Pros who need the D3 probably already have a Canon

Bill Janes

Veteran Member
Messages
2,042
Solutions
1
Reaction score
362
Location
Lake Forest, IL, US
There is a lot of talk about Nikon's poorly considered decision to let NPS members move to the front of the line in obtaining a D3. It is stated that they need the camera to make a living.

The D3 excels in sports and action photography where high ISO and a high frame rate are essential. As can be seen at any sporting event, nearly all of the cameras have white lenses. Pros who need these capabilities to make a living have already gone to Canon, and I don't think they would have to buy a D3 to survive. As Thom Hogan noted in a recent post on his web site, it is likely that the D3 and the 1D MIII will prove to be roughly equivalent. I do not think that many sports shooters will abandon their investment in Canon lenses in order to switch to a roughly equivalent camera for they will have to buy another set of very expensive large aperture telephoto lenses.

For studio photography, the advantages of the D3 over the D2x are minimal. If high resolution is required, the pros would have already gone over to the Canon 1Ds series or medium format.

In view the above, I think it is rather questionable that the pros won't be able to survive without getting a D3.
--
Bill Janes
 
Also, media giants, newspapers, and the like are corporations. Corporate buyers go where their dollar goes the farthest. The lenses these guys use are all long lenses and Nikon ones are too expensive - $7,900 for a Nikon 500 VR verses $5,500 for a Canon 500 IS as an example. Not a tough decision to see which way the purchasing department is going to go, and the pro photographers use what is given to them to use. The fact that the D3 may be a nice body or better body is not going to enter into the buying equation. Purchasing and Finance Departments look to where their money gets the most return.

Independent pros may be another story. But again, they use what gets the job done, not necessarily what gets the job done the best. Again, it is the most for your money and the return on the investment. If their D2Xs's get the job done, why switch up. And for a Canon independent pro to switch is a big financial decision with questionable additional return on investment just to get a D3 body. Besides PMA is only a few months away and 2008 is a Photokina year. Canon won't allow the D3 to go unanswered, and the wait isn't that long.

I think the majority of sales of the D3 will be to the Nikon Serious Amateur crowd. Not all, but most. Some Canon pros and S/A's may switch too, if they have the funds to afford it, but I doubt if the numbers will be major.

JT
 
If what Jim says turns out to be the case - then the fact that they are prioritising the pros should not hold up the non-pro orders so much - as there wont be so many pro orders to hold things up - alternatively if us serious amateurs end up waiting for 6 months - then we'll know for sure that the D3 was a big hit amongst the pros too.

Jim writes:

"I think the majority of sales of the D3 will be to the Nikon Serious Amateur crowd. Not all, but most. Some Canon pros and S/A's may switch too, if they have the funds to afford it, but I doubt if the numbers will be major."
 
Also, media giants, newspapers, and the like are corporations.
Corporate buyers go where their dollar goes the farthest. The lenses
these guys use are all long lenses and Nikon ones are too expensive -
$7,900 for a Nikon 500 VR verses $5,500 for a Canon 500 IS as an
example. Not a tough decision to see which way the purchasing
department is going to go, and the pro photographers use what is
given to them to use. The fact that the D3 may be a nice body or
better body is not going to enter into the buying equation.
Purchasing and Finance Departments look to where their money gets the
most return.

Independent pros may be another story. But again, they use what gets
the job done, not necessarily what gets the job done the best.
Again, it is the most for your money and the return on the
investment. If their D2Xs's get the job done, why switch up. And
for a Canon independent pro to switch is a big financial decision
with questionable additional return on investment just to get a D3
body. Besides PMA is only a few months away and 2008 is a Photokina
year. Canon won't allow the D3 to go unanswered, and the wait isn't
that long.

I think the majority of sales of the D3 will be to the Nikon Serious
Amateur crowd. Not all, but most. Some Canon pros and S/A's may
switch too, if they have the funds to afford it, but I doubt if the
numbers will be major.

JT
I hope youre right...you DO make sense, both of you. Now lets see if this line moves any faster!
 
Jim,

An excellent analysis. If your predictions are correct, the number D3s going to NPS members may not be that large. The Canon users have little incentive to switch, and they are not NPS members in any case unless they already have some Nikons as well. The D2x NPS members may well wait for the D3x to be released.
--
Bill Janes
 
Nikon will be closing operations, since as per your logic no one will be buying either of these cameras.
 
Nikon will be closing operations, since as per your logic no one will
be buying either of these cameras.
Nikon has done very well in the serious amateur market and many of these users, myself included, may upgrade if they can get the allocation, especially before Christmas. The D300 will also most likely do very well as Thom predicts. The other consumer models will do very well as well.

