Almost all Canon's to go FF

Joe Sesto said:

"Brian Worley, product manager of D-SLR cameras at Canon Europa,
said that it's a long way before all EOS models will have a full
size sensor, but Canon's aim is to equip all models, except the
cheapest, with a 35mm sensor in the future."

David Martin said:

The most expensive is the 1DsII, and now the 5D, so at minimum it
indicates that the 1DII will go FF, and almost certainly the 20D
line.

Click to expand...

Last week David and I got into a protracted discussion on the
future of 1.3...which I said was a goner...and I was bluntly told
by him that Canon had made no such comment.

Now this week, David, you think that now even the 20D will be a FF.

Click to expand...

My comment was that the next iteration of the 20D may be 1.3.
I made a typo which I have already apologised for.

I had not realised previously that Canon planned to take their FF so far down the line, but that is obviously not yet-a-while.

You have already been small-minded enough to try to pick away at me regarding my not cutting out some of the excess text when replying to messages.
Please try not to be so competely sad when you next join the debate.

Joe Sesto said:

Seems ironic that your reversal takes place in such a brief time span.

--
Joe Sesto

P.S. IMHO the release of future EF-S lenses will forecast the fate
of the 20D...if there are no quality lenses released...the 20D and
it's progeny...die! The 350XT, etc. is then the survivor (the
cheapest) and the 20D technology trickles down to the remaining 1.6
FOV's. It lives on as a 1.6 only if there is some quality 2.8
glass designed for that FOV...and that seems unlikely.

Click to expand...

--
Regards,
DaveMart
Please see profile for equipment

You seem to want to personalize our differences. I've seen that before...should have been aware of it earlier. I hadn't bothered to study your voluminous and eclectic posting history before now.

You have to read my post and yours immediately before yours...you essentially said it will just FF for the most expensive and that the 20D might be FF, too.

My comment last week was that 1.3 was a goner as we know it ...and I was talking about the 1DMKII.

Now you contend that Canon will stuff a FF 548 sq.mm sensor in a body designed for a 337.5 sq.mm sensor with a small mirror intended for 1.6 FOV lenses and a corresponding viewfinder that will somehow cover a 1.3 image that is 1.6 times the area of the 20D.

If you make such a camera...delete the popup flash...to make room for the finder prism... increase the body size...to accommodate the sensor, mirror, etc. You no longer have a 20D, but a lightweight 1DMKII...a step which Canon just bypassed with the 5D.

There will be no further responses...as it no longer is a discussion but a diatribe.

Wish you well on all your future postings.

--
Joe Sesto

P.S. Last week Phil posted a reply to a question about the backup battery placement on the 5D. His reply quoted the entire OP without edit. He must now have some huge server...since he didn't bother to edit his reply. So it is hardly my place any longer to try to save his storage space...contrary to earlier comments from others, too.

David Martin said:

From here:
http://www.digit.no/wip4/detail.epl?id=59456
'Brian Worley, product manager of D-SLR cameras at Canon Europa,
said that it's a long way before all EOS models will have a full
size sensor, but Canon's aim is to equip all models, except the
cheapest, with a 35mm sensor in the future.'
My guess is that we will see the 20D migrate to FF in it's next
iteration as an interim measure.

Click to expand...

I highly doubt it. The 20D will probably be replace in Spring '06, I don't see Canon putting a FF sensor in it so soon after the 5D is introduced - not if they intend on keeping the retail price well below $2k; it will likely have the 1.6x and be somewhere between $1,000 and $1,500.

Mark

'Brian Worley, product manager of D-SLR cameras at Canon Europa, said that it's a long way before all EOS models will have a full size sensor, but Canon's aim is to equip all models, except the cheapest, with a 35mm sensor in the future.'

Definitions:

long way - next month or ten years from now

Canon's aim - a five year plan, a ten year plan, something that may or may not happen

Cheapest models - anything that's not the equivalent of a 1Ds or everything that's not the equivalent of a D Rebel.

Given the latitude in the definitions, Mr. Worley's statement could mean that next year all Canon DSLRs except the D Rebel will have full frame sensors.

Or, it could mean that:

Canon's plan for ten years down the road, a plan that is subject to big change, is for the top of the line cameras to have full frame sensors.

Or, it could just mean that Canon wants to sell more lenses and they don't want to discourage anyone.

