Predictions...

Yes...another 40D thread...so stop reading now if you hate these threads.

After seeing the recent releases from Fuji and Pentax I'm starting to think that it would be wise at this point to start toning down expectations for the 40D. I think that there have been many of us hopefully anticipating that the 40D is going to be a revolutionary camera in terms of what it brings to the table. I've heard so many theories and wish lists thrown around that I think alot of us have started to believe our own insane musings. Given that as a starting point I have started to rethink what I expect from the 40D.

My own personal opinion:
Sensor: 10MP (Canon isn't going to rocket up to 12MP on this camera)

AF: Same 9Pt A sensor from 5D. No additional cross type sensors (a real pity on this one), Canon will claim that they have improved AF speed and accuracy, but the difference will be unnoticable.
FPS: 5
LCD: 2.5
Sensor Crop: 1.6
Max ISO: 6400 (Will not be a good as current ISO 3200)
DigicIII

Canon will claim improvements in Dynamic Range, but the results will not be obvious compared to current 30D images.

New features:

Some version of the highlight priority mode introduced on the 1dMKIII, although I'm sure we will find that there is some trade off like increased shadow noise.

Lens micro adjustment feature introduced on 1DMkIII although probably you woln't be able to store data for as many lenses, probably a cap of around 5.

Increased ability to capture multiple bracketed exposures allowing up to 5 bracketed exposures with +-5EV. Although certain advanced features such as the ability to take a 5 bracket exposure with a single shutter actuation or the ability to store the bracketed shots within a seperate subfolder, which would actually make it easier to take HDR exposures will not be available on the 40D, even though they are a simple firmware change.

Better ability to map buttons to user fuctions, more specifically the Direct Print button.

Features that we will not see:

In body IS

Weather-Sealing

In body external off camera flash control

Native DNG support.

Questions:

Whether Canon will make a switch to SD cards as a storage format? SD is getting pretty mature these days and is going to be the area where further developments are going to be focused. 1D series already offer SD as an option so pros can use a 40D backup body either way, but I really have no idea on this one.

Live View - I think it's a possibility. Some people love it some hate the idea, I think that theres about an 80% chance it'll appear on the 40D.

Whether canon will move to a new battery and extended grip. Canon loves to make older grips obsolete, which is darn annoying, so I suspect that we will see a new "high performance" battery and new grip to support the new battery. I suspect that the new battery will be chipped to provide additional battery information to the camera, this will also give Canon more time to sell OEM batteries before the battery is reverse engineered and knockoffs are available.

Final thoughts:

So all in all I predict that the changes between the 30D and 40D will be relatively minor. The price on 30D's will head a bit lower, but I suspect they are about at the bottom right now. The relatively minor changes will prompt many to decide between low priced 30D's and higher priced but newer featured 40D's. There will be no "Must Have" features on the 40D, it will simple be another step forward in refining an already useful and well established camera.

Sean

Might they add a way to keep dust off of the sensor that might be more effective than the XTi or just borrow that same concept? Or not have anything at all?
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30D ~ Sigma 70-200mm f2.8 ~ Canon 50mm f1.8

They'll almost certainly use the same method as the XTI, for a couple of reasons.

1.) The current solution is only designed to help with dust, not be a total solution. It seems to feel that role.

2.) Switching to a new method would imply that there is some problem with the current method.

3.) Canon isn't big on innovation in this area and will wait to see what methods others use.

Sean

Just these things you listed will be good enough for me to seriously consider upgrade from my 20D. 30D just don't cut it. If there is a measureable improvement of AF performance or better yet a few extra cross type sensor it will be a deal.

Good post. I think you have nailed it on the feature set of what would be "Reasonable".

The combination of all the features may make it a good upgrade to the 20D users. ISO 3200 equal to current ISO 1600 would be reason enough for quite a few folks to jump on board.

I know its not gonna happen, but in body IS is the right thing to do for the camera manufacturers, specially if you want to claim to be a technology leader. Its a shame when companies think in a very narrow perspective on what they should offer.

I think we have zero chance for live view or lens adjustment in the 40D.

Canon usually upgrades very stingily, and I think they will feel 10MP, anti dust, ISO 6400, and a few S/W features like button mapping and maybe a RAW button, with a bigger buffer and LCD is about all they need to throw to us this time.

They are still arguably ahead on high ISO noise, so with their fps and the big buffer I doubt they will want to give us much at all if they can avoid it.

Personally, I would like a control layout like the G7 (top mounted ISO dial) and a really nice GUI, plus the ability to take a decent flash picture every time. The 20D is a dog for that.

Then there are D200 features like the built in intervalometer, and off camera flash control like you mentioned...how about geotracking like the Sony P&S?

I suspect we will get little more than a 20D MkIII, and the reason I say that is they were stupid enough to come out with the 30D (20D MkII), and did little or nothing with the 400D to inspire anyone. If they put a really nice GUI into it like the G7 it will probably score some points, but I think they are even too thick to do that.
--
Elwood.

Light! Give me light!

Elwood_98034 said:

I think we have zero chance for live view or lens adjustment in the 40D.
--
Elwood.