Nikon engineers are very good, but the marketing people are very good at shooting themselves in the foot.

Bill Janes
 
There is a lot of talk about Nikon's poorly considered decision to
let NPS members move to the front of the line in obtaining a D3. It
is stated that they need the camera to make a living.
I have stated this before, NPS members do not move to the front of the line. A dealers allocation is based on their previous sales not NPS purchases. Also even NPS members have a waiting list and it is just like any dealer, the first in line get a better shot than late comers. There will be 1000's of you who get cameras before NPS members. A Nikon member can not walk into a dealer and buy a camera in front of you. This is a myth. Nikon pros have to order through Nikon corporate (yea I am sure that is speedy :) ) and approved then their camera is shipped to the dealer separately from their regular allocation. Repeating a myth does not make it true and yet this "front of the line" nonsense keeps getting repeated by people who have no clue to distributions channels work.

I don't think anyone has said pros need a D3 to make a living but Nikon is focusing on providing the market of pros who make a living using with more of their products. No one NEEDS a D3 to make a living but we all want to provide the best product we can those who are paying for the product. Don't you ?

I don't care what business you are in 99% of the time your best customers get the majority of your attention. If you can get a major customer to standardize on your product would you jump through hoops to make that happen ? Nikon's marketing attempts to gain more market share in the pro market is a business decision and I don't understand why so many people are whining about it.
The D3 excels in sports and action photography where high ISO and a
high frame rate are essential. As can be seen at any sporting event,
nearly all of the cameras have white lenses. Pros who need these
capabilities to make a living have already gone to Canon, and I don't
think they would have to buy a D3 to survive.
Oh really. So there are no pro Nikon shooters... hmmm I guess someone should tell the Vincent Versace and the Joe McNally's of the world making living with Nikon gear this.

As Thom Hogan noted in
a recent post on his web site, it is likely that the D3 and the 1D
MIII will prove to be roughly equivalent. I do not think that many
sports shooters will abandon their investment in Canon lenses in
order to switch to a roughly equivalent camera for they will have to
buy another set of very expensive large aperture telephoto lenses.
Let me see if I understand this logic... all of the Nikon shooters who abandoned their investment in Nikon and went to Canon 4 years ago are not ever willing to do that again ? Even if Nikon's roadmap has a D3x 24mp body, new primes and zooms that rival Canon primes. No who would do such a thing. :) Oh yea they invested in a 1DMIII that doesn't focus but what the heck.

I am not privy to Nikons sales strategy but I have heard of Canon going after specific photographers by offering them free or reduced product but I am guess Nikon would never ever consider this to win back the business.
For studio photography, the advantages of the D3 over the D2x are
minimal. If high resolution is required, the pros would have already
gone over to the Canon 1Ds series or medium format.
Who makes up this stuff ? So every commercial photographer and every wedding photographer all use Canon ? Also it might come as a surprise but megapixels is not the only criteria for buying a camera. You have been listening to too much marketing hype.
In view the above, I think it is rather questionable that the pros
won't be able to survive without getting a D3.
Bill with all due respect I don't know where you get your information but your assumptions are so far out of left field they are humorous. If I understand what you are saying it would be this...

1. All the pros use Canon and Nikon should not bother

2. Nikon should not attempt to satisfy those who use their products on a daily basis to make a living.
3. And no one needs a D3 because the 1DMIII is just a good.

Like it or not Nikon has made a decision to go after the professional market and the D3 is just the tip of the iceberg. The NPS reps are being told to aggressively go after the Gannetts, AP's and others who's images are sent around the world on a daily basis. Nikon wants this business back and I am sure if it means some people will have to wait to get a D3 for their kids soccer game my guess is they can live with that decision.

Have you ever considered that Nikon might have a pretty good idea of who has spent $5000 on a D2x and therefore who will be an early adopter of the D3 ? Have you ever considered that once the initial purchases of hobbyist for the D3 that the biggest market for the D3 and D3x will be working pros ? When the D3x comes out at $8000 how many non-pros will whine because this is being offered to working pros first ?

Here are the facts... almost every company has multiple channels of distribution and sales. There is always some channel conflict between sales of these products. But the fact of the matter is the pro-sales reps for Nikon make a living selling to pros and the retail reps make a living selling to Ritz. Nikon has made some decision on how many products will go into each channel regardless of the decision someone is not going to be happy. If you were them would you want a guy who shoots on weekends or USA Today or some other large company ?

