Why? Because it looks like the thinking of a hard-headed camera
company with a clear-eyed view of the professional photo
marketplace, rather than looking like the dreams of ardent photo
hobbyists.
The big market for portable pro digital cameras right now is news
and sports. That's why Kodak first, then Nikon, went straight after
that market. Countless mid-sized newspapers have dropped $300,000+
on digital photo equipment in the past 18 months and there are
hundreds, maybe thousands, more poised to do it in the next 12-24
months. The accountants are making 'em do it; they earn all that
money back in less than three years on film and chemical cost
savings.
That also happens to be the market segment in which Canon spent the
entire decade of the nineties, and tens of millions of dollars,
trying to break Nikon's 25-year dominance. (And Canon was
remarkably successful doing that.) You can be certain that Canon
has looked at the D1's success in that market with alarm.
At this point, it doesn't seem possible to build a single digital
camera that fits well the needs of the news and sports guys and
also the high-resolution crowd (be they documentary, magazine
editorial, stock, wedding and portrait, advertising and commercial
etc. shooters.) Kodak and, now, Nikon, two decent high-tech
companies it seems to me, both found it necessary to make two
separate cameras for those varying needs. Seems very likely that
Canon will end up doing the same.
So what is a company in Canon's position gonna' do, given that set
of facts? Pour their resources into building a camera for the
sports and news crowd first and worry about the high resolution
folks later. It's the only decision that makes business sense.
An interesting sidelight to all this, in my view, is that Kodak and
Nikon (and, obviously, Canon will replace Kodak in this equation
pretty soon) are, with their 6mp+ cameras, edging into the
territory ruled by Hasselblad and Mamiya lo' these past thirty
years. I think the medium format brands have much to fear from 6-8
megapixel portable "35mm-like" digital cameras. If the resolution
on these cameras is good enough -- and it looks like it will be --
there's no reason to keep your Hasselblad system (for what?
interchangeable film backs? Polaroid proofing?)
Just my shout from the wilderness.
EH
The new Canon SLR is going to be a 4MP camera, 9fps, approximately
$5000, and should start shipping in October/November.
--
Jef