DSLR longevity / It's HERE!! ,,,but what have we GOT?

Calling all gurus ;-),

I've seen several comments by others, which mirror my own thoughts, saying essentially; "When/if the new 1D(S, HR,whatever) finally gets here, with the features and resolution I'm waiting-for, THEN I'll spend the necessary big-bucks, and after that, I'll be SET!"

I have a question for everyone, ..based on this premise: Let's say the 1DS comes in November, WITH all the good 1D features,PLUS 6-or-more meg. , and MINUS any banding, moire, etc., problems., and the same image "feel" of the CMOS sensor. Let's also say these features satisfy our technical needs, and we then buy the accompanying "L" lens assortment to match.

The question: Now that we've GOT a set-up that will allow us to print 13 X19 (at least) on our fine photo-quality home printers, and display/sell work that pleases us and our customers (heavy on the US), maybe we're strictly amateurs, and don't have/want "customers", ...is the industry going to ALLOW us to happily "stop-buying" at that point, and start "using" instead,...AS LONG AS WE WISH? I ask this in the sense that my 35 yr. old Minolta SRT's are STLL servicable and capable of damn good MF-SLR performance (should I choose to continue working within their capabilities), after all-these-years.

If we spend TEN or TWENTY TIMES as much (we are!) for today's state-of-the-art DSLR, can we realistically expect a similar service-lifetime from this new gear, if we CHOOSE to not-keep-up with inevitable future advances (or can't afford-to)?

In other words, if we define and reach a "good-enough" level for OURSELVES (not others), can we then opt out of this frantic looking-for-the-latest, and peacefully enjoy our pastime for an extended period?

There is a very practical basis for my question. I am a retired firefighter, not a pro-photog. My purchase will NOT pay-for-itself, as it will for the professional. It will be a one-time out-of-(shallow)pocket expense. I don't mind paying for the level of performance and quality I can (barely) afford, ...but I would be comforted to think my investment would serve-me-well, for a reasonably extended period (like maybe as long as I live , ...age 61 now). A new SRT 101 could do it, ...and THAT technology is 35 years old!

With (or in-spite-of) all the "progress" of the intervening years, do you guys think the service-life of this new gear will hold-a-candle to the oldies-but-goodies? (...and what kind of industry-support will there be for "superceded' equipment?)

Thanks for any thoughts

Larry

I hope so, but I somehow doubt it. I think the 1D and it's kin will have a long life but if you break/wearout a crucial part will Canon still have spares 5 years from now? Or will it be one of those cheaper to replace than repair situations?

lhsmith said:

Calling all gurus ;-),

I've seen several comments by others, which mirror my own thoughts,
saying essentially; "When/if the new 1D(S, HR,whatever) finally
gets here, with the features and resolution I'm waiting-for, THEN
I'll spend the necessary big-bucks, and after that, I'll be SET!"

I have a question for everyone, ..based on this premise: Let's say
the 1DS comes in November, WITH all the good 1D features,PLUS
6-or-more meg. , and MINUS any banding, moire, etc., problems., and
the same image "feel" of the CMOS sensor. Let's also say these
features satisfy our technical needs, and we then buy the
accompanying "L" lens assortment to match.

The question: Now that we've GOT a set-up that will allow us to
print 13 X19 (at least) on our fine photo-quality home printers,
and display/sell work that pleases us and our customers (heavy on
the US), maybe we're strictly amateurs, and don't have/want
"customers", ...is the industry going to ALLOW us to happily
"stop-buying" at that point, and start "using" instead,...AS LONG
AS WE WISH? I ask this in the sense that my 35 yr. old Minolta
SRT's are STLL servicable and capable of damn good MF-SLR
performance (should I choose to continue working within their
capabilities), after all-these-years.

If we spend TEN or TWENTY TIMES as much (we are!) for today's
state-of-the-art DSLR, can we realistically expect a similar
service-lifetime from this new gear, if we CHOOSE to not-keep-up
with inevitable future advances (or can't afford-to)?

In other words, if we define and reach a "good-enough" level for
OURSELVES (not others), can we then opt out of this frantic
looking-for-the-latest, and peacefully enjoy our pastime for an
extended period?

There is a very practical basis for my question. I am a retired
firefighter, not a pro-photog. My purchase will NOT pay-for-itself,
as it will for the professional. It will be a one-time
out-of-(shallow)pocket expense. I don't mind paying for the level
of performance and quality I can (barely) afford, ...but I would be
comforted to think my investment would serve-me-well, for a
reasonably extended period (like maybe as long as I live , ...age
61 now). A new SRT 101 could do it, ...and THAT technology is 35
years old!

