J
jeff-c
Guest
I bet the result would be much different if the 24-70/2.8L is compared to the 17-55/2.8 EF-S.
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Nikon finally a change of heart ? Full Frame Nikon is on the table ?
- Thread starter BlackRockArt
- Start date
My main gripe was with the part you wrote about whether or not he would be able to afford the $8000 cam. While you bring up a valid point - that many users will be forced to stick with DX due to price, Adam's quandary brings up a realistic scenario that more than a few pros and amateurs will face. The discussion may be moot to many users due to the estimated price barrier of a FF body, but for many others it will not be.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Nikon rumors about 22 or 23Mpxl full-frame are nothing more than a smokescreen to buy time. Canon is releasing just such an offering, making the timing of these Nikon "announcements" somewhat interesting. Just the whispers of unsubstantiated rumors seem to be enough to make us wonder if Nikon is getting closer.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Nikon rumors about 22 or 23Mpxl full-frame are nothing more than a smokescreen to buy time. Canon is releasing just such an offering, making the timing of these Nikon "announcements" somewhat interesting. Just the whispers of unsubstantiated rumors seem to be enough to make us wonder if Nikon is getting closer.
RomanJohnston
Forum Pro
LOL> ...let them build the 18MP prosumer model....
If I am going to upgrade from my D2X....it will have to be more than just a lateral jump from 12DX to 12FF.
18MP would be enough to get me off my wallet.
24 even more so. (If Thom Hogans predictions are correct)
Guess I gotta start saving now...
Rp,am
--
Schrodinger's cat is alive...no...dead...no...alive.....no, wait....
http://www.pbase.com/romansphotos/
If I am going to upgrade from my D2X....it will have to be more than just a lateral jump from 12DX to 12FF.
18MP would be enough to get me off my wallet.
24 even more so. (If Thom Hogans predictions are correct)
Guess I gotta start saving now...
Rp,am
--
Schrodinger's cat is alive...no...dead...no...alive.....no, wait....
http://www.pbase.com/romansphotos/
I thought, after so many years, this reality was over. FF people went Canon.
Not everybody believes in Jesus, y'know?
Loansharkx
Senior Member
Definitely not.
1st, you don't need to alert the competition during developmental stages
2nd, you don't need bad press if it takes longer than expected
3rd you don't want harsh feelings in the market if you R&D something and then decide it's a bad idea.
Julio
1st, you don't need to alert the competition during developmental stages
2nd, you don't need bad press if it takes longer than expected
3rd you don't want harsh feelings in the market if you R&D something and then decide it's a bad idea.
Julio
v_
Senior Member
There must be a marketing fuss, but when Nikon made the first DX lens they have chose a direction to follow. At least for a while. This will give them the time they develope the winner FF. They will only introduce a FF, when that camera is free of all the current digital FF problems (CA, vignetting, etc) and will offer something that is not on the market.
You have nailed it! Nikon does not make average products. They make the one of the kind products that people will remember and talk about even in the future. FF Nikon will be another milestone. IMO the rest of the brands sell the little gravel pieces, while Nikon makes the milestones. Gravel sells better and the profit is more, but all in all I am pleased with all my Nikon products.
These "I need full frame" guys really think that they will be better photographers, if they'll shoot FF. Yes, I can think of some extremely narrow range of photographers that really need FF, the rest is just bs. For all of those guys; be happy to have 200 2.8 lens acting as a 300 2.8 and so on.
Viktor
'Happy shooting!'
Thom Hogan
Forum Pro
[snip]
You and others fail to distiguish between tactics and strategy. Product details are tactics. Platform foundation is strategy. In general in tech, you need to divulge strategy to your customers, but you keep tactics quiet for both marketing and competitive reasons. To use the Apple example: the strategic initiative, announced publicly, was a full transfer to the Intel processor from PowerPC. The tactical products, such as the MacBook Pro, were kept secret until the day they appeared. Perfectly fine example of tech executiion, IMHO.