Lee
 
Well, I think that takes care of this thread...
1. All the pros use Canon and Nikon should not bother
2. Nikon should not attempt to satisfy those who use their products
on a daily basis to make a living.
3. And no one needs a D3 because the 1DMIII is just a good.
 
Also, media giants, newspapers, and the like are corporations.
Corporate buyers go where their dollar goes the farthest. The lenses
these guys use are all long lenses and Nikon ones are too expensive -
$7,900 for a Nikon 500 VR verses $5,500 for a Canon 500 IS as an
example.
Jim nice theory but sorry it doesn't quite work that way. Yes corporations are looking for the best ROI and price is important but price not the only decision that goes into a purchase like this.

I have worked with almost every major fortune 100 company in the US if you were correct then no one would have ever bought products from IBM, SUN, Oracle or Microsoft. Why not just use Linux it's free ??

I don't have time to layout marketing 101 right now but things like relationships, a companies long term strategy, product direction, support and a number of other intangible's go into these decisions. As far as financial issues, the amortized value of a product also comes into play. If a company has been using Canon products for 4 years then it might be financially beneficial for some of them to reinvest for tax purposes.

So saying companies buy the cheapest product is just plain wrong. Besides price and cost are not the same thing. Cost comes into play in overall life the the product. If you pay more for a product but it has fewer repairs then that product actually cost less than the cheaper product.

But as I stated above no one knows what kind of arrangements Nikon is offering these companies so to say they will buy Canon because it cheaper is not a valid point.
 
Nikon engineers are very good, but the marketing people are very good
at shooting themselves in the foot.
Nikon's Nikon Professional Services system was invented in the U.S. in the 1960s by Ehrenreich Photo Optical Incorporated, the company that was at that time the Nikon distributor for the U.S. The Japanese liked the idea and introduced it throughout the Nikon distributor network. It has since been copied by Canon (CPS) Olympus (OGPS), Leica (partially), and probably others.

At Nikon, the system includes a number of perks for pros (i.e. NPS members) that are not offered to regular customers, including not just priority ordering (what's being discussed here), but also expedited repairs, free repairs at major news events, and free loan of equipment. An NPS member can borrow a 600mm f/4 lens for free, for example (if one is available; the supply is not unlimited).

So Nikon is offering pros many benefits that they don't offer you, and they've been doing it for 40 years or so. It is without question a form of customer discrimination. Joe Ehrenreich's rationale, when he first introduced the idea, was simple: The program would help to make Nikon a more attractive choice than other brands for professional photographers. Being a brand that is widely used by pros was the centerpiece of Nikon's overall marketing message for decades, so courting pros was an important part of Nikon's overall business strategy.

And many, many businesses do similar things. The NPS system is conceptually similar to "customer loyalty" and business preference programs run by hotels, airlines, credit card companies etc. etc -- when I worked as a sales rep for Nikon, for example, we had several corporate accounts with hotels and rental card companies that gave us special rates not available to the public. And I'm sure you're aware that your local hardware store has a whole set of procedures -- and lower prices -- for building contractors that don't apply to regular customers -- house charge accounts, separate order desks, on-site materials delivery etc. etc. In the old days (don't know if they still do it) Costco opened an hour early every day for business customers only; regular consumers were not allowed in the door. In short, businesses of all types treat different classes of customers differently.

You are free to dislike the NPS system, and even free to use another brand if you dislike it that much. But it is not new, and it is not "poorly considered." Nikon has thought long and hard about it (the repair and loaner components of NPS cost Nikon a great deal of money), and they've been doing it for decades. And their primary competitors have copied the basic idea, so there are some other folks -- folks who are fairly familiar with camera marketing -- who have also concluded that it's a good idea.

Again, it is a form of customer discrimination; I'm not denying that. And I'm not surprised that some folks don't like it. But it certainly isn't uncommon, or immoral, or anything new. Just thought I'd get that on the record.
 
There is a lot of talk about Nikon's poorly considered decision to
let NPS members move to the front of the line in obtaining a D3. It
is stated that they need the camera to make a living.
Seems logical to me, I don't understand the fuss.
The D3 excels in sports and action photography where high ISO and a
high frame rate are essential. As can be seen at any sporting event,
nearly all of the cameras have white lenses. Pros who need these
capabilities to make a living have already gone to Canon, and I don't
think they would have to buy a D3 to survive.
Well, I just saw a few blankets fly in the air....