--
Frank Weston - http://www.weston.smugmug.com

Amateurs worry about equipment.
Professionals worry about money.
Masters worry about light.

Frank Weston said:

Definitions:

Click to expand...

I agree totally.

It's analogous to a TV manufacturer saying that their aim for the future is for all TV's to be 50" plasma except for the cheapest models. It doesn't mean anything. Some people don't want or need 50" screens. The consumers will decide what sizes get manufactured. Or a new technology might come along that makes plasma obsolete.

Bobster2 said:

Frank Weston said:

Definitions:

Click to expand...

I agree totally.

It's analogous to a TV manufacturer saying that their aim for the
future is for all TV's to be 50" plasma except for the cheapest
models.

Click to expand...

Interesting example. I remember a press conference by Sharp at the 2004 Consumer Electronics Show, stating that they expect to replace all standard CRT TVs with LCDs by 2005 in Japan.

Bob

Not within the next 5 years-- probably longer:

http://www.e-fotografija.com/artman/publish/article_440.shtml

"Jernej: Are you planing to introduce some high end EF-S lenses in the near future?

TAKAYA: Definitely. We are always planing 5 year spans so within the next 5 years we will develop high and mid end or even some completely unique EF-S lenses. But those are based on requests of professional photographers, however at the same time DSLRS are getting more popular with non professionals, therefore we have to develop lenses for both markets. It is not a question of timing, but as a leader of professional photography industry we are always thinking of high end products and new technology."

David Martin said:

From here:
http://www.digit.no/wip4/detail.epl?id=59456
'Brian Worley, product manager of D-SLR cameras at Canon Europa,
said that it's a long way before all EOS models will have a full
size sensor, but Canon's aim is to equip all models, except the
cheapest, with a 35mm sensor in the future.'
My guess is that we will see the 20D migrate to FF in it's next
iteration as an interim measure.

--
Regards,
DaveMart
Please see profile for equipment

Click to expand...

Not next release. Probably not even in the release after that. By then, 1.3x probably won't even be around. By then, it will probably be only 1.6x and 1.0x, which makes sense because Canon has two types of lenses: EF-S (1.6x) and EF (1.0x). There are no 1.3x lenses, so it will be the easiest and most likely format to terminate.

David Martin said:

rdspear said:

I can't see how "it's a long way before..." turns into the next
release. I would guess the "40D" (assuming the logical
progression) in 2 years at the earliest, maybe the 50D in 3.5.

Click to expand...

--
Regards,
DaveMart
Please see profile for equipment

Click to expand...

I say almost because the thing only aspect that might worth discussing is When all DSLR's become full frame.

It is simply a matter of time, technology, and cost/market. Heck, they may come up with a C size sensor that acts just like a FF.

How about this: since the defect per surface area is the limiting factor at this time, maybe some company will come up with a way to stitch together smaller chips in an array to make any size desirable; leaving the total picture integration to firmware/software.

--
I will never photograph a cockroach.
http://droppingin.smugmug.com/

Why would you need to lose the flash for a full frame camera?

The Elan 7NE has a pop-up flash, prism, and ECF all with a full frame setup.

IMO Canon will embrace further FF (24x26mm) sensors and will also embrace 1.6 crop sensors. The 1.3 crop will go away soon.

Canon will further in the next few years expand their FF line Offering a variety that will begin with 1DSmk??? and then a progressively step down probably ranging from $8,000 US to $2000 US all FF but offering different value to performance features to suit style and budgets. I figure eventually 4 choices of FF cameras.

Then the will offer I figure 4 choices of 1.6 crop from a high end semi-pro model such as a future 20D replacement in around $2000 US down to the $500 US starter DSLR.

The concept has merit as it allows budget users to get into DLSR's, it allows photographers to embrace models to suit their budgets and styles and has enough choices to allow photographers to move up if need be.

--
visit my photo gallary of images from my 10D

http://phileas.fotopic.net/c258181.html

everyone here is either just guessing or posting their own "wish list."

The fact is that only Canon knows their future marketing plans, and they're not about to tell us.

I'd say, though, that a lot may depend on how many 5Ds they actually sell.

-Michael

Phileas Fogg said:

IMO Canon will embrace further FF (24x26mm) sensors and will also
embrace 1.6 crop sensors. The 1.3 crop will go away soon.
...

Click to expand...

I believe that Canon has had APS film SLR's in their line up in the past. Canon's current line up of film SLR's doens't include any these APS film SLR's anymore. I guess that for film SLR's they've moved to full frame (35mm) already.

