Japanese DSLR sales (update), and lessons therein

greentoe · Dec 19, 2006

BCN has released new DSLR share figures for the Japanese market:

http://bcnranking.jp/flash/09-00011835.html

The share graph is halfway down the page...
(the share graph key reads N,C,P,S,O top to bottom.)
BTW, BCN does't seem to like us directly linking their graphs anymore :-(

Lessons to be learned (acutally relearned as they are already well known):
1) quickly introducing new models increases your share;
2) your factory counts.

Note that with the introdution of the D40 Nikon has been able to eek ahead of Canon... unlike Canon, Nikon (in Japan anyway) currently doesn't depend on one or two models to carry the bulk of sales, but they are carried by the D40, D80, and still the D200 and even still a bit by the D50.

Pentax could not fill all the pre-orders of the K10D here in the first shipment, which also means there are none currently available to buy in the stores, duing the single most important month of the year for these kind of sales. You see the K10D blip, but immediately share falls down back to the K100D level.... your factory counts. You can't deliver what you don't have...

Other notes: Olympus has flatlined. Let's see... the Oly colors are blue, yes? "Code Blue" comes to mind... Fits what I see when I am in the stores... basically the warm bodies are huddled around the Nikon, Canon, and even Pentax displays.

-gt

Franka T.L. · Dec 19, 2006

a System need to be a system, and that means variety of lens , and different bodies for different customers. Sony A-100D open wityh a bang and yet Pentax, even late to the game and consistently out marketed by Sony prevail. The DS2, DL2 and the K100D also bear a significant part of the sales too.

Its no surprise that Oly come last of the big fixe. the E-330 simply do not have the might against others, and OLY / Panasonic / Leica might sound a mighty trio. The fact remain that the whole 4/3 lineup is still needing a lot to fill the market and when customer do not find a product that fit them, they just go fro other brand ( also far easier on their pocket especially after lens is factored in )

--

Franka -

nickleback · Dec 19, 2006

greentoe said:
Note that with the introdution of the D40 Nikon has been able to
eek ahead of Canon... unlike Canon, Nikon (in Japan anyway)
currently doesn't depend on one or two models to carry the bulk of
sales, but they are carried by the D40, D80, and still the D200 and
even still a bit by the D50.

The 30D is no longer competitive, it's obvious in the table. Interesting the D200 is #4, I guess the economy in Japan isn't so bad after all.

greentoe said:
Other notes: Olympus has flatlined.

I gues the E500 didn't excite the masses.

--
Seen in a fortune cookie:
Fear is the darkroom where negatives are developed

greentoe · Dec 19, 2006

nickleback said:
The 30D is no longer competitive, it's obvious in the table.
Interesting the D200 is #4, I guess the economy in Japan isn't so
bad after all.

Well, the general consensus here is the 'recovery' is barely a recovery... we are not in a recession, but consumption is not (and probably never will be) growing again. That is probably a good thing in the long run....

While the Japanese market for cameras is large compared to many nations, it is still small enough to have significant variations week to week. The D200 may be strong the week of that ranking, but next week it won't be. The 5D had an amazingly strong week not long ago... which I speculated was due to an institutional purchase.

nickleback said:
nickleback said:

Other notes: Olympus has flatlined.

Click to expand...

I gues the E500 didn't excite the masses.

It sort of did when it came out... but that was ancient history in Japanese electronics stores' timelines. You can see from the Sony curve how one model's popularity decays over time. Basically, it is 6 months till buyers get in the 'what have you done for me lately' mode.

-gt

dnjake · Dec 19, 2006

Of course we don't know how the upper end Canon cameras figure in the mix. But my first take from these numbers is that Canon is doing even worse than I thought. It looks like even their 50% share is history. Clearly the big story is Nikon's expanding share. But I would also see both the Sony and Pentax numbers as a postive for them. Clearly neither are ready to challenge Canon or Nikon at this point. But both are selling a large number of cameras. For Sony its certainly many more DSLR's than last year. Although I don't know Pentax's numbers from last year, I suspect they are also seeing considerable improvement in their business. It will take a few more years to see where they wind up in the market. They probably will still be well behind Canon and Nikon. But as long as they can each get up to 10% of the market, we will probably see them around for the long haul.