Not all pros who shoot action are toting a 9 LB lens around. Often they are part of the action so those lenses arent really practical. I am used to shooting about 16-280 with my Canon gear, but this year it will be 16-600 with Nikon. I want to build a stronger system and for what I do, the 200-400 makes a lot of sense. I also prefer to have mechanical film rigs for niche black and white and other films.
For studio photography, the advantages of the D3 over the D2x are
minimal. If high resolution is required, the pros would have already
gone over to the Canon 1Ds series or medium format.

In view the above, I think it is rather questionable that the pros
won't be able to survive without getting a D3.
Enter the F5....

Used in studios, journalism, advertising, architecture, crime, science, weddings, stock and space. The system is what made the camera, the lenses are the base.

Regardless of discipline, the camera just performed fantastic. Well the D3 is a good title, because it is about 3 times the camera the F5 is in every regard. The D3 makes so much sense, it is an F5 on nitrous. The D300 paired with it is just about ideal.

These are good times ahead....
 
There is a lot of talk about Nikon's poorly considered decision to
let NPS members move to the front of the line in obtaining a D3. It
is stated that they need the camera to make a living.
I have stated this before, NPS members do not move to the front of
the line. A dealers allocation is based on their previous sales not
NPS purchases. Also even NPS members have a waiting list and it is
just like any dealer, the first in line get a better shot than late
comers. There will be 1000's of you who get cameras before NPS
members. A Nikon member can not walk into a dealer and buy a camera
in front of you. This is a myth. Nikon pros have to order through
Nikon corporate (yea I am sure that is speedy :) ) and approved then
their camera is shipped to the dealer separately from their regular
allocation. Repeating a myth does not make it true and yet this
"front of the line" nonsense keeps getting repeated by people who
have no clue to distributions channels work.
Perhaps all this is true -- where you live.

Do I get priority as an NPS member? Absolutely.
Do I cut the lines? Absolutely.

Do I have to order through Nikon Corporate? Absolutely not (through a "Pro Dealer", though).
Is this nonsense? Absolutely not.

--
Take care,
Jorgen

Probere necesse est.....
 
A dealers allocation is based on their previous sales not
NPS purchases.
No. In the U.S. a dealer's allocation is based on many things, not least the whims of a man named David Lee (Nikon USA's head honcho, and my old boss when I was a Nikon sales rep). It is not a transparent or predictable process. But NPS orders will definitely influence a dealer's allocation in the first few months of D3 availability. There won't be enough cameras to go around, and Nikon will favor NPS orders. With the D3, it is evidently the case that Nikon Japan is putting special pressure on the distributors to take special care to ensure that NPS orders get favored.

But you are right that Nikon USA will distribute cameras on the basis of several different criteria, and they only have limited control of what really happens to cameras once they leave the warehouse, so it is certainly the case that many regular consumers will get cameras before NPS members do. It always happens that way.
 
Also, media giants, newspapers, and the like are corporations.
Corporate buyers go where their dollar goes the farthest. The lenses
these guys use are all long lenses and Nikon ones are too expensive -
$7,900 for a Nikon 500 VR verses $5,500 for a Canon 500 IS as an
example. Not a tough decision to see which way the purchasing
department is going to go
I've worked with a number of large companies where the procurement people are paid bonuses dependent on the percentage discount they achieve...
Canon won't allow the D3 to go unanswered, and the wait isn't
that long.
Product cycles are longer than that. Canon's 'answer' is the Mk III. Or, maybe, a Mk III with AF that works.
I think the majority of sales of the D3 will be to the Nikon Serious
Amateur crowd. Not all, but most. Some Canon pros and S/A's may
switch too, if they have the funds to afford it, but I doubt if the
numbers will be major.
And I think you're wrong. The other dynamic is camera lifecycles with the pros. A lot of low-stress early D2X owners would have been planning to replace their bodies about now anyway. And high-stress D2Xs owners who work on shorter replacement cycles.

--
Guy

My 'work' photos are at http://swarbrick.com/photos
The 'fun' stuff is at http://www.flickr.com/photos/swarbrick

Equipment in profile

 
But NPS orders will definitely
influence a dealer's allocation in the first few months of D3
availability. There won't be enough cameras to go around, and Nikon
will favor NPS orders. With the D3, it is evidently the case that
Nikon Japan is putting special pressure on the distributors to take
special care to ensure that NPS orders get favored.
Eamon thanks and its nice to actually have someone who knows what they are talking about first hand about this.

Also I hope no one misunderstood me of course there are a limited number of units and pro sales do impact consumer sales. But this image people are painting of and NPS shooter being able to walk in and take a camera a way from a dealers allocation or but in line is not accurate.