Full frame versus DX is a STRATEGIC issue for Nikon. Its customers do not currently know, and can't even guess, what the strategy is going forward. Those that need FF have therefore had to abandon Nikon. (I'll also note that a lot of folk that have switched seem to think that Canon has a clearer strategy, but frankly, I think the Canon strategy is even more murky than Nikon's; Canon better not count on keeping those folks if someone better comes along ;
The particulars of the D3h or D3x are TACTICS. Whether those particular cameras are full frame, have 18, 20, or 24mp, etc., are things that you wouldn't generally disclose until you're ready to launch the product (and Nikon, in case you're reading, "launch" means getting the camera into at least a few customer hands, even if it is a specially selected pre-availability group of pros).
Nikon has two primary strategic questions on the table:
- DX, DX+FF, DX transitions to FF, or FF?
- Whose sensor technology is the platform, Sony, LBCAST, or other?
Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D50, D70, D100, D200, D1 series, D2h, D2x, S2 Pro
http://www.bythom.com
I agree with you on this issue. But it appears to be a strategy that they either cannot or are not willing to disclose at this point, and that makes good marketing sense to me. However, in this discussion I am taking the position of a marketing consultant, which I am, rather than a Nikon user, which I also am.
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JohnE
Equipment list in profile
'My children say that I am the family paparazzi .'
Thom Hogan
Forum Pro
Okay. But if Nikon does introduce a FF product, we'll be able to see who was right ;
Yes, but as you often do, you've shifted what you said. Your ORIGINAL thought here was that the number of debates would go down, now you just say they'll just shift to something useful. My comment was to your original point. Yours should be, too.
I'm not sure what you mean by "that," as there are several thoughts you're responding to.
So if Nikon would say DX only, you think that there would be a sudden surge in DX lens purchases? There are two kinds of photographers in the world, those that are working at it for a living--they've purchased what they need (or at least should have). Then there are the more casual group that ranges from snapshot amateurs to prosumers. The numbers I see don't indicate that these groups have "limited their investment" in DX lenses. They all have seem to have at least one, so the question quickly becomes "how many do you need?" I'll be the first one to say that there are lots of gaps in Nikon's DX lineup, but I get by just fine with one DX lens.
I think all the companies are reeling from development cycles that went from five to eight years down to 18 months, even Canon. Going faster won't help them, actually, and might hurt them more. I watched this same problem hit the PC industry--you can't push the cycle much tighter than it already is.
I actually see a lot of data on who purchases what, and it consistently surprises me. The D200 most certainly was purchased by large numbers that would have (and probably should have) considered a D70s. The D2x was purchased by quite a few folk that should have bought a D50. I deal with this issue every day, actually.
What? Using WHICH of my arguments? Show me the logic that you're following here.
Really? We know that? I most certainly don't. You're confusing "the price is higher at product intro" with "the profit is highest at product info." I've never had a tech product that was most profitable at introduction.
Nikon tends to price and inventory protect dealers. The big boxes have right to return for credit. (Which reminds me. I was conversing with a camera dealer the other day who told me why he's considering not carrying the Sony Alpha: he felt the terms are more onerous than the other camera companies, including such things as a requirement to stock some number of compact digitals.)
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Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D50, D70, D100, D200, D1 series, D2h, D2x, S2 Pro
http://www.bythom.com
Thom Hogan
Forum Pro
This is a very Japanese way of saying "not at this time." To date, I haven't seen any statement out of Nikon that I'd even come close to interpreting as being "yes, we're going to have a FF camera at some point."
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Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D50, D70, D100, D200, D1 series, D2h, D2x, S2 Pro
http://www.bythom.com
No, I don't. Plenty of professional Nikon shooters (I'm not claiming all of them are) have been asking for FF for years only to be told they don't need it.
So is it their job to know what the public wants or to dictate what the public needs?
Just like the prompt arrival of the D200? How many years was it rumored to be released before it actually materialiazed and now that their largest maker of chips wants to overtake their market share...
I don't think that I concur with your conclusion above, but you certainly may have your opinion.
I certainly agree with these two decisions. A third question might be, "Do they trust any FF sensor on the market? Is one available?"
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JohnE
Equipment list in profile
'My children say that I am the family paparazzi .'