Light! Give me light!

Click to expand...

You could very well be right on the money with these particularly in regard to LiveView. However, I do think the lens adjustment will be added. My reasoning is that lens adjustment allows Canon to be lazy, they don't have to nail the AF precision, a camera the front/back focuses can be adjusted into range, all without camera's being fixed at service centers under warranty. It's a solution that is far better for their bottom line than servicing camera's or fixing their quality control to prevent focusing issues in the first place.

Sean

RacerX2oo3 said:

Elwood_98034 said:

I think we have zero chance for live view or lens adjustment in the 40D.
--
Elwood.

Light! Give me light!

Click to expand...

You could very well be right on the money with these particularly in
regard to LiveView. However, I do think the lens adjustment will be
added. My reasoning is that lens adjustment allows Canon to be lazy,
they don't have to nail the AF precision, a camera the front/back
focuses can be adjusted into range, all without camera's being fixed
at service centers under warranty. It's a solution that is far
better for their bottom line than servicing camera's or fixing their
quality control to prevent focusing issues in the first place.

Sean

Click to expand...

I have put up with front focus for almost two years now, as I just couldn't be stuffed going to the hassle of having to send it back. If I do it now it will cost me even more money. I suspect the average mug will just run around firing off dreck, and never even try a lens calibration target, nor know what one was if they fell over it.

I see on here every day guys with five or six grands worth of gear who can hardly even figure out how to turn their camera on. I expect there is a very low return rate for focus issues, especially for the average user with EF lenses that are mostly like the bottoms of dirty milk bottles anyway.

There is a guy on the Lens Forum who has just about every L lens ever made, a few bodies (including XD Series), and I saw a posting of his wife once that was desperately in need of some PP due to his lack of ability and her lack of aesthetic appeal. But he has all the gear...

Canon know what they are doing. They will improve their QA when their rate of returns for warranty repair demands it. In the mean time their MTBF figures, and return rates will decide if we get reliability, focus adjustment, etc., or more of the same.

Something like live preview is a real bonus. It took about 5 years for the XXD series(30D) to get a spotmeter. We can whistle for that.

I have said it before, but there is something wrong at Canon when Costco are selling pallet loads of Nikon D40X's and D80's with two lens kits for about a grand or so. Someone is seriously asleep at the wheel there.

--
Elwood.

Light! Give me light!

Elwood_98034 said:

Something like live preview is a real bonus. It took about 5 years
for the XXD series(30D) to get a spotmeter. We can whistle for that.

I have said it before, but there is something wrong at Canon when
Costco are selling pallet loads of Nikon D40X's and D80's with two
lens kits for about a grand or so. Someone is seriously asleep at the
wheel there.

--
Elwood.

Click to expand...

Elwood,

I gotta agree with alot of what you're saying here, Canon has continued to perplex me with alot of the decisions that they have made lately. Nikon and Pentax have been busy added many of the camera features that users have been asking for. Canon seems to intent to bury useful camera features in obsure menuing systems and refuses to implement other simple usability features, in many ways they seem to be fixated on creating "film" cameras with digital sensors.

Sean

AdityaDatta said:

I know its not gonna happen, but in body IS is the right thing to do
for the camera manufacturers, specially if you want to claim to be a
technology leader. Its a shame when companies think in a very narrow
perspective on what they should offer.

Click to expand...

In-body IS is not leading techonology - it's leading gimmickry. The way Canon currently does IS is leading technology.

very well be there, and an lcd larger than 2.5, more likely 3". Why? because as much as we are ticked at them, they are not complete idiots (some parts are missing), and they will make it compete close to the D200 and above the D80/30D enough that it will appeal to quite a fewof us . Surely they are aware that a minor upgrade is not enough. Ex. the G7: ok, many griped about the lack of raw, but many of us, like myself, also like it quite a bit for it's long lens, etc. So I think in the end, (by Christmas), we will have a quite good new cam from the suits in Canon. There, now only if my wife could see that I can actually have a positive look at things sometimes.
--

The choices you've made in the past and the ones you make today create your tomorrow.

See Cuba & San Francisco at http://www.jonrp.smugmug.com

Of course, everything's speculation. I have a 30D, a KM 7D and a Sony A100. The Sony forum's ablaze with midrange speculation.

I think this is a good year for all of us. The D200 will get a replacement, Sony's bringing out a model in this range, Pentax and Olympus will be expanding upward, and the 30D replacement's coming ... and the 1D3 is out. I have a feeling Canon withheld all the goodies for the 1D3, partially because of timing and also because they didn't want to release lots of new tech in a lower-priced unit; I do think you'll see some nice 1D3 tech trickling down to the 30D replacement. And Canon knows the D200 successor will be upping the ante, so now's the time to make sure this model category isn't left behind for them. Although I don't need a 30D replacement, right now, I think quite a few companies are coming out with good surprises.