With (or in-spite-of) all the "progress" of the intervening years,
do you guys think the service-life of this new gear will
hold-a-candle to the oldies-but-goodies? (...and what kind of
industry-support will there be for "superceded' equipment?)

Thanks for any thoughts

Larry

Click to expand...

--Valliesto

Larry, this is exactly my point of view....although probably I will eat my shorts as the new 100Mp will come out...

Seriously, when I'll be able to obtain a medium-quality like A2 print from an Eos-1v based digital SLR possibly with a full frame sensor (or 1,2x max), I will be COMPLETELY SETTLED for many many years.

This involves an Eos-1D 10 Mp camera as I posted here
http://www.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1019&message=2096480

But I don't think our thoughts are exactly what the camera companies would hear or really think... they are here to sell their products and they will say forever that you can't do anything without the latest tool.

Regards
Marco

Unfortunately (or fortunately) the world of film cameras no longer reigns supreme for picture quality, ease of use, immediate feedback, etc.

In the digital world (which you are now living in) the capabilities of whatever computer or digital camera or printer you buy will be dependent on current technology and current technology is just that, current. Tomorrow's technology will improve upon it because it is no longer based on features but capability.

Yes, you are right, there is no way the current offerings will be useful ten years from now. But that is just the world we are now living in.

Roger

PS: I am also guessing that I am older than you are.

Valliesto Bailey said:

lhsmith said:

Calling all gurus ;-),

I've seen several comments by others, which mirror my own thoughts,
saying essentially; "When/if the new 1D(S, HR,whatever) finally
gets here, with the features and resolution I'm waiting-for, THEN
I'll spend the necessary big-bucks, and after that, I'll be SET!"

I have a question for everyone, ..based on this premise: Let's say
the 1DS comes in November, WITH all the good 1D features,PLUS
6-or-more meg. , and MINUS any banding, moire, etc., problems., and
the same image "feel" of the CMOS sensor. Let's also say these
features satisfy our technical needs, and we then buy the
accompanying "L" lens assortment to match.

The question: Now that we've GOT a set-up that will allow us to
print 13 X19 (at least) on our fine photo-quality home printers,
and display/sell work that pleases us and our customers (heavy on
the US), maybe we're strictly amateurs, and don't have/want
"customers", ...is the industry going to ALLOW us to happily
"stop-buying" at that point, and start "using" instead,...AS LONG
AS WE WISH? I ask this in the sense that my 35 yr. old Minolta
SRT's are STLL servicable and capable of damn good MF-SLR
performance (should I choose to continue working within their
capabilities), after all-these-years.

If we spend TEN or TWENTY TIMES as much (we are!) for today's
state-of-the-art DSLR, can we realistically expect a similar
service-lifetime from this new gear, if we CHOOSE to not-keep-up
with inevitable future advances (or can't afford-to)?

In other words, if we define and reach a "good-enough" level for
OURSELVES (not others), can we then opt out of this frantic
looking-for-the-latest, and peacefully enjoy our pastime for an
extended period?

There is a very practical basis for my question. I am a retired
firefighter, not a pro-photog. My purchase will NOT pay-for-itself,
as it will for the professional. It will be a one-time
out-of-(shallow)pocket expense. I don't mind paying for the level
of performance and quality I can (barely) afford, ...but I would be
comforted to think my investment would serve-me-well, for a
reasonably extended period (like maybe as long as I live , ...age
61 now). A new SRT 101 could do it, ...and THAT technology is 35
years old!

With (or in-spite-of) all the "progress" of the intervening years,
do you guys think the service-life of this new gear will
hold-a-candle to the oldies-but-goodies? (...and what kind of
industry-support will there be for "superceded' equipment?)

Thanks for any thoughts

Larry

Click to expand...

--
Valliesto

Click to expand...

Roger Levit said:

PS: I am also guessing that I am older than you are.

Click to expand...

Hi Roger,

Since I TOLD you that I'm 61, ...does that mean you don't know how old YOU are? (...and therefore have to "guess" who's older?)

Or maybe you ARE older,and just can't remember... happens to me all-the-time

Larry

If you have an inexpensive, high-quality, 12-24MP camera that can do superb 20x30 prints rivalling MF, then where is the incentive to upgrade?

I expect digital cameras to match computers--including the sudden slump in sales.

People bought computers, and upgraded, and upgraded, and upgraded, until suddenly they stopped. The stopping point was where everyone now had a computer that did pretty much what they needed it to do.

