Japanese DSLR sales

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The difference is that a company of Canon's size can easily absorb such stategy if the end result means that they maintain overall market strength. Besides, with the overwhelming number of sales being in the entry-level segment, a sacrifice on the upper segment isn't going to have as much of an impact on their bottom line. Heck, the 30D doesn't even show up in this graph. Nevertheless, the 30D (and its successors) still offer that which their entry-level bodies don't offer: larger size, magnesium alloy bodies, faster frame rates, etc. A Panasonic mass-market body would probably be very similarly spec'd and sized to Oly's mass-market body, thus increasing the potential for canabalization.

Plus, in Oly's case, they have so little market strength to begin with, and far lower profits than Canon, that any cannabilization of their market would have a much more severe consequence. And canabalization in the mass-market entry-level segment, where most manufacturers sell most of their bodies, would have an even greater consequence for Oly because it hits them where it's going to hurt the most-- in their bread-and-butter mass-market sales.
Right now, until they bring out a new 10 MP (or even 12 MP) 40D,
they have a major hole in their product line. And if they bring
out the 40D this year, they will clearly have admitted that they
took a hit on the 30D.
Nothing wrong with such an "admission". The hallmark of any agile company is the ability to dance on a shifting rug, responding to market changes in order to maintain their advantage. There's no pride in not making such an adjustment. The pride comes from making the adjustment and maintaining your market strength. Maybe Oly could have benefitted from the same attitude in dealing with their outdated E-1 "flagship".
 
I know I didn't.

I merely pointed out that Canon most assuredly DID pay a significant price to maintain their market share in the face of aggressive competition from Sony and Nikon.

And I can assure you, if you think Canon has lots of resources, Sony has got quite a bit more, if they choose to spend them in this market.
 
We were talking about Panasonic mass-market bodies canabalizing Olympus mass-market bodies.

Canon knows that they "pay a price" anytime they spend any money to maintain market strength. That's the price of doing business, whether it means "paying a price" for new product development, or "paying a price" for marketing, or "paying a price" for Maria Sharapova to be in their ads. You gotta spend money to make money. You act like that's a bad thing. I don't think Canon thinks it's a bad thing, so long as they continue to do well in the business.

I think you need to modify your attitude and perspective when it comes to business. There's nothing wrong with admitting that a current product needs to be replaced in order to remain competitive, and there's nothing wrong with paying a price to maintain an advantage in the market. The only thing that counts it the bottom line.

And by the way, Canon is in far better financial health than Sony.
I know I didn't.

I merely pointed out that Canon most assuredly DID pay a
significant price to maintain their market share in the face of
aggressive competition from Sony and Nikon.

And I can assure you, if you think Canon has lots of resources,
Sony has got quite a bit more, if they choose to spend them in this
market.
 
The issue for Canon was never how easily they could make a new
Rebel with a 10 MP sensor. The problem they faced was in the
market positioning and pricing. I am willing to bet that they
ended up largely killing the sales of the 30D, quite early in it's
life cycle in order to do this.

They may well have had to sacrifice some profitability in order to
keep their market share here.

Right now, until they bring out a new 10 MP (or even 12 MP) 40D,
they have a major hole in their product line. And if they bring
out the 40D this year, they will clearly have admitted that they
took a hit on the 30D.
You may perceive no immediate 10mp 30d "replacement" as a hole. I'm more confident that Canon are working on a different strategy.

If you have been reading Canon threads, they have been discounting the 5d to very attractive price levels so for anyone considering the 30d it would be very tempting. It tempts me too - and I'm a Nkion user.

They also have released a "white paper" on their CMOS full-frame technology, presenting their case for a claim to technical superiority on sensor design and manufacturing, and extolling the advantages of larger sensors.

The 400d they just dropped in to the market is clearly the lowest specified most amateur featured 10mp dslr - but also the lowest priced and a hot seller. The D200 from Nikon had been around long enough for Canon to have leap-frogged it if they so wished when they introduced the 30d. I don't think they wished.

