X3 Announcement Impacts sales!!!!

Karl Guttag · Feb 12, 2002

"Easy to make is a relative term." Personally, I buy a lot of the LONG term arguments that CMOS will win out and high resolution cameras will continue to get less expesive, but it may not be as rosey as Foveon makes out.

One thing that limits imager cost reductions is the physical size of the device. The cost reductions in processors often come from die shrinks. Thus the "multiplier" (really cropping) factor would have to keep going up and imager size down to reduce cost at the same rates as microprocessors.

National Semi would not be my pick for a company famous for low cost production. They do have a background in Analog chips. It would be more interesing if they were talking UMC or TSMC.

Karl

David SL said:
You don't see today's large size CCD's/CMOS chips in P&S cameras
but that's mostly because they are far more expensive to produce
for the chip makers and buy for the camera makers. If the X3 chips
are as easy to produce and as cheap to produce as Foveon says they
are, then the costs will fall rapidly as volume ramps up (Just as
processor prices fall quickly in the months after a new Intel or
AMD chip is released). If the DC manufacturers beat a path to
Foveon's door they'll certianly be ramping up production, and over
near time reducing costs. It's a good thing they've partnered with
National Semi to make the chips, as they have extensive Fabrication
facilities. I am with you though that waiting or even hoping for X3
sensor based cameras (with mp greater than 3.5) other than the
announced Sigma is a wish not likely to be granted this year.

Regards,

Dsl

Peter G said:

Seth Brundle said:

Based on that I cant imagine why point and shoots will be more when
you are replacing a part which costs less to produce and doesnt
require as much software to implement.

Peter G said:

I would be willing to bet that this sensor won't appear in any
camera for MSRP of under $1750 US in 2002.

I would be happy to be wrong, but doubt it.

Peter

Paul W. Walters said:

This is a new, groundbreaking technology that is coming out WITH an
introduction of a camera to use it! The camera will be available
in May, it sounds like. By that time we should here of many other
cameras using this same 3.5 MP X3 sensor. And I'm sure they won't
all be SLR's.

Peter G said:

There are only 2 sensors due this year folks!

The SLR one that Sigma is using and a 1.3 MP Consumer sensor. So
which are you waiting for the SLR or the 1.3MP.

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--
DSL

--Karl

Eddie M. LaBar Jr · Feb 12, 2002

Seth Brundle said:
Um, I understand that this means new cameras are coming out that
render current ones obsolete - and I'm selling my Dimage 7 on Ebay
tommorrow.

Hated that camera anyway.

I just purchased an out of the box e10 at Best Buy for $599 11 days ago to replace a Sony DSC75 that I've owned for less than 5 months. At the time, they told me I could bring it back if I changed my mind within 14 days without charging me a restocking fee. Guess what I did after hearing the exciting news about the X3? I returned the e10 and will start saving my pennies for this unbelievable camera.

Ed

Karl Guttag · Feb 12, 2002

Seth Brundle said:
Well, Foveon says it costs 1/5 the price of a conventional CCD. I
assume this is true since they have already manufactured them.

Then I guess Simga or Foveon is making a tremdous profit with the $3,000 Simga camera.

Seth Brundle said:
I dont see how a traditional CCD, which uses algorythms to
determine all the colors it cant see (ie about half!) would be
superior in any situation.

Probably because you don't understand image processing and how images work.

Seth Brundle said:
Why, as a digital photographer who has actually seen real test
pictures, are you so pessimistic?

I'm not being pessimistic, I am being REALISTIC. I know how product announcements work, particularly those make by start ups that may be looking to go public. They tend to put a very rosy picture on things.

There were a few stock analysis saying that things were fishy at Enron long before it became obvious to the many analyst that said that these guys were pessimistic realized that Enron was alread a disaster. Please, I'm not saying that Foveon is another Enron, just point out that people are going crazy over it and they don't even know what it is yet.

These are a few control pictures taken by the company to make them look good. There is NOTHING wrong with that, but I don't jump to conclusions about a product just based on what a company says about itself.

I have taken about 15,000 pictures since getting my D30 and I can't remember more than a very few of them that I worried even noticed a Bayer Filtering causeing a moire problem. All of a sudden people are talking like this is the only thing limiting a digital camera today. I care a LOT more about low noise at Higher ISO, autofocus, and frames per second, than I care about the Bayer filter issues.

