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When DSLRs go full frame, will todays digi lenses be obsolete?

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taffy jon

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Hi all,

I am at the moment trying to decide on which camera to buy and possibly honed things down to a Nikon D50 with 18-70mm or a Sony R1.

The Nikon was just beginning to edge in front for me when I came across several posted concerns that set alarm bells ringing for me on the DSLR front.

Basically that it is inevitable that within the next couple of years, all DSLRs are going to eventually become full frame and so to invest in lenses designed specifically for today's smaller sensors is not necessarily a good investment as they could become obsolete.

The reusable glass thing was a big plus in favour of the Nikon for me, maybe it is after all better to go for an all in one for the time being and see how the land lies in a couple of years.
Life is so complicated!

Any opinions would be much appreciated.

TJ
 
taffy jon said:
Basically that it is inevitable that within the next couple of
years, all DSLRs are going to eventually become full frame and so
to invest in lenses designed specifically for today's smaller
sensors is not necessarily a good investment as they could become
obsolete.
Click to expand...
The Pope is an alien; therefore, the Earth has twenty moons.

In other words, are you sure your premise is correct?
 
Nikon seems committed to sticking with the Dx format in the near future. I wouldn't worry about it too much. Apart from the 18-70, there are a fairly small number of DX nikon lenses, so most of what they have will work on ff as well (they came from the film days). The only one I am hesitant about (which is neither here nor there as I don't have the cash) is the 17-55 2.8 which is about 1200 bucks and would be a heckuva investment to become obsolete. I figure, if 5 years down the road, the 18-70 doesn't work for me, I'm not out much. I'll probably pick up a 12-24 of some sort too, and again, I'm willing to risk that kind of money
--



A small but growing collection of my photos can be seen at
http://www.pbase.com/poliscijustin
 
The APS sized sensor seems to be a good size right now. Smaller sensors give more noise and they need higher quality optics. FF will require lenses with better edges and far more expensive sensors. Unless something drastic happens, I do not see FF becoming commonplace. If you want something big, look into the 645D Digital MF.
 
taffy jon said:
Basically that it is inevitable that within the next couple of
years, all DSLRs are going to eventually become full frame
Click to expand...
No, it's not inevitable, and the reason is cost. I'm sure 35mm format DSLRs will become less expensive, in the next few years, but so will APS-C format DSLRs. If 35mm format gets down to $2000, APS-C will be at $300. Guess which will be more popular? If you eventually decide to go to 35mm format, there will still be a very large market for DX/EF-S/DC/etc lenses.

--
Seen in a fortune cookie:
Fear is the darkroom where negatives are developed
 
and Sigma have just announced five new 4/3 lenses ..and they would not do that unless they think that they will be popular. Others will eventually follow including (I suspect) Pentax, because potentially, there'a lot of money to be made from this format. The key to it's success will be the development of 10-16mp sensors which perform as well as the Canon EOS 350xt, 20d etc. at high (800+) ISO.
 
insectman said:
and Sigma have just announced five new 4/3 lenses ..and they would
not do that unless they think that they will be popular. Others
will eventually follow including (I suspect) Pentax, because
potentially, there'a lot of money to be made from this format. The
key to it's success will be the development of 10-16mp sensors
which perform as well as the Canon EOS 350xt, 20d etc. at high
(800+) ISO.
Click to expand...
If clean ISO 800 at 16mp on 4/3 becomes available, at about the same time clean ISO 1600 at 16mp on APS-C and clean ISO 3200 on 35mm should also be available, or some variation on the above (say, clean ISO 1600 at 32mp on 35mm).

--
Seen in a fortune cookie:
Fear is the darkroom where negatives are developed
 
nickleback said:
If clean ISO 800 at 16mp on 4/3 becomes available, at about the
same time clean ISO 1600 at 16mp on APS-C and clean ISO 3200 on
35mm should also be available, or some variation on the above (say,
clean ISO 1600 at 32mp on 35mm).
Click to expand...
But what would be the price ?