Canon will keep a presence in the volume selling crop-sensor dslr market - but I wouldn't expect "pro" featured cameras from them. They can truly differentiate their "pro" from the "pro-sumer" by sensor size. Most arguments about the advantage of crop sensor for longer focal length lenses can be discounted by the present reality that if you take an 8mp crop from the center of an image frame from a 5d, then that crop is every bit as good as a full 30d frame.

I think on this thread I mentioned that for the Japanese market, they have a fairly consistent > 5% share of total dlsr volume sales with just the 5d. As that camera is priced 2.5 - 3 times higher than the average dslr sale price, that is 15% or so of the dslr sales value - and in a market where they make good margins because of less competition. I think we will see more full-frame cameras from Canon before a "40d".
 
To me as a photographer. In fact, I am both in the business, AND a photographer - but I happen to separate the two. I am very cognizant of the fact that Canon is far more successful in the DSLR business than Olympus. But I also do not believe that the most successful business by definition makes the best cameras.

Case in point, Leica and Rollei are both in very deep doo doo as businesses right now. But that does not alter the fact that some of the particular cameras that these companies have made might well be the most utilitarian, dare I say, the best, cameras ever built, for serious photographers.

There is, in almost any market, a difference between the products that best tap into the needs of the mass consumer market, the the working pros, and the genuine artists. I have no doubt that Canon makes the best DSLRs for the mass consumer market, and I would even grant that they make the best DSLRs for most pros (although, I would contend that Nikon might be better for some segments). But that does not, in any way, tell me that Canon makes the best cameras for everyone. Just that they make the best cameras for many or most, and as a result, they are the most successful. But that's like saying that Van Gogh was an inferior artist to Thomas Kinkade, because Van Gogh couldn't sell any paintings, while Kinkade cranks them out by the thousands.
 
We have to wait for Panasonic to produce a mass-market DSLR before
we can make any statements such as the ones below...
But would a Panasonic mass-market DSLR really do any better than
Oly's mass-market DSLRs? What it'll probably do is canabalize much
of Oly's 4/3 market just as much as it expands the 4/3 market. So
it's two steps forward, once step back. Or it may not expand the
market much at all. So in the end, you might just end up with two
dogs fighting over the same small bone.

I don't think Panasonic is going to accomplish much more than Oly
has been able to accomplish. Oly is a more familiar name in
photography anyways. Consumers associate Olympus with photography
more readily than they associate Panasonic. So I think that a
Panasonic mass-market DSLR would not do any better than Oly's mass
market DSLRs.
Those are good points, although Panasonic is probably doing much better in Japan than elsewhere. They consistently have best selling cameras, usually with their small(er) P&S series. How this translates to mass-market DSLRs is obvoiusly an unknown at the moment.

If the E500 was available in Japan when those numbers were measured, then it doesn't look good. But if it was only the E330 then it's not as bad.

--
Comprehensive Photokina 2006 speculation: http://photographyetc.livejournal.com
 
It's not so much a matter of how many units can they produce per
month rather it's more a matter of how many units do they think
they can sell a month.
Actually, it is. The production facility for Pentax simply cannot
compare with that for Canon or Nikon. The initial production of
K10D is probably 10 to 15% that of D80. Considering the sales of
K100D and the reception of K10D so far, Pentax could have sold 3 or
4x that number easily. Therefore, I would expect K10D's sales
chart not to be that much different from K100D because of
production limitations.
It cannot compare to Canon or Nikons but do you really think that
Pentax could sell 180,000 K100Ds per month even if they could make
them? I don't and I don’t think that anyone else does either.

Pentax chose to only make 15,000 K100Ds per month, yet when they
made the *ist DS they produced 20,000 black units per month and
I think what people are trying to point out is the order of
magnitute in current production capacity. Whether Pentax chooses
not to produce more, or simply does not have the production
capacity I do not know. But you seem to imply that you know that it
is simply a matter of choice, not limitiations in production
capacity. Do you know that for a fact or just speculating based on
numbers?

If you look at their historic monthly numbers they seem to average
well below the monthly average of a D-Rebel or the entry-level
Nikons...
That's right, however they were unable to sell the *ist DS in the numbers they had originally planned and produced an overall sales estimate for 2005-2006 that was only 20,000 units more than the estimate for the last five months for 2004-2005.