As I stated in another thread, the same thing could be said for country allocations. "Why does country X get more cameras than country Y and doesn't that mean they are getting a camera before me even though I was first on the list?" kind of attitude.

In my opinion Nikon's attention to the pro market is a good thing and in the long run I think we will all benefit.

Eamon thanks for your insight.

Lee
 
There is a lot of talk about Nikon's poorly considered decision to
let NPS members move to the front of the line in obtaining a D3. It
is stated that they need the camera to make a living.
I have stated this before, NPS members do not move to the front of
the line.
You have state this before. And at least two people have pointed out to you not only that you're wrong, but why you're wrong. Stating it again - and reminding people that you've stated it before - won't make it true.
Repeating a myth does not make it true
See? You do know? :)
and yet this
"front of the line" nonsense keeps getting repeated by people who
have no clue to distributions channels work.
Tee hee. My day job (and the reason I won't ever get my photographic income up to 100%) is as CEO of a distribution channel strategy consulting firm. Bill may or may not know. I do.
I don't care what business you are in 99% of the time your best
customers get the majority of your attention.
Usuailly your highest revenue customers, who are almost always your least profitable - if not loss making. But that doesn't mean you're wrong.
The D3 excels in sports and action photography where high ISO and a
high frame rate are essential. As can be seen at any sporting event,
nearly all of the cameras have white lenses. Pros who need these
capabilities to make a living have already gone to Canon, and I don't
think they would have to buy a D3 to survive.
Oh really. So there are no pro Nikon shooters... hmmm I guess someone
should tell the Vincent Versace and the Joe McNally's of the world
making living with Nikon gear this.
We agree on this one...
Like it or not Nikon has made a decision to go after the professional
market and the D3 is just the tip of the iceberg. The NPS reps are
being told to aggressively go after the Gannetts, AP's and others
who's images are sent around the world on a daily basis. Nikon wants
this business back and I am sure if it means some people will have to
wait to get a D3 for their kids soccer game my guess is they can live
with that decision.
All true. And the right thing for Nikon to do.
Here are the facts... almost every company has multiple channels of
distribution and sales. There is always some channel conflict between
sales of these products. But the fact of the matter is the pro-sales
reps for Nikon make a living selling to pros and the retail reps make
a living selling to Ritz. Nikon has made some decision on how many
products will go into each channel regardless of the decision someone
is not going to be happy
And the decision - in Canada and the UK for sure, but there are plenty of hints that the same will apply to the US as well - is that the retail reps get none until the pro-sales reps have run out of orders.

--
Guy

My 'work' photos are at http://swarbrick.com/photos
The 'fun' stuff is at http://www.flickr.com/photos/swarbrick

Equipment in profile

 
But NPS orders will definitely
influence a dealer's allocation in the first few months of D3
availability. There won't be enough cameras to go around, and Nikon
will favor NPS orders. With the D3, it is evidently the case that
Nikon Japan is putting special pressure on the distributors to take
special care to ensure that NPS orders get favored.
Eamon thanks and its nice to actually have someone who knows what
they are talking about first hand about this.
It's no different (although slightly more detailed) than you had been told already...
But this
image people are painting of and NPS shooter being able to walk in
and take a camera a way from a dealers allocation
Nobody had suggested any such thing.
or but in line is
That's exactly what any NPS member does if he gets a camera allocated ahead of a non-NPS member who ordered earlier than he did. And, as Eamon pointed out, NPS allocation is done before store allocation - as we've already told you.
In my opinion Nikon's attention to the pro market is a good thing and
in the long run I think we will all benefit.
I agree, but that doesn't mean you're right about the allocation. :)

--
Guy

My 'work' photos are at http://swarbrick.com/photos
The 'fun' stuff is at http://www.flickr.com/photos/swarbrick

Equipment in profile

 
Who does Nikon consider a "pro"? I know what the IRS says but what about Nikon. I know one of the several things Nikons wants for NPS membership are "current tear sheets". I am a photographic studio owner for 37 years with the vast majority of my work being portraits and weddings. So do I send in copies of engagement and bridal portriats that appeared in my local rag from my town of 12,000 + souls for "tear sheets" are does a guy need something that appeared in SI, the NY Times or a anual report, etc?

I first becames a NPS member in 1973 and just renewed my membership every year with a simple "OK" on the form a sent me. Then about 3 or 4 years ago they changed the rules and I just let my membeship expire.

I do earn 100% of my living in photography if that counts for anything with Nikon.
Hope you can follow my rambling and I didn't mean to hijack this thread. Sorry.
--
Buck
 

Keyboard shortcuts

Back
Top