Most computer sales now go to gamers (who are forced to keep up), people whose system has died (replacement), people who decide they need some new feature (like DVD-RW), or to the bleeding edge who have to have the most recent 2Ghz whatever (hard core), or to the workstation crowd (pro).

All of whom are in the minority.

Substitute camera for computer in the above and you can see where things fall out.

Some camera manufactuers are going to get a shock in the not-so-distant future.

Marco said:

But I don't think our thoughts are exactly what the camera
companies would hear or really think... they are here to sell their
products and they will say forever that you can't do anything
without the latest tool.

Click to expand...

I don't care WHAT they SAY, ...as long as I can choose to do-otherwise, and can expect my equipment (investment) to serve me as intended.

If the companys DON'T provide support, then their approach is not only one of "planned" absolesence, but one of FORCED obsolescence. and the deliberate de-valuation of their customer's dollar.

So, whereas in the past you got "your money's worth" in $300 gear that would serve/work for 30 years, ...now they offer $30,000 gear that may serve for 30 MONTHS??

There's some real "progress" for you.

I have some real philosophical problems with the throw-away-and buy-new every 6 mos. concept.

And I would have the same opinion if I was wealthy. There's something so basically wasteful about it that whether you "can afford" to do it becomes eclipsed by the whether-you-SHOULD-be-doing-it issues.

The image of a poor woman in the Congo, that I saw on Nightline the other night, trudging up-and-down a mountain trail, in sandals, with 200 lbs, of beans on her back, hoping to make ONE DOLLAR !!(she only got 65 cents) to feed 7(or was it ten) kids makes the wholesale "make them throwaway good-stuff so-we can-make-more-profit" attitude seem more than a little obscene.

Something's wrong with this picture :-(

Larry

Michael Long said:

If you have an inexpensive, high-quality, 12-24MP camera that can
do superb 20x30 prints rivalling MF, then where is the incentive to
upgrade?

I expect digital cameras to match computers--including the sudden
slump in sales.

People bought computers, and upgraded, and upgraded, and upgraded,
until suddenly they stopped. The stopping point was where everyone
now had a computer that did pretty much what they needed it to do.

Click to expand...

Ok, ...then considering how many of us DON'T have the camera you describe above, then there is still plenty of incentive for "them" to make it, and "us" to buy it.

After we've ALL got one, then we can turn our attention to other things that humankind has waiting to be-accomplished, and "we" will pay "them for whatever they can improve in THAT area.

Larry

Larry H. Smith said:

If the companys DON'T provide support, then their approach is not
only one of "planned" absolesence, but one of FORCED obsolescence.
and the deliberate de-valuation of their customer's dollar.

Click to expand...

Totally agreed. My last post didn't mean that what the companies would do is RIGHT (nor that I will merely do what they say), it was simply a (bad) fact.

Larry H. Smith said:

So, whereas in the past you got "your money's worth" in $300 gear
that would serve/work for 30 years, ...now they offer $30,000 gear
that may serve for 30 MONTHS??

There's some real "progress" for you.

Click to expand...

Not really Larry, I'm with you.

Larry H. Smith said:

The image of a poor woman in the Congo, that I saw on Nightline the
other night, trudging up-and-down a mountain trail, in sandals,
with 200 lbs, of beans on her back, hoping to make ONE DOLLAR
!!(she only got 65 cents) to feed 7(or was it ten) kids makes the
wholesale "make them throwaway good-stuff so-we
can-make-more-profit" attitude seem more than a little obscene.

Click to expand...

Ok Larry, I understand your whole thought and completely agree in a philosophical manner.

If you put the human kind poverty into our futile forum, there's everything wrong, upgrading to an L lens, buying a pricey ball head or carbon fiber tripod, even wasting our time talking of these "issues".

But this is a bit unfair... why don't we sell our car and buy a little one (or go by metro or bus), why don't we live in a little apartment and stop wasting money to take stupid shots of our neighborhoods ? I know that in the end we are ALL guilty for what happens in the rest of the world. But this is something that involves our coscience and our balance of priority (we must help but at the same time we have to support our economy, giving it the force to really help the weakest countries).

What we can spend is up to us, moreover we are the demand, so the supply will also depend on our behavior. I don't think that we will upgrade if we don't need, at what I need really doesn't depend on an advertise of the new superiperXXXMplightspeedwhatevercamera...

Keep healthy Larry

Ciao
Marco

Larry H. Smith said:

there is still plenty of incentive for "them"
to make it, and "us" to buy it.

Click to expand...

The answer lies within yourself - just resist the marketing hype. The D30 is capable of superb 13*19 prints - I've even done a 20*30 that is excellent. My Canon G1 can even do great 13*19 inkjet prints.