Their sales estimate for 2006-2007 is 250,000 units, more than double their 2005-2006 sales figure. What they don't want to do is produce more units and be unable to sell them. They have only just managed to return their Imaging System Business to profitability.

If 2006-2007 goes well, I expect to see them be a bit bolder in 2007-2008.
Pentax is also making an undisclosed number of K110Ds,
As I have said in my posts. However the number is tiny. They didn't put it on sale in Japan and in countries like the UK it is exclusive to one chain. The price difference between the camera with SR and without is $100.
and
(according to posts in the Pentax forum) they may also be using the
same facility to roll out the Samsung equivalents (GX10). So that
seems to be sort of in the same ballpark as the DS/DL...
The GX-10 is NOT the equivalent of the K100D, it is the equivalent of the K10D. There has been no Samsung K100D equivalent. Pentax choose the 15,000 units per month figure for the K100D based on their expected sales of the camera.

However they found that demand in Japan was so high they couldn't fulfil it, which meant that other markets had to wait for this camera to be deployed.
I don't think they were running the DS2/DL2 productions in parallel
with the DS/DL...
No, each line is distinct e.g. 20,000 *ist DL OR 24,000 *ist DL & *ist DS2.
later they also produced 6,000 silver units per month. With the
*ist DL they produced 20,000 units per month while also producing
4,000 *ist DS2s per month. The *ist DL was later replaced by the
*ist DL2 with a production run of only 3,000 units per month.

Over the life of the cameras the production figures went something
like this:

20,000 *ist DS Black
26,000 *ist DS Black & *ist DS Silver
20,000 *ist DL
24,000 *ist DL & *ist DS2
7,000 *ist DS2 & *ist DL2
15,000 K100D

These production runs were not based on their maximum capacity but
on the number of cameras they thought they could sell.

Which is why I said:

"It's not so much a matter of how many units can they produce per
month rather it's more a matter of how many units do they think
they can sell a month."

Note that the numbers for the K110D are not included but due to its
limited distribution and appeal these are believed to be very small.

--
GMT+1 (summertime)
--
Comprehensive Photokina 2006 speculation:
http://photographyetc.livejournal.com
--
GMT+1 (summertime)
 
Well not everyone said that. Quite a few people (including me)
pointed out the fact that that was simply a short snapshot of the
market during the relatively show summer months. Fun numbers,
interesting to look at and speculate on/from, but we need more
long-term data to get a better grip on the market
The long-term data is simply going to show that Canon still
maintains a strong grip on the market, regardless of what attempts
the competition has been able to muster. The short-term data shows
that, whatever temporary gains the competition was able to make,
Canon was quickly able to reverse and neutralize it. And they did
it with a fairly modest, low-investment update to their existing
XT/350D. In other words, they barely lifted a finger, and were
still able to achieve sales percentages that were as much as all
the other brands combined.
Well the spikes are expected as a new product is released, so I don't think any of that was really a surprise. Some people saw that and ran away with it (eg "Canon in decline" threads), but that was just new product release spikes in the slow summer months.

The data is still not enough to project yearly sales because 40% of the sales happen between November/December, and we don't really know how the market will digest all the new models. The number of units sold in those weeks listed is really small compared to the overall market.

Obviously the current data pattern points to something along the lines of the traditional CNMPO ranking of the early flim era (M=Sony/Minolta). Obviously Canon is going to end up #1, the question I guess is whether they will have a majority (50% or more), and Nikon at #2.

--
Comprehensive Photokina 2006 speculation: http://photographyetc.livejournal.com
 
It's not so much a matter of how many units can they produce per
month rather it's more a matter of how many units do they think
they can sell a month.
Actually, it is. The production facility for Pentax simply cannot
compare with that for Canon or Nikon. The initial production of
K10D is probably 10 to 15% that of D80. Considering the sales of
K100D and the reception of K10D so far, Pentax could have sold 3 or
4x that number easily. Therefore, I would expect K10D's sales
chart not to be that much different from K100D because of
production limitations.
It cannot compare to Canon or Nikons but do you really think that
Pentax could sell 180,000 K100Ds per month even if they could make
them? I don't and I don’t think that anyone else does either.

