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Japanese DSLR sales

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Very intersesting. I knew that the XTi will do well, but didn't expect such low peak and further slowdown of the D80.

Sony is also dropping quickly and the Panny L1 will (and should) hit rock bottom soon. It seems the XT got a boost when the price dropped but still going strong.

I wonder how the K10D will do in Japan. Thanks for posting,

Ilias
--
http://s20.photobucket.com/albums/b207/iliask
 
We need to see the next month to see how this curve pans out. The A100 and the 400D have almost the same sales curve, just one is delayed. By next month or so, it could be right down running even with the A100.
 
PhotoTraveler said:
We need to see the next month to see how this curve pans out. The
A100 and the 400D have almost the same sales curve, just one is
delayed. By next month or so, it could be right down running even
with the A100.
Click to expand...
I very much doubt that the 400d share will fall to a100 current 10% market share. Canon will keep a big market share. Not shown on that chart is that they also have 5% of Japanese dslr volume sales with the 5d.

The next "shock" for these figures is the Pentax K10d release. Pentax has a popular following - even with the now very "outdated" K100D.

The D80 is (IMO) nice but over-priced. Price sells. Nikon must look at this and either drop D80 prices, or bring in a cheaper dslr - perhaps 10mp d50 successor at 400d or lower price - to hold against the new competition. Sony hope to be #2 looks like it will be a very long term goal.
 
If you notice, EVERY DSLR actually has a peak in the 1st month, and then a dropoff. The only reason you don't see it for the EOS 400 is that the graph does not extend far enough. It would be expected that the EOS 400 peak would be double the size of the Sony Alpha and Nikon D80 peaks, because Canon has much more of the DSLR retail channel than the other vendors.

There certainly is not any falloff of the D80 sales. What that graph reflects is sales from the manufacturer into the channel - NOT from the channel into the end consumers. The patterns are too early to tell anything, other than the fact that the EOS 400 is significantly the highest volume (no surprise), while the EOS 30D, Nikon D80, and Sony Alpha are pretty close to one another in the 2-4 slots, and their relative order remains to be hashed out. It IS interesting that the Olympus E-330 didn't even make the list, and the new Pentax is as low as it is.
 
DougJGreen said:
If you notice, EVERY DSLR actually has a peak in the 1st month, and
then a dropoff. The only reason you don't see it for the EOS 400
is that the graph does not extend far enough. It would be expected
that the EOS 400 peak would be double the size of the Sony Alpha
and Nikon D80 peaks, because Canon has much more of the DSLR retail
channel than the other vendors.
Click to expand...
Yes - but 400d peak is MUCH bigger than a100 peak or D80 peak.
DougJGreen said:
There certainly is not any falloff of the D80 sales. What that
graph reflects is sales from the manufacturer into the channel -
NOT from the channel into the end consumers. The patterns are too
early to tell anything, other than the fact that the EOS 400 is
significantly the highest volume (no surprise), while the EOS 30D,
Nikon D80, and Sony Alpha are pretty close to one another in the
2-4 slots, and their relative order remains to be hashed out. It
IS interesting that the Olympus E-330 didn't even make the list,
and the new Pentax is as low as it is.
Click to expand...
A couple of corrections. Those BCN rankings are retail sales stats. from department stores etc - not wholesale deliveries.
The "new" pentax is the "old" K100. The K10d will sell like hot cakes.
 
freddyNZ said:
DougJGreen said:
If you notice, EVERY DSLR actually has a peak in the 1st month, and
then a dropoff. The only reason you don't see it for the EOS 400
is that the graph does not extend far enough. It would be expected
that the EOS 400 peak would be double the size of the Sony Alpha
and Nikon D80 peaks, because Canon has much more of the DSLR retail
channel than the other vendors.
Click to expand...
Yes - but 400d peak is MUCH bigger than a100 peak or D80 peak.
Click to expand...
As I said, the EOS 400D peak would be expected to be double the size of the D80 and Alpha 100. For one thing, that's the Canon high volume Runner, while the D80 is a midrange camera, and for another, Canon has ALOT more of the retail channel than Nikon in Japan. It's way too early to draw any long term conclusions from those graphs. Until they've actually been selling steady state for at least 3 months, it's hard to determine where they will end up. But it IS clear that Sony has slid in between Canon and Nikon in the Japan market, and that Pentax is well above Panasonic
 
DougJGreen said:
It's way too early to draw any long term conclusions from
those graphs. Until they've actually been selling steady state for
at least 3 months, it's hard to determine where they will end up.
But it IS clear that Sony has slid in between Canon and Nikon in
the Japan market, and that Pentax is well above Panasonic
Click to expand...
There is no long term conclusion from those graphs - for sure. But there is not going to be a "steady state" as there is the K10d to come soon, then something else from someone else to follow as sure as day follows night.