100$ or 1,000$ or 10,000$ ?

Not every sensor technology is cheap enough to be available/affordable in larger formats. Especially complex designs like 3 layer RGB sensors or the super CCD SR or FFT CCDs.

And when you have really cheap 36mm x 24mm sensor technology somedays why stop there?

Why not make a cheap medium format camera ?
 
Cephalotus said:
nickleback said:
If clean ISO 800 at 16mp on 4/3 becomes available, at about the
same time clean ISO 1600 at 16mp on APS-C and clean ISO 3200 on
35mm should also be available, or some variation on the above (say,
clean ISO 1600 at 32mp on 35mm).
Click to expand...
But what would be the price ?

100$ or 1,000$ or 10,000$ ?
Click to expand...
You tell me.
Cephalotus said:
Not every sensor technology is cheap enough to be
available/affordable in larger formats. Especially complex designs
like 3 layer RGB sensors or the super CCD SR or FFT CCDs.
Click to expand...
If it is affordable in 4/3, it is quite likely to be affordable in APS-C as well. APS-C has 1.4x the area of 4/3, so you can figure the sensor will cost about 2 to 3 times as much. 35mm is 2.5x the area of APS-C, so you can figure somewhere around 7 to 10x the cost of APS-C.

If you want to assume 4/3 sensor = $100, then APS-C = $200 to $300, 35mm = $1400 to $3000.
Cephalotus said:
And when you have really cheap 36mm x 24mm sensor technology
somedays why stop there?
Click to expand...
Did I say that was likely to happen?
Cephalotus said:
Why not make a cheap medium format camera ?
Click to expand...
Because silicon doesn't scale well to large areas. That's why most DSLRs sold are smaller than 35mm. But there's a point where sensor size is no longer much of a cost issue. With current technology it seems to be around APS-C.

--
Seen in a fortune cookie:
Fear is the darkroom where negatives are developed
 
It may be just as likely that new lens and sensor technology make 35mm FF an unnecessary extravagance in the future.

http://www.dxo.com/en/business/cameraphones/dos.php

http://www.dxo.com/en/business/cameraphones/before_after_v.php?image_root=lowlight5

If this kind of performance leap happens in the DSLR arena 4/3rds may well become the new 35mm format, 1.5x crop the new medium format and full frame may become 'large format', with sales numbering down in the hundreds per year...

In the meantime, 1.5x crop already satisfies the needs of 90% of photographers, so FF has already become the new medium format. Unless Moore's law suddenly, miraculously changes to mean 'the die size of the same priced processor doubles every 18 months', instead of 'number of transistors in the same area doubles every 18 months', nothing's going to bring down the price of FF far enough that people will be willing to buy it to get extra performance that they don't need.
taffy jon said:
Hi all,

I am at the moment trying to decide on which camera to buy and
possibly honed things down to a Nikon D50 with 18-70mm or a Sony R1.
The Nikon was just beginning to edge in front for me when I came
across several posted concerns that set alarm bells ringing for me
on the DSLR front.
Basically that it is inevitable that within the next couple of
years, all DSLRs are going to eventually become full frame and so
to invest in lenses designed specifically for today's smaller
sensors is not necessarily a good investment as they could become
obsolete.
The reusable glass thing was a big plus in favour of the Nikon for
me, maybe it is after all better to go for an all in one for the
time being and see how the land lies in a couple of years.
Life is so complicated!

Any opinions would be much appreciated.

TJ
Click to expand...
 
taffy jon said:
Hi all,
Click to expand...
Hello
taffy jon said:
I am at the moment trying to decide on which camera to buy and
possibly honed things down to a Nikon D50 with 18-70mm or a Sony R1.
Click to expand...
OK
taffy jon said:
The Nikon was just beginning to edge in front for me when I came
across several posted concerns that set alarm bells ringing for me
on the DSLR front.
Click to expand...
So you're leening towards the R1?
taffy jon said:
Basically that it is inevitable that within the next couple of
years, all DSLRs are going to eventually become full frame and so
to invest in lenses designed specifically for today's smaller
sensors is not necessarily a good investment as they could become
obsolete.
Click to expand...
No, not all DSLR will have a fullsize 35*24mm sensor.