I doubt that Canon is going to be satisfied with this kind of performance. It will be interesting to see how they try to turn it around next year.
--
David Jacobson
http://www.pbase.com/dnjake

mpixel · Dec 19, 2006

Thanks for this greentoe.

greentoe said:
BCN has released new DSLR share figures for the Japanese market:

http://bcnranking.jp/flash/09-00011835.html

The share graph is halfway down the page...
(the share graph key reads N,C,P,S,O top to bottom.)
BTW, BCN does't seem to like us directly linking their graphs
anymore :-(

Lessons to be learned (acutally relearned as they are already well
known):
1) quickly introducing new models increases your share;
2) your factory counts.

Note that with the introdution of the D40 Nikon has been able to
eek ahead of Canon... unlike Canon, Nikon (in Japan anyway)
currently doesn't depend on one or two models to carry the bulk of
sales, but they are carried by the D40, D80, and still the D200 and
even still a bit by the D50.

Pentax could not fill all the pre-orders of the K10D here in the
first shipment, which also means there are none currently available
to buy in the stores, duing the single most important month of the
year for these kind of sales. You see the K10D blip, but
immediately share falls down back to the K100D level.... your
factory counts. You can't deliver what you don't have...

Other notes: Olympus has flatlined. Let's see... the Oly colors
are blue, yes? "Code Blue" comes to mind... Fits what I see when
I am in the stores... basically the warm bodies are huddled around
the Nikon, Canon, and even Pentax displays.

-gt

--
GMT

nickleback · Dec 19, 2006

dnjake said:
I doubt that Canon is going to be satisfied with this kind of
performance. It will be interesting to see how they try to turn it
around next year.

Yes, especially since I'll be in the market for a new Canon body.

--
Seen in a fortune cookie:
Fear is the darkroom where negatives are developed

Doug Pardee · Dec 19, 2006

greentoe said:
Basically, it is 6 months till buyers get in the 'what have you
done for me lately' mode.

This might be the most depressing lesson. Looking at recent announcement dates:
May 22: Pentax K100D and K110D
June 1: Nikon D2Xs
June 5: Sony A100
August 9: Nikon D80
August 24: Canon XTi/400D
September 13: Pentax K10D
September 14: Olympus E-400
November 6: Nikon D40

There definitely seems to be a causal relationship between introducing a new DSLR model and temporarily increased sales figures. Furthermore, failure to introduce new models on a timely basis (other members of Sony Alpha line, US model for Olympus) seems to depress sales.

It looks like planned obsolescence is going to continue to be the norm, and we're going to see regular "upgrades" whether we need them or not.

Two Truths · Dec 19, 2006

Franka T.L. said:
a System need to be a system, and that means variety of lens , and
different bodies for different customers. Sony A-100D open wityh a
bang and yet Pentax, even late to the game and consistently out
marketed by Sony prevail. The DS2, DL2 and the K100D also bear a
significant part of the sales too.

I don't get your point; the graphs show Sony overall ahead of Pentax... and that's with only one model from Sony, whereas Pentax has three released this year.

For about a third of the graph; Pentax has had more sales than Sony, with Pentax's highest share at any point being about 20%. However; for about two thirds of the graph, Sony has had more sales than Pentax, with Sony's highest share at any point being about 35%.

As for Pentax "coming out on top at the end"... well they have just released a new camera, so I would expect some kind of blip. Sony released their camera six months ago already.

Franka T.L. said:
Its no surprise that Oly come last of the big fixe. the E-330
simply do not have the might against others, and OLY / Panasonic /
Leica might sound a mighty trio. The fact remain that the whole 4/3
lineup is still needing a lot to fill the market and when customer
do not find a product that fit them, they just go fro other brand (
also far easier on their pocket especially after lens is factored
in )

--

Franka -

--
Stuart / the Two Truths
http://www.flickr.com/photos/two_truths/
http://two-truths.deviantart.com/gallery/

caveguru · Dec 19, 2006

Curious if anyone knows why the market shares don't match the hit counters on the DPR website? Is it maybe because Canon is actually stronger outside of Japan, especially the US?

Frank

Two Truths · Dec 19, 2006

Doug Pardee said:
greentoe said:

Basically, it is 6 months till buyers get in the 'what have you
done for me lately' mode.

Click to expand...