Karl--Karl

Joe Schwartz · Feb 12, 2002

Seth Brundle said:
Supposedly one significant advantage of this chip is that it can
focus digitally rather then moving optics - Foveon says moving
optics to focus a digital camera is 'stupid'.

I think you misinterpreted that quote. If I recall correctly (and now I can't find the quote to verify it), Mead said that the way digital cameras currently autofocus is stupid. I interpret that as saying that it's stupid to use a separate autofocus sensor, instead of using a single image sensor. But I don't think he meant that moving optics is stupid.

AVJsn · Feb 12, 2002

Impact will be on Professional & Prosumer that can wait for new models with X3 technology (i.e. if they don't have immediate need for work or travel ...etc.)

For "general" consumer, they may not even understand the "basic" components of a digicam --- how will they concern whether its contain X3 or not !?

Just for example in Home Theater --- people may only care 5.1 surround, but may not aware the difference between Dolby Digital vs DTS Surround (not to mention the new DTS 24/96 format !)

As most of the turnover is on the "consumer" market --- the total sales volumn will not be affected much !

Jason.

zorro said:
Headlines for the next 6 Months!!!!

"Sales of digital cameras/video cams have plummetted these last
months as tens of thousands of consumers postpone buying till there
favorite camera companies introduce cams using the new X3
Technology"

Please comment on what you think this announcement's impact on
sales will be.

We already have a few posters here on these forums saying they will
now wait to purchase.

Do you think this will be a slow adoption like the start of cd's or
a fast revolution like DVD Players.

Have you checked the price of VCRs lately? They can't give em away
at $59.95

Karl Guttag · Feb 12, 2002

Joe,

That's the way I read the quote too (replacing the extra focus sensor) and I would agree with Mead that there are a lot of things that are not being done that could be done with a "smarter" sensor, but focusing light is NOT one of them.

What is killing me is how so many people are seeing this technology as solving every problem known to photography. They are reading all kinds of things into it and taking everything that is said at face value rather than looking at it as a marketing/advertising campaign. Once again, I am not saying that they are necessarily lying, they are just telling the positive side of their technology and the possibilities for it.

Karl

Joe Schwartz said:
Seth Brundle said:

Supposedly one significant advantage of this chip is that it can
focus digitally rather then moving optics - Foveon says moving
optics to focus a digital camera is 'stupid'.

Click to expand...

I think you misinterpreted that quote. If I recall correctly (and
now I can't find the quote to verify it), Mead said that the way
digital cameras currently autofocus is stupid. I interpret that as
saying that it's stupid to use a separate autofocus sensor, instead
of using a single image sensor. But I don't think he meant that
moving optics is stupid.

--Karl

Seth Brundle · Feb 12, 2002

Man you really know how to suck the fun out of anything, dont you?

Karlg said:
Karl Guttag said:

Well, Foveon says it costs 1/5 the price of a conventional CCD. I
assume this is true since they have already manufactured them.

Click to expand...

Then I guess Simga or Foveon is making a tremdous profit with the
$3,000 Simga camera.

Karl Guttag said:

I dont see how a traditional CCD, which uses algorythms to
determine all the colors it cant see (ie about half!) would be
superior in any situation.

Click to expand...

Probably because you don't understand image processing and how
images work.

Karl Guttag said:

Why, as a digital photographer who has actually seen real test
pictures, are you so pessimistic?

Click to expand...

I'm not being pessimistic, I am being REALISTIC. I know how
product announcements work, particularly those make by start ups
that may be looking to go public. They tend to put a very rosy
picture on things.

There were a few stock analysis saying that things were fishy at
Enron long before it became obvious to the many analyst that said
that these guys were pessimistic realized that Enron was alread a
disaster. Please, I'm not saying that Foveon is another Enron,
just point out that people are going crazy over it and they don't
even know what it is yet.

These are a few control pictures taken by the company to make them
look good. There is NOTHING wrong with that, but I don't jump to
conclusions about a product just based on what a company says about
itself.

I have taken about 15,000 pictures since getting my D30 and I can't
remember more than a very few of them that I worried even noticed a
Bayer Filtering causeing a moire problem. All of a sudden people
are talking like this is the only thing limiting a digital camera
today. I care a LOT more about low noise at Higher ISO,
autofocus, and frames per second, than I care about the Bayer
filter issues.

