
--
Gallery at http://kingofthebeasts.smugmug.com
 
Glenn said:
My money is on all sony's cameras either from now on or in the next
18 months will be full frame cameras. Sony makes chips, once the
flagship is out and in regular production (it should be now) using
that sensor with diferent pixel counts and slower processigng for the
cheaper cameras will be easy and inexpensive. I read a lot about
4/3's and APS-C and also that prosumerers arent as good because of
sensor size. FF is the logical next step for Sony, if all their
cameras are FF in their line they will eclipse all the other brands
and the image quality will go up considerably over APS-C and 4/3'rs
also Sony isn't putting any new DT lenses out they all seem to be FF.
I think their commitment to SLRs is strong and their commitment to
APC-s is less so.
Click to expand...
That's one of the weirder predictions I've seen :)

Sony's commitment is to selling cameras and making money. Until they can sell a $500 entry level DSLR with a FF sensor at a profit, they'll sell $500 entry level DSLRs with an APS-C sensor. (And

Sony, Canon, Nikon & Pentax will all be making APS-C cameras for a good many years.
  • Dennis
--
Gallery at http://kingofthebeasts.smugmug.com
 
The "reports" of a pentamirror in the flagship, was as relevant as the Fresh water island, available for sale for a dollar, in the heart of the sandy desert in Saudi Arabia.

I am amazed at the pure erudition such "reports" purport to project.
Dennis said:
It would be an interesting approach for Sony, and given a few recent
reports of the 'flagship' being a pentamirror 'fast AF' design, they
might pull it off.
Click to expand...
 
roweraay said:
The "reports" of a pentamirror in the flagship, was as relevant as
the Fresh water island, available for sale for a dollar, in the heart
of the sandy desert in Saudi Arabia.

I am amazed at the pure erudition such "reports" purport to project.
Click to expand...
It's all internet noise until we hear from Sony. Including this sub-$2000 report we're all discussing. Pentamirror, sub-$2000 price ... all possibilities, but none of which pay to give much credence to.
  • Dennis
--
Gallery at http://kingofthebeasts.smugmug.com
 
Dennis said:
In some ways, Sony is also at a distinct disadvantage in that they
have to amortize their costs over a much smaller number of units (for
the time being) ... in sensors, they do that well by selling to the
competition. Parts uniquely designed for a Sony camera ultimately
sell in fewer quantities. When you factor in the r&d, the tooling
and production costs and divide by the number of units that will be
manufactured, it's hard to imagine Sony has a cost advantage at this
time. A big advantage over KM, I think.
  • Dennis
Click to expand...
A FF camera body at around 3000$ will out sell the 5000/8000$ body by a large margin. Especially if the pixel counts is higher and the Zeiss lenses can be used on it.

The majority of the 1ds3 owners, do not use more than 10% of all the features on that camera and they got it just for the resolution. The 1dses are mostly used in a very safe environment and are not tampered like they are in war zone, since they are mostly used in studio and fashion/advertising productions, where all the equipment is pampered by multi assistants. The ruggedness of the body and the weather sealing is just a plus that is welcome after you pay 8k, but the majority of users can do well without and they will not miss it a bit on a 3000$ body.

Canon will be a bit between a rock and an hard place once a 24mp competitor at 3000$ will be out, because it will out-resolve and may deliver better image quality of their current 8k camera, and will put canon on making and hard decision on how many mp the next 5d will have, anything more than 17 will take sales away from the 8k brick. Probably the next 5d MP count has already been decided, but canon wold have surely be happier without a FF from sony coming to life.

BTW. It is not that the d3 and 1ds3 are sold by the hundred of thousands per month. More like the tenth of thousands per month and some months they may not even get there.
 