Buy any good current digital and stop reading the ads!

--regards, Ken

I have a Canon FTb from 1976. It is a mechanical camera and
if lubricated once in a while then it really doesn't need spare parts
and if it does you may be able to make them "yourself".

I also bought a second-hand T90 some years a go (manufacturing stopped around 1987) and now they seem to be out of the mostly needed spare parts. T90 was a pro body and the lesser models were out of support earlier. (I sold it and moved to EOS soon after bying it.)

I wouldn't expect that long support for a dSLR but who knows. With
lots of electronics in you will be in trouble finding parts unless the
manufacturers manufacture them (whole circuit boards) enough as
spare parts.

Then there is anothor thing. If the camera survives are you able to
use your current (or the last one which is provided by the manufacturer)
driver (TWAIN etc.) in the future computers. I would say no, so at some
point you need to preserve your old computer just to be able to
download/convert the RAW images. Just hope the computer is usable
as long as the camera is.

I know I was a bit pessimistic here. I was just thinking my Yamaha DS2416 audio I/O & mixer card (only 750E) which has been discontinued for a
while already and the driver support seems to be slowly fading out.
No real problems yet but it is only few years old.

Vesa

I don't see why digital SLRs should be any different than film SLRs in the sense that once the quality reaches a certain point, there's only so much more manufacturers can add to a body to entice users to upgrade. Once we see a full frame 6mp, high-ISO low noise body, the upgrades are going to be mighty difficult to justify. There is always going to be the pro market, I believe this is where they make their money anyway.

When I first got into 35mm photography, I upgraded within 2 years of my first one. I've had that 2nd body for over 5 years, and if I hadn't gotten the D30 would still be using the A2. If there were no digital SLR to consider, I would find no compelling reason to upgrade from the A2 - it does pretty much everything I want. I feel the same will be true of digital SLRs once they reach at least the specs I mention above.

Mark

lhsmith said:

Calling all gurus ;-),

I've seen several comments by others, which mirror my own thoughts,
saying essentially; "When/if the new 1D(S, HR,whatever) finally
gets here, with the features and resolution I'm waiting-for, THEN
I'll spend the necessary big-bucks, and after that, I'll be SET!"

I have a question for everyone, ..based on this premise: Let's say
the 1DS comes in November, WITH all the good 1D features,PLUS
6-or-more meg. , and MINUS any banding, moire, etc., problems., and
the same image "feel" of the CMOS sensor. Let's also say these
features satisfy our technical needs, and we then buy the
accompanying "L" lens assortment to match.

The question: Now that we've GOT a set-up that will allow us to
print 13 X19 (at least) on our fine photo-quality home printers,
and display/sell work that pleases us and our customers (heavy on
the US), maybe we're strictly amateurs, and don't have/want
"customers", ...is the industry going to ALLOW us to happily
"stop-buying" at that point, and start "using" instead,...AS LONG
AS WE WISH? I ask this in the sense that my 35 yr. old Minolta
SRT's are STLL servicable and capable of damn good MF-SLR
performance (should I choose to continue working within their
capabilities), after all-these-years.

If we spend TEN or TWENTY TIMES as much (we are!) for today's
state-of-the-art DSLR, can we realistically expect a similar
service-lifetime from this new gear, if we CHOOSE to not-keep-up
with inevitable future advances (or can't afford-to)?

In other words, if we define and reach a "good-enough" level for
OURSELVES (not others), can we then opt out of this frantic
looking-for-the-latest, and peacefully enjoy our pastime for an
extended period?

There is a very practical basis for my question. I am a retired
firefighter, not a pro-photog. My purchase will NOT pay-for-itself,
as it will for the professional. It will be a one-time
out-of-(shallow)pocket expense. I don't mind paying for the level
of performance and quality I can (barely) afford, ...but I would be
comforted to think my investment would serve-me-well, for a
reasonably extended period (like maybe as long as I live , ...age
61 now). A new SRT 101 could do it, ...and THAT technology is 35
years old!

With (or in-spite-of) all the "progress" of the intervening years,
do you guys think the service-life of this new gear will
hold-a-candle to the oldies-but-goodies? (...and what kind of
industry-support will there be for "superceded' equipment?)

Thanks for any thoughts

Larry

Click to expand...

I shouldn't worry Larry. The truth is that the human eye only has so much resolution. It will be pointless to carry on producing cameras with more and more resolution, because we won,t be able to see the difference anyway.