Karl
--
Karl

bill pitcher · Feb 12, 2002

Here's the exact quote from http://www.business2.com/articles/web/print/0,1650,37797,FF.html

Mead sees another upside. Later versions of X3 will be able to handle processes like auto-focus directly on the chip, instead of with the complicated optics that film cameras -- and most digital cameras -- use. "The way cameras do auto-focus today is just stupid," Mead says, with characteristic bluntness.

Bill
http://www.goldenbcphotography.com

Joe Schwartz said:
Seth Brundle said:

Supposedly one significant advantage of this chip is that it can
focus digitally rather then moving optics - Foveon says moving
optics to focus a digital camera is 'stupid'.

Click to expand...

I think you misinterpreted that quote. If I recall correctly (and
now I can't find the quote to verify it), Mead said that the way
digital cameras currently autofocus is stupid. I interpret that as
saying that it's stupid to use a separate autofocus sensor, instead
of using a single image sensor. But I don't think he meant that
moving optics is stupid.

Seth Brundle · Feb 12, 2002

Karl Guttag said:
I'm not being pessimistic, I am being REALISTIC. I know how
product announcements work, particularly those make by start ups
that may be looking to go public. They tend to put a very rosy
picture on things.

So the photographs the DPReview took themselves with the prototype camera - the photos DPR compares to '35mm high-quality slide scans without the grain' - these appeared simply as a result of the sheer will of Foveon's PR department?

Man I have to hire them for my business!

Karl Guttag · Feb 12, 2002

Seth Brundle said:
Man you really know how to suck the fun out of anything, dont you?

LOL,

I am an engineer, and a good engineer likes to analyze everything and take nothing for granted. When a bunch of us went to lunch one day and started analyzing how the salad bar was organized.

"Good marketing" does not "lie," they just don't talk about their disadvantages. I have learned from years in the industry to look for was is NOT SAID. People that want to "believe" tend to fill the holes in what is not said with favorable things. I usually find that when something obvious is left out in describing a new product, it is usually not by accident.

Karl
--Karl

Seth Brundle · Feb 12, 2002

Hmmmm...hard to tell what he means - your right - he doesnt say 'MOVING optics'...this was from Business 2.0...Mead also specifies 'later versions'...

"Mead sees another upside. Later versions of X3 will be able to handle processes like auto-focus directly on the chip, instead of with the complicated optics that film cameras -- and most digital cameras -- use. "The way cameras do auto-focus today is just stupid," Mead says, with characteristic bluntness. "

http://www.business2.com/articles/mag/0,1640,37734,FF.html

Seth

Joe Schwartz said:
Seth Brundle said:

Supposedly one significant advantage of this chip is that it can
focus digitally rather then moving optics - Foveon says moving
optics to focus a digital camera is 'stupid'.

Click to expand...

I think you misinterpreted that quote. If I recall correctly (and
now I can't find the quote to verify it), Mead said that the way
digital cameras currently autofocus is stupid. I interpret that as
saying that it's stupid to use a separate autofocus sensor, instead
of using a single image sensor. But I don't think he meant that
moving optics is stupid.

Karl Guttag · Feb 12, 2002

I just want to see what the imager will do over a range of shooting conditions and see how quality and cost compare between multiple real products. You really need to compare "shipping" product to "shipping" product. Some products delay their ship date by months and even years.

It is a self dillusions to compare something that is brand new prototype from one company to a 1+ year old product from another.

Karl

Seth Brundle said:
Seth Brundle said:

I'm not being pessimistic, I am being REALISTIC. I know how
product announcements work, particularly those make by start ups
that may be looking to go public. They tend to put a very rosy
picture on things.

Click to expand...

So the photographs the DPReview took themselves with the prototype
camera - the photos DPR compares to '35mm high-quality slide scans
without the grain' - these appeared simply as a result of the sheer
will of Foveon's PR department?

Man I have to hire them for my business!

--Karl

Brad Wright · Feb 12, 2002

Karlg said:
today. I care a LOT more about low noise at Higher ISO,
autofocus, and frames per second, than I care about the Bayer
filter issues.

I, like you, care more about a higher ISO than bayer filter issues BUT I wonder if they aren't related. It makes sense that if a camera isn't filtering away 2/3 of the light it should be able to have a higher ISO. Hopefully the X3 will give us a higher ISO.