This might be the most depressing lesson. Looking at recent
announcement dates:
May 22: Pentax K100D and K110D
June 1: Nikon D2Xs
June 5: Sony A100
August 9: Nikon D80
August 24: Canon XTi/400D
September 13: Pentax K10D
September 14: Olympus E-400
November 6: Nikon D40
There definitely seems to be a causal relationship between
introducing a new DSLR model and temporarily increased sales
figures. Furthermore, failure to introduce new models on a timely
basis (other members of Sony Alpha line, US model for Olympus)
seems to depress sales.

Aye; Sony has been in the dSLR business for an entire six months, and they've not yet released a second or third model yet ... mmm...

Obviously they should have magically released an entry level camera, a sub-entry level camera, a semi-pro camera, and a full-frame pro camera - plus - thirty lenses and an extensive flash system. All in six months.

--
Stuart / the Two Truths
http://www.flickr.com/photos/two_truths/
http://two-truths.deviantart.com/gallery/

nickleback · Dec 19, 2006

Two Truths said:
Aye; Sony has been in the dSLR business for an entire six months,
and they've not yet released a second or third model yet ... mmm...

Obviously they should have magically released an entry level
camera, a sub-entry level camera, a semi-pro camera, and a
full-frame pro camera - plus - thirty lenses and an extensive flash
system. All in six months.

Given that they started by acquiring a company with a couple of cameras, a bunch of lenses and an extensive flash system, yes, it is a bit disappointing. And besides, it isn't 6 months. It's been 17 months since K-M and Sony announced cooperation on DSLRs:

http://www.dpreview.com/news/0507/05071902kmsony.asp

and 11 months since K-M threw in the towel and handed their camera business to Sony:

http://www.dpreview.com/news/0601/06011901konicaminoltaout.asp

--
Seen in a fortune cookie:
Fear is the darkroom where negatives are developed

greentoe · Dec 19, 2006

dpreview hits are of course from those who read English, and I believe the biggest group of the readers are from the US.

Those graphs in that report are samplings... both in space and time. To get a better idea of what is going on the graphs need to be smoothed... and when done you will see changes happen slowly, but with a definite driving force being the introduction of a new model.

The Japanese in particular are "rank" conscious and "newness" conscious... heck, everytime I go into Yodobashi they have rearranged the floor... can't let a week go buy without changing something.

Also, different companies price differently in the various regions. CanonUSA is very aggresive in pricing (expecially promotions), while NikonUSA seems to like to premium price the Nikon products compared to Japanese Nikon prices.

-gt

Doug Pardee · Dec 19, 2006

Two Truths said:
Obviously they should have magically released an entry level
camera, a sub-entry level camera, a semi-pro camera, and a
full-frame pro camera - plus - thirty lenses and an extensive flash
system. All in six months.

Of course not all of that, but maybe they could have done SOMETHING in the past six months?

The original announcement was for "single lens reflex (D- SLR) cameras that will be launched worldwide this summer." Cameras, plural. Summer has come and gone. Most tellingly, Photokina has come and gone with nothing new even being hinted at.

The last press release from Sony on the Alpha system was the June 6 announcement of the A-100. Since then, absolute silence.

Two Truths · Dec 19, 2006

nickleback said:
Two Truths said:

Aye; Sony has been in the dSLR business for an entire six months,
and they've not yet released a second or third model yet ... mmm...

Obviously they should have magically released an entry level
camera, a sub-entry level camera, a semi-pro camera, and a
full-frame pro camera - plus - thirty lenses and an extensive flash
system. All in six months.

Click to expand...

Given that they started by acquiring a company with a couple of
cameras, a bunch of lenses and an extensive flash system, yes, it
is a bit disappointing. And besides, it isn't 6 months. It's been
17 months since K-M and Sony announced cooperation on DSLRs:

http://www.dpreview.com/news/0507/05071902kmsony.asp

and 11 months since K-M threw in the towel and handed their camera
business to Sony:

http://www.dpreview.com/news/0601/06011901konicaminoltaout.asp

Well; it took Pentax TWO YEARS to release an actual-different model - so - even if Sony has been co-operating with Minolta for a-year-and-a-half, they still have a while yet to go.

