1) Someone said that NIkon would always have a market for cheaper
sensors like DX based ones.
That is the number 1, most significant fact that you have missed. The growth in the dslr camera market doesn't come from folks that already own dslr's. It has to come from folks that will not pay current prices and won't buy big cameras with big lenses. For DSLR market growth, all of the makers have to contend with that issue. Incremental updates in cameras won't sustain and grow the market. At some point, the MP race will be beyond stupid.
Bigger is better in photography? Well yeah, that's pretty much the way it has always been, but that didn't stop 35mm from becoming the most widely used format. That's why MF and LF film is going the way of the dodo bird.
That's essentially like saying there
would always be a market for 486 DX2 processors in PC's. The DSLR
wars just can't allow for the DX sensor, it's design optimized to
it's size limits now, to continue.
And what has changed with the 486 processors and computers along with other similar consumer goods? Everything has gotten smaller, not larger.
pricey...the 18-200VR. I seriously doubt Nikon will develop more than
a few DX lenses now. They're plan is obvious.
Nikon and canon kept the FF lenses because of the large film base that would buy their new offerings. The same is true now that both have FF dslr's. That ensures the largest market for new lenses. That doesn't guarantee that future cameras and lenses will continue to be that size.
3) There's no logic to keeping the DX format.
The same could be said for FF when compared to MF digital. Obviously, that doesn't wash.
Not only is there logic to keeping DX, the most logical approach to future growth would be to make everything smaller than DX. It is illogical to assume that growth will come from making cameras and lenses larger than DX. The only significant strength of FF is lower noise, which is a technology issue. Technological progress will continue to make improvements in that area, further reducing the benefit of FF. At some point, DX sensors will be good enough that even though FF would be better, it won't matter to the masses.
Smaller size, lower weight and cost will always trump the larger, heavier, more costly systems in the market place. Eventually, smaller, lighter, cheaper lenses will be coupled with smaller, lighter and cheaper bodies that will produce better photos than we can get today. That's my prediction.
I'd gladly throw all of my gear in the dump, in exchange for gear that would produce better photos at half the cost, size and weight. It is the same thing that has already happened with a lot of folks that have abandoned LF and MF cameras for dslr's. I rather doubt that there would be many that wouldn't do the same.
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my gallery of so-so photos
http://www.pbase.com/kerrypierce/root