You guys can go back to your discussion now

--One should not theorize before one has data -Sherlock Holmes

David Blehar · Feb 12, 2002

Eddie,

I think you'll be waiting a long time for a camera to come around with the function of the camera you returned with the X3 sensor priced anywhere near $600. I would go back and see if you can still get it. Not that I'm trying to plug the e10, but geez, $600.

-David

Eddie M. LaBar Jr said:
Seth Brundle said:

Um, I understand that this means new cameras are coming out that
render current ones obsolete - and I'm selling my Dimage 7 on Ebay
tommorrow.

Hated that camera anyway.

Click to expand...

I just purchased an out of the box e10 at Best Buy for $599 11 days
ago to replace a Sony DSC75 that I've owned for less than 5 months.
At the time, they told me I could bring it back if I changed my
mind within 14 days without charging me a restocking fee. Guess
what I did after hearing the exciting news about the X3? I
returned the e10 and will start saving my pennies for this
unbelievable camera.

Ed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://webpages.charter.net/blehardhttp://www.communityzero.com/e10critics

Matti Jarventausta · Feb 13, 2002

As I explained there migth be a moment when the fuzz about the new technology makes people (the active amateurs) somewhat hesitate and think on more time about their buying decisions leading to prosumer market freeze... for sometime... till there is more to discover about the X3. After a while when things cool down, people make up their mind either way...

How many people

Karl Guttag said:
are going to go with a Sigma Camera that only works with Sigma
Lenses with 3.5MP imager when Canon has a 6MP camera that can take
Canon and Sigma and many other 3rd Party lenses. It is going to
take a LOT of marketing to explain to people why the Sigma pixels
are so much better.

Not that much marketing needed for active amateurs. In fact I think people are so much aware of things the marketing itself has not that much influence. These kind of forums and sites all along are the source of information that are basis for many investments. User feedback is highly appreciated around here.

Matti Jarventausta · Feb 13, 2002

CRT_Leech said:
I was going to get the G2. I was happy with the G1, but I had to
return it for financial reasons (lost my job a week after getting
it LOL).

Talking about positive attitude in life!

Take care.

John Mankos · Feb 13, 2002

My guess would be that the 'big' camera manufacturers are locked into buying agreements with the major chipmakers of ccd devices, and didn't want to/weren't able to make a commitment just yet.

Does Sigma have any other Digital products? They may have been waiting for a new generation of sensor, such as this, to make the leap....

Just one possibility....

Seth Brundle said:
Blokey Bloggs said:

Yes. I cannot imagine anyone who does not 'need' a new camera
wanting to buy asnything until this X3 is reviewed and used. Sigma
pulled a smart one here.

I find it hard to believe that Canon Nikon Olympus etc are not
aware of this type of technology. They must be working on something
similar or already using X3. If not then they are now at Foveon's
door to buy. If the latter then they must be panicking for their
investments look a little unsafe.

I fervently hope that this leads to some sanity over pricing. So
far, it has a monumental rip-off.
--
Blokey
http://www.pbase.com/blokey/galleries

Click to expand...

John Mankos · Feb 13, 2002

AVJason said:
For "general" consumer, they may not even understand the "basic"
components of a digicam --- how will they concern whether its
contain X3 or not !?

Just for example in Home Theater --- people may only care 5.1
surround, but may not aware the difference between Dolby Digital vs
DTS Surround (not to mention the new DTS 24/96 format !)

As most of the turnover is on the "consumer" market --- the total
sales volumn will not be affected much !

Jason.

zorro said:

Headlines for the next 6 Months!!!!

"Sales of digital cameras/video cams have plummetted these last
months as tens of thousands of consumers postpone buying till there
favorite camera companies introduce cams using the new X3
Technology"

Please comment on what you think this announcement's impact on
sales will be.

We already have a few posters here on these forums saying they will
now wait to purchase.

Do you think this will be a slow adoption like the start of cd's or
a fast revolution like DVD Players.

Have you checked the price of VCRs lately? They can't give em away
at $59.95

Click to expand...

John Mankos · Feb 13, 2002

John Mankos said:
AVJason said:

For "general" consumer, they may not even understand the "basic"
components of a digicam --- how will they concern whether its
contain X3 or not !?

Just for example in Home Theater --- people may only care 5.1
surround, but may not aware the difference between Dolby Digital vs
DTS Surround (not to mention the new DTS 24/96 format !)