The thing is, it wouldn't make any sense for Sony to release a full system straight away.
1. Nobody has that sort of production facilities available
2. The quality control would be appauling
3. The premptive investment involved would be insane
4. By the time they had everything ready the market would've changed
5. Their own models would be competing directly with each other
6. The market wouldn't trust their higher-up models
etc

They have to stagger the release of their models, and that will be over a period longer than six months.

Next year... expect a semi-pro to compete with the Nikon D200 and whatever Canon has out by then (40D?) ... and expect about ten new lenses (split Sony and Zeiss).

A pro camera can't be too many years away; the Zeiss ZA primes demostrate that much, at least. (From reports; both have the biggest image circles of any 35mm-type lens, with the best MTF charts.)

Sony isn't making those sorts of lenses for the Alpha 100...
--
Stuart / the Two Truths
http://www.flickr.com/photos/two_truths/
http://two-truths.deviantart.com/gallery/

Two Truths · Dec 19, 2006

Doug Pardee said:
Two Truths said:

Obviously they should have magically released an entry level
camera, a sub-entry level camera, a semi-pro camera, and a
full-frame pro camera - plus - thirty lenses and an extensive flash
system. All in six months.

Click to expand...

Of course not all of that, but maybe they could have done SOMETHING
in the past six months?

The original announcement was for "single lens reflex (D- SLR)
cameras that will be launched worldwide this summer." Cameras,
plural. Summer has come and gone. Most tellingly, Photokina has
come and gone with nothing new even being hinted at.

The last press release from Sony on the Alpha system was the June 6
announcement of the A-100. Since then, absolute silence.

You are forgetting that during that time the system has been released in a staggered cascade ... we haven't yet reached the end of that. At the same time; the demand for some lenses exceeded Sony's expectations, and they had to re-evaluate their production lines.

Sony has sold Alpha bodies and lenses far quicker than Minolta ever did with the 5D or 7D.

--
Stuart / the Two Truths
http://www.flickr.com/photos/two_truths/
http://two-truths.deviantart.com/gallery/

nickleback · Dec 19, 2006

Two Truths said:
Well; it took Pentax TWO YEARS to release an actual-different model

Pentax is a wee bit smaller than Sony.

Two Truths said:
so - even if Sony has been co-operating with Minolta for

a-year-and-a-half, they still have a while yet to go.

Sony has had the whole shebang for almost a year.

Two Truths said:
They have to stagger the release of their models, and that will be
over a period longer than six months.

There is staggering, and then there is crawling. I think Sony is in the later category. The window of opportunity is rapidly closing. Just ask Olympus.

Two Truths said:
Sony isn't making those sorts of lenses for the Alpha 100...

Contax didn't make their fine Zeiss lenses just for the N Digital either.

--
Seen in a fortune cookie:
Fear is the darkroom where negatives are developed

PhotoTraveler · Dec 19, 2006

Using things like website hit counters is a horribly inaccurate way to gauge things. That's why they don't match.

And yes, different parts of the world will have very different numbers. My understanding was Minolta was very strong in Japan even up to the end, continually staying very close with Nikon. They were also strong in eastern Europe. But other spots on the planet, barely there.

Scott Eaton · Dec 19, 2006

Franka T.L. said:
Franka T.L. said:

Franka T.L. said:

Franka T.L. said:

Franka T.L. said:

Franka T.L. said:

The fact remain that the whole 4/3 lineup is still needing a lot to fill the market

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

That's being more generous than it needs to be. Let' see, you have a camera line-up (Olympus) where the recently introduced models cost about as much as entry level but superior imaging dSLRs with total system prices about the same as any other mainstream dSLR. Fuji then introduces a line-up of digicams with at least equal image quality at a fraction the price. What are we confused about?

I've got money on Oly giving up on the 4/3 line and releasing a standard APS model at some point, if anything out of pure desperation. Raucus forums of 4/3 users don't make share holders happy nor generate cash flow.

Thom Hogan · Dec 20, 2006

PhotoTraveler said:
Using things like website hit counters is a horribly inaccurate way
to gauge things.

No more so than quoting weekly sales figures from a subset of Japanese sales outlets ; )

PhotoTraveler said:
That's why they don't match.

The don't match because they measure different things and have different audiences, simple as that.

--
Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D50, D70, D100, D200, D1 series, D2h, D2x, S2 Pro
http://www.bythom.com

Japanese DSLR sales (update), and lessons therein

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