Do you feel a Recession (U.S.)?

I am starting to. In my area, at this time my calendar should be full of bookings (vacation family portraits). But it is not.

I've tried beefing up my portfolio and changing my marketing strategies. This has resulted in only limited success. But just by looking at the amount of activity on my website, there looks to be an overall decline in interest. In other words, people are not even thinking about getting a family portrait taken. I suspect that they do not have the disposable income to even consider this.

Even a fellow colleague of mine has a similar situation. And he has a fantastic marketing campaign as his website always appears in the top five listings when you do a search for a photographer in my area.

I think people will be skipping family portraits this year. And B&G's will be tapping into their family and friends network to photograph their wedding.

Am I getting worried for nothing? Are you feeling any effects in your part of the world?
Your thoughts on the current state of the photography business.

That reminds me...I need to start making home lunches...

Dude, have you been living under a rock? Do the words war, oil, tax, interest, mortgage, bank and loan not mean anything to you?

The US economy has entered what looks to be one of the worst recessions it has ever faced.

Other countries are affected to various extents, such as reduced access to credit due to US banks giving billions of dollars away to people without any chance of repaying it.

Martin Caie said:

Dude, have you been living under a rock? Do the words war, oil, tax,
interest, mortgage, bank and loan not mean anything to you?

The US economy has entered what looks to be one of the worst
recessions it has ever faced.

Other countries are affected to various extents, such as reduced
access to credit due to US banks giving billions of dollars away to
people without any chance of repaying it.

Click to expand...

I actually live ON a rock (island). And your comment was not the reassurance I was looking for. But I guess if it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck.....

I don't want to start a debate on recession no recession. Depending who gets elected the economy will be better than we thought or see we told you it was bad.

I have a small business that relies on peoples disposable income and they're willingness to spend it. I also live in Michigan.

Here's what I see happens. People look at they're own economic situation and decide we're doing ok let's buy a new tv, wash machine, car, boat, family portraits, whatever. Then the news runs a story about possible recession or actual recession and people decide they better wait to make these purchases.

I wish the media would quit the doom and gloom. The economy has been better but it's not as bad as the media would like us to believe.

Just my 2 cents
Matt

The media is responsible for many of the ills in this nation. What ever they choose to sensationalize...
--
T---
http://www.crosman.org

i will second that, in the UK the media causes many problems. If they say theres a shortage of Sugar, everyone rushes out a buy Sugar. Result is a shortage!

tcg550 said:

I wish the media would quit the doom and gloom. The economy has been
better but it's not as bad as the media would like us to believe.

Click to expand...

Ok, blame the messanger. Can you name one economist who said that the economy is in good shape?

that trillion or so dollars going over to Iraq... Cough Vietnam Cough

Great to be part of that "Coalition of the Willing" ;-)

jdawg said:

I am starting to. In my area, at this time my calendar should be
full of bookings (vacation family portraits). But it is not.

I've tried beefing up my portfolio and changing my marketing
strategies. This has resulted in only limited success. But just by
looking at the amount of activity on my website, there looks to be an
overall decline in interest. In other words, people are not even
thinking about getting a family portrait taken. I suspect that they
do not have the disposable income to even consider this.

Even a fellow colleague of mine has a similar situation. And he has
a fantastic marketing campaign as his website always appears in the
top five listings when you do a search for a photographer in my area.

I think people will be skipping family portraits this year. And
B&G's will be tapping into their family and friends network to
photograph their wedding.

Am I getting worried for nothing? Are you feeling any effects in
your part of the world?
Your thoughts on the current state of the photography business.

That reminds me...I need to start making home lunches...

Click to expand...

I'm sure there are opinions on both sides, recession, no recession.

My point is people should look at they're own financial situations and make decisions based on that. Read and listen to the experts but do not make decisions based on the sound bytes on the evening news that are intended to sway the election.

