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Full Frame (FF) - Nikon has no choice

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ff digital back for my f4 ;o)
 
If I were Nikon and I could build a 27mp do it all FF camera today I would still string out the product release over a series of upgrades until some new sensor technology I had simmering in the background became mature. That way as soon as everyone thinks they’ve got the camera just over the horizon there’s something even better and more amazing. Which ultimately means that the perfect “do it all” camera never really happens because manufacturers and marketing have a habit of manipulating expectations… which is one of the nice things about Canon continually redefining what should be expected from a DSLR. I’m not saying Canon forces Nikon to change their business plan on the fly but it may influence their forecasting and the direction of their RND over the next five years. I doubt we’re going to see a FF Nikon for at least three to four years, in the short term there’s too much money being made from APS-C, despite forum hype according to the various sales rep’s I’ve spoken too 5D’s are not flying off the shelves, there seems to be much more interest in the D200.

I think Nikon will introduce a D2x(S) with better image processing and high iso performance with modest refinements as a spacer before some completely new sensor technology is introduced which could be FF but I wouldn’t bet on it. If Nikon was to follow their current strategy they’d be trying to carve out a new niche manufacturing a product which doesn’t compete directly but laterally with the Canon line up. With this in mind for Nikon to go FF it would indicate a lack of imagination and be a concession to Canon, I think they’ll try to avoid that if they can.
 
NikonJapan777 said:
NikonJapan777 said:
4. Nikon shall have to introduce another prosumer DSLR body every
18-24 months. These seem to be the merket expectations.
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Nikon does not have to do what the market says. It took 3 years
for the d200 to replace the d100.
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True you don't have to do what the market says. But unless you are on a suicide mission you do what the market says. There's a reason the DSRL sales have been declining for Nikon ...
 
Think of 35MM film as a sensor. Some improvements, yes, it was being refined as time yet on, but there were theorectical limits to what could be achieved. Everyone knew that 35MM was never going to equal larger film formats, but it survived until today because what it did was good enough for 99% of the photographers.

So, while I kind of agree with you, I think Nikon can refined the APS size format for quite some time. Smaller, optimized lens in a cost effective may be what a lot of people want.

On the other hand, theire is always a market for a high end model, be it a Lexus over a Toyota, or a Hassalblad over 35MM. Nikon would be foolish to let this high end market slip away. Nikon should offer whatever upgrade path that other major players offers
 
Hooray, DX cameras are going to be super-duper cheap!

Bring on FF so I can buy APS at rock-bottom prices!

I can't wait for the day when Nikon comes out with FF and thousands of people try to firesale their DX bodies and glass; I'll be scooping up fantastic equipment at fantastic prices. The thought of it makes my mouth water...

Maybe you're right, the D200 and the D2X are almost to the limits of what DX can do, but man, it sure is enough for me!

--
Take care,



http://matthewsaville.smugmug.com
 
Murray Bowles said:
If you like 35mm on a FF camera, you'd like 24mm on a DX camera, no?
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If I could get a Nikon 24/f2 AF or AF-S, yes. But do you see one? I don't. I am a lover of fast prime lens. Canon has lens like the 24/1.4, 35/1.4 and the 85/1.2! The only lens Nikon has that Canon does not is the new 200/2, but without a FF camera, the Nikkor 200/2 is simply too long for a portrait lens. But on a FF camera, it would be SWEET!!!!!!!

So when it comes right down to it, I want to have nice shallow DOF with very fast glass, not something Nikon seems to be focused on these days.

Sam
 
Yet another expert who knows the future of the camera industry better than Nikon (or any company except possibly Canon), or thinks that Nikon is lying when they repeatedly say that they have no plans for 35mm format DSLRs.
Eliav Korakh said:
2. Prices are dropping – The price of a D2X quality camera has dropped from $5000 to $1700 (D200) in one year
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Lot of components are less expensive in the D200 than the D2X, so that comparison tells us nothing: a Nikon N60 film SLR is a lot cheaper than an F6 too!
Comparing cameras that differ mostly in the sensor, I see
$1400 30D vs $3,300 5D
$4,000 1D MkII N vs $7,000 1Ds MkII
So 35mm format sensors continue to cost way beyond mainstream DSLR prices.
Eliav Korakh said:
5. Most people (not all) are used to 35mm format
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Not really true any more, anf getting les tue every year. The majority of DSLR buyers these days have never owned a 35mm format DSLR. Which probably means that soon, a majority of SLR users will be equipped with a lens collection oriented to a digital format like DX, EF-S or 4/3, and would find it inconvenient to change to a DSLR that only accepts 35mm format lenses.
 
All Nikon glass has light falloff as well as Canon. The lenses are pretty close in what you in image quality now. Nikon's weaknesses would show also if they could figure out that many customers are leaving them for FF.
 
There is no doubt in my mind that Nikon is busy toiling away...burning the midnight oil...cooking up the kettle as they design the full frame Nikon.

For anyone to think Nikon is going anywhere but the full frame freeway is simply delusional.

How many Nikonians have been lost to the full frame Canon camp? Plenty I imagine. Each month that passes without Nikon coming out with their full frame beast is a month that is lost to Canon.