2000$ = 1280€
but 2000$ in the usa will be 2000€ in europe
adding vat 20% = 2400 €
when the A900 cotsts 1300€ + 21% vat = + - 1600 € i buy it + cz 24-70mm.
i will have a look at the photokina in september .
guido
 
The other possibility you did not touch on, is that maybe the Flagship, might actually be a weather-sealed, 24.6MP Full-frame camera with a 100% Penta-prism viewfinder, at the $2000 pricepoint - something you are not factoring into the thinking process, since you are basing all your calculations on what has been dished out to the Canonites and Nikonians to date, by those manufacturers.
Dennis said:
The other possibility is that the
'flagship' is really nothing special ... just a cheap camera with a
25MP FF sensor.

There have been a couple reports showing a FF flagship featuring a
pentamirror VF and "fast AF" live view. This camera might be little
more than a big A350.
Click to expand...
 
Please note that when I state "dished out to the Canonites and the Nikonians to date by those manufacturers", I am not stating that those companies are doing such pricing strategies out of malice to the users or out of a desire to squeeze out a larger profit from the "exclusivity".

What I am saying is that those companies (Nikon mainly and Canon to a lesser extent) don't have the capability to fine-control the pricing of the components that go into the Digital-SLR, since they have to source those components from electronic giants like Sony, Panasonic and Samsung. Sony makes them in-house and they can raid their internal parts-bin to put together the electronic innards (the parts that cost the most) of the DIGITAL-SLR, for the most part.

Talking about the pentaprism and a metal body, what in your mind, would a Film camera that come with a metal body and a 100% PentaPrism VF (but without the major electronics that a digital SLR has), cost ? A pittance, in the larger scheme of things, I bet.
roweraay said:
Dennis said:
The other possibility is that the
'flagship' is really nothing special ... just a cheap camera with a
25MP FF sensor.

There have been a couple reports showing a FF flagship featuring a
pentamirror VF and "fast AF" live view. This camera might be little
more than a big A350.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
If this FF camera indeed comes out around $2000, it would be very tempting. I recently purchased an A700 betting that the A900 would end up more expensive than $2000.

However, there is one issue. Sony needs to upgrade the 24-105 3.5-4.5 lens, possibly offer a G or CZ equivalent of this lens, with perhaps the focal length lengthened to 120, for those that want a high quality general purpose lens without spending $1700 for the CZ 24-70 2.8. I say this because in photographic tests that were posted on this forum at the time the CZ16-80 lens came out for the cropped sensor cameras, there were many posts of images from the 24-105 showing it softer than the new CZ16-80 and also the KM 28-75 F2.8.

Other than this, I wouldn't see a need for me to upgrade equipment, should I want to purchase the FF camera. I already decided to get the 56 replacement flash when it comes out.

Fred
--
MinoltaMan78 now SonyAlphaMan07

 
roweraay said:
The other possibility you did not touch on, is that maybe the
Flagship, might actually be a weather-sealed, 24.6MP Full-frame
camera with a 100% Penta-prism viewfinder, at the $2000 pricepoint -
something you are not factoring into the thinking process, since you
are basing all your calculations on what has been dished out to the
Canonites and Nikonians to date, by those manufacturers.
Click to expand...
Sorry, I don't see that as a viable possibility. The A700 is still $1399 (discounted here & there, sure). It's not weather-sealed, has a much smaller VF and a smaller sensor.

Rather than a 'cheapie' FF, if Sony were to do a rugged FF, I have to believe it would be > $2000 and/or compromise drastically on performance specs that pros looking for a rugged, weather-sealed camera would expect (like frame rates).

I know Sony can make (some) more parts in-house than C/N. They also sell fewer units than C/N. The cost to develop a part gets divided out over fewer units.

I won't be surprised to see a $3000-$4000 flagship that's a very capably, pro-spec'd camera.

I won't be surprised to see a $2000 flagship that's a 5D-class not-really-pro camera emphasizing IQ and low cost.