Pentax chose to only make 15,000 K100Ds per month, yet when they
made the *ist DS they produced 20,000 black units per month and
I think what people are trying to point out is the order of
magnitute in current production capacity. Whether Pentax chooses
not to produce more, or simply does not have the production
capacity I do not know. But you seem to imply that you know that it
is simply a matter of choice, not limitiations in production
capacity. Do you know that for a fact or just speculating based on
numbers?

If you look at their historic monthly numbers they seem to average
well below the monthly average of a D-Rebel or the entry-level
Nikons...
That's right, however they were unable to sell the *ist DS in the
numbers they had originally planned and produced an overall sales
estimate for 2005-2006 that was only 20,000 units more than the
estimate for the last five months for 2004-2005.
Is this *istDS "unable to sell" factoid based on the production outputs or estimates/numbers/actualsales given by Pentax? Production runs do not necessarily run all year long so they are only a rule of thumb. They probalby wouldn't have produced a silver edition if they were having trouble selling the DS?
Their sales estimate for 2006-2007 is 250,000 units, more than
double their 2005-2006 sales figure. What they don't want to do is
produce more units and be unable to sell them. They have only just
managed to return their Imaging System Business to profitability.

If 2006-2007 goes well, I expect to see them be a bit bolder in
2007-2008.
Pentax is also making an undisclosed number of K110Ds,
As I have said in my posts. However the number is tiny. They didn't
put it on sale in Japan and in countries like the UK it is
exclusive to one chain. The price difference between the camera
with SR and without is $100.
and
(according to posts in the Pentax forum) they may also be using the
same facility to roll out the Samsung equivalents (GX10). So that
seems to be sort of in the same ballpark as the DS/DL...
The GX-10 is NOT the equivalent of the K100D, it is the equivalent
of the K10D. There has been no Samsung K100D equivalent. Pentax
choose the 15,000 units per month figure for the K100D based on
their expected sales of the camera.
No one claimed the GX10 is equlvalent to the K100D, not sure why you are disputing that :-) The K10D/K100D have similar initial production outputs (13K vs 15K) but we don't know how many they are making for Samsung.
However they found that demand in Japan was so high they couldn't
fulfil it, which meant that other markets had to wait for this
camera to be deployed.
I don't think they were running the DS2/DL2 productions in parallel
with the DS/DL...
No, each line is distinct e.g. 20,000 *ist DL OR 24,000 *ist DL &
*ist DS2.
So basically we do not know if they have an upper production limit (facility wise) of 30-40K per month or they simply decide not to make that many... I don't think any of the above numbers prove or disprove either possibility
later they also produced 6,000 silver units per month. With the
*ist DL they produced 20,000 units per month while also producing
4,000 *ist DS2s per month. The *ist DL was later replaced by the
*ist DL2 with a production run of only 3,000 units per month.

Over the life of the cameras the production figures went something
like this:

20,000 *ist DS Black
26,000 *ist DS Black & *ist DS Silver
20,000 *ist DL
24,000 *ist DL & *ist DS2
7,000 *ist DS2 & *ist DL2
15,000 K100D

These production runs were not based on their maximum capacity but
on the number of cameras they thought they could sell.

Which is why I said:

"It's not so much a matter of how many units can they produce per
month rather it's more a matter of how many units do they think
they can sell a month."

Note that the numbers for the K110D are not included but due to its
limited distribution and appeal these are believed to be very small.