As most of the turnover is on the "consumer" market --- the total
sales volumn will not be affected much !

Jason.

zorro said:

Headlines for the next 6 Months!!!!

"Sales of digital cameras/video cams have plummetted these last
months as tens of thousands of consumers postpone buying till there
favorite camera companies introduce cams using the new X3
Technology"

Please comment on what you think this announcement's impact on
sales will be.

We already have a few posters here on these forums saying they will
now wait to purchase.

Do you think this will be a slow adoption like the start of cd's or
a fast revolution like DVD Players.

Have you checked the price of VCRs lately? They can't give em away
at $59.95

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

David SL · Feb 13, 2002

Karl,

Karlg said:
"Easy to make is a relative term." Personally, I buy a lot of the
LONG term arguments that CMOS will win out and high resolution
cameras will continue to get less expesive, but it may not be as
rosey as Foveon makes out.

One thing that limits imager cost reductions is the physical size
of the device. The cost reductions in processors often come from
die shrinks. Thus the "multiplier" (really cropping) factor would
have to keep going up and imager size down to reduce cost at the
same rates as microprocessors.

True, but the price drop will occur faster then existing image sensors fall in price given X3's lower starting production cost(as claimed by Foveon) in comparison to bayer pattern CCD's/CMOS sensors. Also, remember there are no color filters on these chips, including these filters I am sure was a substantial percentage of the high cost of producing the current CCD/CMOS sensors. (you can't mask and etch a color filter as far as I am aware.) You are correct that the cost reduction over time in being able to reduce die size and use less silicon per chip is not here, but the design itself virtually enables the use of less silicon since each photosite -pixel is more efficient at a smaller size. (Arguably, about 3x more efficient to be precise.)

Over time this all adds up to a faster(not at the "same" rate of PC processors I didn't mean to imply that in the last post, but far faster than current bayer pattern sensor tech.) drop in price as volume ramps up than current bayer CCD's/CMOS chips are capable of.

Karl Guttag said:
National Semi would not be my pick for a company famous for low
cost production.

This could be an indication of just how cheap it is to produce these new chips, or the partnership entails national absorbing some costs now in return for high profits later.

Karl Guttag said:
They do have a background in Analog chips. It
would be more interesing if they were talking UMC or TSMC.

I think a chief factor in Foveon's selection of them is that they can produce in volume, (being one of the top 5 semiconductor makers in the world.) they can do that as well as any of the other big chip makers. Also, they have a standing technology partnership with TSMC, who's to say how that might be leveraged to produce X3 chips.

I am very interested to see how this plays out.

Regards,

Dsl

Karl Guttag said:
Karl

David SL said:

You don't see today's large size CCD's/CMOS chips in P&S cameras
but that's mostly because they are far more expensive to produce
for the chip makers and buy for the camera makers. If the X3 chips
are as easy to produce and as cheap to produce as Foveon says they
are, then the costs will fall rapidly as volume ramps up (Just as
processor prices fall quickly in the months after a new Intel or
AMD chip is released). If the DC manufacturers beat a path to
Foveon's door they'll certianly be ramping up production, and over
near time reducing costs. It's a good thing they've partnered with
National Semi to make the chips, as they have extensive Fabrication
facilities. I am with you though that waiting or even hoping for X3
sensor based cameras (with mp greater than 3.5) other than the
announced Sigma is a wish not likely to be granted this year.

Regards,

Dsl

Peter G said:

Seth Brundle said:

Based on that I cant imagine why point and shoots will be more when
you are replacing a part which costs less to produce and doesnt
require as much software to implement.

Peter G said:

I would be willing to bet that this sensor won't appear in any
camera for MSRP of under $1750 US in 2002.

I would be happy to be wrong, but doubt it.

Peter

Paul W. Walters said:

This is a new, groundbreaking technology that is coming out WITH an
introduction of a camera to use it! The camera will be available
in May, it sounds like. By that time we should here of many other
cameras using this same 3.5 MP X3 sensor. And I'm sure they won't
all be SLR's.

Peter G said:

There are only 2 sensors due this year folks!

The SLR one that Sigma is using and a 1.3 MP Consumer sensor. So
which are you waiting for the SLR or the 1.3MP.

Click to expand...

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--
DSL

Click to expand...

--
Karl

--DSL

X3 Announcement Impacts sales!!!!

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