I would be very surprised to see a camera that looks significantly better than the competition when it comes to what-you-get-for-your-money. (i.e. anything close to a professional body for $2000 that might reflect some as-yet hidden efficiencies of doing lots of stuff in-house). We don't see it in TVs, in digicams, in camcorders or anywhere else in the Sony product line. Typically, the Sony offerings are slightly (but not significantly) worse than the competition when it comes to price-performance ratio, but usually offering something unique enough to appeal to consumers anyway.
  • Dennis
--
Gallery at http://kingofthebeasts.smugmug.com
 
Dennis said:
I won't be surprised to see a $2000 flagship that's a 5D-class
not-really-pro camera emphasizing IQ and low cost.
Click to expand...
I just hope that wouldn't be called the "flagship". :-) Sounds more like a PT boat.

It's also a bummer that it leaves little room for a low-MP FF version. It'd have to be $1500, which would mean all future APS models would have to be under $1000.

Dunno...seems unlikely.

Greg
 
Dennis said:
Sorry, I don't see that as a viable possibility. The A700 is still
$1399 (discounted here & there, sure). It's not weather-sealed, has
a much smaller VF and a smaller sensor.
Click to expand...
Actually the A700 is weather-sealed, has a penta-prism viewfinder and I bought mine for $839 (BB blowout).
Dennis said:
I know Sony can make (some) more parts in-house than C/N. They also
sell fewer units than C/N. The cost to develop a part gets divided
out over fewer units.
Click to expand...
They already make MOST of the electronic innards of a dSLR inhouse, including LCDs, memory, sensors, buffers etc. The same parts, flow down to Canon, Nikon, Pentax and a host of other customers, to be added into their cameras. When Sony did a battery recall, it was eye-opening to see everybody from Canon/Nikon to HP and Toshiba being impacted.

Note that as we speak, the A700 is the dSLR with the FASTEST write speed to the CF card, bar none. It is 2-3 times as fast as a Nikon D3 and/or a Canon 1DSMKIII. At 37MB/sec write speed (dpreview test) to the CF-Card, the camera is able to take full advantage of the UDMA capabilities of the fastest CF cards. No other camera, even uber cameras like the D3 or 1D class Canons can do this. Just a side advantage in being an electronics major.
Dennis said:
I won't be surprised to see a $3000-$4000 flagship that's a very
capably, pro-spec'd camera.
Click to expand...
The above will guarantee that Sony will always be playing catch-up with Nikon/Canon and will NEVER be considered as a real force. Cameras will remain unsold and be perpetual display queens, while the equally priced Canons and Nikons will fly off the lot. In another year or so, the FF "body" marketshare will be locked down tight, by the Canikon players (remember buying a dSLR "body" is a whole different ballgame than buying a fixed-lens camera) and then it would not matter at all, what Sony offers in the future.
Dennis said:
I won't be surprised to see a $2000 flagship that's a 5D-class
not-really-pro camera emphasizing IQ and low cost.
Click to expand...
I expect this to be a 5DII-class camera too (Definitely not D3/1D-class), with weather-sealing and 100% PentaPrism VF. I am emphasizing the "5DII", since I don't expect the new 5D to have the same situation as the current "5D" and will be more robust and will definitely come with weather-sealing.

But the above will satisfy the needs of anybody not needing the extreme abilities of a D3 class camera or the 1D class Canons (which in my mind would be MOST people). These will satisfy the needs of people who want Ultra-high-end Carl Zeiss lenses with Auto-focus and a high resolution decently specced camera, to pair them with.
 
Dennis said:
Chad Marek said:
A Sony "gamechanger" will NOT be a demonstration on how cheap they
can make their premere, gaze-with-awe-at-Sony's-technical-prowess
camera.
Click to expand...
One (very good) possibility is that the price is unreasonable - these
"I was told by my Sony sales rep" stories tend to be worth the cost
of the paper they're written on. The other possibility is that the
'flagship' is really nothing special ... just a cheap camera with a
25MP FF sensor.