--
GMT+1 (summertime)
--
Comprehensive Photokina 2006 speculation:
http://photographyetc.livejournal.com
--
GMT+1 (summertime)
--
Comprehensive Photokina 2006 speculation: http://photographyetc.livejournal.com
 
These are only weekly sales. The D70 is long gone as a current product. Unless you are referring to the D70s. The D50 was not included in that chart but that doesn't mean it wasn't selling. I think there is about 13-15% of sales not listed in that chart (eg other models). Someone with more patience could cross-reference that with the manufacturer market share chart to figure out how much the remaining Nikons have. I am too sleepy to attempt that now :)
where is D50, D70?
--
Comprehensive Photokina 2006 speculation: http://photographyetc.livejournal.com
 
It's not so much a matter of how many units can they produce per
month rather it's more a matter of how many units do they think
they can sell a month.
Actually, it is. The production facility for Pentax simply cannot
compare with that for Canon or Nikon. The initial production of
K10D is probably 10 to 15% that of D80. Considering the sales of
K100D and the reception of K10D so far, Pentax could have sold 3 or
4x that number easily. Therefore, I would expect K10D's sales
chart not to be that much different from K100D because of
production limitations.
It cannot compare to Canon or Nikons but do you really think that
Pentax could sell 180,000 K100Ds per month even if they could make
them? I don't and I don’t think that anyone else does either.

Pentax chose to only make 15,000 K100Ds per month, yet when they
made the *ist DS they produced 20,000 black units per month and
I think what people are trying to point out is the order of
magnitute in current production capacity. Whether Pentax chooses
not to produce more, or simply does not have the production
capacity I do not know. But you seem to imply that you know that it
is simply a matter of choice, not limitiations in production
capacity. Do you know that for a fact or just speculating based on
numbers?

If you look at their historic monthly numbers they seem to average
well below the monthly average of a D-Rebel or the entry-level
Nikons...
That's right, however they were unable to sell the *ist DS in the
numbers they had originally planned and produced an overall sales
estimate for 2005-2006 that was only 20,000 units more than the
estimate for the last five months for 2004-2005.
Is this *istDS "unable to sell" factoid based on the production
outputs or estimates/numbers/actualsales given by Pentax?
Yes.
Production runs do not necessarily run all year long so they are
only a rule of thumb. They probalby wouldn't have produced a silver
edition if they were having trouble selling the DS?
Unless they were trying a different tactic and possibly reduced or ceased production of the black unit. The DS sold well initially then dropped off pretty quickly - it was too expensive when compared to the competition but it was a LOT cheaper than the *ist D. So as well as picking up some new customers it would have offered existing film customers a digital upgrade.
Their sales estimate for 2006-2007 is 250,000 units, more than
double their 2005-2006 sales figure. What they don't want to do is
produce more units and be unable to sell them. They have only just
managed to return their Imaging System Business to profitability.

If 2006-2007 goes well, I expect to see them be a bit bolder in
2007-2008.
Pentax is also making an undisclosed number of K110Ds,
As I have said in my posts. However the number is tiny. They didn't
put it on sale in Japan and in countries like the UK it is
exclusive to one chain. The price difference between the camera
with SR and without is $100.
and
(according to posts in the Pentax forum) they may also be using the
same facility to roll out the Samsung equivalents (GX10). So that
seems to be sort of in the same ballpark as the DS/DL...
The GX-10 is NOT the equivalent of the K100D, it is the equivalent
of the K10D. There has been no Samsung K100D equivalent. Pentax
choose the 15,000 units per month figure for the K100D based on
their expected sales of the camera.
No one claimed the GX10 is equlvalent to the K100D, not sure why
you are disputing that :-) The K10D/K100D have similar initial
production outputs (13K vs 15K) but we don't know how many they are
making for Samsung.
However they found that demand in Japan was so high they couldn't
fulfil it, which meant that other markets had to wait for this
camera to be deployed.
I don't think they were running the DS2/DL2 productions in parallel
with the DS/DL...
No, each line is distinct e.g. 20,000 *ist DL OR 24,000 *ist DL &
*ist DS2.
So basically we do not know if they have an upper production limit
(facility wise) of 30-40K per month or they simply decide not to
make that many... I don't think any of the above numbers prove or
disprove either possibility
[...]

--
GMT+1 (summertime)
 
Digital cameras in Japan - Product sales ranking / market share for most recent recorded sales week:

1 Canon IXY800 7.8%
2 Canon IXY70 5.0%
3 Casio EXZ600 4.3%
4 Casio EXZ1000 3.9%
5 Nikon Coolpix S5 2.9%
6 Panasonic FX 07 2.1%
7 Olympus u750 1.7%
=8 Olympus Fe180 1.7%
=8 Sony T10 1.7%
=8 Fuji F30 1.7%

So Panasonic share of "top 10" is small.
Top 10 models only account for 1/3 of digital camera market.