Rich

This is always an interesting discussion. I have a 30D and a 70-200 f/2.8 IS lens, and a Sony A100 and a KM (older) 80-200 f/2.8; they're both "L grade" glass. The other day my brother and I did some tests with both. We probably took 8-10 pics each - we were testing both detail resolution and IS in lower light, and we really couldn't pick a winner as far as IS went (of course the Canon locked focus faster in general, discounting the .5 second IS startup). Now I'm guessing that we'd find real differences at longer lengths, but that's usually the length limit I shoot at, so I can't give a real-world account on that. But I'd figure Canon's not going to provide in-body IS any time soon; it would be counter-productive both profit-wise and face-wise (in light of the IS ads they've been running).

Rich

Thanks for the test info Rich. It makes sense to have IS in the camera now. No reason to not have in the lens for longer focal lengths either. Too bad the bean counters at canon have a much louder say than the progressive thinkers. Long term, not having in body IS would hurt canon. The world has changed, the companies that dont would only be hurting them self.

RichV said:

This is always an interesting discussion. I have a 30D and a 70-200
f/2.8 IS lens, and a Sony A100 and a KM (older) 80-200 f/2.8; they're
both "L grade" glass. The other day my brother and I did some tests
with both. We probably took 8-10 pics each - we were testing both
detail resolution and IS in lower light, and we really couldn't pick
a winner as far as IS went (of course the Canon locked focus faster
in general, discounting the .5 second IS startup). Now I'm guessing
that we'd find real differences at longer lengths, but that's usually
the length limit I shoot at, so I can't give a real-world account on
that. But I'd figure Canon's not going to provide in-body IS any time
soon; it would be counter-productive both profit-wise and face-wise
(in light of the IS ads they've been running).

Rich

Click to expand...

You know, Canon owns so much of the market that I think they can stay on top for a long, long time without changing on this issue. I've got many more Minolta lenses than Canon, and I'm glad I've got two bodies that have built-in stabilization. The really big plus has to do with lens qualities. I've got some older lenses that have contrast/sharpness/color qualities I can't find in anybody's lenses, nowadays; in-body IS is a godsend for those.

Sony's the only probable competition, right now, with in-body IS. Their down side might have to do with taking over the KM business - their lens prices are just way too high, obviating the price benefits of their SSS. Granted, on the high end they're sticking with hand assembly and calibration, and they did try to bring out an entire line of lenses (even if they WERE already designed/produced by KM) in a short period of time, but if they don't normalize production and bring prices down, they have only themselves to blame for Canon wiping the floor with them regarding total system price. OTOH I wonder if there's a reason that I can't find failure rates for IS/VR lenses (all I've seen are accounts from Canon posters of being told by service to send their IS lenses in periodically).

It's just another discussion; it's certainly wise to stick with what we've each got if it's working for us.

Rich

jonrobertp said:

very well be there, and an lcd larger than 2.5, more likely 3".
Why? because as much as we are ticked at them, they are not complete
idiots

Click to expand...

John,

I'm doubting that we will see a 3" LCD, for one thing you slap a 3" LCD on there and you are rapidly running out of realestate on the back of the camera.... On a full body 1D3 that works fine, on a smaller xxD series you are going to have to lose something. That means it'll come down to 3"LCD or Quick Control Dial. If Canon ditches the QCD to add a 3" LCD I'll be completely annoyed. Additionally you put that big honking 3" LCD panel on the back and some genius at Canon HQ is going to decide that you don't really need an additional LCD panel on top of the Camera. Now suddenly the 40D has been transformed into the Rebel XTi MkII.

Now Canon could add say a 2.7" LCD as a compromise, but why? That means they have to purchase an additional part, and 90% of there lineup uses a 2.5" LCD including their high volume P&S segment so they are probably getting a great deal on them buying in volume.

I do suspect that Canon will add an LCD rotate feature on the 40D, my A570 IS has this feature and it is really nice, the camera uses the orientation sensor to determine which way you are holding the camera and rotates the image on the LCD. (If the 30D already has this feature you'll have to excuse me, I'm a 10D shooter.)

Sean

AdityaDatta said:

Thanks for the test info Rich. It makes sense to have IS in the
camera now. No reason to not have in the lens for longer focal
lengths either.

Click to expand...

There is a very good reason: The viewfinder. A stable view finder - especially at longer lengths - aids the ability to get a focus lock exactly where you want it. Plus you can see that the IS is working. It would kinda suck to have in body IS and find out it was turned off after you examine your photos.

There's just no perfect solution, is there?

With IS in the camera - at least with the KM and Sony I have - I can see indicator bars that show me stabilization is working and at what level it's compensating (it's a great practice aid!) - after a while, your subconscious mind really does pick up on the fact that there's something missing when it's off; I really don't have a problem focusing, but I'll take your word for it.

With IS in the lens, I know it's on based on the initial focus lag (yes, I use the limiter when it makes sense) - the lenses are also heavier, and I haven't yet done sharpness tests regarding IS on vs. off in bright light.

Rich

if true...I'll get a 5D (nt)

too small to see well. I dissable it in all of my bodies.
--

The choices you've made in the past and the ones you make today create your tomorrow.

See Cuba & San Francisco at http://www.jonrp.smugmug.com