There have been a couple reports showing a FF flagship featuring a
pentamirror VF and "fast AF" live view. This camera might be little
more than a big A350.
Click to expand...
I think this would be a very interesting take on the "flagship" concept, and it would match what sony has said all along - they are after the consumer market.

If that were the case, I would expect it to be under $2500.
Dennis said:
Dennis said:
If I were to see a Nikon professional FF camera or a Canon 1D series
camera come out at this price point, I would ask "what major
comprimises did they make to meet that price point?" This is NOT the
question you want pleople like me asking when looking for a camera.
Click to expand...
Why not ? It may simply not be the camera for "people like you" and
that's fine. If it's a $2000 IQ machine that picks up where the 5D
left off, so be it. (The Canon 5D gets knocked for being a
compromise camera that's not really a 'pro' camera, but it seems to
have sold well).
Click to expand...
What I fail to clarify by the "people like me" comment was that I am much more focused on performance than priice. I have a price I can bear, and I want to get the best camera that meets my needs in the price range, whatever the specific shooting style is that I use. I think that most that are looking to spend $1500-$2000 or more for a camera are approaching their purchase in the same way (unless their discretionary income is disproprotionate.)
Dennis said:
Dennis said:
The sales volume oif a $3500 camera (even if sold at $2k) will not be
large enough to have an impact on their position in the marketplace.
Click to expand...
That's tough to bet on. Sony would sell some $3500 cameras. They'd
sell a lot more $2000 cameras. Forget about a "loss leader" and
instead assume it was designed to sell at $2000 and makes a profit.
If either one makes a profit but one wins more market share and drags
in more sales of CZ lenses ... I wouldn't bet one way or the other.
(I would have bet on a $3500 camera until I started seeing those
"fast AF" predictions).
Click to expand...
There is over a magnitude difference in the sales volume of a rebel and the C5D. So, I don't think it's a tough bet.
Dennis said:
Dennis said:
Besides, I think most here are forgetting the source.
Click to expand...
Sony won't underprice. If it's $2000 then it's a $2000 camera, not a
$3500 camera sold as a loss leader.
Click to expand...
I agree, which means it will not meet the conventional wisdom feature/performance wishlist at $2000. And, I think many, many will extrodinarily dissapointed in the feature/performance list of a $2000 FF Sony dSLR.

--
Refusing to take pictures of my cats.
 
Correction, Chad the most expensive ff is the beautiful nikon d3 36 x 23.9 mm 12.1 megapixel CMOS sensor that sells for close to $5k - Hence at present the C5D is the cheapest ff but by no means cheap. ultimately, the name of the game is competition and a sony ff under $3k will really heat up the competition
Chad Marek said:
dtrph said:
the excellent Canon 5d currently the cheapest ff entry camera
Click to expand...
Actually, it is the only one in that class. Therefore, it is also
the most expensive.

--
Refusing to take pictures of my cats.
Click to expand...
--
dancph
 
roweraay said:
Dennis said:
Sorry, I don't see that as a viable possibility. The A700 is still
$1399 (discounted here & there, sure). It's not weather-sealed, has
a much smaller VF and a smaller sensor.
Click to expand...
Actually the A700 is weather-sealed, has a penta-prism viewfinder and
I bought mine for $839 (BB blowout).
Click to expand...
Keep comparing fire-sale prices to MSRP. Set your expectations on that comparison. I think it is a good strategy for you.

--
Refusing to take pictures of my cats.
 
---

That's my guess for the "barebone" FF body, W/O VG, in-body flash, LV and articulated LCD, but with a pentamirror! That's about US$1100.00 above the A700, which accounts for the 24MP FF sensor, new larger pentamirror, new larger body and some features improvement.

IMHO it is a reasonable guess, considering that Sony designs and manufactures all major and more expensive parts!

... Lucas
--
You're welcome to: http://www.pbase.com/lucaspix/root

Always having fun with photography ...

 
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