In all seriousness...

During the recent 5D announcement and publications (white paper and Canon web site, not to mention Phil's preview) the 5D is constantly and prominently being compared to the 20D (and less to the 1D or 1Ds).

Somehow I get the strong impression that in time 20D's role, being a reasonably affordable and quality wise fairly well built D-SLR aimed at serious amateurs and semi-pro's alike, will be taken over by the 5D type full frame camera. Maybe not the current generation 5D, but a next generation 5D.
--
Victor Peters

Please see my reply earlier in the thread, Unfortunately I made typo, and I meant to write that I thought the next 20D model might be 1.3, not FF.

Mark B. said:

David Martin said:

From here:
http://www.digit.no/wip4/detail.epl?id=59456
'Brian Worley, product manager of D-SLR cameras at Canon Europa,
said that it's a long way before all EOS models will have a full
size sensor, but Canon's aim is to equip all models, except the
cheapest, with a 35mm sensor in the future.'
My guess is that we will see the 20D migrate to FF in it's next
iteration as an interim measure.

Click to expand...

I highly doubt it. The 20D will probably be replace in Spring '06,
I don't see Canon putting a FF sensor in it so soon after the 5D is
introduced - not if they intend on keeping the retail price well
below $2k; it will likely have the 1.6x and be somewhere between
$1,000 and $1,500.

Mark

Click to expand...

--
Regards,
DaveMart
Please see profile for equipment

Umm yes...

This whole thread is about speculation, however speculation has in the past proven at times to be correct. The thread is not meant to be anything serious, it's just fun banter of ifs and maybes. Time will unfold to show what and where anyone of us may be correct.

Michael Friedman said:

everyone here is either just guessing or posting their own "wish
list."

The fact is that only Canon knows their future marketing plans, and
they're not about to tell us.

I'd say, though, that a lot may depend on how many 5Ds they
actually sell.

-Michael

Click to expand...

--
visit my photo gallary of images from my 10D

http://phileas.fotopic.net/c258181.html

If you are thinking of buying lenses, then the nearest Canon have got to giving us a roadmap must have some weight in the calculation, in particular in the balance between buying a EF or an EF-S lens.

Everyone can evaluate the likely time frame of any switch to FF in the particular area they are interested in for themselves, but I appreciate Canon trying to put us in the picture of the way they are thinking.

Phileas Fogg said:

This whole thread is about speculation, however speculation has in
the past proven at times to be correct. The thread is not meant to
be anything serious, it's just fun banter of ifs and maybes. Time
will unfold to show what and where anyone of us may be correct.

Michael Friedman said:

everyone here is either just guessing or posting their own "wish
list."

The fact is that only Canon knows their future marketing plans, and
they're not about to tell us.

I'd say, though, that a lot may depend on how many 5Ds they
actually sell.

-Michael

Click to expand...

--
visit my photo gallary of images from my 10D

http://phileas.fotopic.net/c258181.html

Click to expand...

--
Regards,
DaveMart
Please see profile for equipment

David Martin said:

Please see my reply earlier in the thread, Unfortunately I made
typo, and I meant to write that I thought the next 20D model might
be 1.3, not FF.

Click to expand...

It won't be 1.3x either. If I'm wrong I'll say so but it wouldn't make any sense since Canon has introduced a number of EF-S lenses; it makes sense for there to be 2 bodies for them to mate to.

Mark

I doubt it. Why would Canon be trying to increase the size of the average sensor when smaller is cheaper and in most cases just as good? The only reason I can think of for such a statement is if they believe that as the sensors approach the 35mm film resolution of 17MP or so, it won't be possible to fit that many pixels on a reliable APS sized sensor. That would seem to be both unlikely and unpredictable.

There is an increasing number of photographers who actually appreciate the virtues of the APS sensor and wouldn't trade up to a FF even if it was offered for free. I am one, I like my 70-200mm f2.8 being the equivalent of a 300mm at the long end. I like the camera being relatively small and lightweight.

Sure, Canon might increase the number of FF cameras as the technology allows them to penetrate lower into the market, but they'd be making a big mistake if they started to replace some of the current APS choices with FF.

All I think will happen is that there will be more choices, with overlapping FF and APS SLRs in the middle of the SLR market, with consumers free to decide what they want, rather than the manufacturers trying to tell us waht we want.