The only people who will benefit will be the Calendar and high end user advertising photographers who require the ultimate quality for fine print that these cameras will produce. So I shouldn't bother too much. Just enjoy what you've got.--Chris Clark

I feel camera manufacturers had hit the jack pot. For all practical purposes if you has a good film SLR and lenses you were set. I had 3 SLR's a ZLR and numerous lenses. I was not in the market for anything else.

Digital came and the manufacturers were in heaven. If 10 mb gives us 35mm film quality and 20mb gives us roll film quality then there is a time when the industry will mature. But at what point (MP Size) I do not know.--Jeff MorrisAdams, Gutmann, Steichen, Stigletz, Weston. they lead by example.

Yeah, but these manufacturers are hemorraging money just to keep up. Polarod sold more digital cameras than anyone else, they went bankrupt. Kodak sells a ton of digital cameras, and they are bleeding out money, and aren't expecting to turn a profit until 2003.

Digital cameras are going to result in a corporate bloodbath where only a few manufacturers are left standing. Not a good thing for the manufacturers.

Jeff Morris said:

I feel camera manufacturers had hit the jack pot. For all
practical purposes if you has a good film SLR and lenses you were
set. I had 3 SLR's a ZLR and numerous lenses. I was not in the
market for anything else.

Digital came and the manufacturers were in heaven. If 10 mb gives
us 35mm film quality and 20mb gives us roll film quality then there
is a time when the industry will mature. But at what point (MP
Size) I do not know.
--
Jeff Morris

Adams, Gutmann, Steichen, Stigletz, Weston. they lead by example.

Click to expand...

lhsmith said:

Calling all gurus ;-),

Click to expand...

Larry H. Smith said:

The question: Now that we've GOT a set-up that will allow us to
print 13 X19 (at least) on our fine photo-quality home printers,
and display/sell work that pleases us and our customers (heavy on
the US), maybe we're strictly amateurs, and don't have/want
"customers", ...is the industry going to ALLOW us to happily
"stop-buying" at that point, and start "using" instead,...AS LONG
AS WE WISH? I ask this in the sense that my 35 yr. old Minolta
SRT's are STLL servicable and capable of damn good MF-SLR
performance (should I choose to continue working within their
capabilities), after all-these-years.

If we spend TEN or TWENTY TIMES as much (we are!) for today's
state-of-the-art DSLR, can we realistically expect a similar
service-lifetime from this new gear, if we CHOOSE to not-keep-up
with inevitable future advances (or can't afford-to)?

In other words, if we define and reach a "good-enough" level for
OURSELVES (not others), can we then opt out of this frantic
looking-for-the-latest, and peacefully enjoy our pastime for an
extended period?

Click to expand...

You're, without knowing it, describing classic nervosa symptoms. In the audio world, it's called "Audio Nervosa" where you're never happy. Why? Because of changes going on within the industry/equipment. Everytime a new change comes out, the individual must have the latest and greatest version or they feel like they're missing out. This to the point of never having the ability to enjoy the equipment they have aquired.

Larry H. Smith said:

There is a very practical basis for my question. I am a retired
firefighter, not a pro-photog. My purchase will NOT pay-for-itself,
as it will for the professional. It will be a one-time
out-of-(shallow)pocket expense. I don't mind paying for the level
of performance and quality I can (barely) afford, ...but I would be
comforted to think my investment would serve-me-well, for a
reasonably extended period (like maybe as long as I live , ...age
61 now). A new SRT 101 could do it, ...and THAT technology is 35
years old!

Click to expand...

You might compare the nervosa to a retired firefighter that hears the wail of the siren and the deep throated rumble of the turbo's. The pulse quickens, the heart intuitively races and then a sigh as the realization comes over them that they're retired. Even though they're retired, they still feel they're missing out as a company of their brothers heads to the next heroic call.

Larry H. Smith said:

With (or in-spite-of) all the "progress" of the intervening years,
do you guys think the service-life of this new gear will
hold-a-candle to the oldies-but-goodies? (...and what kind of
industry-support will there be for "superceded' equipment?)

Click to expand...

Some of the lenses you might be getting today, when tripoded on a windless day, properly lit, will be able to resolve a mating tick, in a meadow at a hundred yards with a tele-extender attached. The glass today is nothing short of fantastic and will hold it's own long after your great-grand children have come to visit you in heaven.

The Canon EOS D30 is a mechanical marvel and the next generation, it you can wait that long, I'm betting, is going to be four times as good.

With all the above in mind, yes, once you've aquired your lenses and camera body, you can stop worring and go about enjoying your hobby. Remember, it doesn't get any better, just more expensive.

You might find yourself, returning to this forum for information on printers, they still have room for improvement but that doesn't mean they're not already great mechanical marvels in their own right. You'll find you'll be wanting to learn about paper, printer settings, calibration problems, color matching, third party digital processing programs, filters, flashes.....