Mark my words: Full Frame Nikon within 18 months!

I love Nikon!
 
nunatak said:
if we're talking about photography as a profession--a hybrid
investment is quickly amortized.
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Perhaps its time to introduce my personal economic theory to the world.

I equate everything to the price of beer. A Canon WA zoom lens can cost as much as 200 cases of US beer (or 150 cases of real beer! Sorry. I couldn't resist that. ;-)

Any money I have to spend duplicating lenses with Canon equivalents is money that would better have been spent on beer. Sure, a pro may quickly recover the cost, but wouldn't it have been better to not buy those lenses in the first place. That beer is lost forever, regardless of what your accountant tells you.
nunatak said:
there's no reason FF can't be circumvented as an issue. photography
is going through a transition period. things are being shook up.
many of the old tennents no longer apply and, imo, it's up to
people to innovate new solutions rather than wine about
unaffordable ones.
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The current period is indeed one of great change. Look at all the brand names that have disappeared or are in serious danger. We don't want Nikon to be added to that list.

--
Tuktu Sijuktei
'Please tell me if the lens cap is on.'
 
Eventually APS size sensors will have their limitations. We're probably close to those limitations now. Nikon is going to have to do something.

Full frame has the issue of light falloff when used with 35mm lenses.

What Nikon needs to do is put out a larger format sensor, not necessarily 35mm size, and a completely new line of lenses that won't produce light fall off. They could consider an adapter that would allow the lenses to work with 35mm and digital SLRs.

I think Nikon would make a fortune. Something with 20+ megapixels that falls under the size and price of the Mamiya ZD (if that thing ever comes out) and Hassleblad H2D-39.
 
..they feel that FF is not relevant in the digital world. Sounds like they are sticking with small noisey sensors. :)
 
tonywh said:
Spend a day working with 3 canon shooters, all long term pros. All
they theorised on was when canon would bring in the HSC like the
nikon D2x. There are a lot of sports and wildlife shooters who want
the exta reach. The savings in fast glass are enormous.
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I hope you were kind enough to inform these "long term pros" that it is actually possible to crop later.

--
Tuktu Sijuktei
'Please tell me if the lens cap is on.'
 
Film_Ruled said:
For what it is worth, I love my full frame Nikon FM3A's so much, I
have bought 3 more lenses for them in the last 2 weeks.......and
because Nikon will once again have the best system on earth when
they come out with a 35mm sensor.
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that if Nikon can produce a 35mm FF DSLR with the high ISO noise performance of even the first generation Canon 1Ds, I'd have a hard time not being seduced by a system that offers the flexibility to accommodate full-tilt auto-everything digital and completely batteryless manual operation using the same lens arsenal. It's this ability that has previously tempted me to add Nikons to my kit; only disappointment about certain aspects of their image quality have driven me to be a Canon-only shooter, currently.

I know it doesn't make a difference to a great many Nikon users using the DX platform, but I'm really hoping for a FF Nikon digital SLR in the very near future.

--
Garland Cary
 
It has just occured to me that maybe Nikon needs to think of FF the way they are currently thinking of film: a high end camera and a low end. The high end might be 24+MP and the low end at 12MP.

--
Tuktu Sijuktei
'Please tell me if the lens cap is on.'
 
deepsky63 said:
Eventually APS size sensors will have their limitations. We're
probably close to those limitations now. Nikon is going to have to
do something.
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APS size sensors have their limitations now. If anything as technology progresses the reverse is more likely, i.e. those limitations may become less.
deepsky63 said:
Full frame has the issue of light falloff when used with 35mm lenses.
Click to expand...
Tue.
deepsky63 said:
What Nikon needs to do is put out a larger format sensor, not
necessarily 35mm size, and a completely new line of lenses that
won't produce light fall off. They could consider an adapter that
would allow the lenses to work with 35mm and digital SLRs.
Click to expand...
In my opinion the entire debate between full frame and DX is a mute point, or at least will be. We will start to see some amazing resolution in DX soon and while its quite true that with every step up in DX will perhaps be matched by same in full frame, the fact remains there is only so far it can go before it gets totally impracticable and unworkable for the vast majority of users.

By that I mean, say the new Fuji S4 touts (for arguments sake) a 15MP sensor that gives 20MP when in high dynamic range mode. Now in my opinion this is bordering on the workable outer limit for mainstream pro and prosumer needs. Of course I'm not including those who do billboards or the like. But really how big do you ever really need your images to be?

The other thing I'll say about it is that I do believe people will shift their attention away from straight resolution stats to image quality once resolution can clearly exceed their highest requirements. Remember here, at the end of the day its meeting and/or exceeding your target market requirements that will bring success, nothing else. Image quality will become the new priority and this is where I personally believe Fuji are perfectly positioned to shine.
deepsky63 said:
I think Nikon would make a fortune. Something with 20+ megapixels
that falls under the size and price of the Mamiya ZD (if that thing
ever comes out) and Hassleblad H2D-39.
Click to expand...
Possibly, but are mainstream pro's and prosumers, even serious amateurs going to be happy handling monstrous image sizes when the vast majority of their requirements don't need it?

Not saying I'm right of course, but its food for thought.

--

 
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