Two errors, one trivial, one grave....
The trivial: assuming the FF people who went Canon represent the remaing Nikon users.
The grave: taunting via chiding a religous belief.
BobHo
Senior Member
I have to agree with you about the murkiness of Canon's strategy. Speaking as a former 10D owner, I'd have to say that their introduction of EF-S lenses, which are incompatible with the D30, D60 and 10D, was both strategic and a major blunder. One of the reasons that I went FF with a 5D was to simplify the decision-making process.
Even if Canon introduces a crop camera to leapfrog the D200, I'd only buy one as a way of increasing the focal lengths of my telephoto lenses, when using them in good light.
However, I don't see why the particular sensor technology used by Nikon is particularly important, much less strategic.
Bob
Even if Canon introduces a crop camera to leapfrog the D200, I'd only buy one as a way of increasing the focal lengths of my telephoto lenses, when using them in good light.
However, I don't see why the particular sensor technology used by Nikon is particularly important, much less strategic.
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Bob
And your 2 Errors:
-Pros who "NEED" FF have gone the Canon route. All the ones who do not "NEED" FF have stayed with Nikon, partially. That includes me.
-Religion, nowadays, has changed. I thought Elvis was God... no?
BlackRockArt
Senior Member
You be the judge.
(
(
Thom Hogan
Forum Pro
Canon and Sony have made it a strategic issue. Good marketing can do that. And again, this is siimlar (although inverse) to the Apple switch. In Apple's case, the clear question was whether or not the PowerPC chip could be scaled up any further in CPU speed, most notably in the notebook market. With notebooks becoming a larger percentage of sales and the primary growth area, you can't risk the public thinking that you'll never get to 2Ghz when everyone else is beyond it (hmm, sounds suspiciously like DSLR megapixels ;
In Nikon's case, there has long been an unfounded speculation that they don't have control of their sensor destiny, much like the speculation that Apple didn't have control of their CPU destiny (which was more true than the Nikon speculation). In Nikon's case, Sony has entered the consumer DSLR market with a low-end entry that matches Nikon's high-end, and Sony clearly controls their own destiny with sensors. Look at all the idle (but wrong) speculation in the forums here that Sony might stop selling sensors to Nikon. Dealers have been known to say incorrect things to make a sale, so what happens is that you end up being anti-marketed by your competitor. And in the long run, that's a signficant friction you have to fix or risk losing sales. Tactics don't tend to work too well at reducing that friction. For example, you could do what Pentax recently did, which was to reduce price significantly, but that can send a wrong message to consumers, who might think that a desperation move; and it did nothing to strategically place your sensor bet.
With Sony, the problem is Microsoftian in nature. If everyone but Canon uses Sony sensors then Sony = DSLR Image Quality. Hey, and Sony makes a DSLR line. So I guess I should probably just buy Sony. When Microsoft Office became the defacto file standard for business, the rest of the players were toast. That's Sony's game, and Nikon's current strategy, whatever it may be, is unknown to the consumer, so they'll simply glom onto the strategies they see...
--
Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D50, D70, D100, D200, D1 series, D2h, D2x, S2 Pro
http://www.bythom.com
Thom Hogan
Forum Pro
I see. So, let me ask a telling question. At what point do you want to disclose your strategy to your customers: before they've made up their mind what platform they'll use or after?
The DSLR companies don't have until 2008 to choose their path. By then, the customers will have made their decisions and the primary driving force behind the sales for all companies will be replacement and augmentation.
--
Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D50, D70, D100, D200, D1 series, D2h, D2x, S2 Pro
http://www.bythom.com
LongTimeNikonUser
Senior Member
Edward Chatlos wrote:
[snip]
No but they have made lenses for cameras in these formats. The remaining lenses in that product line were discontinued in the January "bombshell" announcement about the discontinuance of most film cameras.
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LongTimeNikonUser
[snip]
No but they have made lenses for cameras in these formats. The remaining lenses in that product line were discontinued in the January "bombshell" announcement about the discontinuance of most film cameras.
Sure but you need to realize you're talking to Nikon fan(atics) here.
--
LongTimeNikonUser
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