A night course or three at the local community college will be quite a hoot. They're a good buch at your local community college, you'll get exposure (no pun intended), have time for the homework and everybody will have the same interests as you do; painting with light.

Cash outlay will never stop but once the outlay is completed for lenses, camera body and printer; you're good to go with mostly consumables, ink and paper, for costs.

Hope this helps.

Michael Long said:

Most computer sales now go to gamers (who are forced to keep up),
people whose system has died (replacement), people who decide they
need some new feature (like DVD-RW), or to the bleeding edge who
have to have the most recent 2Ghz whatever (hard core), or to the
workstation crowd (pro).

Click to expand...

Or they have to buy one for their thirteen year old so the thirteen year old will have a machine of their own and leave your computer alone

I agree with Thomas and would like to add that a higher MP camera or a newer model does not mean that we will be taking better pictures. As for obsolescense, a DSLR will probably have a shorter lifespan but if I have used my D30 fully then I would think that I have made a worthwhile investment.

Regards,

SL
http://www.digitalsilverhalide.com

Thomas Gar said:

lhsmith said:

Calling all gurus ;-),

Click to expand...

Thomas Gardner said:

The question: Now that we've GOT a set-up that will allow us to
print 13 X19 (at least) on our fine photo-quality home printers,
and display/sell work that pleases us and our customers (heavy on
the US), maybe we're strictly amateurs, and don't have/want
"customers", ...is the industry going to ALLOW us to happily
"stop-buying" at that point, and start "using" instead,...AS LONG
AS WE WISH? I ask this in the sense that my 35 yr. old Minolta
SRT's are STLL servicable and capable of damn good MF-SLR
performance (should I choose to continue working within their
capabilities), after all-these-years.

If we spend TEN or TWENTY TIMES as much (we are!) for today's
state-of-the-art DSLR, can we realistically expect a similar
service-lifetime from this new gear, if we CHOOSE to not-keep-up
with inevitable future advances (or can't afford-to)?

In other words, if we define and reach a "good-enough" level for
OURSELVES (not others), can we then opt out of this frantic
looking-for-the-latest, and peacefully enjoy our pastime for an
extended period?

Click to expand...

You're, without knowing it, describing classic nervosa symptoms.
In the audio world, it's called "Audio Nervosa" where you're never
happy. Why? Because of changes going on within the
industry/equipment. Everytime a new change comes out, the
individual must have the latest and greatest version or they feel
like they're missing out. This to the point of never having the
ability to enjoy the equipment they have aquired.

Thomas Gardner said:

There is a very practical basis for my question. I am a retired
firefighter, not a pro-photog. My purchase will NOT pay-for-itself,
as it will for the professional. It will be a one-time
out-of-(shallow)pocket expense. I don't mind paying for the level
of performance and quality I can (barely) afford, ...but I would be
comforted to think my investment would serve-me-well, for a
reasonably extended period (like maybe as long as I live , ...age
61 now). A new SRT 101 could do it, ...and THAT technology is 35
years old!

Click to expand...

You might compare the nervosa to a retired firefighter that hears
the wail of the siren and the deep throated rumble of the turbo's.
The pulse quickens, the heart intuitively races and then a sigh as
the realization comes over them that they're retired. Even though
they're retired, they still feel they're missing out as a company
of their brothers heads to the next heroic call.

Thomas Gardner said:

With (or in-spite-of) all the "progress" of the intervening years,
do you guys think the service-life of this new gear will
hold-a-candle to the oldies-but-goodies? (...and what kind of
industry-support will there be for "superceded' equipment?)

Click to expand...

Some of the lenses you might be getting today, when tripoded on a
windless day, properly lit, will be able to resolve a mating tick,
in a meadow at a hundred yards with a tele-extender attached. The
glass today is nothing short of fantastic and will hold it's own
long after your great-grand children have come to visit you in
heaven.

The Canon EOS D30 is a mechanical marvel and the next generation,
it you can wait that long, I'm betting, is going to be four times
as good.

With all the above in mind, yes, once you've aquired your lenses
and camera body, you can stop worring and go about enjoying your
hobby. Remember, it doesn't get any better, just more expensive.

You might find yourself, returning to this forum for information on
printers, they still have room for improvement but that doesn't
mean they're not already great mechanical marvels in their own
right. You'll find you'll be wanting to learn about paper, printer
settings, calibration problems, color matching, third party digital
processing programs, filters, flashes.....