Sony hasn't come anywhere near to slide between Nikon / Canon!

Even if they can hold present 10% of entry level sales, Nikon has at least 30% of total dslr sales. Canon has over 50%.
 
When Canon announced 400D and expected 45% market share in the first few months I thought they were rather optimistic considering the competition's features. Not so it seems.

Pentax with the K10D is playing a risky game; too many features in an entry level priced camera can drive initial sales but gives buyers no incentive for future mid-range upgrades.

The market does not seem to be feature driven but pricing. Now it all depends on how agressive Canon will decide to be with 30D's successor.

Ilias

--
http://s20.photobucket.com/albums/b207/iliask
 
freddyNZ said:
The "new" pentax is the "old" K100. The K10d will sell like hot
cakes.
Click to expand...
It will, IF they can produce enough units. I bet that K100D would have been even higher, but Pentax isn't the best when it comes to production volume. There was this topic that had the numbers how many units Canon can produce Xti/400D in a month and Pentax was far behind it.

--

If a man empties his purse into his head, no one can take it away from him. An investment of knowledge always pays the best interest
 
saotupp said:
freddyNZ said:
The "new" pentax is the "old" K100. The K10d will sell like hot
cakes.
Click to expand...
It will, IF they can produce enough units. I bet that K100D would
have been even higher, but Pentax isn't the best when it comes to
production volume. There was this topic that had the numbers how
many units Canon can produce Xti/400D in a month and Pentax was far
behind it.
Click to expand...
It's not so much a matter of how many units can they produce per month rather it's more a matter of how many units do they think they can sell a month.
saotupp said:
--
If a man empties his purse into his head, no one can take it away
from him. An investment of knowledge always pays the best interest
Click to expand...
--
GMT+1 (summertime)
 
There's a whole load of models not included in that graph, so don't imagine that they're not selling just because they're not featured.

--
mumbo jumbo
 
iliask said:
The market does not seem to be feature driven but pricing.
Click to expand...
They love tiny things that produce great quality at low price... just like the sales of cars there. ;)

-------------------------------------------
See the colors of my world in:
thw.smugmug.com
 
mpixel said:
It's not so much a matter of how many units can they produce per
month rather it's more a matter of how many units do they think
they can sell a month.
Click to expand...
Actually, it is. The production facility for Pentax simply cannot compare with that for Canon or Nikon. The initial production of K10D is probably 10 to 15% that of D80. Considering the sales of K100D and the reception of K10D so far, Pentax could have sold 3 or 4x that number easily. Therefore, I would expect K10D's sales chart not to be that much different from K100D because of production limitations.
 
how when the Japan sales figures for the month of July were first shown, people were exclaiming how successful the A100 was and how the market shares of Canon (and very slightly for Nikon) were dramatically reduced.

And now, when the sales figure for Aug to mid-Sep are shown, people are ascribing the initial peak sales of the 400D to Canon's big retail channel.

I guess this is why it's so tough to be at the top.
DougJGreen said:
There certainly is not any falloff of the D80 sales. What that
graph reflects is sales from the manufacturer into the channel -
NOT from the channel into the end consumers. The patterns are too
early to tell anything
Click to expand...
Interesting that this was not immediately pointed out when the A100 was first released.
DougJGreen said:
while the EOS 30D,
Nikon D80, and Sony Alpha are pretty close to one another in the
2-4 slots
Click to expand...
... not forgetting that the 30D has been around for a few months now while the D80 is a very recent product.
DougJGreen said:
IS interesting that the Olympus E-330 didn't even make the list,
Click to expand...
Perhaps because the Oly E330 is a little more expensive?

Do not forget another thing: this is just the Japanese market.

But as I understand, Japanese companies are typically more concerned about achieving success in their own country than overseas sales.

-------------------------------------------
See the colors of my world in:
thw.smugmug.com
 
Here's the Japanese DSLR market share chart broken down by manufacturers:



Blue - Canon
Yellow - Nikon
Red - Sony
Green - Pentax
Pink - Olympus
Gold - Panasonic
 
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