Some will have smaller (oly, pana, most Nikons etc.) Some will have larger (hasselblad, pentax, Mamiya etc)
taffy jon said:
The reusable glass thing was a big plus in favour of the Nikon for
me, maybe it is after all better to go for an all in one for the
time being and see how the land lies in a couple of years.
Life is so complicated!

Any opinions would be much appreciated.

TJ
Click to expand...
--
Anders

http://www.teamexcalibur.se/excalibursida4.html
http://www.teamexcalibur.se/excalibursida4a.html

event photography and photo journalism
 
what will become of all that big, heavy glass?

But seriously, you're going to read a lot of statements around here, many of them have no foundation in reality.

Theoretically, the FF (or more correctly, 24x36mm - what do you call medium format? More than Full Frame?) should produce 'better' photos than an APS/C or 4/3 sized sensor. Realistically, sensor technology is evolving to the point where the difference is negligible.

That leaves you with larger, heavier, and more expensive cameras and lenses, with little practical gain in quality or functionality. With film, the same debate arose between 35mm and medium format. The final judgment was that medium format was better than 35mm, but not better enough to offset the larger size, weight, and cost of MF.

We're still in the process of figuring out what the optimal size for digital still photography is. Your APS/C Nikon equipment will be useable for years to come, as Nikon has committed to this sensor size as it's go forward position.
 
The frame is always the sensor size. All frame sizes are arbitrary.

It's a useful pice of information indeed, to know the angle of view and the magnification of your camera/lens combo - but ultimately everything is full frame.

Other useful pieces of information are the resolving power of your lens vs the resolving power of your sensor - meaning can the lens match the capabilities of your sensor.

But knowing all the information, you choose a camera on your needs (and lets not forget cost while we're discussing this. $$$ is another factor :) ) and the quality of the image.

Everything we own today will be obsolete, at least "Technically" obsolete, in a short time.

Get what you NEED and ENJOY it. For tommorow will bring a new technology....

Dave
 
Son't believe the BS that some Canon users put out on here.

Nikon have NO intention of going to a 24x36 sensor, neither do Olympus, Panasonic, or Leica.
Pentax, who knows, but it's unlikely.

The 1Ds and 5D occupy such a tiny fraction of the market, no one else is interested in going there...

Even Canon making EF-S lenses admits that smaller sensors are here to stay.

Tim

--
http://catmangler.smugmug.com/
 
Joe0Bloggs said:
It may be just as likely that new lens and sensor technology make
35mm FF an unnecessary extravagance in the future.
Click to expand...
That is quite true......

......just as medium format became unnecessary for press/newspaper shooting about 35 years ago, and 5x4" press shooting went out of style for that purpose 15 years before that.

It is also wise to remember that.......

1) APS sized sensors are THE established format in digital.

2) The photographic world did NOT revolve around 35mm sized film for nearly 3/4 of its history.

3) Two FF camera marques have failed... Kodak and Contax
--
Regards,
Baz
 
APS will always provide a good, budget SLR option and will probably become its own niche. APS will probably spawn a few more variations as well like the new Panasonic - more digicam features features and different layouts will creep in as more electronics companies get into the game. APS cams produce excellent images which for most people with a few hundred to blow on a camera aqnd lens will prove more than adequate.

36mm will be another niche which is in reach of better off amateurs who dont mind dropping £1k on a decent lens. I dont think FF will ever be "cheap" and the demand on optics will demand higher outlay as well, but they will be available to those folks who would have bought high end SLRs or MF in the old days. They will be capable of higher performance for sure, but not without good technique and optics.
--
Steve
I spend most of my money on cameras and lenses, the rest I just waste...

http://www.pbase.com/steve_jacob
 
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