A night course or three at the local community college will be
quite a hoot. They're a good buch at your local community college,
you'll get exposure (no pun intended), have time for the homework
and everybody will have the same interests as you do; painting with
light.

Cash outlay will never stop but once the outlay is completed for
lenses, camera body and printer; you're good to go with mostly
consumables, ink and paper, for costs.

Hope this helps.

Click to expand...

The market for better and better 2D picture machines will probably reach a point of diminishing returns within 5 years, but whose to say something new won't come along to keep the spiral moving upward...like a 3d holographic camera that will render and life-like, lifesize images in real time and space. Progress will never really stop. Yesterday's science fiction is today's reality.

SLCheah said:

Regards,

SL
http://www.digitalsilverhalide.com

Thomas Gar said:

lhsmith said:

Calling all gurus ;-),

Click to expand...

Powerone said:

The question: Now that we've GOT a set-up that will allow us to
print 13 X19 (at least) on our fine photo-quality home printers,
and display/sell work that pleases us and our customers (heavy on
the US), maybe we're strictly amateurs, and don't have/want
"customers", ...is the industry going to ALLOW us to happily
"stop-buying" at that point, and start "using" instead,...AS LONG
AS WE WISH? I ask this in the sense that my 35 yr. old Minolta
SRT's are STLL servicable and capable of damn good MF-SLR
performance (should I choose to continue working within their
capabilities), after all-these-years.

If we spend TEN or TWENTY TIMES as much (we are!) for today's
state-of-the-art DSLR, can we realistically expect a similar
service-lifetime from this new gear, if we CHOOSE to not-keep-up
with inevitable future advances (or can't afford-to)?

In other words, if we define and reach a "good-enough" level for
OURSELVES (not others), can we then opt out of this frantic
looking-for-the-latest, and peacefully enjoy our pastime for an
extended period?

Click to expand...

You're, without knowing it, describing classic nervosa symptoms.
In the audio world, it's called "Audio Nervosa" where you're never
happy. Why? Because of changes going on within the
industry/equipment. Everytime a new change comes out, the
individual must have the latest and greatest version or they feel
like they're missing out. This to the point of never having the
ability to enjoy the equipment they have aquired.

Powerone said:

There is a very practical basis for my question. I am a retired
firefighter, not a pro-photog. My purchase will NOT pay-for-itself,
as it will for the professional. It will be a one-time
out-of-(shallow)pocket expense. I don't mind paying for the level
of performance and quality I can (barely) afford, ...but I would be
comforted to think my investment would serve-me-well, for a
reasonably extended period (like maybe as long as I live , ...age
61 now). A new SRT 101 could do it, ...and THAT technology is 35
years old!

Click to expand...

You might compare the nervosa to a retired firefighter that hears
the wail of the siren and the deep throated rumble of the turbo's.
The pulse quickens, the heart intuitively races and then a sigh as
the realization comes over them that they're retired. Even though
they're retired, they still feel they're missing out as a company
of their brothers heads to the next heroic call.

Powerone said:

With (or in-spite-of) all the "progress" of the intervening years,
do you guys think the service-life of this new gear will
hold-a-candle to the oldies-but-goodies? (...and what kind of
industry-support will there be for "superceded' equipment?)

Click to expand...

Some of the lenses you might be getting today, when tripoded on a
windless day, properly lit, will be able to resolve a mating tick,
in a meadow at a hundred yards with a tele-extender attached. The
glass today is nothing short of fantastic and will hold it's own
long after your great-grand children have come to visit you in
heaven.

The Canon EOS D30 is a mechanical marvel and the next generation,
it you can wait that long, I'm betting, is going to be four times
as good.

With all the above in mind, yes, once you've aquired your lenses
and camera body, you can stop worring and go about enjoying your
hobby. Remember, it doesn't get any better, just more expensive.

You might find yourself, returning to this forum for information on
printers, they still have room for improvement but that doesn't
mean they're not already great mechanical marvels in their own
right. You'll find you'll be wanting to learn about paper, printer
settings, calibration problems, color matching, third party digital
processing programs, filters, flashes.....

A night course or three at the local community college will be
quite a hoot. They're a good buch at your local community college,
you'll get exposure (no pun intended), have time for the homework
and everybody will have the same interests as you do; painting with
light.

Cash outlay will never stop but once the outlay is completed for
lenses, camera body and printer; you're good to go with mostly
consumables, ink and paper, for costs.

Hope this helps.

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

--Andy C

This is a topic I have been thinking about. Lets face it, most people probably only "need" at most a good 3MP camera. A 6MP camera is beyond all but the really dedicated photographers need.

