Nope. Just because Canon and Nikon, and soon Sony, have ultra
expensive professional 24x36 bodies as low-cost alternatives to
digital medium format, this doesn't mean that the world is going
24x36 unless the world is going pro.
I disagree. The Canon 5D is only about twice as much as the 40D and less than a thousand dollars more than the new Nikon D300. The 5D is not ultra expensive. The 5D is in fact less expensive than the Canon D30. Like the D30, full frame will continue to fall in price. Full frame has not fallen in price as fast as APS-C due to lack of competition. But competition is heating up with the introduction of the Nikon D3 and the anticipated introduction of the flagship Sony Alpha full frame.
The bar for the 24x36 has not been lowered, the cameras has not come
down in prices, and the userbase has not been broaded. 24x36 is today
where it was last year. Nothing has happened. It is still that rare
and ultra-expensive exclusive digital format. Nothing has changed
because Nikon comes up with an ultra-expensive 24x36 camera.
I disagree. The D3 is about the same price as the D2XS, but it packs a lot more features and a much more expensive sensor. According to Canon's math, a full frame costs about 10 times as much as an APS-C sensor since 10 times as many APS-C sensors can be fitted onto an 8 inch silicon wafer as full frame sensors. That means the D3 is a much better value than the APS-C D2XS that it replaced.
Nikon's new D300, Canon's new D40, Canon's new EF-S lenses, all shows
that APS-C is coming strong, is alive and kickin' and is here to
stay.
Yes, the APS-C format is still strong. It is alive and kicking, but for how long?
APS-C is a format for the future, it has already replaced 24x36
film as the dominating digital format for most consumers and
semi-professionald, or professionals on a tight budget. And it will
stay there.
Quite the contrary. APS-C format is a format for the past, not the future. The future belongs to full frame. More and more full frame models are being produced and being bought than before. The market share for full frame models is small compared to APS-C but it will increase.
APS-C, 24x36 and digital medium format are happily co-existing now
and will continue so into the future. This is the reality. There is
no need for Pentax to come up with a "me too" ultra expensive 24x36
product that few people would buy.
I agree. There is probably no market for a Pentax full frame costing between 5-7 thousand dollars. In the future, however, full frame will come down in price. Right now, the Canon 5D is less than a thousand bucks more than the Nikon D300, and only about twice as much as the 40D. Prices will continue to come down. And demand would then go up. Sooner or later, the APS-C market will disappear.
The 24x36 club is not growing just
because new members wants to join the club, the 24x36 club still has
a very limited share of the market and this will not increase unless
many photographers suddenly wins the lottery.
--
Take care
R
http://www.flickr.com/photos/raphaelmabo
There is no need to win the lottery to join the full frame DSLR club. Many APS-C users are paying close to a thousand dollars each for expensive APS-C lenses. Their full frame equivalents (in terms of angles of view) are much cheaper. For example, someone who can afford a Nikon D300 ($1800) plus a 12-24mm DX Nikkor ($900) can surely afford a Canon 5D ($2,500) and a 20-35mm Canon lens ($370).
Take your pick, you can spend your money on a full frame body or spend the money you "save" on expensive APS-C only glass.