I own a small business based on the boating industry. If I would have listened to the forecasters I would have found a new line of work 5-6 years ago. I looked at my situation and made decisions accordingly. It's been tough but we are holding on.

Here are some quotes. I know there a many more saying recession. Warren Buffet announcing the US is in a recession doesn't help either.

You can use Google to verify these.
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Being an economic forecaster is as dangerous as being a weather forecaster -- the longer view you take, the harder it is to “see” the future. Nevertheless, economist Brian Wesbury must be doing something right when he looks in his crystal ball. The Wall Street Journal, where his smart and coherent op-ed pieces run frequently, named him the country’s Number-One economic forecaster in 2001 and USA Today ranked him among the top 10 in 2004. Economics editor of The American Spectator magazine and a regular expert on CNBC, Wesbury is currently chief economist at First Trust Advisors L.P., a financial services firm based near Chicago. I talked to him by phone on Thursday:

Q: You say we are not in a recession and we are not even headed for one, right?

A: That is correct. Every single recession in the United States for the last 80 years has been preceded by a tight Federal Reserve policy -- in other words, excessively high interest rates. And we clearly don’t have that today. Recessions are also preceded frequently by tax hikes or protectionism. So I would say that today we have very low interest rates, we have low tax rates, and we are not moving in a protectionist direction. As a result, those conditions that have led to recessions in the past don't exist. One last point: I know of no point in history where we have ever scared ourselves into a recession. It just has never happened before and I don’t think it will happen this time, either.
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy will likely avoid a recession but growth will slow to a crawl during the first half of this year, a panel of business economists forecast on Monday.

Among the panel of 49 National Association for Business Economics economists surveyed between January 25 and February 13, about 45 percent said they believe a recession will have occurred by the end of this year. But most believe it will be short and shallow.

The remaining 55 percent said a downturn will be relatively muted.
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Recession or Slowdown, Plosser Sees Mid-Year Turnaround

Charles Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said today he expects slow growth in the first half of the year and “a good chance” the economy will begin to turn around mid-year.

As for whether the economy is in a recession, very slow growth or a slight contraction, he “feels much the same,” he told reporters after a speech to the National Association for Business Economics.

But Mr. Plosser said Fed officials are no more certain than others about how the economy will perform and are trying to gauge how much insurance is enough to protect against the downside risks. “We’re in an environment where there’s lots of uncertainty,” he said.
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All this doesn't appear to unnerve Mr. Bernanke. He told members of Congress last week that the country isn't “anywhere near” the dangerous stagflation situation of the 1970s. Stagflation, it's worth recalling, is the toxic mix of sustained economic weakness, high unemployment and rising prices.

“I don't anticipate stagflation,” Mr. Bernanke calmly assured the Senate banking committee. “I don‘t think we're anywhere near the situation that prevailed in the 1970s.”

Mr. Bernanke said he expects inflation to come down. Indeed, the Fed's most recent forecast is highly dependent on inflation ratcheting down as the year goes on.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke went to Capitol Hill today to provide Congress with an update on the struggling US economy. The Fed forecast he summarized called for very slow growth in 2008, but no recession; and that was the good news.

That's right, blame the recession on the Media. Don't talk about it. Positive thinking and it will all go away.

This one is going to hurt bad and I'm feeling it already.

--
-Dom-
http://www.photofi.com

I drive a little less, go out to eat less, try to get a little more life from things, etc., etc.....too bad our Fed Chairman is so worthless. He should have acted earlier and faster.

My 13 year-old could probably do a better job. He asked me early last year, " Dad, how come SO many people are buying extra homes with no money down and interest rates that will eventrually go up?"

--
Whether you think you can or you can't, you're right!

tcg550 said:

I wish the media would quit the doom and gloom. The economy has been
better but it's not as bad as the media would like us to believe.

Just my 2 cents
Matt

Click to expand...

The media WILL stop all the doom and gloom IF a democrat is elected in November. Then the birds will be chirping and the sun will come out. It'll be magic.