I have been in the Semiconductor Industry for 24 years, most of those creating new products for new markets, and have seen a lot of new product growth trends. With high tech products the trend is:

On of the big issues with Digital Cameras is that they are going to be getting “better than people need them” pretty quickly. As this happens and the costs drop the volumes will go up and the sales in dollars per year will go up, initially. But then as the market saturates the prices will continue to fall while the volume flattens. We have seen this in everything from pocket calculators to Palm Pilots.

Everyone likes to compare to the PC market but it has been pretty unique in that the Hardware allowed more complicated Software that in turn drove the need for Better hardware and it spiraled up so that the Volume of Units TIMES the Need for MIPs exceeded the drop in price per MIPs (I know that a MIP or Million Instructions per Second is not a “real metric” but I use it for illustration). It is one of the few products that have seen so long an upward spiral in need for more capability.

There will be a bunch of “evolutionary” features and options to lure people to a bit better model just like there is today. A number of these will be gimmicks that have little to do with taking better pictures.

Things I expect to see rather than going past 6MP in most cameras (in NO particular order and some of these would be considered gimmicks):

1. Better low light capability (Higher ISO with less noise) – Consumers want this. Flash is tricky to use (witness all the posts about flash), Flash is disruptive, You get a different look with without flash, and it saves money on lenses (adds value but reduces the after market).

2. Smaller cameras with wider effective zoom ranges - MOST people want small cameras so that they can keep them with them. They have proven to pay a premium for smaller cameras, and are thus enticing to manufacturer to build. The higher resolution sensor will be a cheaper way to get a wider zoom range than optics.

3. Wireless internet from the camera – so much for big flash cards. I expect wireless high speed internet to be common.

4. Better/smarter autofocusing

5. Smart/built in panning stitching – inertia sensing say so you can rattle off several pictures and get one big picture with no work. A related feature would be 3D (If you know the camera position in 3-D then you are starting to get 3-D info).

6. GPS – you will know where you took the picture, not just when.

These will probably give the Camera a few more years before it settles down, but for the basic picture taking function, I expect that things will be slowing down in the next couple of years. I think the lower light capability will become more and more of a major selling point rather than megapixels (just like it was for Camcorders). Yeah, some specialty applications will want more resolution but they will not be high volume.

Karl

lhsmith said:

Calling all gurus ;-),

I've seen several comments by others, which mirror my own thoughts,
saying essentially; "When/if the new 1D(S, HR,whatever) finally
gets here, with the features and resolution I'm waiting-for, THEN
I'll spend the necessary big-bucks, and after that, I'll be SET!"

I have a question for everyone, ..based on this premise: Let's say
the 1DS comes in November, WITH all the good 1D features,PLUS
6-or-more meg. , and MINUS any banding, moire, etc., problems., and
the same image "feel" of the CMOS sensor. Let's also say these
features satisfy our technical needs, and we then buy the
accompanying "L" lens assortment to match.

The question: Now that we've GOT a set-up that will allow us to
print 13 X19 (at least) on our fine photo-quality home printers,
and display/sell work that pleases us and our customers (heavy on
the US), maybe we're strictly amateurs, and don't have/want
"customers", ...is the industry going to ALLOW us to happily
"stop-buying" at that point, and start "using" instead,...AS LONG
AS WE WISH? I ask this in the sense that my 35 yr. old Minolta
SRT's are STLL servicable and capable of damn good MF-SLR
performance (should I choose to continue working within their
capabilities), after all-these-years.

If we spend TEN or TWENTY TIMES as much (we are!) for today's
state-of-the-art DSLR, can we realistically expect a similar
service-lifetime from this new gear, if we CHOOSE to not-keep-up
with inevitable future advances (or can't afford-to)?

In other words, if we define and reach a "good-enough" level for
OURSELVES (not others), can we then opt out of this frantic
looking-for-the-latest, and peacefully enjoy our pastime for an
extended period?

There is a very practical basis for my question. I am a retired
firefighter, not a pro-photog. My purchase will NOT pay-for-itself,
as it will for the professional. It will be a one-time
out-of-(shallow)pocket expense. I don't mind paying for the level
of performance and quality I can (barely) afford, ...but I would be
comforted to think my investment would serve-me-well, for a
reasonably extended period (like maybe as long as I live , ...age
61 now). A new SRT 101 could do it, ...and THAT technology is 35
years old!

With (or in-spite-of) all the "progress" of the intervening years,
do you guys think the service-life of this new gear will
hold-a-candle to the oldies-but-goodies? (...and what kind of
industry-support will there be for "superceded' equipment?)

Thanks for any thoughts

Larry

Click to expand...

--Karl