Surprise for westerners may be the high ranking of Casio - a name associated with making calculators - but their small cameras are very very good for the target market. (heh - ask Ken Rockwell)
 
every panny defender says that "the l1 is not intended..." and frankly that is a little on the pathetic side. so, what fellows like you are saying is that the l1 (just like the lc-1) are products designed and produced for museums, as there are so few people buying, what else could it be?

as far as "mass market dslr" for panny goes, just take a look at neighbouring oly. they have attempted at that for a few years now and look where that's got them. wish 'em all, luck though ('cuz they're gonna need it).

p.s. i must confess that i am drawn to the shape of the l1 and that i'm darn offended at the price especially as the l1 is NOT worth it. though,... i would want one for my museum... even though i'd never use it (well, except for the times i'd be taking it out in town to impress artsy chicks and the sorts).
I sound like a broken record, but the Panasonic L1 is not intended
to sell in big numbers. Panasonic is only making a few thousand of
them per month, and combined with their high price, it is clear
that Panasonic is not expecting them to make a dent in the market
share charts. Just like the LC-1, the primary purposes appears to
be a flagship camera for technical/marketing/advertising purposes,
to establish themselves in the eyes of the market, etc, etc, etc...

We have to wait for Panasonic to produce a mass-market DSLR before
we can make any statements such as the ones below...
 
Pentax is especially strong in its home market, but this chart
doesn't really mean that it is that strong.
Pentax factories runs 24h a day on a three shift basis and they cannot meet demand. They make money. Still, the K10D hasn't reached the market yet. Being strong has really not much to do with sales volume; just Look at GM and Ford.
 
every panny defender says that "the l1 is not intended..." and
frankly that is a little on the pathetic side. so, what fellows
like you are saying is that the l1 (just like the lc-1) are
products designed and produced for museums, as there are so few
people buying, what else could it be?
proof of concept, a 'public beta' (not like google, though) ;)

get field experience, get production line experience. get some press.

but I don't think it EVER was planned to be a money maker. more like bragging rights, I guess.
p.s. i must confess that i am drawn to the shape of the l1 and that
i'm darn offended at the price especially as the l1 is NOT worth
it. though,..
the price offends me too, and I'm a big panny supporter. I'll never buy the l1 at that price. not even at HALF its price. no way.

some pany people ARE reasonable. not everyone is happy about that L1 ...

--
Bryan (pics only: http://www.flickr.com/photos/linux-works )
(pics and more: http://www.netstuff.org ) ~
 
Are these numbers factory shipments or retail sales? I have heard that factory shipments is the common measure published in Japan. And to get weeklyt datsa lke this, it is probably far easier to go on reporting from factores than to have to gather data from numerous retailers of thier sales for the week.

And as shipments, they make sense, along with the prevous figures for June and July. In each case, there are rapid spikes for newly released products (shipping faster than retail sales to fill the supply channels).

If they are shipments, all that these numbers do is identify which companies had new mass market DSLRs during the reporting period: the June-July figures had spikes for the Sony A-100 and Pentax K100D and K110D; the more recent figures have spikes for the Canon 400D and Nikon D80.

I will wait for corporate quarterly and annual reports to get a real idea of DSLR sales levels.
 
Using your logic then the D80 should and probably has cannibalized D200 sales. It has many of the same features at a lower cost.
The issue for Canon was never how easily they could make a new
Rebel with a 10 MP sensor. The problem they faced was in the
market positioning and pricing. I am willing to bet that they
ended up largely killing the sales of the 30D, quite early in it's
life cycle in order to do this.

They may well have had to sacrifice some profitability in order to
keep their market share here.

Right now, until they bring out a new 10 MP (or even 12 MP) 40D,
they have a major hole in their product line. And if they bring
out the 40D this year, they will clearly have admitted that they
took a hit on the 30D.
 
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