As for the poster who said this is the worst recession ever or something like that ... person has little to zero life experience or memory that's for sure.

Personally, I believe gasoline prices are the biggest problem going on now. It's causing less travel, less expendable income and is filtering more and more into rising prices of everything we buy. Bring down gas prices and the birds will chirp again.

The U.S. economy has been built on the availability of cheap fuel prices. Now that gas and diesel fuel is two dollars more a gallon that just 2-3 years ago has made a big dent in the consumer's wallet in two ways.

First driving is really more expensive. We live out west where public transportaion is almost non-existant.

Second, higher fuel prices have started to drive up the costs of transportaion of goods and farm goods.

The reality as I see it after talking to friends, relatives and clients is that families have a couple hundred dollars less DISPOSABLE income each month to spend. They have to decide what is important and luxuries like portrait photography (school, family, high school senior, even wedding) is taking the brunt of the cut-back in personal spending.

they can be as a nation. (not all individuals). Attack Iraq vs getting Osama---error in hindsight, trillions of $ down the drain, ...yada yada

Then the bigger is better syndrome, most prevalent in affluent nations like the USA, but not limited to them: gotta have bigger SUV's, swimming pools, and the killer came with the huge houses they built for themselves ! Al Gore should be ashamed of himself...big houses and preaching to the Chinese...etc. And that nitwit documentary movie maker , mr doom and gloom...while he lives in a 2 Million $$ house ??? unbelievable, the gall of some americans. So now their greed has triggered a huge recession , affecting their neighbors as well (via trade).

So look to the new black dude president to fix all the ails. Good luck, friends. You need it.
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Have a great and wonderful Day !! Cheers !!

See China's Best (new !! ) at http://www.jonrp.smugmug.com

In the hierarchy of needs portrait photography is a luxury item. Hence a good portrait photographer can command luxury prices, but the downside is you will be one of the first people affected by a down turn in the economy.
I suspect other sellers of luxury items are also feeling the pinch.

The bench mark for total economic collapse in the U.S. is $4.25 a gallon. I heard this from a economic professor.

I have noticed that more of the people contacting me want to talk price right away. They are shopping for the best price and cost is on their mind more than this time last year. My '08 wedding season is booked heavier than ever and this is abot the time that I should start to pick up bookings for '09. I am getting calls and emails but couples are difinately looking more at the cost. It could be a good year for the newbees, who will do a wedding for less that it actually costs them to do it.

We've been in a recession for 8 years and it's not getting better. Off shoring, outsourcing and downsizing have affected nearly 80,000 jobs here.
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Think about the photo before and after, never during. The secret is to take your time. You mustn't go too fast. The subject must forget about you. Then, however, you must be very quick.

Henri Cartier-Bresson

I remember the 'recession' of the early 1990's upon which Bill Clinton took the White House - "It's the economy, stupid".

Turns out it was NOT a recession. Also turns out that, about 73 nanoseconds after having been sworn in the NY Times starting just churning out all the good news.

Here's my predictions, very much like yours. If a democrat wins then all will be rosy and cheerful again. If a McCain wins then the media will just sort of stop lying as opposed to doing a complete 180. The problem is, McCain is the media's pick too. Funny how we end up with potentially the most liberal democrat senator (Obama) taking on McCain, who is arguably the most liberal Republican. Gee, it's almost as if the media had it planned this way.

Oh, the topic was economy. Mine has never been better. But then, I don't spend money I don't have and live on a level that is supported by less than a third of my income. Basically I am just acting like a grown-up.

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'Truth is stranger than fiction, for we have fashioned fiction to suite ourselves.' G.K. Chesterton

http://www.jimroofcreative.net

Get ten economists in the same room and you will have 12 different opinions.

--

'Truth is stranger than fiction, for we have fashioned fiction to suite ourselves.' G.K. Chesterton

http://www.jimroofcreative.net